New York City FC 1-0 Columbus Crew SC: Scouting One Half of Hell

Yeah, no.

The first thing you have to take into account when New York City FC squares off against Columbus Crew SC is the simple fact that NYCFC is better, player to player. Jonathan Mensah played a damned solid game last Saturday and, within the first half at least, he was Columbus’ one, and nearly only, key player. NYCFC’s Maxime Chanot, meanwhile, played imperious throughout. Hell, Alexander Ring stopped at least three attacks by lunging his foot at the ball and gaining position; there’s a movie analogy for this and I’m loudly dying inside right now because I can’t dredge it up. Honestly, NYCFC made the defensive plays look so easy that it hardly mattered they (mostly) ran out of ideas on the attacking side by game’s end.

Columbus, meanwhile, held fast to one burning idea in the first half: do not allow a goal, even if it means playing Eduardo Sosa as a defensive forward midfielder (no typo). NYC responded by putting up most of their chances (shots turned out to be generous) during that same half; they had a 10-plus-shot-to-dick advantage, a 70/30 possession edge as late as the 55^th minute, and the one goal they’d need to put away the game (sneaky little shit of a goal too). The game ended at a sleepy 1-0.

The Crew came out to play in the second half and it showed; maybe it only took trotting out one of their real regulars - Pedro Santos, the inheritor of the injured Federico Higuain’s duties. They created a couple chances, they pressed a little, and, in general, they stymied NYCFC. And that’s the other key detail: Columbus sacrificed this result to rest key players – e.g., they didn’t start Santos and neither Wil Trapp nor Gyasi Zardes played at all (take it from a Portland fan; starting David “Fucking” Guzman is pure desperation). Crew SC kept its powder dry for Sunday, so 1) don’t expect them to bunker for the first half against FC Cincinnati, 2) they clearly thought they had a better chance to get three points out of the Queen City, 3) they’re totally fucking coming for you like a shitty Liam Neeson vehicle.

With that said, here’s how Columbus is, or has been (that’s “bean,” the English pronunciation) over its last 10 games:

COLUMBUS CREW SC, 7-15-6, 27 points, 29 gf, 42 ga, (5-6-4 home, 2-9-2 away)

Last 10 games: LLLDWWDDDL (2-4-4)

Last 10 at home: LWDD

Last 10 away: LLDWDL

L	L	L	D	W	W	D	D	D	L
a RSL	v SEA	a ORL	a CHI	v MTL	a NYR	a SJ	v CIN	v TFC	a NYC
0-1	1-2	0-1	2-2	2-1	3-2	1-1	2-2	2-2	0-1

Who They Are in One Sentence: Not good enough to make the playoffs, but good enough to kill some other marginal team’s dream, as demonstrated by the respectably decent results above – e.g., the draws at Chicago and San Jose, winning at Red Bulls.

Remaining Games. @ CIN (8/25), v CHI (8/31), @ ATL (9/14). @ VAN (9/21), v PHI (9/29), @ TFC (10/6).

Assuming Columbus doesn’t cede a whole damn half to Cincinnati – I’d actually put down money on them trying to bury the game early – and with the squad rotation noted above, the loss to NYCFC doesn’t feel terribly predictive for the next spin through Heck Is Real. Going the other way, they felt good enough at the end of the first half to bring on Santos to see if they couldn’t steal it. All that increased aggression gained them a scrap or two, but NYCFC won this on autopilot – and largely for the following reasons:

NEW YORK CITY FC, 12-5-8, 44 points, 46 gf, 32 ga, (7-1-4 home, 5-4-4 away)

Last 10 games: WLLWWLWLWW (6-4-0)

Last 10 at home: WLWWW

Last 10 away: LWLLW

W	L	L	W	W	L	W	L	W	W
v SEA	v POR	a NYR	a COL	v SKC	a RSL	v HOU	a ATL	a CIN	v CLB
3-0	0-1	1-2	2-1	3-1	1-3	3-2	1-2	4-1	1-0

Who They Are in One Sentence: A good defensive team (ht: Maxime Chanot, Alexander Ring), with enough attacking pieces to stay competitive (e.g., Maxi Moralez, Anton Tinnerholm, Heber).

Remaining Games: v RBNY (8/24), @ VAN (8/31), v NE (9/7), v TFC (9/11), v SJ (9/14), @ FCD (9/22), @ ATL (9/25), @ NE (9/29), @ PHI (10/6).

When they take the field next Sunday, Columbus and Cincinnati will basically play for bragging rights. Columbus has a narrow shot at the post-season and, (my) hopeful speculation on who will stay aside, I’m not entirely certain how many Cincy players have a meaningful shot at playing for their jobs – i.e., how much will follow from works (what they do on the field) and how much from predestination (e.g., contract status, the existence of viable available replacements, etc.)

As for what happens on the field, and as noted above, I expect Columbus to try to knock off Cincinnati before they wake up – or at least that’s what I’d go with. Because they’re playing at home, and doing every last thing to keep their fans from bailing before they buy that awesome Camaro (aka, the new stadium; oh, and they’re playing for their ongoing and future employment), I expect Cincinnati to push back just as hard. I In other words, I expect a game of intensity (when two teams hate each other very much, they come together and make a rivalry).

The bigger question I have, but can’t answer, is whether Columbus will show the same vulnerabilities they did against NYC. For instance, will they defend by crowding the area and dropping super-deep – especially when a fullback (or winger) gets around the outside of the defense? Sticking with the same thought, will they let a fullback play high enough to push against the defensive line, as they allowed Tinnerholm to do? Finally, can Cincinnati find the gaps that gradually opened in and among the two banks of four that Columbus defended with – or, to put that another way, did Columbus’ players drift into disconnect, or did NYC’s passing and movement pull them apart? Based on what I saw, Columbus opened the gaps on their own and NYC’s attackers slipped into those spaces, often walking. It’ll be interesting to see. Well, maybe.

All in all, I expect Columbus to do their usual thing – play to Zardes and go from there. Columbus has an edge in talent (e.g., most places in the line-up), so they’re a better team, but without actually being a good one. I do get the feeling, though, that they circled this one on the calendar, not because Rivalry Week, but because they believe they can get the points.