FC Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers: The Big Picture Meets the Little One

Her soul's somewhere in there...

As anyone who tracks this blog or follows me on Bluesky knows, I’ve made a mantra of the argument that regular season games don’t matter in Major League Soccer. Today, I’d like to amend and extend that case into something more clarifying.

To be clear, the original argument still holds up. Any team that gets its shit together far enough ahead of Decision Day has the potential to get on a streak, get into the MLS Cup Playoffs and make some noise, maybe even snatch MLS Cup from a team that, based on their performance over the entire season, deserves it a little more. Thank gods the Supporters’ Shield still rewards that, no matter how little people value it.

The amendment/extension piece comes from something else, something that only stepped out of the background over the Portland Timbers’ past several struggling seasons. Upon reviewing their results, I started to notice the only teams Portland could beat were the ones either below the playoff line, or those slipping toward the wrong side of it. That is, the Timbers could only beat actually bad teams, or teams in bad form. Any time Portland played a team with even a little more than half of anything going on, two points or all three slipped away. I think my obsession with tracking results came before that, but this cemented the value of the exercise for me.

It’s not a perfect scale by any means. A crap team can beat a good team on any given day, of course, and even the best team can crap the bed. The thing to watch for is the persistence of the phenomenon – i.e., any season that sees your team reliably lose to the good teams deep enough into the regular season is a good one to give up on. It doesn’t mean they won’t make the playoffs – see the Timbers’ 2024 and 2025 seasons (on second thought, only look at the searing dead end of 2024 if you’re one of those freaks that watches replays of compound fractures…sicko) – it just means they will not make the final, they probably won’t even make the quarters, and they’re just the fodder on some other teams’ path to glory.

MLS Week 23 Review + a Wee St. Louis Scouter: May the Good Vibez Continue

A bit too on the nose...

So…fun fact: I took a longer look at three of the games I said “did not interest me” for the most American reason of all: I don’t like draws because they don’t give me much to work with. I am bound neither rules nor man…

I wouldn’t call MLS Week 23 “bad,” not in the formal sense, but the ground under my feet feels firm enough for me to argue that not a lot happened. Yeah, yeah, name an MLS Match Day when that doesn’t hold, but my feet won’t take one step off this soapbox till I’ve said my piece. That’s not the biggest deal, not with 11 games still remaining for most teams, but the gap between the good, the mid, and the irrelevant tightened a little on Saturday. For reference, the relevant lines break as follows, and in both conferences: 1-5 = good; 6-9 = mid; the rest = bad. That’s right, I said it. I’ll speak better of the teams below when they do better week in and out.

Speaking of, nearly every team the league has a midweek game this week. To paraphrase the inimitable, yet much-mocked Hudsucker Proxy, your future is now.

With that, it’s time to kick around last weekend’s results. As with every week’s edition (which have always existed and been reliably delivered since 1996, no, I have not shut down this blog three to four times), I value some results more than others and thus spend more time on them. In a reverse of last week’s post, this week’s post starts with those results, then speed-runs the rest. In the order I looked at ‘em…

Columbus Crew 3-0 Colorado Rapids
The prime directive here was to determine whether or not Colorado, of the now 2-9-1 road record, could win any road game. The highlights showed a team drowning over the opening 30 minutes and, despite spending most of the game only 0-1 down, never really recovering. The Rapids caught up on the numbers side before the final whistle, if just a little, but a Columbus team that hadn’t won in five games padded the final score smartly courtesy of goal contributions by new kid, Gonzalo Tapia; his tricky-shit goal, Columbus’ second, for reference. As for the Rapids, their home record (8-3-0 currently) looks like a good bet to get them to the playoffs, but all signs point to them needing to host if they want to go anywhere.

MLS Week 22 Review & a Minnesota United FC Scouter, Just in Reverse.

Sweep the leg. Every time.

This post tested a new model for a Major League Soccer league-wide post and the experiment already failed. Not so much for anything specific to the post, but because it was only possible in a week where my schedule fit together just so. My schedule fits together just so, at most, quarterly.

At any rate, the concept carries forward what I did with the most recent level set – i.e., comment vaguely about how well each of the teams in MLS presents at this point in the season – and the content is still heavily results driven. To steal a concept from the players we all cheer on, I think it’s best to take things one game at a time as opposed to checking boxes you’re not even sure will appear in two weeks’ time. Where the level set centers the notes on teams, this post centers on results. Well, some results. And maybe not one that relates to your team.

Not all results are interesting, a statement that becomes truer as the season rushes to its end. For me, that continues all the way to bitter end, aka, Decision Day – i.e., what does getting a certain semi-fortunate match up in the first round of the playoffs matter when you don’t trust your team to beat anyone else? That’s a personal problem, obviously. I am the Cobra Kai coach deep down…

Back to it, I’ve grouped all of Week 22’s results (because that’s where most team are) into three groups below, as I’ll do every week (or aspire to do every week). Those are as follows:

1) Nothing to See Here, aka, the result in question tracked with reasonable expectations.

2) Noteworthy, aka, not a wild result, but something about it, whether big picture or small, felt worth flagging.

3) Surprise, Surprise, Surprise, aka, did not see that coming, might even be bit shit.

Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin FC: Outbelieved

Garfunkel, forever lingering behind...

I forgot the last time I thought xG was more or less made up, but when I look at the final stats…

Neither team needs a pat on the head that bad. Cringing over here...

I called this a must win on the usual grounds: any team with the beginning of a dream needs to take all three points from a home game against a shit road team on short rest. About that…

Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin FC
What Passes for a Match Report
I feel comfortable saying, and with minor exaggeration, that saying Austin looked better, both globally and marginally, over the first 87-ish minutes of that game covers the basics. They played the livelier game, used the ball to manage it, and held a defensive shape over 2/3 of the field that picked all the ideas out of Portland's back pockets (Paula Pomegranate Pumpernickel Penelope Paparazzi Putnam) before the Timbers could finish them. If I had to phrase the Timbers attacking posture in one word, I’d go with perplexed. A lot of nibbling at the edges for 87 minutes, basically.

Which made a problem of the fact Austin scored in the 25th minute. ‘Twas a lonely chance, an even lonelier goal, at least until the others came long, but Joseph Rosales give to Facundo Torres’ go did the trick, and Portland chased the game from there. And to the final whistle, if we’re being honest.

The Timbers equalized when Antony flicked the ball into (probably) Brendan Hines-Ike’s hand and subsequently received honors for taking the penalty (the penalty call should be somewhere in here, if not, RIOT!). I liked handing Antony the penalty kick, for what it’s worth, because why not show confidence in him so that he can regain the confidence he lost? Who doesn't love a redemption arc? Antony buried it – smartly, I might add – and Portland drew level at 1-1. Whenever the foul happened, the penalty was scored at the 89th minute. There I was, fat-thumbing my way through a clever summation of the game’s events…

…then Austin scored at the 94th minute, taking away the trash off of trash. A clean put-back on a desperate header, a fatal slip by Portland, hello, 11th place, darkness my old friend, etc.

MLS Week 20-22 Level Set, the Timbers Place in It & a Wee Austin Scouter

MLS to literally all of its teams.

With the Leagues Cup now behind every MLS team (look at that, clean sweep) and the home stretch on the horizon, I felt like I needed another level set on where teams are around the league. The dive ain’t deep: it’s about 80% looking for patterns over the past 10 games for every team in MLS and 20% “other” – so the analysis doesn’t go much further than “things are okay” or “Jesus Christ, are they okay?” Just to note it, going back 10 games in regular season play takes all the teams below back to the middle of May; a pretty big sample, in other words. Hopefully, the blurbs provided on each team will either confirm an impression, maybe even tell you something you didn’t already know.

As for organization, I decided to go with something simple as the playoffs: each MLS team is grouped below as either Quick (i.e., either above the playoff line or with a fair chance of getting over it by Decision Day) or Dead (i.e., unlikely to make the playoffs, present place in the standings notwithstanding). I went with that looser measure deliberately: some teams look a lot more like “contenders,” others the middlest of mid-table, and most will trot to the end of their season at the exact same clip, but a good run at the right time can go all the way to MLS Cup for any team that makes MLS’s open-armed playoff system, so why get out the fine-tooth comb when I run a ratty old brush through it?

Quick aside: looking at the 2026 standings with the rumored new playoff format floated by Larry(? (Harry? What’s his fuck?) Berg is a fun exercise. I understand the 2027-28 season will feature more conferences and, full disclosure, both eyes and ears glazed over when it was explained to me, but as I understand Berg’s proposed system, the “if the playoffs started today” line for 2026 would be drawn between the determinedly mid-table Red Bull New York and the (frankly) plummeting Seattle Sounders. Everyone on 26 points and above gets in, basically, so that’s eight teams from the East and twelve in the West (e.g., the LA Galaxy and everyone above them, basically, and at time of posting). Have to admit that’s not as bad as I thought, or not much worse than the present system, at least in terms of the invite list.

So, time to get into it. I’ve decided to start with the Dead – i.e., the teams I don't see making the 2026 playoffs – and then run through the Quick. Going backwards feels little more suspenseful, for some reason. But, before getting into that, and because this is a Portland Timbers blog, I’m going to start by seeing how both they and Austin FC, the team they host this weekend, weigh in the balance…plus I also wanted to pad the entry on Austin with a little scouting report.

Portland Timbers 3-1 San Diego FC: The Timbers Go Over the Top

The real caption: "Great Moments in Action History."

No clever preamble for this one. Just started writing and let it go where it went.

Portland Timbers 3-1 San Diego FC
A Match Report
Any fans of arm-wrestling tuning in? Even non-fans are familiar with the way one wrestler (“Wrestler One”) will push the opponent’s (aka, “Wrestler Two’s”) arm closer and closer to the Pad of Defeat, only for Wrestler Two to push out of it and flip Wrestler One’s arm closer to the opposite Pad of Defeat. Portland thrived tonight in the Wrestler Two role. San Diego methodically pushed the ball forward, compacting the Timbers in their defensive third and, time and again, Portland kicked out from under the weight of San Diego’s pressure and turned the tables. The trick worked well enough that San Diego forgot how to effectively apply the pressure little by little as the game wore on.

Know what I like best about the chronology? 23 minutes separated Portland’s second goal from its first and 17 more minutes separated the third goal from the second. This wasn’t a case of San Diego losing its shit over a 5-10 minute stretch; it was Portland finding different ways to wrest the game out of San Diego’s poised control (in the early bits, at least) and, yeah, pretty much wreck them at the other end.

Also, what goals! Kristoffer Velde had the honor of laying the first blow to San Diego’s carefully-constructed game-plan. Portland slipped behind San Diego’s midfield and, with the field open ahead of them, Cole Bassett (looking fresher! or more grounded?) received a pass from Velde that slipped it back to him with a reverse pass that left him running free and nekkid toward goal. All Velde had to do was belt it home from 25 yards (or tharabouts) out. Velde also keyed up Portland’s second goal when, taking advantage of a scrambled and dizzy San Diego defense, he played Jimer Fory around their last (real narrow) fullback to the top of the wee penalty area; Fory’s cross teed up Ariel Lassiter for the soccer-dunk (aka, tap-in). Last but not least, as well as Velde (again) did to push San Diego’s left to their end-line, David Da Costa still had plenty to do, up to and including, pulling back for a little more space, inspiring the lone defender near him to sit down, and curling the ball around the goalkeeper, an invisible pony only he could see and who was cheering for him this whole time. Portland scored three beautiful goals, basically, where two would have been ample. Feeling a little spoiled and loving it....

Club America 3-1 Portland Timbers: The Timbers Played All Right and Fucked Up Twice

Keep smoldering, king.

It wasn’t so bad, honestly. It just wasn’t what was needed.

Based on the views on the last post, a lot of people have done the sensible thing and gone on vacation. For the rest you schlubs, enjoy these notes from another schlub.

Club America 3-1 Portland Timbers
America and Timbers treated fans to a lively one. For me, the eye test and the final stats give a truer impression of the game as it played out on the field than the final score. Portland didn’t create a wealth of chances (ten total, four on goal), but they had reasonable chances to go ahead after cancelling America’s (genuinely impressive) opening goal and they had chances to equalize, if admittedly fewer, after America got their noses ahead a second time. To break things down a little…

The answer to the question, how good was Brian Rodriguez’s free kick(?), was look on the Ball Kid's face that you see just off frame in the fourth(?) replay on the goal. The Timbers answered mere minutes later through Kristoffer Velde, who literally sat an America defender on his ass (Israel Reyes?) after picking off ‘keeper Rodolfo Cota’s half-panicked outlet (and what did all y’all think of his goal celebration?). The two teams slogged toe-to-toe from that point to America’s go-ahead goal in the second half. Passes zipped between players for both, with defenders and midfielders snapping at everything within reach. Portland found a couple chances on set pieces (someone tell Cole Bassett to put his foot through the damn ball), while America kept Portland’s defense honest from range. Good chances, in other words, but nothing to hint at immediate success or demise.

Rodriguez teed up the game winner in the 63rd minute when a couple bobbles off defended balls gave him a path inside; his shot (another good ‘un) caromed off the post to the feet Isaias Violante, who punched home the goal near post. While that goal didn’t break Portland’s back, the distance between them and America's goal yawned ever wider as the minutes ticked away. Jack Cassidy (#RIP) threw in a couple subs – fewer than I’d like and later – but neither Antony nor Vincent Janssen came in to great effect (however, hold that thought).

Portland Timbers 5-2 Club Peng...Puebla: (Hot) Summertime Rolls

It's okay, man. The view's groovy up here!

This will be short. I mean it this time. Stop it. Don’t look at me like that.

Watching the Portland Timbers lately has had the feeling of Wile E. Coyote looking down after running off the cliff and seeing nothing to hold him up. And yet he does not fall.

Getting into it…

Portland Timbers 5-2 Club Puebla
The Game, Very Briefly
I’d argue Puebla ran the opening 30 minutes, maybe even dominated the opening 20, even with Ariel Lassiter scoring a rare early one by finishing off Kristoffer Velde's punishment of Puebla's loose defense. Puebla didn't take long to equalize on a tap-in by Eduardo Mustre when the sum of Portland’s left lost equilibrium and Alex Bonetig sat out the play. They shelled the Timbers’ area from the same side around the 28th minute, pressing a sustained attack better than Portland would manage until…I’d say the 38th minute. Once David Da Costa’s tap-dance poke flicked the ball past Ricardo Gutierrez for the Timbers’ third goal, the game ended both in fact and spirit.

Per the dictates of math, Portland scored one goal in between all that – on Cole Bassett glancing home the go-ahead goal after getting ahead of Puebla's entire defense – but Da Costa’s goal put a stamp on the game the other two merely suggested. Puebla spent the opening 25 minutes (at least) coursing through and around Portland’s defensive shape, only for the Timbers to break out – through Velde most often, at least early – and score goals. Da Costa’s goal stood up the argument that anything Puebla could do in Portland’s end ultimately wouldn’t matter. Once Puebla’s players had the space behind them in their minds every time they passed the ball, the wheels came off.

Seattle Sounders 1-5 Portland Timbers: On the Right Side of a Snowball...

A peace I hope we all find...

Maybe there’ll be some benefit to spitting this out same day in my older years…

Let’s move this fast and keep it tight, people. The Portland Timbers kicked off their return to regular season action by kicking the holy shit and ever-lovin' stuffin' out of the Seattle Sounders. The 5-1 win felt like dunking by the end, even if the numbers pad the Sounders’ pain a little.

The Game, Very Briefly
It opened as I expected, with Seattle worked to get their attacking patterns going and they collapsed space effectively every time the Timbers worked the ball wide. The Sounders probably hit their high in those early moments (the five-minute interval agrees; see, the numbers), but their grasp on the game slipped away little by little. It started with the Timbers cutting out passes, disrupting Seattle’s inlets into he attacking third, but their game plan really got upended when…well, the Sounders got punched in the mouth.

The game turned from the second Jimer Fory floated that leading cross to Kevin Kelsy sprinting between two defenders to score Portland's first goal (wait for it, and so much of it). It took a double save, first by James “Canuck Wall” Pantemis, then by Kamal “Maybe Wily Veteran’s His Game?” Miller to hold Portland’s lead (has to be in here somewhere, maybe even here?), but Seattle never really recovered before the half. After the half? Shit broke all the way down…

I’ve used the phrase “five-minute fuck up” in the past and (with allowances for the fact all this unfolded in more than five minutes) Seattle’s defense served up a peach of an example tonight. First, their defense got beat at the back post – twice! – which allowed Miller to keep up the heroics. Four minutes later (still within bounds), Cole Bassett started and finished a goal off transition courtesy of a David Da Costa pushing then snapping across Seattle’s backline. Three minutes later (shit!), Kelsy bullied in a goal to complete his brace. That had the Timbers up 4-0 and rolling all. the. way. down the river.

A Seattle Sounders L'il Scouter & Portland v the Dregs of the West

Step One: less of this.

The Eastern Conference Re-Entry post took a pretty linear shape (and thanks to anyone who read it!), but, for reasons of local rooting interests, this Western Conference Re-Entry post will take a different shape.

It’ll start with a brief Scouting Report on the Portland Timbers’ next, dreaded opponent, the Seattle Sounders (aka, the Spoiled Rich Kids of the Middle North, aka, Cascadia’s Somehow Successful Fail-Sons). The section that follows expands on the template for the Eastern Conference Re-Entry by flagging all the teams within reach of the Timbers in the standings, whether above or below, and the post ends with a speed-run through the teams in the top half of the Western Conference table. With Portland closer to the bottom of the table than the top, that last section will be reduced or cut entirely as time allows…fwiw, I don’t know if it’s going to happen anymore than you do. Every day is a surprise/miracle. Even if neither are very good. [UPDATE: That section was cut, notes on the top eight in the West are written into the record indirectly and by suggestion.] Ahem. Getting on with it!

Before looking forward, I wanted to link to the long look back I posted right before MLS turned off the lights for the World Cup break. It was fairly straightforward, content-wise - just listing all the players and what I think of their contributions, talents and individual potential; you won’t see many rays of sunshine in there, because the sun struggles to get all the way down to 13th place. With that in mind (including the post), I wanted to start with a glance ahead to the next four games – e.g., at Seattle, v Dallas, v RSL, v Seattle - regardless of who’s lining up and giving direction to the starting eleven. (At time of posting, that is still interim head coach, Jack Cassidy), but Jeremy Peterman posted a quicky to Bluesky saying that the Timbers may report a new head coach this week.) The two things I liked to see:

1) Coherence in the Attack
Too often under Phil’s “guidance,” the Timbers functioned as a competitively dysfunctional improv troupe – i.e., too little “yes-anding” and too much “fuck it, guess I’ll just kick the ball.” Seeing the attacking pieces coordinate as they move on Thursday would be enough to make me coin the word "delief" (a delight meets a relief).

MLS Eastern Conference Re-Entry Cheat-Sheet: Your (Near) Post-World Cup Dose of Prevagen

From a movie/show called "State of Play," apparently.

With Major League Soccer returning to action this week (Eeeee!!!!), I put a little time into reorienting myself to what the big-picture state of play looked like before the World Cup break. So, with my results tracking Word doc as a guide (because MLSSoccer.com refuses to keep the Form Guide in full-season working condition), some sorting on the still-functioning (for now) Stats page, and a look ahead at what every team in MLS’s Eastern Conference has between today and (SIIIIGGHH!) the Leagues Cup in the first half of August, I put together brief ‘n’ loose notes on where every team in the East stands as regular season play resumes. There’s nothing deep down there, no more links, no kicking around tactics, notes on new signings, significant departures, and so on. This is just someone whispering over your shoulder to feed you a little more intel than you get off the name tag and your memory.

In the order they…stand, um, in the standings, these are my notes. Oh, and it looks like Leagues Cup kicks off on the first week of August. 

1st Nashville SC
Matches to Leagues Cup: v ATL, v MTL, @ ORL, @ DC
Notes
Compiled a 6-2-2 record over the ten games leading into the World Cup break, comfortably second in a runaway for the top three best goal differentials in MLS (Vancouver and San Jose are the other two), plus with three attacking players posting strong numbers in Sam Surridge (9 goals), Hany Mukhtar (6 goals, 5 assists), Warren Madrigal (5 goals, 4 assists; also, who?), and Cristian Espinoza (3 goals, 8 assists), plus the league’s sole remaining undefeated home record: Nashville’s better than fine. They’re also two points above Miami in the East with a game in hand. Based on the upcoming games listed above, and barring any disasters over the break, they’re a good bet to stay up here.

2nd Inter Miami CF
Matches to Leagues Cup: v CHI, @ MTL, v CLB
Notes
Their league-leading attack – led by (sigh) Lionel Messi – keeps Miami well above water and a free-swinging Eastern Conference (fun fact: every team in the West except three worst (SKC, Austin and Portland) have better goals allowed numbers than Miami). Their home record needs work (2-1-3, with the two wins coming versus Portland (of course) and a 6-4 win over Philly that underscores the “free-swinging” descriptor above. Miami will stick near the top, even if nothing in their past 10 games says their defense will improve (20 goals allowed, and against some crap teams). One likely under-appreciated detail: the assists they’re getting from Rodrigo De Paul (7) and Telasco Segovia (8). As for the upcoming, the Chicago game has fun written all over it, but I don’t see any gimmes in that run.

San Jose Earthquakes Scouting Report: You Know What? Fuck It.

Yummy and a future worth dreaming about.

As I sit down to type this, I can’t help but wonder if there’s a point to it. The Timbers won’t play again until the middle of July (July!) and San Jose doesn’t play another regular season game until the week after. I mean, how many teams will come back after the break remade, refreshed and quite possibly smelling of peaches and mint. You say that’s silly, I say you never know. But, because I did the work…

The Basics

San Jose Earthquakes
9-3-2, 28 pts., 14 GP; 31 gf, 14 ga (+17); home 4-2-1, away 5-1-1
Last 10 Results: WWWWWWDDLL (6-2-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ VAN (1-0 W); v SD (3-0 W); @ SKC (3-1 W); @ LAFC (4-1 W); v ATX (5-1 W); @ STL (3-2 W); @ TFC (1-1 D); v VAN (1-1 D); @ SEA (2-3 L); v FCD (2-3 L);

I made the personally unsettling decision to track only the past ten games for every team in Major League Soccer (literally killing me), but for anyone who forgot the San Jose Earthquakes conceded one single goal over their first six games (versus Seattle Sounders; hold that thought). Even after the surrendered their second goal, then third, then fourth, then they allowed two after that, etc., it took to the beginning of (fucking) May for San Jose to draw its next game of 2026. In the words of the great philosopher, Gwen Stefani, that shit is bananas for the team that traded Cristian Espinoza to Nashville SC and doesn’t have any other player that would make most people’s short list for league-elite players.

When they picked up their second loss of the season at Seattle, nobody blinked because why would you? They were 10-1-0 at the time, San Jose was bound to slip up at some point, so why not again a Sounders that both started strong and beat them previously? Even that was tricky – e.g., they started a sacrificial lineup and gave up two shit goals, but the first shit goal (midfield where?) – which tied the score – came after Ousseni Bouda and Preston Judd came into the game. Judd returned the game to 2-2 with his ninth(!) goal of 2026, but Seattle scored the winner (also not good; defenders where?) after Beau Leroux and the experienced Paul Marie came in to solidify the defense. And then came last weekend versus FC Dallas...

Portland Timbers 6-0 Sporting KC: Love & Trust, Plus a Club du Foot Montreal Scouting Report

Kindly turn your attention to the little red dot...

In last week’s post, I recommended that Portland Timbers fans memory-hole the hopeless, whistle-to-whistle loss at Real Salt Lake. At the risk of pissing off, OH, everyone, I recommend that people memory-hole Portland’s Sunday-best 6-0 demolition of Sporting Kansas City. The argument for treating the SKC win like someone else’s bestest birthday ever actually makes more sense because, which of these things feels most likely to happen again: 1) Portland getting outplayed at every position but goalkeeper, or 2) the Timbers kicking rainbow sparkles out of some hapless team going for all-time Wooden Spoon?

If the Timbers roll up to Montreal on Wednesday and we see bright shimmering lights in the eastern skies, we’ll know it’s not the Aurora Borealis. It’s our boys kicking rainbow sparkles out of Club du Foot Montreal.

Needless to say, I don’t like our chances up north. I also don’t need Portland to keep this great thing rolling. All I need from them in Montreal is something between recognizable competence and three points. Per the title, this post will close with a wee Montreal Scouting Report. Before that, let’s relive the glorious thing I’m charging you all with forgetting…swear this is for your own protection.

Portland Timbers 6-0 Sporting Kansas City
What Passes for a Match Report
Even after Kristoffer Velde banged in a 6th-minute goal that was somehow equal parts unlikely and entirely on-brand, I still had no goddamn idea which way the game would ultimately goal. Speaking solely for myself, all doubts evaporated by the 26th-minute own-goal scored by that poor bastard Jacob Davis (who, just to note it, is one of several Jacobs/Jasons in SKC’s defense that I’ve seen mortally mortify himself over the first third of 2026). That one had some dark magic in it. Like a monkey’s paw curling just to give you the finger for some sin you may never have committed.

Sporting Kansas City Scouting Report & MLS Week 11 Wrap: A Parade of Weakness

So, "welcoming spirit" is a thing. 

This post ends with the Sporting Kansas City Scouting Report. For the record, (I swear) I did not do that to drag the reader through the rest of the post; skip to the bottom as the spirit moves you. It had more to do with keeping the past with the past and the future wherever it ends up. Think of it as kicking around what I know before moving on to what I think I know.

The secondary purpose comes with situating the Portland Timbers in the Western Conference before interrogating the good and bad that will come from whatever result they get against SKC. With an eye to feng shui, notes on Major League Soccer’s Eastern Conference will come first, followed by notes on the West, followed by the SKC preview. To answer the question no one asked, yes, I did abandon the idea of writing about just three games. What I can I say: restlessness makes me an unreliable narrator. With that, let’s get something out of the way:

Results I Ignored
TFC 1-1 SJ (Toronto’s burning home games on draws (5, 8 of 11 at home); San Jose will be fine)
ATL 3-1 MTL (good for Atlanta, seriously, but Montreal’s bad on the road)
PHI 0-0 NSH (Nashville will be fine; Philly’s fishing around their pants for a Wooden Spoon)
LAG 1-1 VAN (Vancouver will be fine and should stay in Vancouver, goddammit)

Moving on to…

Eastern Conference Notes
Still Nashville’s conference to lose – though I’m seeing rumors about injuries, even beyond Sam Surridge – which make the shifts below them more interesting.

Real Salt Lake 2-0 Portland Timbers: Local Man Loses Popularity Contest* (Wait for It...)

That big fucker should get you $50.

Wanting something to succeed comes with a built-in temptation to want to see the good in things. In last week’s wrap of the Portland Timbers’ win over San Diego FC, I started a thought about Portland being in a weird space after that win, plus the one versus LAFC, and just posed the obvious question – i.e., what would happen if Portland won at Real Salt Lake?

We all know that happened Saturday – EMPHATICALLY not that – but I wanted to stick with tricks of the eye for a minute. I came around on Kristoffer Velde to the point of thinking I misread my first impression; Jose Caicedo’s rep took a knock for me at Minnesota, but, being a necessary piece, I pinned my hopes on him because I have nowhere else to pin them; I keep hearing the name “Aravena” and figure it must mean something (it hasn't, not so far): players to project onto a brighter future, basically, and yet. While you’re there, stuff Cole Bassett into the frame and why not make room for David Da Costa, Jimer Fory and Alex Bonetig?

With that in your head, step back and ask yourself: did you think, believe, whatever that the Timbers would win at Real Salt Lake? I accepted the possibility they might with the enthusiasm of an eight-year-old who’s pretty sure the Tooth Fairy is bullshit, but who still wants the quarter. (Or the dollar. Seriously, what did you get from the tooth fairy?). Again, we all know what happened Saturday – i.e., there was neither tooth nor quarter when we woke, just pain– so let’s kick that around.

Real Salt Lake 2-0 Portland Timbers
What Passes for a Match Report
After re-watching (most of) the first half, the best thing I can say is that it’s not as bad as you remember it. Portland got pulled to shredding, no question, but RSL’s attacks didn’t hit often as they seemed to in real time. 18 shots with 11 on goal says otherwise (the game ended 25/15 to 11/2), of course, and the quality of the chance creation (quite good!) was always the biggest concern. Diego Luna ran rampant, both Zavier Gozo and Morgan Guilovogui ran free in acres outside Portland’s (and Jimer Fory’s) right, and Sergi Solans alternately out-wrestled and out-raced the Timbers oft-clumsy high line. James Pantemis’ thirteen saves kept the bloodbath polite, but every Portland fan with eyes sees the body and most know the state of it.

San Diego FC 1-2 Portland Timbers: A Strange Place, an RSL Scouting Report & an MLS Week 10 Review (Whew!)

Why, hello, Mr. Jackson...

I bit off more than I could chew this week, but the tardiness owes more to a busy weekend and needing to move shit around. I’ll change the things I can change, accept the things I can’t, and, at the end of it all, try to get these posts up by Monday. [Ed. - See programming note at the end, if you make it. Journey's long, mes amis.]

To riff on a regular obsession for this blog, definitions of the phrase “must-win game” probably number in the dozens. My thinking on it has evolved to another phrase – i.e., a result doesn't need to be fatal and chronic can actually be worse. Part of that turns on the fact that, in Major League Soccer, the only teams challenging for the Supporters’ Shield play must-win games week in and out. For the rest of MLS, the damage done by failing to win a "must-win" game lurks in a space between reputational and predictive. To explain by example, the Portland Timbers upcoming against Sporting Kansas City is a must-win game because losing to a team already tagged as one of the worst in MLS history, failing to bank those (still) easy points compels the Timbers to fight for them against bigger dragons. (Related, heartbroken for SKC fans; pulling for you crazy kids.) In other words, what starts as keeping up appearances can quickly become a lesson in the practical math of foregone points.  

Based on how I see other people talk – and therefore think about soccer – makes me think I put more weight on the question of the opposition than most. Any team can win any given game, of course, but where each time is in terms of points, confidence, feeling like they’re making progress, etc. etc. at the time they meet means, like, a lot. Which brings the conversation to…

San Diego FC 1-2 Portland Timbers
What Passes for a Match Report
When Andres Dreyer scored the penalty kick, called by the ref (correctly) for a Brandon Bye handball, a game that already tilted against the Timbers seemed poised to roll away from them. By my imperfect tally, San Diego had fired five shots inside the opening 20 minutes and they fired two more – including one Dreyer buries four times out of ten – before 25 minutes had gone. Kevin Kelsy quite literally stole a goal at the 26th minute – i.e., he picked the ball of the generally reliable Jeppe Tverskov’s toe and scored a smart one – but Dreyer’s goal still felt like regular order reasserting itself. Instead, reality turned regular order on its head.

MLS Week 8 & 9 Wrap-Up: A Short Longitudinal That Means Nothing, Yet Satisfies Something

Roger Shewitt isn't a real name. This is Roger Schmidt.

Before Major League Soccer kicked off…what I think was its Week 8, I saw the first midweek games of the season chasing its tail and decided that a condensed schedule called for a simpler post. With that in mind, I posted 10 questions to Bluesky (9, factually) that the two games played by all the teams involved would either answer, or at least begin to answer.

The Q & ensuing A are below, with some amount of riffing thrown in. Nothing of what’s below provides comprehensive coverage, it’s intended as a snapshot for a couple handfuls of events (aka, games). This could become a model for the league-wide posts. I typically know about 12 hours before you do, fwiw. Let’s get do it, let’s get down to it, Roger…Shewitt.

1) What Happens on Inter Miami CF’s Post-Mascherano Rocky Mountain Road Trip Swing?
At least the Colorado Rapids made the MLS brass’s very special boy/team work for the win. They beat them by the numbers, too, and my Bluesky timeline was full of praise for Matt Wells and Rafael Navarro’s savvy slipperiness. Miami scored the late winner through Messi, of course, but they seemed no less determined to feed German Berterame until he scored a damn goal (which he did). Despite the offside (by a fucking toenail) goal that RSL had called back, the Rocky Mountain rivalry’s Western-most team looked more rattled than I’ve seen them so far in 2026. It took them ferever to do it, but Miami won that one comfortably on goals by well-heeled opening acts like Rodrigo de Paul (82nd minute) and Luis “Ear-Biter” Suarez (83rd). “Indifferent form” means different things to different teams, but, in case you missed it, Miami hasn’t lost since Match Day 1 and they’re now 2nd in the East right behind Nashville. If this team sees a slump in 2026, looks like it’ll come later.

2) Do Either Toronto or New England Have the (or Any) Juice?
New England answered with a throaty “YYYEeesssssss!!” with dueling 2-1 wins – versus Columbus last weekend and at Atlanta last night – while Toronto answered with what can best be characterized as an animated shrug by way of back-to-back, thrilling 3-3 draws versus Austin and Philadelphia. I didn’t see anything from the Austin draw (though the final stats tell me I should have put in the time), but I saw that Philly gave Toronto a fight they merely survived thanks to a last-gasp, thoroughly gorgeous equalizer by their ‘keeper, Luka Gavran (who, based on what I saw, only stayed as high as he did at Kobe Franklin’s urging). Shit was thin, in other words, and it’s still just two points from as many games and…well, sixth place isn’t so bad, even if 11th is a mere three points below. Toggling to the other team, the Revs’ win versus Columbus had me asking whether the latter is just a bad team (they actually did a nose better by the stats) and seeing any team up to and including a random collection of fans and stadium vendors beat Atlanta should surprise no one at this point (shout-out to Sergey Miranchuk, who’s doing really well after a bad 2025!); that’s all to say the opposition always matters. Going the other way, both wins count as New England taking care of business, they’ve charted their own fate all the way up to third in the East…even if that followed from beating every (or just four) of the East’s worst teams (MTL, DC, CLB, ATL), three of them at home. Still, juice is juice.

Minnesota United FC 2-0 Portland Timbers, the Brutal Math of Gettable Points & a San Diego Scouting Report [hiccup!]

THIS IS THE TRUTH! SMILE!!!

If you seriously thought Portland would win last Saturday, I salute your optimism. This post does not make a case for optimism – the deck’s stacked pretty high against that – but rather occupies a state of suspended animation that I can’t see dissipating until Merritt pulls the plug on Phil Neville’s tenure. Where things go from there…that’s some tricky shit. Moving on…

Minnesota United FC 2-0 Portland Timbers
What Passes for a Match Report
After multiple threats to skip the tick-tock of the match and just pass on a handful of broad impressions, I’m following through this time. Minnesota scored an early goal, nice finish by Tomas Chancalay (good player, bad history with injuries), but I was more disturbed by their successful targeting of Jose Caicedo for prying the ball loose – particularly one short week after declaring myself “sold” on the youngster (see Talking Point 6). Jefferson Diaz did the picking on that occasion and pulled it back for the assist, but my notes have Caicedo coughing up possession on both sides of Diaz’s mugging and, if there’s one must-have skill for a No. 6, it’s not giving up the ball in that position. It took the Loons until the second half to score their second – also around 15 minutes in, curiously – and the Timbers gave that one up by overcommitting to the attack. A great ball from (I believe) the highly-effective Joaquin Pereyra dropped from Minnesota’s right to Chancalay on Portland’s right and, with the Timbers midfield miles behind the play and the defense chasing, all he had to do once he landed the trap (with aplomb) was find a wide-open Kelvin Yeboah for a tap-in/his fifth goal of the season.

The final numbers paint a picture that Bob Ross couldn’t tidy up with a forest of happy trees, but Portland found chances, including feeds to a streaking, anxious Antony that one thinks would lift their xG higher than 1.0, but I don’t control such things. Cole Bassett – who arguably played the best game in an off-white Art Deco kit on Saturday (again, Kristoffer Velde gets my vote to make up for how often I’ve shit on him) – got a bit lucky to get a great chance about six yards out, but got unlucky by pinging his shot off the post (surely, that’s in here). Jimer Fory played a good cross to Felipe Mora that just fell a bit too low (29th minute), Brandon Bye found the ball at his feet after a good spell of pressure and played a peach of a cross that found no takers (63rd), Velde got loose on the counter a couple times in the second half only to have an errant touch push the ball out of his reach or to play a smart cross 10 yards behind a run on a long diagonal: maybe scribbling “thriving in garbage time” into my notes credits the effort too much, but this 1) wasn’t abject failure, and 2) wasn’t unexpected.

Portland Timbers 2-1 Los Angeles FC & MLS Week 7: re Asking the Right Questions

MLS Week 7 felt like a good week for defenses to let a player run from the midfield stripe to goal. And that’s watching just one game over half of them.

As hinted at on Bluesky (not sure how many people who find this site are on there, but it feels like most), I’ve tweaked the formula for these posts…yet again, so we’ll see where this goes. Per the Next Five-Year Plan, there will be:

1) a post about the Portland Timbers game, plus the round-up of MLS action for the relevant week, six games will be covered, if more contextually than specifically; and

2) a preview post for the Timbers opponent for the MLS Match Day to come.

Social obligations have put this post a couple hours further behind deadline, so I’m cutting off the preamble there, whatever doesn’t make sense shall become apparent, the first shall be last, the meek will get the best seats at the opera and dolphins shall walk the Earth, moving on to this week’s main event, which had a sweet, sweet chaser…

Portland Timbers 2-1 Los Angeles FC
What Passes for a Match Report
Regular readers of my preview posts know that the real payoff is all the shit I get wrong. After making a firm, reasonably empirical case that LAFC wouldn’t rotate their roster much, they rolled in with most of their regular starters except Denis Bouanga and Nkoski Tafari resting on the bench, it looks like Son Heung-min didn’t even travel, and so on. That set this up as Portland versus LAFC’s Youth Academy, bench players and the two aforementioned starters, which kicked the game off with an opportunity for the fully-loaded Timbers and plausible deniability for LAFC.

Los Angeles FC Scouting Report & an MLS Week 6 Wrap Up: To The Plan & Progress

"Reading Cliff Notes" taken very literally.

In the event others are ever tempted to try such foolishness, I’d argue that you can get almost as much from watching a 10-minute highlight reel than you get from parachuting in to watch a full half of two teams you barely know. The stray comments you catch from the broadcast booth is the only benefit of the latter and the former makes up a little ground by keeping in the best bits, plus a little more context. Think of it as a good, though not great, cut of meat.

In other news, a brain-wave on the way home from work has finally completed The Plan going forward for this site:

1) Portland Timbers Wrap Up posted no later than Sunday; and

2) a 50%-plus wrap up of the weekend’s results topped with a preview of Portland’s next opponent posted no later than Wednesday, but ideally on Tuesday (I did it, mom!).

A couple things recommend this shift, most personal, at least one practical, but that’s enough for the editorial notes because, this week, I’m on a damn schedule. Close readers will notice that the “50%-plus” figure in No. 2. The current goal has me including blurbs on six games in the weekly wrap ups. Those will be based on highlights, with a dash of historical context, but those six games, plus the Timbers game, plus a longer review of Portland’s next opponent will get my eyes on a total of 16 teams every week – i.e., just over half the league. In an attempt to get a jump on the future, I’m already revising The Plan for when Major League Soccer switches to a handful of regional conferences in 2027-2028 (that’s actually happening, right? I didn't dream that?), but I’ll cross that bridge next fall. In the here and now, though, The Plan means ignoring seven results every week. Covering those real fast, with links to The Mothership’s wrap ups embedded in each final score:

Results I Ignored (no real surprises here)
New England Revolution 3-0 Club du Foot Montreal (expected on both sides of the score)
Real Salt Lake 3-1 Sporting Kansas City (see above)
Charlotte FC 2-1 Philadelphia Union (Union=dead to me until they get at least a draw)
Inter Miami CF 2-2 Austin FC (very Austin season so far and ignoring Miami is my joint)
New York City FC 1-1 St. Louis CITY FC (mildly surprising; becoming St. Louis-curious)
Houston Dynamo FC 0-1 Seattle Sounders (wee alarms 4 Houston; Seattle boring again)
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-2 Minnesota United FC (expected; also good for the Loons)

With that out of the way, let’s talk about the Timbers’ opposition next weekend, with