Saturday, January 15, 2022

MLS Weakly, January 15, 2022: The SuperDraft Is a Bright, Shining Lie & Notes on Aging (and Agless) Players

At least Buyer 1205 knows what he's getting...probably.
Welcome to the…next one. Though Major League Soccer’s preseason has officially started for some and will start for others tomorrow, fans remain in that space in between 2021 and 2022. Which explains why The Mothership is running “stories” like “One reason every MLS team should feel optimistic as the 2022 preseason begins” (a slap in the face, frankly, to certain teams) and a pair of half-stale reminders about worries for each team in the Eastern and Western conferences. I get it. You do what you have to do to remind people you’re still pecking at the keyboard…as you can see…

That doesn’t mean the league hasn’t seen some eye-popping moves - e.g., Toronto FC singing Lorenzo Insigne (a move so big one only has to type “toronto fc italian” to find articles), the Seattle Sounders poaching Albert Rusnak from Real Salt Lake, and the mid-week mega-trade that sent Kellyn Acosta from the Colorado Rapids to Los Angeles FC (though didn’t the teams basically just swap defensive midfielders/No. 8s? And who would you rather have: Mark-Anthony Kaye or Acosta?). I acknowledge that’s a damned short list - and, surely, other, smaller trades are percolating as I type, even if some fall within comparatively meaningless reports of teams “showing interest” or “making a bid” - but the 2022 MLS SuperDraft has to count as last week’s biggest story.

Or is it nothing but a bright, shining lie?

With a nod to the hyped phrasing, I’m willing to let the reader decide. As for methodology, I reviewed all the MLS SuperDrafts since 2013 (and here are the rest of the links: 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021, and I wound up on nine years, because I can't count so good), looked at the total number of players picked or passed on, and weighed that against the number of players who have: 1) become reliable starters in MLS (or who later moved overseas), and 2) been able to secure reliable minutes, if fewer of them, aka, journeymen. Also, and because I might have noticed it for the first time, I looked at all the players signed as homegrown players since then to make a similar comparison. Two minor caveats on that: that sample did not include players who were eligible for one draft or another, but who signed elsewhere (e.g., Andrew Gutman for Scotland's Celtic), and who knew that the New England Revolution’s Matt Turner came into the league under “other notable player” in 2016, whatever that means.

Next, some definitions: “reliable starter” means a regular on one or more starting rosters since joining MLS, a definition that grows more flexible with the more recent SuperDrafts, e.g., I doubt anyone would quibble with calling Andrew Farrell or Walker Zimmerman a “reliable starter,” but that’s a tougher call with players like, say, DeJuan Jones, Chris Mueller, or even Richie Laryea. And yet I counted them all. Moreover, I drew a blurry line on either side of the players I dubbed “journeymen,” which group includes some now and former useful players, e.g., Kekuta Manneh, Dominique Badji, Tsubasa Endoh, Jonathan Lewis, Jacori Hayes, or even Danny Musovski. At any rate, I made the choices I did and if you want to look at the same source material and make your own calls, the links are above. For what it’s worth, I don’t think you’ll wind up on wildly different numbers if you do, but I also freely acknowledge that I no less about every team in MLS with each team they add.

Now, the numbers:

Total “Chances” (total number of available draft picks, 2013-2021): 718
Total Reliable Starters via SuperDraft: 36
Total Journeymen via SuperDraft: 32
Total Homegrown Players: 69
Total Reliable Starters Homegrown: 13
Total Journeymen Homegrown: 9

To restate those as percentages: the SuperDraft has a 5% success rate at finding starters and a 4.4% success rate at identifying journeymen; the Homegrown system has a rate of return of 18.8% for starters and 13% for journeyman. Just to note it, those last two numbers combine to less than 50% (31.8%), but 1 in 3 beats the hell out of 1 in 20.

I offer all the above by way of contextualizing the 2022 SuperDraft. Again, I’ll leave it up to you to decide whether those numbers translate as bright shining lie. What I can say, and with certainty, neither the Portland Timbers nor FC Cincinnati (the two teams I follow) have landed either reliable starter or journeyman via the SuperDraft…not unless you count Aaron Long, who the Timbers drafted in 2014 only to let him go, and, wow, did they fuck up that one.

Related, are the players that Portland and Cincinnati SuperDrafted this past week:

Cincinnati: Roman Celentano (2nd overall; listed as GK/D(?)), Ian Murphy (14th overall, D), Nicholas Markanich (30th overall, F)

Portland: Justin Rasmussen (26th overall, D on draft board, M per one mock draft), Julian Bravo (55th overall, D), Sivert Haugli (83rd overall, D).

Between the larger history and the track records for both teams, I doubt any of us will see those names again, but best of luck, fellas!

That’s pretty much it for MLS-wide notes. I don’t really know how Insigne will do, but he’ll have a great foil in Alejandro Pozuelo, and my only thought on Rusnak is where he’ll fit among Nico Lodeiro (when healthy…oh), Joao Paulo, Cristian Roldan and, arguably, Jordan Morris. And I think Acosta will do fine with LAFC and I keep seeing rumors about what the Rapids will do with the stack of cash they got in return. Because I like Colorado pretty much all the time they're not playing Portland or Cincinnati, I hope it's something good.

Now, to wrap up with some quick notes on the teams followed in this space:

FC Cincinnati
The banner headline on FC Cincinnati’s main news page is the re-signing of Nick Hagglund (who I counted as a journeymen, for what it's worth). Nothing to see here, in other words. Wait, no, Cincy also signed a defensive depth piece named John Nelson. Of which, the report on him shows the current roster, which confirms reports I’ve seen about Cincinnati not having a lot for flexibility going into 2022. All I can say is, make those few choices count, y’all.

Oops. One more thing: FC Cincinnati’s (meaningful) preseason schedule shows the following: February 3 v Philadelphia Union (in Clearwater, FL), February 11 v Saint Louis City (same venue) and February 18 v Orlando City SC. Here’s to hoping either the team or the league puts those games where fans can see them (c’mon, do the right thing, ya bastards).

Portland Timbers
First, the only game showing on Portland's preseason calendar right now is a preseason game in the Arizona desert against Seattle (see note to bastards above). Elsewhere, it’s possible the biggest news in Portland soccer happened off the field, but I’ll bury that at the bottom. Back on the field, I believe Timbers fans now have (effective) confirmation that Diego Valeri will leave this winter - more below (though not much) - but still waits on confirmation about Sebastian Blanco’s status. In other news, Renzo Zambrano's departure looks thoroughly official. It was good to have Zambrano around to give the (aging, or should be*) starters a breather, and I wish him all the best, but it doesn’t feel unfair to acknowledge that his departure counts as a blip in the big picture.

The biggest, arguably weirdest news of the past week came with word that Portland signed (* the ageless) Diego Chara to an extension through the 2024 season. To make a confession, a record scratch went off in my head when I saw the length of the extension - and I appreciate that came against the evidence. Again, yes, Chara had a loud shout (if not the loudest one) as the Timbers’ MVP during the 2021 MLS Cup - and, yes, that did come after another whole goddamn, undeniably solid season. For the full and permanent record, I hereby acknowledge that the man has shown a real capacity to adjust and/or no meaningful sign of losing a step, but…I mean, age has to hit him at some time. Right? I ask the question with some trepidation because I honestly don’t know what I’d type in 2024 if Chara’s still getting regular minutes and I still want to believe in science, even if it's the science of aging. We need certainty in these times, people.

Talk of regular minutes turns the conversation to Valeri, sadly. While I’ve offered “spot eulogies” - i.e., several mentions scattered among various posts down the years as to how blessed Timbers fans should feel to have one of the best players in MLS history to watch week in-and-out since 2013 - and I remain blown away that he surprised me with a strong (if fucked up) 2020 season, a part of me big enough to notice has powerfully mixed feelings about his 2021 season. More bluntly, I…yes, I hate that Valeri's time as a Timber ended the way it did. I don’t mean that in terms of front office bullshit (i.e., the as yet still-muted farewell), but in the sense that a player that legitimately great deserved a better coda to his career in Portland than 10 starts plus about twice as many appearances as a sub - and not a “super” one. I don’t know whether it could have ended otherwise on the field (I’m not much on counter-factuals), but Diego Valeri damn-skippy deserved a better story.

I won’t pretend to know what went on in Valeri’s head all season, or claim he would have preferred to be paraded around the field in some way after the final whistle in an MLS Cup the Timbers lost (though I’m guessing very much not), but I doubt he or any fan envisioned his time in Portland ending the way it did. Best case, he’ll come back to the team in some official capacity, but, because he doesn’t belong to me or any fan, I mostly wish him all the best for the rest of his years. Between here and there, I hope he finds some minutes with Lanus back in Argentina.

Back to the entire…Chara thing, rumors of a new player arriving made a little more sense of the length of that contract extension. The same day Chara’s extension hit the twitters, MLS’s in-house bloodhound, Tom Bogert, reported that Portland “has interest” in a 19-year-old player/potential mentee named David Ayala from Argentina’s Estudiantes. As someone who often panics about transitions (change?! AAAAGGHHH!), that’s music to my ears…and now here I go fantasizing about that contract extension turning into an assistant coach’s job for Chara. While I’m fantasizing, look, it’s 2024 and Valeri’s an assistant coach as well. And, oh look, Nat Borchers is there too. And Jack Jewsbury, and Rodney Wallace! Yay, happy thoughts!!

“We always ask each other: when is this going to be fun again?”

I couldn’t have put it any better, Jo Thomson, present, waffling Timbers season ticket holder. That perfect thought concluded Caitlin Murray’s ESPN article about the further strained relationship between the Portland Timbers/Thorns front office and both teams’ most durable, colorful, and loudest fans. As noted in the piece, Timbers’ ownership/management has shut down its regular meetings with the 107 Independent Supporters Trust, a choice that I don’t see ending well, no matter how adversarial/grating those meetings might have become by last October. From the front office’s perspective, that communicates either a belief they can do without the most visible part of the Timbers/Thorns brand, or that those fans will grumble (perhaps loudly) but ultimately keep showing up and singing for both teams. I won’t claim to know how big a gamble that is, but one statement in Murray’s report stuck with me since reading it:

“Now, after a 2021 season rocked by accusations of sexual abuse and controversy, tensions have flared again for some of these hardcore fans who worry the club's values don't match their own.”

I have opinion on all of that, ones that don’t feel worth re-hashing (or even hashing) at length. The short version, I’m much less exercised about the Iron Front/Sydny Nasello things - i.e., I see them as self-inflicted idiocies worthy of varying degrees of protest - but I really do feel for the season ticket holders wrestling over what to do about the Paul Riley scandal. And that’s exactly what made that quote stand out.

The thing with Riley has more to do with simple morality than “values.” Once one accepts the premise that Riley did it - which I believe all concerned have by now - there is no need for an “investigation.” The whole thing becomes a blunt yes/no question for both Merritt Paulson and Gavin Wilkinson: did you knowingly give a coach who abused both his position and his players your effective blessing to continue working as a coach? Both men knew answer before all this went public and, yes, it is insulting to see them pretend otherwise. Very much related, the fact that neither man has denied it outright says a lot, if not everything.

People will do with that what they will and, again, I don’t envy them the choice. I rarely go to games, which already makes it easier for me, but I’ve never thought much of Paulson - or any child born to wealth - either. I’d go as far as saying this doesn’t surprise me: letting one another off the hook is what rich assholes do, rich assholes own professional sports teams, therefore, it’s all pretty baked in, etc. Moreover, demanding Paulson sell the team isn’t that far from wishing for a herd of baby unicorns that will never, ever grow up on your birthday - i.e., it’s something that will only happen in a far, far better world. As for Gavin, nothing in the “fact pattern” one paragraph above suggests he’s the victim of a witch hunt, so I don’t see any moral hazard in canning him. Sadly, that isn't the same as thinking it’ll happen.

I don’t like that any more than most the people I interact with, but I imagine I’ll keep giving the front office my eyeballs for the foreseeable future, but only the players get my heart.

Till the next one...

3 comments:

  1. So what we have is a pi$$ing contest between vocal SJW's to whom the sport being played is secondary to the presumed woke audience in the stands and at home, and a privileged son of wealth who got the Timbers as an ancillary part of a minor league baseball team purchase in 2007.

    And be careful what you wish for when you hope Paulson would sell. You must be presuming that a new owner would only care about ethical sports success - and who cares about profits? Well, we're not going to get sovereign fund owners with budgets beyond measure. Making the Timbers into the Man City of MLS means we'd be still less important than the champions of the Dutch Eredivisie on the football world stage. It's not where the smart money would go unless you're looking decades out. The best ownership hope for MLS teams currently is a billionaire who lives in your town and cares about it. The list of Oregon billionaires is short(2), but Phil Knight only cares about pointy ball football, as do the absentee Vulcan Inc. folks running the Blazers and Seahawks. And who knows if 68 year old Timothy Boyle of Columbia Sportswear follows soccer?
    So, possibly the devil you know rather than some random group of moneyed bro's as owners - who might be a lot more penurious than Merritt?

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  2. Shit. I really need to figure out how to change the background color/font in the replies to comments...

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  3. I think you're seeing more forest than trees in my notes. The question in play isn't about profits or (in my mind) a fantasy about the Timbers being a global soccer power: it's about holding an organization that, to coin a verb, "Catholic Churched" a predator/coach to another team, to some kind of account for that particular act. As I said in the above, and as I've said in the past, rich people tend to have shitty morals and a terrible habit of telling the public that ethical choices are complex when they are, in fact, simple. By virtually every accepted account, Riley abused those players; the Timbers front office admits as much with the investigation and pious talk about "doing better." As such, a mistake was made, so punish the person, or people, who made the mistake. The yes/no in this is, who showed Riley the door with that "good standing" recommendation in his hand? I very much doubt the organization is ignorant on that question.

    And there are multiple ways to make this situation whole. Even something simple as releasing the original investigation (with the victims' permission) and offering honest, public mea culpas in accordance with what it shows would go some distance. Sacrificing Wilkinson for the sins of the organization would be another, if more extreme, step.

    The substance of this reply gets at why I cringed *hard* at your use of "SJW's" and "woke" in the context of the above. Some of that has to do with my view that those words are a lazy deflection on a good day, and clown-show shit on most of them, but I understand your point. Without getting into specifics or the full complexity of the argument, I'm wary of vetting the players the Timbers/Thorns sign for ideological purity. I treated the "Iron Front" and Nasello/Ketterer thing separately for that reason, but acknowledge those are part of the larger conversation about "values." There's a large and complex conversation to be had around that, but I see the Paul Riley thing as more a question of morality, not politics.

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