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| The mighty house I have built. |
Because I couldn’t watch the replay of Atlanta v. Portland (and so many of you refused to elaborate on it),
I went and did something exhaustively nutty. My pain for your pleasure, or at
least your edification.
Understanding Major League Soccer as this wildly
unpredictable league morphed into a kind of truism. I’d very much like to kick
the legs out from under that one, at least to the extent that I can. I have the
data, which only leaves how to organize into something readable. Think I’ll organize it according to the current MLS standings…hold
on. I haven’t even talked about what I’ve got in terms of data or goals, have
I? Backing up…
First, I reviewed the last 10 results for every team in MLS
(23 = bigger league), recording how each team did over that stretch, including
their record, both home and away, goals scored and allowed, and so on. From
there, I cross-referenced that info against the teams they’ve played -
specifically, the number of those teams currently above or below the playoff
line (I label this “IN v. OUT”). And, for the final act, I take that
information and project it forward to get some reasonably grounded sense of
expectations for, again (and welcome to my Rain Man side), all 23 teams in
Major League Soccer.
This methodology might fall several yards short of perfect -
and I’d be delighted to have a robust and detailed conversation about the bugs
in this system - and the only sources I used are the Form Guide and MLS's injury page. Even so, I committed only a glance’s worth of attention to
injuries and potential/pending new signings, and long-time MLS fans know what a
new signing can mean in the MLS 3.2 (or thereabouts) era. Also, a team’s
form over the past 10 games just does not inevitably carry forward to the next
10 games, never mind through the end of the season. For instance, Toronto FC
has helped teams across the league to better records throughout the 2018
season, but they still feel like a plausible bet to turn that around and go all Jekyll/Hyde and
visit splitting headaches on other teams down the stretch. Or take Seattle: can one Peruvian
make that solid defense finally pay off? Teams like the Philadelphia Union and
Real Salt Lake, meanwhile, are currently above the playoff line, but do they
really belong there? By way of answering that, details I found en route to
building this massive pillow-fort of data added a little weight to vague opinions
like that - say, where weaker teams have picked up their points so far this
season.
You’ll find a ungodly pile of words and numbers down below,
so get ready for data, y’all! To give the tldr crowd the short version, I think
the Eastern Conference gets interesting after the fifth team, while the Western
Conference gets interesting after the third; if there’s not more fluidity on
the Best Coast than the other one, I’m reading everything very wrong. Back to
it, this is in the order of the current standings. And, to note it, when I
write “Record v IN teams:” below, that means against teams that are in the
playoffs at time of writing, while “Record v OUT teams” means teams that are
not. And, when I talk about the “IN/OUT Split” when looking at the rest of a
team’s games below, that means the number of games they’ll play against teams
on either side of the playoff line (again) at time of writing - e.g., Atlanta
United’s IN/OUT Split is 6/11, meaning they face teams that projected for the
playoffs 6 times, and teams not 11 times. And, golly, does Atlanta look to have
it good. Let’s see how everyone else looks, staring with…
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta United FC - 34 points, 10-3-4 (6-2-2 home, 5-1-2
away), 34 gf, 20 ga (+14), 17 GP
Last 10 games: 5-2-3 (2-2-1 home, 3-0-2 away), 17 gf, 12 ga
Record v IN teams: 2-2-3
Record v OUT teams: 3-0-0
NOTES: Atlanta lost home games to two strong teams (Sporting
KC and the Red Bulls), but they’ve also been strong on the road - even against
strong playoff-bound teams (e.g., Columbus and NYCFC). When they do drop
points, they’re dropping them against good teams. They look solid as their
record/reputation, basically.
The Future
8 home games remaining, 9 road games; IN/OUT Split: 6/11
NOTES: Holy crap, does Atlanta have it easy: two games
against bumbling Orlando, two against DC (wait for it), plus games against
Western Conference make-weights like San Jose. And when they face “IN” teams,
those include marginal teams like Philly and RSL. On the injury side, they lost
Greg Garza for pretty much the season and Darlington Nagbe for a month or two.
Neither injury is good news, but neither should kill their considerable
momentum. They also signed and Argentine d-mid named Eric Remedi, who I know
nothing about, but Atlanta definitely presents as a powerhouse team. (So, shake
a little swagger into those butt-cheeks, Portland fans!)
New York City FC - 31 points, 9-3-4 (7-0-1 home, 2-3-3
away), 32 gf, 21 ga (+11), 16 GP
Last 10 games: 4-3-3 (4-0-1 home, 0-3-2 away), 18 gf, 17 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-2-3
Record v OUT teams: 3-1-0
NOTES: Their record over their last five (3-1-1) actually
improved over the first five in the data-set (1-2-2), but their record against
“IN” teams and the contextually severe tightening of their goal differential
feel like stronger indicators. If one detail rescues those stats, they played
some of the league’s better teams, and they traveled for four of those five
games; they’re also strong at home (if with some padding - e.g., Colorado,
Orlando and Toronto). Losing Patrick Vieira probably felt a little like losing
their favorite cool uncle, but these are professional players, they’ve got a
new coach, and my little caveat about where they played those teams for a
little back-pocket confidence. The transaction page doesn’t report any new
signings, so it looks like they’ll be rolling house dice going forward (“house
dice”?).
The Future
9 home games remaining, 9 road games; IN/OUT Split: 8/10
NOTES: They have some tough ones ahead, no question -
including the Red Bulls twice on the road (somehow), and a couple dates with
Columbus. Their schedule is Eastern-Conference-heavy, and two dates with both
DC and Chicago means they’ve got points available that any good team would take
as a trio. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them slip out of second, but all the
way out of the playoffs seems unlikely.
New York Red Bulls - 29 points, 9-4-2 (6-1-1 home, 3-1-1
away), 33 gf, 16 ga (+17), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 6-2-2 (3-1-1 home, 3-1-1 away), 20 gf, 10 ga
Record v IN teams: 3-1-2
Record v OUT teams: 3-1-0
NOTES: They can be erratic (losing at home to Chicago, for
instance, versus winning at Atlanta), but, 1) none of the above numbers lie,
the Red Bulls are beating teams most teams they should, and 2) on the evidence
of the last 10 games, they can beat any team, anywhere. With respect to Vincent
Bezecourt and Kyle Duncan, they don’t have any major injuries, they called up a
USL kid/dude to cover the defense, and, so long as they keep rotating that
squad, they’ll still have game-ready players at most positions and, again,
they’re producing those numbers.
The Future
9 home games remaining, 10 road games; IN/OUT Split: 9/10
NOTES: The month of July and the first week in August should
give the real measure of this team: there’s a whole bunch of IN teams in there.
A lot of those games come at home, even if, per the numbers, the Red Bulls
don’t much note the distinction between home and away. Once the final whistle
blows to end their home game against LAFC on August 5, it’s mostly downhill
from there (i.e., easier), if with a couple gentle rises (Atlanta at home,
Philly on the road). This team should compete to and into the playoffs.
Columbus Crew SC - 27 points, 7-5-6 (5-2-3 home, 2-3-3
away), 22 gf, 18 ga (+4), 18 GP
Last 10 games: 4-2-4 (3-1-2 home, 1-1-2 away), 11 gf, 9 ga
Record v IN teams: 2-2-2
Record v OUT teams: 2-0-2
NOTES: It takes a team like Columbus to really draw out this
data-set’s value, because there’s a fairly clear pattern in play: the Crew played
tougher teams over their recent five-game skid (0-2-3) than they did in the
five games before (4-0-1), and that tells you something about Columbus, along
with that skin-tight goal differential they’ve held all season long. Home wins
against San Jose and Chicago describe one side of their level, while a home
loss to Atlanta and a road loss to LAFC fill in the other side. The Crew has
played more games than any team in the league, so it’s not like they’re tearing
it up, but they are decent defensive team with a plausible attacking scheme.
Losing Zac Steffen sucks a bit (time out = pending), but they’ve got good depth,
and pretty much all over.
The Future
7 home games remaining, 9 road games; IN/OUT Split: 8/8
NOTES: Mid-August to early September looks like Columbus’
toughest stretch (@ Atlanta, Dallas and Portland, plus NYCFC at home), and they
end with three reasonable soft games. As much as Columbus strikes me as a team
that might go either way, an even split between teams they should beat (with
some variables - e.g., LA and Houston) and teams that might beat them (with
some variables - e.g., RSL and Philly in Columbus) makes me see this whole
thing as more about them than everyone else.
New England Revolution - 24 points, 6-4-6 (5-2-2 home, 1-2-4
away), 27 gf, 23 ga (+4), 16 GP
Last 10 games: 3-2-5 (2-1-3 home, 0-1-4 away), 17 gf, 17 ga
Record v IN teams: 2-1-3
Record v OUT teams: 1-1-2
NOTES: New England dropped points in dumb games (e.g., at
Montreal and San Jose, Columbus at home), but they’ve also beat SKC and the Red
Bulls (both at home). Call ‘em shakily capable, like a drunk person shooting
pool through his “window.” They lost Chris Tierney for the season, but that was
at the beginning of June and I feel worse for him than I do for the team. I don’t
see any new signings, but they’ve got a solid team, one with the talent to go
places at the very least. They could stand to do better on the road, but four
draws always beats four losses, yeah?
The Future
8 home games remaining, 10 road games; IN/OUT Split: 8/10
NOTES: First, the Revs have it pretty easy till September 1
- who wants to play the Red Bulls away? - but the biggest question in that soft
patch is how they play fellow playoff stragglers, Philadelphia, a team they’ll
play twice in three weeks. New England needs to lard up on points over that stretch, when they play three games against struggling teams at home (DC, Seattle,
LA), then three relatively easy games over the next five (Minnesota, Orlando
and DC), if they want to be anybody anyone cares about. Even within New
England. Have I mentioned these guys are, like, my fifth team? True story. With
that in mind, I expect these guys to make the playoffs and they might even make
some noise.
Philadelphia Union - 21 points, 6-7-3 (5-2-2 home, 1-5-1
away), 20 gf, 21 ga (-1), 16 GP
Last 10 games: 5-4-1 (4-1-0 home, 1-3-1 away), 17 gf, 13 ga
Record v IN teams: 2-2-1
Record v OUT teams: 3-2-0
NOTES: The Union has improved recently, and quietly, but a
lot of that has something to do with winning everywhere they should, except
Toronto (who has their number across venues). Philly got their best results
against RSL and Vancouver in Philly - the last, a 4-0 win, hints at
“freak-result” potential - but they played only a couple powerhouse teams
during this stretch and that’s worth keeping in mind. On the plus side, do mind
the late improvement in their goal differential. The Union hasn’t lost anyone
they can’t replace, and I’ve been impressed with their capacity for controlling
even the games they didn’t win. They could hold steady, really, and I think
playoffs would feel just as good as they feel plausible for Philly.
The Future
8 home games remaining, 10 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/8
NOTES: That assumes they survive a staccato burst of tough
games ahead, starting with LAFC in LA and Atlanta at home; they get some
(dubious) rest (LA in Philly, Houston in Houston) before running through a
paddle-wheel that features games at Portland and New England, followed by NYCFC
and New England at home over the ensuing weeks. The season ends just as tricky
for Philly (both New York clubs), so they’ll want to bank all 12 points during
their easier days in early August. Between having more road games than home and
more IN teams than OUT, the Union will have to punch up, and several times, to
hold this last spot in the playoffs.
Chicago Fire - 20 points, 5-7-5 (3-4-2 home, 2-3-3 away), 24
gf, 29 ga (-5), 17 GP
Last 10 games: 3-4-3 (2-2-1 home, 1-2-2 away), 13 gf, 17 ga
Record v IN teams: 0-3-1
Record v OUT teams: 3-1-2
NOTES: This is where the numbers really illuminate.
Chicago’s three wins look one hell of a lot less impressive when you see they
came against Montreal and San Jose at home and a tail-spinning Orlando team on
the road. All in all, this team loses to good opposition and sputters against
average ones. Matt Polster looks like their most significant injury, so that
sinks that excuse, and picking up Alan Gordon probably helped them, but that
happened in March and not nearly enough upside kicked in from that.
The Future
7 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 11/6
NOTES: If these guys don’t sign new players, between having
more games on the road and that IN/OUT Split, this team is fucking doomed. They
play a full six of the games against IN teams on the road - at Dallas, Atlanta
and NYCFC among them. The rest might be softer, but so is Chicago. I expect
this team to see the playoff line rise ever further for this bunch, pure and
simple.
Orlando City SC - 19 points, 6-9-1 (4-4-1 home, 2-5-0 away),
24 gf, 33 ga (-9), 16 GP
Last 10 games: 3-7-0 (2-3-0 home, 1-4-0 away), 13 gf, 23 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-3-0
Record v OUT teams: 2-4-0
NOTES: The first, maybe even the only thing you need to
know: Orlando has lost seven games straight, and do pay mind to their 2-4-0
against OUT teams, because that includes Montreal coming and going and choking
against Chicago at home. Head coach Jason Kreis lost his head (coaching job),
but that only means he joins the free-fall. They can’t even blame the goddamn
mess on injury, because they’ve got all of one back-up goalkeeper missing (big
fan, Mason Stajduhar).
The Future
8 home games remaining, 10 road games. IN/OUT Split: 12/6
NOTES: And things just get worse from there with a 12/6
split on the IN/OUT index. Atlanta twice, New England twice, both New York
teams, plus Dallas and SKC? And by a team that’s broken and quite possibly
self-loathing? I mean, sure, anything can happen, but small wonder Caleb Porter
passed on this job…and they'll also have to sort out this mess under a coaching transition. Whoof.
Montreal Impact - 18 points, 6-11-0 (4-3-0 home, 2-8-0
away), 20 gf, 31 ga (-11), 17 GP
Last 10 games: 4-6-0 (3-2-0 home, 1-4-0 away), 10 gf, 14 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-3-0
Record v OUT teams: 3-3-0
NOTES: They picked up a couple results, but back-to-back
games against Orlando will do that for ya. I’m more curious about the meaning
of their home win over Houston two games prior, because that hints at a foot
hitting something firm to stand on. Going the other way, this same team lost to
Chicago, Minnesota, Philly and LA, and the last two at home. Wins against three
of those teams pads numbers that would otherwise be abysmal. They’ve lost a
mainstay or two - thinking of Victor Cabrera there - but nothing that explains
away a season of batting 0.545 ball (yeah, yeah, they’d be crushing it in
baseball).
The Future
10 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/7
NOTES: Sure, they don’t have to play any of MLS’s better
teams more than once, but having both New York teams (NYCFC twice), Atlanta,
SKC, Portland, and the Revs (again, twice), doesn’t bode well for a team that
just lost six games over ten, with six of those games coming against teams
outside the playoffs.
Toronto FC - 15 points, 4-8-3 (3-2-2 home, 1-5-1 away), 24
gf, 29 ga (-5), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 3-4-3 (2-2-2 home, 1-2-1 away), 20 gf, 18 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-3-1
Record v OUT teams: 2-1-2
NOTES: I flagged Toronto’s home draw versus DC for a couple
reasons. First, DC, but second, they scored four fucking goals, and still drew
this game, and at home. We really and truly are to the point of how cares what
the fuck happened with this team last year, because, with home draws to DC and
Chicago, and a home loss to Seattle, 2018 Toronto keeps finding ways to lose
games; if they didn’t have Philly’s number, god knows where they’d be. By way
of excuses, they lost key players during this stretch - e.g., Jozy Altidore and
Drew Moor, and Chris Mavinga being out probably matters in that context, but…if you’ve
heard people gush about this team’s depth (including me), just everything about
the above should have you asking questions. And I’m guessing that calling up
five dudes from the USL in April 2018 answers none of them.
The Future
9 home games remaining, 10 road games; IN/OUT Split: 11/8
NOTES: I went deeper on Toronto’s number for a variety of
reasons and, long story short, if they can’t make the most of one road game against
Orlando and the home/away series against Chicago at the end of July - I mean,
that’s three of their eight OUT games right there - this team might not even
make the playoffs, never mind repeat. I’d go so far as to say whatever
collapses I can envision for the four teams above them (also, contemplate that
for a bit) holds out Toronto’s brightest hope for salvaging the season. Outside
that, it gets bleak - e.g., Atlanta twice, the Red Bulls twice, SKC, LAFC, etc.
DC United - 10 points, 2-6-4 (1-0-1 home, 1-6-3 away), 19
gf, 24 ga (-5), 12 GP
Last 10 games: 2-5-3 (1-0-1 home, 1-5-2 away), 17 gf, 20 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-4-1
Record v OUT teams: 1-1-2
NOTES: With DC, this whole thing comes to its first and
biggest “X Factor” so far. DC has been awful, no question, but homelessness is
a bitch, right? When DC has played at home? Four points from six. And they’ve
got Wayne Rooney en route besides. What’ll that do? Beats me. As much as
anything else, I’m impressed by how tight DC has kept their goal differential
during their Wilderness Days of 2018. If nothing else, the fact that one of
their two wins came on the road tells you that things could always be worse,
you could be San Jose, and with fewer excuses. And DC has more than a few, with
injuries to key (for them) players like Taylor Kemp, Kofi Opare and Ulises
Segura before he found his feet.
The Future
15 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 13/9
NOTES: Bottom line, the schedule ahead doesn’t do DC any
favors. For as many times that they have beatable teams ahead (your Chicagos,
your Montreals), they have twice as many nightmare match-ups against
Conference-elite teams like Atlanta and both New Yorks, but also strong Western Conference
teams like Dallas and Portland. Having twice as many home games ahead
could give them some relief, especially in a new stadium. On the other hand,
I’ve seen DC’s roster and I can’t see Rooney in his primiest prime pulling that
shit out of the fire. As with Toronto, the semi-plausible collapses of the
teams above them could buy them some slots on the table. Don’t count this team
out for that reason alone.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Sporting Kansas City - 32 points, 9-2-5 (6-1-2 home, 3-1-3
away), 31 gf, 16 ga (+15), 16 GP
Last 10 games: 5-1-4 (4-0-2 home, 1-1-2 away), 19 gf, 7 ga
Record v IN teams: 2-1-2
Record v OUT teams: 3-0-2
NOTES: I want to be worried about SKC’s recent road record,
but those seven goals allowed tell a different story. A 6-0(!) thrashing of
Vancouver pads those goal numbers, but the team would have been 12 gf, 7 ga
without it. Before you think there couldn’t be a more SKC record than 5-1-4,
consider they beat Atlanta 2-0 in Atlanta. Also, scores like their 3-2 against
Houston and their 4-1 against Minnesota, both at home, could speak to a team
that feels confident enough to open up a game when it makes sense. Going the
other way, their four draws speak to their limits, especially the later ones
against good defensive teams like Portland and Columbus. Of the injuries
they’ve had, none dinged their potential potential (no typo) like Felipe
Gutierrez going down before he could get rolling, but they’ve got enough of the
gang around to keep grinding out games in that 5-1-4 spirit till season’s end.
The Future
8 home games remaining, 10 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/8
NOTES: Few attributes travel as well in MLS as being hard to
beat, and SKC has the draws to prove that they have that locked down. Based on
their 10 games, and their season as a whole, SKC can beat the teams they should
and steal points where they have to. That’s enough to make me think they’ll
survive the tough road games they’ve got against IN teams like the Red Bulls,
LAFC and Dallas, and more than enough to convince me they’ll get the better of
RSL home and away, and a road game in Philadelphia. Barring a disaster - and
with Gutierrez expected to come back (and stay, y’know, healthy) - SKC should
compete to the end.
FC Dallas - 29 points, 8-2-5 (5-0-4 home, 3-2-1 away), 24
gf, 17 ga (+7), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 6-2-2 (4-0-1 home, 2-2-1 away), 17 gf, 14 ga
Record v IN teams: 2-2-2
Record v OUT teams: 4-0-0
NOTES: With Atlanta, Dallas has the only perfect record
against OUT teams, and that feels worth noting - especially with two of those
games coming on the road. They count as a top team based on their last ten, but
the fact they struggled against “real” league-elite teams (e.g., both New York
teams) also bears noting. If I had to be concerned about anything, it’d follow
from how they coughed up 14 of the 17 they’ve allowed over the last 10 games; I
mean, is that a trend, or just the opposition? That matters even more seeing as
Dallas depends on their defense to carry them, because they don’t score a ton
of goals. As for excuses Santiago Mosquera might be their worst loss to injury
- Cristian Colman sure the hell isn’t (and Mosquera was still very much
figuring things out last time I checked) - but they’ve got the team in place to
carry them somewhere into the playoffs.
The Future
8 home games remaining, 11 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/12
NOTES: Playing SKC twice looks like the worst
they’ll deal with. In other words, it’s conceivable that Dallas built this
record and still with their hardest games behind them. If nothing else, they
have the month of August essentially off (at least provided neither Seattle nor
Houston wakes up), and that’s where I’d look for this team to show who they
are. All in all, they’ve got the same general profile as SKC, and with only a
marginally worse road record.
Los Angeles FC - 27 points, 8-4-3 (3-0-3 home, 5-4-0 away),
31 gf, 24 ga (+7), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 5-2-3 (3-0-3 home, 2-2-0 away), 20 gf, 14 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-2-2
Record v OUT teams: 4-0-1
NOTES: LAFC beats bad teams regardless of venue, and that’s
probably the best reason to stay high on them. They struggle with at least as
much regularity and range (e.g., city-to-city) against the league’s better
teams, and that surely says something about their level - e.g., more good and
playoff-bound than destined for Year 1 Greatness. Every win comes with an
explanation that undercuts whatever theory this team has for a glorious Year 1.
All in all, the most impressive thing they’ve done was to beat Columbus on the
last match day.
The Future
11 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/11
NOTES: Per my notes (and I’m not reviewing them) LAFC plays literally
all of their games against IN teams at home - a place where, for the record,
they’ve been steady, not spectacular. By a similar token, they play most of
their games against non-playoff teams away, and that feels like it balances in
their favor. They really should remain competitive through the end of the year,
especially with the way they’re batting over .500 on the road; even staying
close to that should see them go places.
Real Salt Lake - 23 points, 7-7-2 (6-1-1 home, 1-6-1 away),
20 gf, 30 ga (-10), 16 GP
Last 10 games: 5-4-1 (4-0-1 home, 1-4-0 away), 14 gf, 16 ga
Record v IN teams: 0-2-0
Record v OUT teams: 5-2-1
NOTES: Few teams presented the benefits of this project in
full flower quite like RSL. By all appearances, they crawled their way into the
Western Conferences 4th place by stomping on the shoulders of a bunch of OUT
teams, but their perfect zeroes they scored against even marginal IN teams
(Vancouver and Philly isn’t climbing Everest, even away) signals them as a team
poised for free-fall, as does their -10 goal differential. All the same,
they’re strong enough at home to dunk on weak/erratic teams (DC, Houston, and Seattle, both home and away), but that doesn’t feel like a
transferable skill. In their defense, RSL has lost a bunch of players who seem
vital, in spite of looking ordinary for MLS - e.g., Tony Beltran, Demar Phillips
and Luke Mulholland. Add a legit mainstay like Justen Glad and it’s possible,
though not likely, RSL carves a path to a better future.
The Future
9 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/9
NOTES: They have a soft patch in Games 20-24 (@ MIN, v COL,
@ SJ, v CHI, v MTL), but that comes after three tough games in early July (@
CLB, v SKC, v FCD) that could easily see RSL drop out of the playoffs. RSL also
ends the season on five games’ worth of (potential) nightmare (@ ATL, @ SKC, v
PTD, v NE, @ PTD), and I’m going to, 1) call that the bookends of doom and, 2)
assume that RSL won’t survive it. Given how horribly this team travels, and
given how it handles top-tier competition, they make it to the playoffs against
stacked odds.
Portland Timbers - 23 points, 6-3-5 (4-0-2 home, 2-3-3
away), 21 gf, 19 ga (+7), 14 GP
Last 10 games: 6-1-3 (4-0-2 home, 2-1-1 away), 17 gf, 10 ga
Record v IN teams: 2-0-2
Record v OUT teams: 4-1-1
NOTES: Did the Timbers pad their genuinely good run of form
with wins over…other than good teams like Minnesota, San Jose, and Seattle? Yep! But they also picked up tough wins against NYCFC and LAFC at home, and a
road draw against Atlanta and a home draw against SKC; cut it however the hell
you like, that’s 8 points from 12, aka, a good run against the league’s best
teams. Better still, the Timbers picked up points both home and away against
MLS’s weaker teams, and that’s just another goose on the rump that projects
this team’s peak a little higher than its current 5th place. The ever-widening spread of the team’s goal
differential over the last 10 games opens up still more glory, and I’ll be
damned if this team doesn’t look legit.
The Future
11 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/10
NOTES: In all honesty, the two games against Seattle present
as the biggest rock blocking this road to glory. All the same, if Portland
doesn’t more or less own the month of July, one wheel or another could come off the
bandwagon (srsly, consult their schedule and tell me how I’m wrong). To present
an alternate theory, sudden (new-acquisition or otherwise) surges by either
Vancouver or RSL could do the same, but neither team feels, like, LA or New
York ambitious. Given that, Portland has something close to the ideal
late-season and/or tournament team: hell-on-wheels to beat, and able to counter
like demons, especially against teams dumb enough to press against them. Bottom
line, I can easily see Portland finishing 3rd in the West…won’t lie, between
SKC and Dallas, higher seems like a stretch.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 23 points, 6-6-5 (3-1-4 home, 3-5-1
away), 26 gf, 34 ga (-8), 17 GP
Last 10 games: 3-3-4 (2-0-3 home, 1-3-1 away), 18 gf, 23 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-2-2
Record v OUT teams: 2-1-2
NOTES: After the goal differential…situation, nothing makes
the ‘Caps feel less like an elite team than the road losses to Philly and
Minnesota. I mean, sure, they’re in the playoffs, but that feels contingent AF
seeing how those are results for a team riding the playoff line like a tipsy
teenage skater on a rail. They could also stand to win more often where they should -
e.g., San Jose, New England, and Houston at home (even if that may something
about the last two teams because, holy shit, San Jose!). Who knows? Maybe being
a safe home team will carry them to the post-season. All the same, it won’t
take them deep enough into the playoffs for anyone to care.
The Future
9 home games remaining; 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 11/6
NOTES: In a situation that’s more or less unique to
Vancouver, they need to pick up as many points as possible over their next 10
games. Why? Because they have a crazy 2/8 Split on their IN/OUT equation -
i.e., they’ll be playing teams struggling against La Brea-esque entanglements
to launch in this 2018. If Vancouver can’t rack up more than half the points
over that time, and against San Jose twice, Colorado, DC and Minnesota, jesus,
how can you not write ‘em off? And what can draw a darker line under that than
noting that they close 2018 against Portland and SKC at home and LAFC on the
road?
Houston Dynamo - 21 points, 6-6-3 (5-2-0 home, 1-4-3 away),
31 gf, 24 ga (+8), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 5-4-1 (4-0-0 home, 1-4-1 away), 22 gf, 17 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-2-1
Record v OUT teams: 4-2-0
NOTES: Houston doesn’t do a lot of draws and that underlines
their volatility; they can score on just about anyone, but they also let every
other team score on them. Finally, they’re dying on the road lately, as demonstrated by
away losses to Montreal and RSL (losing to SKC in their last game makes
sense). Not much about this team has changed since I watched a couple of their games
early earlier this season, basically, and I don’t see any reason to expect them
to change. Injuries have been both unkind and inconveniently concentrated on
the defensive side of the squad - and that could explain a thing or two.
The Future
10 home games remaining; 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 12/7
NOTES: Given the tough schedule ahead (FC Dallas X3,
Portland X2, etc.), Houston gets a little lucky in having the balance of their
games against IN teams in Houston. Their best chance to survive to the playoffs
turns on a couple teams (say, the Galaxy and the Sounders) failing to get their
shit together. If that happens, Houston will end 2018 with a pretty soft run of
games. If it doesn’t , I'd put money on Houston’s 2018 ending early.
Los Angeles Galaxy - 20 points, 6-7-2 (4-4-0 home, 2-3-2
away), 22 gf, 23 ga (-1), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 4-5-1 (2-3-0 home, 2-2-1 away), 15 gf, 15 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-4-2
Record v OUT teams: 3-1-0
NOTES: Having Houston listed immediately above sharpens the
picture on LA, because Houston is the only OUT team that LA failed to beat over
their last 10. When they line up against the IN teams, especially the better
ones, the Galaxy loses, home and away notwithstanding (they beat RSL in LA,
but, if you rate RSL as marginal...also, Portland’s failure to beat LA in
Portland makes the “better team” label harder to apply). Injury hasn’t held
them back much - or it isn’t right now - and that points to structural
deficiencies, as well as a certain lack of ambition (cough…Sigi Schmid…cough,
cough) that feels more than a little out of character.
The Future
9 home games remaining; 10 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/11
NOTES: LA’s second-half schedule does them a number of
favors - with a concentration of them running from Games 22-26 (dig this: v
ORL, @COL, v MIN, v COL, @ SEA). Overall, they’ve got more easy
games/circumstances than tough ones - the latter includes two games against new neighbors LAFC and
another against SKC - makes at least a case that they’ve put their hardest
games behind them. Given the softness of the Western Conference underbelly, LA
can get back on the good side of the playoff by turning a couple of those
losses to draws. I wouldn’t put a ton of money on that, but stranger things
have happened.
Minnesota United FC - 16 points, 5-9-1 (4-2-0 home, 1-7-0
away), 19 gf, 29 ga (-10), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 3-6-1 (3-1-1 home, 0-5-0 away), 13 gf, 20 ga
Record v IN teams: 1-4-1
Record v OUT teams: 2-2-0
NOTES: No one feels good about losing to Colorado, even on
the road, but numbers don’t lie: Minnesota loses to pretty much every team on
the road (congrats, Orlando!). Playing on a margin like that means the Loons
can’t afford to lose home games to San Jose, and yet they did, and what wins
they’ve got came against troubled-to-struggling teams like Montreal, Houston
and Vancouver. Injury has been crueler to Minnesota than most teams - losing
Sam Cronin, Kevin Molino, then Ethan Finlay hurts like a mother in context, and
none of those guys are coming back any time soon, if ever. In short, things
have been bleak.
The Future
10 home games remaining; 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 12/7
NOTES: They also don’t look likely to improve for the Loons.
Set aside those 10 home games and the good news dries up pretty damn quick; if
they can’t get at least a couple wins out of their coming run of home games -
most of them against either IN teams, or struggling teams (e.g. TFC, Seattle)
hungry to right their own ship - their five-game road trip in August could bury
their season under too much dirt for them to dig out of. Barring a new signing or three,
I can’t see Minnesota getting anything better than disappointment out of this
season. Sometimes think this bunch never got all the way out of the USL…
Seattle Sounders FC - 12 points, 3-8-3 (2-3-2 home, 1-5-1
away), 11 gf, 18 ga (-7), 14 GP
Last 10 games: 3-5-2 (2-1-2 home, 1-4-0 away), 9 gf, 11 ga
Record v IN teams: 0-5-1
Record v OUT teams: 3-0-1
NOTES: That Seattle scored nearly their entire puny haul of
goals over their last 10 borders on implausible, but that, along with their
improving record would give cause for optimism…if the same Sounders team didn’t
keep getting its ass kicked by the league’s finer teams. Bad on the road, bad
against good teams, MLS’s best defense, meet MLS’s worst offense, etc. Some of
that can be put down to injury - losing Jordan Morris, especially - and, with
Roman Torres reportedly returning broken from the World Cup and Stefan Frei
going down to concussion, those show absolutely zero sign of letting up. I just
saw they signed a Peruvian player, someone I know absolutely nothing about, but
it’d take a Superman turn this team around, one with powers he can transfer
across the squad. I know I’ve cited Seattle as a team that might improve by
season’s end, but the closer you look, the more unlikely that feels.
The Future
10 home games remaining, 10 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/10
NOTES: If the Sounders do get better, their last six games
(or more; pretty much everything after September 15, really, @ VAN), all of
them against OUT teams, might help them slop into the post-season like fattened
seals. They’ll need to get more than half the points out of a semi-tough July
and August to make that matter and have I mentioned they’re also down one
starting fullback (Kelvin Leerdam)? They’ve got Portland next (tomorrow, in fact),
a big ask at this time, even at home. I mean, sure, rivalries get crazy, but
that’s their game in hand on most of the West and you can bet they'd rather be hosting Orlando. Between this team’s age and
injury, I can’t see Nicolas Lodeiro’s prediction for another run to MLS Cup
holding up; I can’t even see this team in the post-season.
Colorado Rapids - 12 points, 3-9-3 (3-4-2 home, 0-5-1 away),
19 gf, 28 ga (-9), 15 GP
Last 10 games: 1-8-1 (1-4-1 home, 0-4-0 away), 9 gf, 23 ga
Record v IN teams: 0-6-0
Record v OUT teams: 1-2-1
NOTES: Only Orlando and Montreal have seen the misery the
Rapids know so well. All eight of their losses over the past 10 games came one
after another, a dizzying flame-out that answers the question of why Minnesota
fans feel so damn blue. As noted above, those losses piled up against a string
of IN teams, and some of the best ones too. Colorado’s defense basically
collapsed during that stretch, and that killed off the best thing this team had
in its favor (and for the past several seasons). Losing Kortne Ford and Axel
Sjoberg goes some way to explaining that, but this team hasn’t been the same
since they shipped Sam Cronin to Minnesota.
The Future
8 home games remaining, 11 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/10
NOTES: If they can’t get just about everything out of Games
17-24 (v SEA, @ MTL, v HOU, @ RSL, @ DC, v LA, v SJ, @ LA), I’m talking 3/4 of
the points at a minimum, the Rapids look set for one shitty season. Their
schedule steers back through too many IN teams after that and more games on the
road. If you have stock in Colorado, now would be a great time to sell.
San Jose Earthquakes - 11 points, 2-9-5 (1-4-2 home, 1-5-3
away), 25 gf, 32 ga (-7), 16 GP
Last 10 games: 1-6-3 (0-2-1 home, 1-4-2 away), 14 gf, 19 ga
Record v IN teams: 0-3-3
Record v OUT teams: 1-3-0
NOTES: And yet, in spite of the Rapids' fucking gruesome losing
streak, the ‘Quakes slipped past them and into the Western Conference
cellar. San Jose isn’t getting slaughtered - you can see that in their goal
differential - and the combination of road games and games against IN teams
might lighten their eminently reasonable distress, but you can’t be worse than
Colorado and Seattle and feel anything like good about your season/life.
Injuries don’t explain it, so it all goes back to having either a bad team or a
broken one.
The Future
10 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/8
NOTES: It just gets worse from there, actually. The IN teams
they’ve been losing to (e.g., RSL, New England, Vancouver) aren’t the best ones
(e.g. Dallas, SKC); not only are those games ahead, they’re distributed fairly
evenly between now and what sure as hell looks like an early end to San Jose’s
season. That means they’ll have to generate their own momentum, because the
schedule sure as hell ain’t gonna do it.
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