Tuesday, August 11, 2020

Portland Timbers 2-1 Orlando City SC: Your Asterisks Can Fuck Off

A holy grail.
First, how was that so satisfying? In form, the Magical World of Major League Soccer, aka, #MWoMLS, aka, #MLSIsBack, felt closest to the distilled version of the U.S. Open Cup that I’ve been psychically willing into existence since 2010 (if only low-key). On the other hand, like any playoff arrangement that (so long as you make it) washes away the sins of what came before (if only to an extent), this tournament felt like any other set of playoffs, only with a three-game “regular season” before it, which left precious little time for the finding of feet and the sorting out of issues for most teams involved.

Put in that last, specific contest, it’s less of a surprise that an experienced - or, in a more clarifying phrasing, a grounded - Portland Timbers team kept their collective heads in a refreshingly back-and-forth final 2-1 over a highly-deserving Orlando City SC that I expect we’ll all hear from in the near-future…long-term looks trickier, but their path looks surer than it did before this tournament.

There’s no question in my mind that having the more familiar set of assumptions won the game for Portland. And that’s where the urge to credit Orlando really kicks in: Diego Chara and Eryk Williamson never dominated the midfield like they had over some past games in this tournament. Both the Timbers’ game-plan and the way Orlando plays made putting pressure on the ball a game of laying traps, especially where the space gets tighter, and exploiting them. Some teams - LAFC springs to mind here - seek to overwhelm the opposition by throwing more players and passes at them than they can manage. Orlando, meanwhile, ran in a couple gears tonight: it was mostly methodical prying for openings - see the fucking crazy disparity in passes/possession - but they showed a pretty decent capacity to bull-rush players into Portland’s penalty area down the stretch (e.g., the only example from the highlights, but there were more); the general level of control was impressive, basically, and Orlando looked as likely as Philadelphia did to tie the game late. The way I see it, Portland fans have seen their team cough up enough leads to truly appreciate the occasions when they don’t do it. That detail alone made the Magical World of Major League Soccer a little more magical for Timbers fans than for anyone else in MLS…and people are already slagging this trophy, aren’t they? Yes…I can feel the energy seeping into my consciousness as I type. Bastards…

I have a couple more notes on Orlando before moving on. First, if you’ve looked into their history at all, you’ll know that defense has killed them for as long as they’ve been a(n MLS) franchise. As such, seeing them look as solid as they do during the run of play - not just tonight, but throughout the tournament (insofar as I watched them) - could be the brightest sign for their future. They look like they have something in Robin Jansson and Antonio Carlos, and credit to them for that…but, as a midfield obsessive, between received reputation and having seen Mauricio Pereyra over a full 90, I think Orlando has landed one hell of a player. He looks to have Diego Chara’s stamina and ball-hunting instincts, plus what looks like a slightly-elevated attacking skill-set. The headlines might go to Nani - and deservedly based on what he’s done in this tournament - but Pereyra feels more like the franchise player, especially given that he’s only 30.

As for Nani, he got more than a little frustrated tonight - except that one time, when he froze Portland’s Chris Duvall three times or so on the way to setting up Orlando’s goal (scored by Pereyra). The fact that was relatively rare tonight feels like the big talking point about the Timbers’ 2020 so far - i.e., a game-plan that relies on the fullbacks more for defense than attacking width. Portland crossed the ball only 12 times tonight (link above) and, even if he had more, I only remember one of them coming from Duvall; hold on, I’ve done some filtering with the OPTA chart and see that was the only one that came from Timbers’ fullbacks and that points to a big, useful switch that I’ve seen people talk about here and there - e.g., the idea of fullbacks primarily as defenders and passing hubs to make the attack project forward; it’s about moving away from the genuinely fun Jorge Moreira and/or generally “we cross” concept. It’s a good look in that it gives you a solid back-four foundation, while also meaning playing away from an attacking ethos that never served the Timbers well. Moreover, from a stand-point of having Chara and Williamson (who, holy shit) buzzing, it also means they’re rarely out of options for an outlet pass…so let us praise this as the ultimate solution until it becomes the thing that other teams have used to game-plan us into oblivion. God bless professional sports…moving on…

One of the biggest talking points going into this final - and, honestly, from the semifinals going forward - was the idea of an Orlando team that couldn’t be pressed due to their comfort in possession. My perception of how the Timbers managed the game follows from that rumor - i.e., they saw pressing as futile, so they dared Orlando to beat them (hence Chara and Williamson ceding control of midfield) and, frankly, it was close. As happened against in the semifinal against the Philadelphia Union, Portland did not score beautiful goals to win this final, so much as they designed better plays. That applies more to Larry Mabiala’s game-opening goal, something that looked like a set-piece drawn up on the training ground. Portland’s second goal, on the other hand, a Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance moment (that will never pay off with the same consistency), when Williamson’s knack for creating space sent a shot toward goal where (the, frankly, oft-abused tonight) Jeremy Ebobisse tapped it onto Dario Zuparic for the game-winner, would have felt lucky as fucking fuck had it not followed from a spell of pressure, one created by the game-states that the Timbers create like few teams in MLS, to their fans eternal satisfaction (e.g., this tournament) and distress (every single fucking time it doesn’t come off, and they aren’t infrequent).

The truly bizarre thing is…that’s it. There’s not really a lot to say about this game (though I will) beyond acknowledging that Orlando looked prettier and more controlled while the Timbers proved to be, and I mean this literally and the numbers back me up, more effective (fuck it, the numbers back me up, so I'm repeating). If anything, that singular spell of pressure that led to Portland’s second goal defines who they are right now as a team: they have an “on-switch,” a game-changing ability to find a second gear that few teams have accessed for as long as the Magical World of Major League Soccer has gone on. It’s been nothing short of uncanny so far and…that just won the Timbers a trophy…

…about that, it looks like an after-thought. And who advertises an after-thought. MLS: that’s your answer.

The rest of this post indulges in the fantasy that the MLS season will continue from here, that the six-game series already planned will extend to something further, which will extend to a 2020 final in whatever form that ultimately takes. For what it’s worth, I think COVID will catch up with the best laid plans before too long, but I also thought the Magical World of Major League Soccer would end with a rush of infections and it didn’t, and that’s what humility is really all about - i.e., accepting when you’ve been wrong. So, in the spirit of believing there will be an MLS Cup in 2020, I’ll close with some stray notes. In no particular order…

- Seeing your team’s centerbacks score both goals in a win can mean a number of things, but that feels closer to Portland finding different ways to score (e.g., largely off set-pieces) at this point. If the as-to-fore unmentioned Sebastian Blanco not been a good, now likely, bet for MLS Is Back MVP, I’d be more worried. But, both Valeri and Ebobisse scored three goals through the tournament, and Blanco matched for assists. But what really stands out about the Timbers’ attack in 2020 is the willingness to return to playing difficult/dangerous passes. To state the broad point on the theory, the simple willingness to play passes into difficult places only matters when it comes off and the Timbers nailed this down during the MLS Is Back tournament. There was a moment in the first half, one that ended with Marvin Loria more or less tripping over the ball in Orlando’s area, but everything that came before it involved a succession of passes that sent the Orlando defense into a full-blown panic. Low percentage as they can be, those are the passes that break a defense. The more often your offense can play with even bare success, the likelier they are to rattle a defense. Panic and/or over-reaction are the keys to success…

- Larrys Mabiala ranks second in my personal pantheon of Portland central defenders, right after Nat Borchers (yes, Liam Ridgewell is third for me…and now I have my poll), and the way he blocked a shot on goal right after putting the Timbers ahead is a big reason I’m high on him (no video? seriously?). A good central defender always needs a partner and, golly, if Zuparic doesn’t look like the guy that asked me to prom when I really needed the boost and/or a good way to get into prom. Bottom line, Zuparic has settled nicely and, I think most people would agree with me here, the Timbers are quite a bit better when they have a strong defense behind them…

…in fact, that could be the greatest truism in MLS, i.e., that the best teams in league history are the ones with the stingiest defenses (I willl confirm this before the end of August, promise). That’s no surprise either, not with the cliché about defenses winning championships pretty well universal around spectator spots. Whether that’s true or not, having a good-to-great defense is one of those reliable strengths that the best teams sensibly use as a back-stop, and the Timbers look to have one now. Honestly, Zuparic looks like one of the Timbers better signings in a while so far.

- The same thing that has made Portland a straight-up nightmare since Valeri, and later Blanco, came on board still pertains: if Portland can break your pressure, they’ll fucking kill you in transition. There, the issue is playing out of the back and in control. Even when it’s not a pure counter situation, that means getting the ball from the defense to the midfield to the 007s on the roster - e.g., Valeri and Blanco. This is where I believe Williamson has excelled: his passing may fall short of great/epic for now (a deliberately high bar), but his capacity to create space to make a pass skips a couple steps to next-level. Based on what I saw tonight, Williamson plays in vein that runs parallel to Mauricio Pereyra, and the distance between ain’t far.

All that points to a promising future, whenever that happens, but also assuming it happens fast enough to see Valeri, Blanco and Diego Chara compete in a CONCACAF Champions’ League. On a deeper level, the Timbers have a couple good years ahead with this team, circumstances…shit, what’s the word there? Permitting? Allowing? Being Practical?

I’m not going to think about that for now. I’m just going to be happy. Happy that the Timbers won a tournament that any other team in the league could have won, only they didn’t. And that’s the fun thing anyone can say when people want to hang an asterisk on what just happened: every team in MLS came into this tournament riding a blank slate; the Timbers were the only team to raise the trophy. We are the weird champions, motherfuckers

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