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| MLS's Bill Bellichek? (Nah, and thankfully.) |
Can the San Jose Earthquakes win this? Of course, they can.
Is that likely?
The only argument they have for “yes” is that big, lonely win versus DC United. Bet the longest outdoor bar in America rocked that night…
To the game at hand…
San Jose Earthquakes
3-6-1, 10 pts., 20 gf, 19 ga (+1), home 2-3-1, away 1-3-0
Last…6, 7, 8 Results: LLLTWLLL
Strength/Location of Schedule
v MIN (0-1 L); v COL (1-2 L); @ CLT (1-4 L); v SEA (1-1 D); v DC (6-1 W); @ LAFC (1-2 L); v SKC (3-5 L); @ CLB (1-2 L)
Outside some blips that even their fans have forgotten, the Earthquakes have been terrible since 2012. A season that started with two lopsided wins and some too-soon, “say, is this a little Bruce Arena magic?” (pleading guilty, with reasons of lack of data and a need to fill copy) has been answered with, “nah, still San Jose.” The defense trots a mere three goals behind in the backwards race for the most goals allowed – though, in fairness, that field is surprisingly crowded – and that has killed them, but a cast of once-greats on a revival package tour has them hanging in MLS’s Western Conference at a lofty…11th. On the plus side, they’re just three points behind a Seattle team that has lost Jordan Morris for a chunky chunk of 2025.
Arena has stuck with the 3-5-2 over the past three games (a reliable example, probably?). The constants include the three players The San Jose Organization gambled on – Cristian Espinoza, Josef Martinez and Cristian Arango, with the latter in the front two and the former covering (most of) the right – and a reasonably steady cast of players that hint at why San Jose didn’t stick around at the top the West. They’re better with Daniel in the net (especially after a fragile performance by Earl Edwards, Jr. versus Sporting KC) and have started Dave Romney (always) and Rodrigues (a little less so) in the three at the back. I have a vague sense Bruno Wilson made them better, but he hasn’t played since DC, though, for what it’s worth, rookie Max Floriani filled in at Columbus last week and looked all right. Bruce hasn’t settled the midfield, cycling variously among Ian Harkes, Nico Tsakiris, Beau Leroux, Mark-Anthony Kaye, and, wow, Ahmal Pellegrino – who I’d guess Arena tried as a playmaker – but it mostly makes them porous through midfield*. Vitor Costa de Brito has started opposite Espinoza on the left in every game I looked at, but that’s recent (he has just 346 minutes on the season), so maybe that side improves. All that aside, there’s a very basic method to whatever damage San Jose can inflict, and I’ll get to that after confessing sources.
The Body of Research
I’d already watched, and provided notes on San Jose’s gutting 3-5 loss at home versus SKC. I also circled back to the highlights of their home demolition of DC United – which I’d encourage every Timbers fan with the stomach to watch the worst-case scenario (do it…wuss) – but, in the interest of watching something more recent and less one-sided, I spent a fair chunk of time (minutes 20-35(ish) and 50-70(ish)) of last weekend’s loss at Columbus. Based on all of that, let’s…
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| Wait. What if the lady IS the tiger? |
1) The Greatest Priority
Josef Martinez looks closer to his best than he has since that tragic injury – see, Exhibit A and Exhibit B – and most of what I watched tells me that San Jose likes isolating either Martinez or Arango against (or away from, obviously) a center back and then playing off another, and whomever can catch up, from there. It’s not quite Route 1, but it’s pretty damn direct and takes as many touches. Timbers defenders should expect early balls over the top and prioritize not getting beat on the cheap. More to the point, and regardless of how it gets there, the surest way to give up goals, and therefore lose points and/or the game, is giving either Arango or Martinez time literally anywhere inside the 18.
2) Discard the Outliers
On the narrow evidence I have, I’d argue that DC’s shambolic defense gifted San Jose that blowout and that an *over-extended “play-to-win” approach led to a five-minute fall-apart versus SK – i.e., Arena took chances to get a win and the game got away before he could correct course. With those games out of the sample, San Jose’s goals for/against numbers probably paint a truer portrait – i.e., they would have 11 goals scored and 13 goals allowed. Those numbers feel like a better fit based on what I’ve watched, so, so long as the Timbers keep a lid on stupid mistakes (see No. 1), they a team that scores and defends on either side of okay. I suspect they’ll be tougher to beat than those 19 goals allowed suggest, but they’ve also proved beatable more often than not, so why not play like it?
That’s all I got for this one. Portland has a solid chance to win this game and I honestly don’t think the whole thing gets more complicated than they will or they won’t. San Jose doesn’t have any secret sleeves they can yank surprises out of – e.g., a new signing, or even Hernan Lopez coming back (not that he ever lit up the league) – so the only question to ask is how the Timbers, as I see it (and clearly), makes good on being the better team on Saturday. We shall see, we shall see…
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