The Portland Timbers, the Playoff Race & Some Soft Motherfucking Schedules

A thing to be avoided. Focus.

A post about FC Cincinnati’s end-run went up yesterday and, while this post will follow the same basic format (see below), the Portland Timbers are playing for different stakes. That doesn’t make the stakes lower, mind you, and goddammit, because the failing to win the Supporters' Shield isn’t so existentially different from, say, getting the results that punch a team’s to hosting playoff games instead of the sporting equivalent of crashing on some other team’s couch. It's just yes/no to a different question.

I’ll get to the question of the Timbers’ chances of hosting down below, but, to flesh out the notes on the format: while I provide a lot of details on each team – e.g., their record over the past 10 games and their remaining schedule, mainly – I’m neither equipped to nor interested in strapping in for much analysis; related, while I acknowledge trades that have happened since the beginning of August, only a handful of the names rang a bell, so I don’t have much to offer beyond their name and (loose) position on the field. The notes I have will focus on past results, players that seem worth noting, and some informed speculation on the games they have left – and they won’t be lengthy or linky (i.e., don’t expect a lot of links).

And, after that historically short preamble (who knew it just took getting older), let’s kick off this post with the sixth-in-the-West…

6th) Portland Timbers
10-9-7, 26 games played; 37 pts., 35 gf, 37 ga (-2); home 6-3-5, away 4-6-2
Last 10 Results: WDLWLLDWLL (3-5-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v STL (2-1 W); v SJ (1-1 D); @ TFC (0-3 L); v NE (2-1 W); @ STL (1-2 L); v RSL (0-1 L); v MIN (1-1 D); @ LAFC (1-0 W); @ FCD (0-2 L); v CIN (2-3 L)
Remaining Schedule: @ SD; @ MIN; v RBNY; @ HOU; @ VAN; v FCD; @ SEA; v SD
Additions: Kristoffer Velde (F); Felipe Carballo (M); Matias Rojas (M)
Losses: Santiago Moreno (M)

To wrap up the new players quickly as you like, I’m excited about Velde (please resolve all of our attacking incoherence, thank you), but withholding judgment on Carballo and Rojas. As noted in the post on Cincy’s slim win over the Timbers, my primary hope is that the new guys settle in quickly and that Portland’s style of play follows suit.

Facing Up to the Stretch Run for FC Cincinnati: I've Seen Worse

De nada.

The concept is simple, maybe even pointless. [Ed. – Don’t listen to him.] The post below has the simple, direct purpose of looking backwards and forward for every Major League Soccer team that “poses a threat” to FC Cincinnati’s chances in the very much alive Supporters’ Shield race. As noted/argued in my previous post on Cincy’s win over the (full disclosure, and) my Portland Timbers, Cincy has succeeded in picking up points whilst surviving injury – and to the tune of second/tied on points for Shield-Quest with San Diego (probably?) FC.

Not every team below necessarily belongs in the Shield conversation, but I opted to take a wide view for this post. While I provide a lot of details on each team – e.g., their record over the past 10 games and their remaining schedule, mainly – I’m neither equipped to nor interested in strapping in for much analysis; related, while I acknowledge trades that have happened since the beginning of August, only a handful of the names rang a bell, so I don’t have much to offer beyond their name and the letter that connotes their position on the field. The notes I have will focus on past results, players that seem worth noting, and some informed speculation on the games they have left – and they won’t be lengthy or linky.

As a quick, hopeful editorial note: I intend (emphasis on intend) to spend the rest of the season focusing on the teams either closest to FC Cincinnati, or the one that did something on the past weekend that feels worth flagging. Caveat lector: that’s more concept-in-progress than work-in-progress.

Think that’s everything. Let’s start by framing…

1st) FC Cincinnati
16-7-4, 27 games played; 52 pts., 42 gf, 34 ga (+8); home 7-3-2, away 9-4-2
Last 10 Results: WWWWLWWDLW (7-2-1)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ NE (1-0 W); @ MTL (3-1 W); @ ORL (2-1 W); v CHI (2-1 W); v CLB (2-4 L); v MIA (3-0 W); @ RSL (1-0 W); @ MIA (0-0 D); v CLT (0-1 L); @ POR (3-2 W)
Remaining Schedule: v NYC; v PHI, v NSH; @ LAG; v ORL; @ RBNY; v MTL
Additions: Ayoub Jabbari (F); Samuel Gidi (M)
Losses: DeAndre Yedlin

Don’t love the Yedlin trade in the here and now – though, to be clear, I’m open to embracing whatever value it ultimately provides – and hope it doesn’t bite ‘em. Ayoub Jabbari and Samuel Gidi are names I have read on the internet. Obligatory “hope they’re good,” and…moving on…

Portland Timbers 2-3 FC Cincinnati: Going (Too) Deep on What Is Likely a Hiccup

I wish they'd stop too, my dude.

I had a working theory about both the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati going into Saturday’s game, to wit, Cincinnati (generally) starts strong, then throttles back and invites the opposition back in, while the Timbers like to take their sweet-ass time to get going, sometimes to where they dig themselves into a hole they can’t climb out of.

When Saturday’s 2-3 home loss for the Timbers generally supported both sides of the theory – i.e., Cincy rolled to a 3-0 lead and looked like a fair bet to run away with it before Portland clawed back two goals and piled on enough shots for an equalizer or more – and that got me all a-flutter about confirming the theory, so I circled back to mine both teams’ recent schedules (Cincy's, Portland's) for circumstantial evidence. About 40 minutes of working that mine yielded some data to support theory. It also turned up enough Fool’s gold to recommend sealing up the mine, paying off the creditors, and walking away. Still, to lay some of it out there…

I worked with a 20-game sample for both teams, including Leagues Cup results, while excluding those from the U.S. Open Cup (you ask why, I ask why not?). That period extends back to around the beginning of May, over which time both Cincy and Portland have fared well enough, 10-6-4 and 8-7-5, respectively. The difference is there, of course, and grows a bit more once you dig in.

The Timbers conceded first eleven times total: Portland failed to score in five of those games and, naturally, lost them; of the six other games when they conceded first, the Timbers rallied to win two of them (v COL, v STL), came back to draw two (v SEA, v MIN) and lost the other two (@ SJ, v CIN). The sum of that yields a 2-7-2 record when conceding first across all games and, for some, an upset tummy. That leaves Portland with a 6-0-3 record when scoring first (or sometimes not scoring at all, e.g., the goal-free turd at RSL), a vast improvement, of course, but weighing eleven games against nine comes perilously close to a wash, so, moving on...

Cincy has scored first over 13 of their past 20 games, four of them wins when they blanked the opposition, nine of them games when they scored first. They held on to win most of those games – only a sociopath sneers at a 6-1-2 record – but it did lead to dropped points (3-3 v Dallas), one searing loss (2-4 home loss to Columbus) and arguably some nervy finishes - e.g., the 3-2 “road” win over Monterrey in Leagues Cup and the nail-gnawing end to Saturday’s game. The rest played out as 2-1 wins over Austin, Orlando and Chicago, hardly the end of the world, but breathing easier feels nice too.

Portland Timbers v FC Cincinnati: A Preview/Parenting Crisis

Which is which? And can you trust what I tell you?

To make one thing clear from the top, I may or may not have two children*, but there’s no question as to which is the favorite. Even with the past three and two-thirds season asking one of them, “why can’t you be more like your brother?,” the Portland Timbers will always be my team and FC Cincinnati my sincerely cherished side-piece. [Psst...I love you, girl! I’ll leave her for you, I swear.]

(* With how often I’ve neglected Cincy, through both good times and bad, I have, at most, a fingernail’s hold on neglectful divorced dad going through…just all of it.)

That said, rooting for both kids makes plenty of sense given the state of play. They both need the win – Cincinnati to keep up with the Supporters’ Shield race/melee, the Timbers to keep in touching distance of hosting a first-round playoff game (or, worst case, just making the damn playoffs) – so any and all results serve a purpose one way or the other…and yet, and as much as I hate to ask, things have been going really well for Cincinnati lately – I know; no, I know – but it has just been so, so long since the Timbers, y’know, had a good season. I’m not asking Cincinnati to let them win, I’m just making things emotionally complicated the way a parent does when, deep down, he’s absolutely asking Cincinnati to let Portland win, but not in a fake way, because I still want them to feel good. Wow, did it feel good to get that off my chest! (Father of two, going great…)

Moving on…

Per the title, the rest of this post throws out the first five coherent thoughts I’d tell fans of one team about the other. My list won’t be everyone’s list, so I’d (literally) love to have anyone who finds this toss in their own thoughts in either the comments or to the skeets when this goes up on Bluesky…somewhat related, I stopped checking Reddit, almost certainly from failure to match the intensity of, oh, 75% of the posters. That’s to say, I miss some chatter, just not that chatter.

Right, like they do in MLS, let’s kick this off with the home team.

FC Dallas 2-0 Portland Timbers: Another Bad Thing Happened in Texas

My personal wingman broods...

The vibes have been good around the Portland Timbers’ over the past few weeks. The dance between player and ball looked more natural and the defense tightened into a none (or few) shall pass knot. It felt real enough, but the idea that some of that improvement came from playing rusty Liga MX teams bubbled under every Leagues Cup broadcast.

In other words, I was looking forward to seeing Portland get back to the MLS regular season. I really was.

FC Dallas 2-0 Portland Timbers
The Game, Still More Briefly
Portland gave up two shit goals – though the first was worst of the two by far(, Mr. Crepeau…has even one of his haters thought to call him "Maximum Crapeau”?) – and didn’t do shit on the attacking end. To be clear, I could end this section right here and still have everything pretty much covered, but, to continue…

Pointing to what went wrong on the defensive side is easy as Pin the Tail on the Donkey without the blindfold, but untangling why every Timber appeared to get the vapors on entering the attacking third takes a little picking. Despite the reported (fucking crazy) heat, Portland’s players shifted around more than usual when they had the ball, not necessarily a well-oiled machine, but at least it moved. Dallas countered by either or both ceding possession (to the tune of 40/60) or/and dropping the defensive line deep enough that it always had the game in front of it. On a better day, maybe Portland finds one another and, from there, some decent openings; on Saturday, too many players looked like they wanted to take back every pass immediately after making it. Their best moments came when Antony broke from the depths to the surface, but that only happened (I think) twice, and David Da Costa taking a crack at finishing off one of those, then firing a strong shot from a fair distance (both probably made the highlight reel, but I'm way, way behind; also, a clip of the second goal; just terrible marking, see?).

That pretty well covers the attack Dallas had to “survive” and they just had to make the most of their shots from there. Without claiming expertise on the subject, this struck me as a typical FC Dallas performance – i.e., they don’t create a lot of chances and rely on their defense to see that the opposition doesn’t get many more. Last night’s three points lifts them closer to the play-in spots, but that hasn’t served them so good in 2025; 11th in still 11th. They do have some real quality pieces – e.g., Petar Musa’s a damn good forward (and would thrive on a better team) and Sebastien Ibeagha has aged well – and Logan Farrington, who I’ve seen play well, made a strong argument for The Man Behind The Man of the Match (The Vice-Man of the Match? The Wingman of the Match?), but they don’t have the same quality of player in every position and, as follows, feel incomplete as a team.

Club America 1-1 Portland Timbers, Then a "Loss": Penalties & Positivity

Make that pass again, Felipe. I'm waiting...

Take it. Take your meaningless, non-regulation, asterisk-weighted win, Club America. It means nothing, not even to you.

Oh, and stopping the game to put a lid on “discriminatory chants”? Sign me up for an all-day pass on that shit…and if I could come up with a functional way to punish a team for one of their shithead fans pointing a laser into a goalkeeper’s eyes during a penalty shootout, I’d do it tomorrow. Too easy to game, sadly. At any rate…

Club America 1-1 Portland Timbers; 5-(maybe)4 in penalties
About the Game
I can’t remember the last time I saw the Timbers counter-punch so cleanly. David Da Costa clipped a ripe peach of an assist off the outside of his right to send Ariel Lassiter clean through for Portland’s opening goal, but Felipe Mora’s chest-trap, reverse through-ball to Juan David Mosquera set my nether to fluttering and they still haven’t calmed down (might be in here). Sure, Mosquera pissed it away with a touch long enough for the record books, but the sweet, sweet memory still titillates.

America took over the rest of the first half and, factually, had more to show for it than I recalled (e.g., 7 shots, 2 on goal, with healthy side of corner kicks), but the Timbers defended stoutly and well (hold that thought) – up to and including Jimer Fory retreating behind an extended Maxime Crepeau to clip a(n offside) shot clear (also, remember him foundly, for…)

I didn’t see Fory’s first yellow card – heard it was something about dissent, and there’s this whole chicken-egg thesis waiting to be written about refs and their thin skin – but no decent ref gives a second yellow for the foul he committed, and yet…the Aristocrats! When the theretofore largely hapless America scored an equalizer off their 19th nervous corner (reference/gotta step there, Mr. Felipe Mora), all signs pointed to the wheels spinning off into outer orbit for the Timbers. Without dipping too far to over-determining, I credit Phil Neville for making a couple smart subs for breaking from depth – Kevin Kelsy for a reasonably overwhelmed Mora and Antony for a drifting Da Costa – and it just took a combination of holding on defensively and scaring America off throwing every player, plus a couple asshole fans, to carry the Timbers to one-third of a loss, instead of a full one.

Portland Timbers 1-0 Queretaro FC: The Joy of Feeling Things & Other Notes

Leagues Cup, in human form.

I don’t know much about Love Island, but I am familiar with the thing where the show throws a bunch of hot new singles into the mix.

That approximates my annual experience with Leagues Cup: a bunch of strangers dropping in to the familiar, interpretable world of the MLS regular season, thereby detouring into some wacky side quest. And it only means something to the team/couple that walks away with the trophy, whether in metal or human form.

Portland Timbers 1-0 Queretaro FC
About the Game
When halftime rolled around and the broadcast got to showing the first half highlights, they started with a wildly overcooked cross that capped one of the rare competent attacking sequences managed by either team. They had a goal to show, of course – a bumbler scored by Cristhian Paredes through a thicket of flailing legs and falling bodies (and that link may or may not take you to it) – but the final stats speak to how little happened before and after. Jonathan Perlaza got sent off for a foul and a fit just before the halftime whistle and that left nothing but the struggle to stay awake through the second half.

Near as I can tell, Queretaro came to defend and without any form of an actionable Plan B. The 0.3 xG awarded to them in the official line matches the eye test…wish I could say the same about the 1.6 they handed Portland, because that would have hit like Red Bull and Everclear compared to what I watched.

That’s all I have on the game and I’ve already exhausted my knowledge of Queretaro. Now, to entertain some, but not all of the thoughts I had as I watched. [Ed. – The Plan is to pare the thoughts down to five for all future posts – and the length of the posts along with ‘em.]