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| Sweet Jesus. That is Chatty Cathy and she is terrifying! |
So, the 2016 Major League Soccer
season reaches its long-delayed climax (srsly, entire month of November was
pure whiskey-dick) tomorrow afternoon when the Seattle Sounders visit Toronto
FC to vie for MLS Cup. My plans for the day include pulling on some loose
fitting clothing and burying myself in blankets on a couch and challenging my body
to stay awake despite all the depressants I no doubt will dump into my system
in order to cope with what has potential to be, the final insult of 2016. By
that I mean Seattle might win the damn game, which would be awful, while also
putting an end to my dream of buying a Sounders jersey (nah, I’ll steal one; no
money for them) just so I can put [___] over the crest – e.g. where the star
goes after your team wins.
It’s not like it’s hard to find
write-ups and predictions for tomorrow’s game – the official preview post on
MLSSoccer.com has about 20 of the things – because it’s the event of the annual
soccer calendar. I’d still like to offer up some final thoughts, for am I a
Chatty Cathy Doll, one that talks even without someone pulling the string. Hope
I can touch on something novel.
I touched on this thought a
couple times over the past week, but when it comes to framing the Cup, I think
it’s important to understand it as something other than just the next game for
either Seattle or Toronto. “Form” matters, of course, but, in a rough and real
way, Seattle is a different team from the Montreal Impact (for Toronto) and
Toronto is a different team than the Colorado Rapids (for Seattle). And it goes
even deeper than that. Basically, Toronto confronts Seattle with entirely new
problems to solve and situations to exploit and vice versa. Here, an honest man
acknowledges that there’s not much hard data to work with here, because the
teams met only once in 2016 (and under pretty different circumstances). With
that, let’s start with what we do know…says, the guy who just gave “form” the
side-eye not 100 words before. And, in another nice touch
irony/self-flagellation, wherever did I leave that “how they got here” post
that I gently mocked yesterday? Ah, there it is. So, fuck me from two days ago,
that’s worth reading. Now, let’s take a step further back…
As we all know, Seattle plays the
final on the road. Because the Sounders ended the regular season with a 4-9-4
road record, I wanted to confirm that they didn’t transform into road warriors
late in the season or anything. The answer there, no, not really: they pulled
off an impressive win against LA in late September, and beat Vancouver a couple
weeks later (something everyone did, really, except the stupid Portland
Timbers), and that’s good and all, but it doesn’t translate to them having a
fine-tuned road strategy. On the reverse side of the same token, TFC ain’t
exactly a home powerhouse. They ended the regular season at 8-3-6. Moreover, one
potentially worthwhile detail got a little lost in the wild goal-fests that
defined TFC’s post-season, and it’s one worth drawing out. People talked up TFC
as potential Supporters’ Shield winners down the stretch and their candidacy owed
a lot to a stack of home games with which they ended their season. Here’s what
TFC did in those home games: they went 1-1-3, i.e., crazy points left on the
table. And this wasn’t a case of struggling against the league’s best and
brightest: the only team they beat was the Chicago Fire (3-2), while they drew
Orlando City SC, the Philadelphia Union and the New York Red Bulls – and, worth
noting, struggled to score against Philly and Orlando. DC dropped two goals on ‘em,
the Red Bulls 3; even Chicago got 2 goals, so…
I dig into all that as a sub-text
for weighing the teams each club vanquished in the post-season – especially the
stuff about Toronto. The one game that proceeded all those goal-fests was TFC’s
late, narrow, first-round win over New York City FC. Game 1 actually tracked
Toronto’s late-season form (e.g., not great), but those two goals happened and
later forced NYCFC to chase the series, something they got absolutely destroyed
doing. I won’t totally undercut the way Toronto salvaged the series against
Montreal – and I’ll touch on the defensive side later - but it did require them
to execute that game plan almost perfectly (and for Montreal to let them do it;
I will never, NEVER understand why Montreal didn’t pull Marco Donadel off Nick
Hagglund, because that killed them). Still, and this is to their credit, the
series set up to present Toronto with a situation analogous to NYCFC’s – e.g.,
they had to come out, get burned, and then overcome that. And they did. I guess
my overarching thought on all the above is that it’ll be interesting to see how
Toronto comes out with a series starting at zeroes.
Seattle, meanwhile, has, 1) never
been behind in a series this post-season, and, 2) never faced down a potent offense.
They started with (and arguably should have lost to) Sporting Kansas City, a
team that attacks intensely, but with “pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey-esque”
precision; next came an FC Dallas team missing its unicorn (Mauro Diaz) and
then, after that, the Rapids, the sum of whose attack is contained in just one
name: Kevin Doyle (and they want a bigger container; trust me). Switching to
the offense, the more honest script for their post-season triumphs shows that
their best outing – the 3-0 win over Dallas in Seattle – all took place over a
20-minute period. And those goals required pretty significant collapses down
Dallas’ right. Otherwise, Seattle stole goals where they could and when needed.
That doesn’t comment on the quality of those goals, so much as noting the way
they happened. And there’s a good plant for a pivot to the future…where I have
just a couple thoughts; hope at least a couple are original.
Jordan Morris
Even if he’s not quite Montreal’s
Ignacio Piatti, Jordan Morris carries the weight of Seattle’s surest path
toward goal. One of the most interesting thing about this series is how Toronto
decides to play its flanks/fullbacks – e.g. does the fullback on whatever side
he’s playing stick a little closer to home, maybe even the centerbacks? Does
Morris even line up on one side or the other, or does Seattle just use him as a
forward? Morris may not be nearly as elegant as Piatti, but he’ll probably be
good so long as he hits Dominic Oduro’s level; then, it’ll just be down to
Nelson Valdez or Nicolas Lodeiro to make the right run (and for Toronto’s
defenders to track him). Moving onto a related thought:
Does Toronto Stick with the
3-5-2?
I only pose this question because
I don’t think it makes sense against Seattle, and precisely due to the
situation at fullback. I don’t think Toronto gains enough by flooding the
midfield, not unless they do something nuts like man-mark Lodeiro, but doing
even that assumes that no other Sounder can find Morris and, heck, I think even
Stefan Frei can pull it off. Besides, it’s not just a straight numbers game: I’m
guessing that Osvaldo Alonso and Cristian Roldan could hold up against it,
especially if they can force Toronto to play narrow (as they made Colorado do
late in their second leg). I believe the 3-5-2 has helped their attack, and Toronto
might be the better bet between these two teams to catch up if they fall
behind, but I still think, 1) better not to fall behind, and 2) why take an
unnecessary risk?
To answer my own question, the
3-5-2 seems likely for Toronto because sometimes you just dance with the guy that
brung you and make the little adjustments you have to in order to make it work.
It’s just a risk, that’s all. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Toronto start with a
different setup, but I’m not expecting it. And I bet they go straight back to
the 3-5-2 if they fall behind…and the game will be very entertaining
thereafter.
Jozy’s Movement/Finding Chad
Marshall
I think the assumption is that
Seattle will stick Roman Torres on Jozy. I also think that Jozy should mess
with that arrangement as much as possible – and he should do it not just by
dropping into midfield to find the ball (which comes up a lot), but by also
sort of following around Chad Marshall whenever Jozy’s pushed up high. The
basic idea is to get Marshall and Torres sort of tripping over one another. Don’t
know if that’ll work or not, but it’s worth a shot. As noted earlier, Altidore
is having an awesome post-season, and I’d love to see one more great game from
him. And, personally, I’d argue that his chances go up every time he can
isolate himself against Marshall.
I Can’t Wait to See What Toronto
Does With Sebastian Giovinco
That’s all. I hope it’s good.
The Mystery of Michael Bradley
While I didn’t see every kick on
the Toronto v. Montreal series, I did see the parts where Montreal just fucking
ran over Toronto’s midfield, and Bradley caused, like, a lot of those problems,
whether by give-aways, or getting beat like a goddamn gong defensively. He’s
going to be important, even more so if Toronto goes away from the 3-5-2,
because he’ll be exposed more defensively. Hmmm…the more I think about this,
the more I wonder if Toronto doesn’t have the bigger vulnerabilities in
midfield. Between Roldan and Alonso, Seattle has a clear system that they know
how to execute; I don’t feel quite the same about Toronto’s situation. I dunno,
maybe they do expend a warm body to keep Lodeiro out of the game…
Lodeiro
Beyond believing he’ll do
everything he can to get free to operate, I don’t know what to expect. One
thing that it just occurred to me to watch is how closely he sticks to Morris.
By that I mean there could be some value in alternate between keeping Lodeiro
near to combine with Morris, but also to pull him away to see if Toronto
players chasing Lodeiro doesn’t give Morris a better shot at getting isolated
with a hapless fullback (aka, Steven Beitashour could be in for a long night).
Well, that’s all I got. Unlike
some people I’ve read, I think this one could set up like a traditional final –
e.g. cagey. Both teams are good enough to defend for a while, especially if
they don’t take too many chances. Once a goal gets scored, especially one by
Seattle, I expect all hell breaks loose. I’m not sure I’d make the same point
with Toronto. I can see them killing the game, and precisely by dropping the
fullbacks to choke off those lanes for Morris.
Do I have a prediction? Well,
sort of. It’s somewhere in the paragraph above. So long as Toronto scores
first, I think they win it. If Seattle scores first, I’m less sure they hold
on, even as it’s not hard to see a world where they do.
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