Monday, March 27, 2023

The Casual Fan's Review, MLS Week 5 + A Stirring 'n' Studly Win for FC Cincinnati

Bet the housh on Houshton...shh...shhh! Listen, listen....
To kick things off with a brief editor’s note, I’ll be dialing back to the Total Coverage next week. Getting eyes on everything doesn’t seem to matter what with the season having a couple weeks under its belt and some early trends taking shape (why, hello the Form Guide!). The next five-year plan presently involves watching the usual – the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati, a real pain/joy, yin-yang experience so far this season – plus chunks of three or four other games, depending how many I can fit in and/or feel motivated to watch.

Related, I outright skipped the following games:

Charlotte FC 1-1 Red Bull New York
San Jose Earthquakes 0-0 Toronto FC
Minnesota United FC 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps

Part of that was running out of time, the other part follows from seeing these teams as known quantities. To float the loose theories, Minnesota’s plugging along nicely, I’ll watch them when I have to (probably), San Jose looks broadly all right but you just kind of sense the ceiling above, while Charlotte FC pulled out of the nose-dive...that’s it, i.e., they won't go down in a fiery crash, but who knows after that? I haven’t really worked out the two Canadian teams, but I’ve already watched both and expect to see both play footsie with the playoff line all seasons. Again, that’s expect. I don’t do predictions. Not unless I’m feeling saucy...not yet...

Now, for the team/game I’ll never skip, FC Cincinnati and whoever they happen to play on any given MLS Week. [Ed. - At least not unless I opt to take an entire weekend off.] For the record, I have organized the results below in the order of how I read their significance. Most weeks, Cincy’s result is only up top because I decided to lead with them every week, but they earned top spot up here. Better still, they done good!

Nashville SC 0-1 FC Cincinnati: Good Shit’s All Around [Full 90]
The most telling detail that comes to mind about this game is the fact that FC Cincinnati ran down Nashville’s total number of shots in a gradual, grinding way. They had the late-game flurry that Nashville never managed to produce – i.e., the flat line that runs across the latter’s xG chart on The Mothership’s stats page speaks the truth. And right where you see Nashville finally tick upward somewhere in the early-80s, you see Cincy slip further away a couple minutes later. That was the flurry, and the game.

This counts as Cincinnati’s second big win of the season – the first being that home win over the Seattle Sounders – and this one was no less comprehensive. They rode out Nashville’s best moments – most of which came in the first half and with them getting behind Cincy’s defense up the channels – survived the host’s best chance when Roman Celentano flopped in front of a corner kick that rolled off C. J. Sapong’s leg. They gave up almost nothing from there. With a little help from debutante Malik Pinto, Obinna Nwobodo out-worked/-played a very solid, if unspectacular Nashville midfield (aka, Dax McCarty and Sean Davis) in a performance that raised his stock quite a bit for me. The man’s a truly amazing mix of the Portland Timbers’ Diego Chara and...hey, Nashville’s Dax McCarty. For what it’s worth, that’s very high praise from me.

The biggest worry about this game always came with how to win it, but Cincinnati chased that away with aplomb and bells on and ringing. I, like you, would have loved to see Brenner do better with the two weak-side chances that fell to him, but with the way Nashville has been playing, Cincy only needed the one goal. Happily, it was a peach, a neat little scramble that got the usual suspects together again to do something a little special. Alvaro Barreal played a beauty – man of the match stuff, arguably – and I’m not sure anything has mattered as much to Cincy’s attack as than the mind-meld he and Luciano Acosta completed sometime late last season. In this case, that means Acosta receiving a relatively innocuous ball on Nashville’s right and back-heeling it to a streaking Barreal, who had started his run a couple tics before the ball hit Acosta’s foot. That left Shak Moore chasing and (I think) Jack Maher isolated, and with a gap to his inside; from there, Barreal cut inside to fire a shot on goal good enough to force a bobble out of a highly-capable Joe Willis, who spilled the ball to the worst possible place, aka, Brandon Vazquez.

Put all the above together, throw in some sturdy (if surprisingly clumsy) defending by Cincy’s back-line (or just Matt Miazga), and you’ve got the story of how they won the game.

As for Nashville, the game played out the same way as their loss last week to New England. For all the respectable fight they put in, they never really looked like coming back into it. They have neither a plan nor the personnel to break down a good defense, at least not reliably, and so, when they go down a goal to one of those teams...the odds of them winning spike to premium rates. As I said in the preview, they remain an MLS-average team, only with Hany Mukhtar freelancing in the attack and Walker Zimmerman as a hammer on set-pieces. They’ve surrounded those guys with decent players, guys who have their uses, but Fafa Picault, Jacob Shaffelburg, C. J. Sapong, and even Jan Gregus – who, again, Gary Smith used as a late sub to change Nashville’s approach to the attack - only raise a team’s level so high – i.e., somewhere around the playoff line, or, more accurately, as far as the defense can carry them.

Let's talk "T".
But, again, Nashville is a fucking tough team to break down. This was the second goal they’ve allowed all season. Going the other way, the quality of the chances Cincinnati created – and, for what it’s worth, I think the 1.4 in the official box score sells them short - testifies for just how potent their attack looks and this early in the season. I’m talking Nugenix levels, people, as promised by Frank Thomas by way of many tacky euphemisms. Whatever hesitation I felt about them competing for silverware this season has melted away and won’t seize up again for as long as their top 15-16 players stay whole and healthy.

From this point on, I cover the rest of MLS Week 5...with the exception of the three games/teams officially disclaimed up top. As threatened above, I listed the results in the order of their perceived importance and I try to make a case for my thinking at the end of each blurb. I also note how much study went into making my call: here, “Glance” means I watched the highlights and checked the box score and, with the games I spent more time on, I listed the minutes I watched in each. Finally, and as always, I link to The Mothership’s game summaries in the final score for each result. With that, let’s roll....

Philadelphia Union 1-2 Orlando City SC[Glance]
So I watched the wrong game(s), sue me. Fun fact (from the broadcast booth): Philly hasn’t allowed more than one goal in any game they’ve played at home over the past 35 games. Now you know why most people didn’t see this happening. And yet it did.

The Union had some big names missing – e.g., Daniel Gazdag and Jose Martinez (and did anyone else notice that the entire Venezuelan National Team seems to play in MLS?) – but Orlando had their share too (if you want to see all of them). Part of me wants to think that’s why this game failed to tickle my fancy, but the other part some guy say Philly came out flat...again and, can confirm. The Union gave up two goals that positively screamed, “but...the game plan!” – something that’s true even if the rumors about Martin Ojeda having some great moments – and they spent the rest of the game chasing it. They didn’t do so bad, either: Philly fired a lot of shots – if with literally half of target – they battled harder and, because enough of those shots looked great, they forced more saves from Orlando’s stand-in Mason Stajduhar. Feels like safe hands in Orlando, honestly.
What It All Means
Good for Orlando and all, regardless of whether they caught Philly before they pulled up their pants, but the bigger story is what’s happening with Philly. The extent to which they leave the top, or even the top playoff places open, clears space for others.

Houston Dynamo FC 1-0 New York City FC [1-15, 45-60; 80-90]
And yet this still feels like the right choice. I didn’t take a long look at this game expecting excitement, never mind titillation. I did, however, see steady, controlled performances from both sides. Did it dip into over-cautious? 100% percent. For the record, yes, I saw actual shots on goal – e.g., Corey Baird caught the corner of the goal on a clear look close to the 60th minute, Tayvon Gray off a recycled corner in the 91st – but, outside Houston’s game-winning (and deserved; again, why’d that take so long?) penalty kick, the broadcast booth reported that neither team had fired a shot on goal to the 80th minute of the game. For all that, it wasn’t a terrible game to watch: I mean “controlled” literally - i.e., both teams looked comfortable on the ball, even if Houston looked better – and to the point where you barely noticed that all the passing and running didn’t translate to either team getting within a (figurative) mile of goal...

...and then I realized I was watching Benny-ball somewhere during the 80-90 time-block. As much as I believe that, say, the absent Adalberto Carrasquilla makes Houston a little better, the attacking ceiling doesn’t look much above thigh-high to me. Another question to throw into that mix, what’s going on with last season’s big hire, forward Sebastian Ferreira? He came on for Amine Bassi – who scored the penalty kick – at the 83rd minute, aka, late, but that didn’t change the overall tenor of the game. Houston had collapsed into suffocating banks of four by then, but the whole, and largely effective game plan, boiled down to playing a tidy, smart game, limiting mistakes, and gambling as little as possible. Very much related, Artur presented as the perfect foil for that strategy. He filled gaps in the penalty area, he clogged the channels, he made the middle of the field a minefield when Houston pressed, but he got the ball rolling in the other direction in a single pass as well: he’s one hell of a No. 6 and I’m still trying to figure out Columbus’ thinking on his trade.

To finally turn to NYC, I didn’t see a lot on the attacking side from them - and the numbers (five shots total, one on goal) match my choppy eye-test, by the way. And yet, the whole “no shots on goal” feels awful fucking technical once you see Santiago Rodriguez come within slightly smoother contact with the ball of putting the ball into a goal vacated by a possibly bored, hero-in-his-own-mind Steve Clark. It was a good look and a decent shot and, as I see it, a draw would have tilted the view on this game. Instead, Houston held on to win their second game in a row, both against teams generally acknowledged as their betters. Both teams have their issues – arguably, NYC is incomplete, while Austin FC just seems to have the damn wobblies – but these are six good points for the Dynamo to have.

Better still, the way they’re playing feels replicable. NYC chased them fairly high over the first 10 minutes – notably when Houston committed to playing out of the back – but they held it together and, some mistakes and hiccups aside, they could work the ball out of the back and into the attacking third. I’ve already noted what happened when they got there, but Houston looked comfortable against a team that, even with players missing, has real talent and a decent template for play.
What It All Means
My concern here is parochial: every competent team in the Western Conference threatens to squeeze my Portland Timbers out of a place in the playoffs. From that angle, and that angle alone, I don’t like what I’m seeing outta Houston so far. (Also, excited for you guys!!)

DC United 1-2 New England Revolution[35-45; 53-65; 80-90]
I want to start by making one thing absolutely clear: DC played a solid game, they look to have a lot going for them, they move the ball well, they scored a pretty damn smart goal (and Christian Benteke still looks good), and, but for a goal-line intervention by the Revs’ DeJuan Jones (who has a shout for Man-o’-the-Match honors), they had a real shot at tying this game, and with another couple plausible chances thrown in. Again, they do not look like a bad team and, related, maybe they’ll start getting results under more favorable circumstances? But what does that do but beg the question of who a 1-3-1 DC team can beat and where. Here are there last (and first) five games: v TFC, @ CLB, v ORL, @ NYC, v NE. And they just lost their first home game, so...

New England, on the other hand, has looked more uncomplicatedly good every time I look at them. The only regular they lost to the international break was Dylan Borrero, but the two homegrown kids they had on hand and started – Esmir Bajraktarevic and Jack Panayoutou – played like regulars. DC had their best moments over the last ten minutes in the brackets above, but this Revs lineup generally looked savvy and, no matter how much the defense bent, it only broked’t that one time. Some of that had to do with a very stable core – and can I repeat that I always saw Dave Romney as a great signing one more time? – but all that got a solid assist from yet another homegrown player, the almost-generically named Noel Buck (as in, make the “n” and “j” and drop the ”l” at the end).
What It All Means
I don’t see much point in getting excited or even worried about DC until they start actually winning games. That valiant loser bullshit is for...well, losers. Like Rocky (c’mon, he would have been in a coma by the end of Rocky III). The Revs meanwhile, have managed some tricky games/venues and still sit on top of the East.

Los Angeles FC 2-1 FC Dallas[1-10; 30-35; 70-90+]
The game started with Dallas getting washed over by a black and gold wave – Ryan Hollingshead damn near walked in their first goal, just one minute before Timothy Tillman (highly effective, btw) five-holed a Dallas defender and caught Martin Paes cheating to the near side of the goal. All that happened before the clock ticked to three minutes. About 25 minutes after that, Dallas’ Ema Twumasi got sent off for a body-check that would embarrass a non-goon hockey player...and then I checked out till the end of the game.

I did that on the belief that I’d find the action thereabouts, but a couple quick notes about this game. At least 10 minutes of the time isolated above was pissed away with referees, present and remoted, going back and forth on how to call a play. There was so much thumb-up-ass time-wasted on satisfying people who value some illusory perfect fairness over people who, 1) understand that calls like this cannot be perfected, and 2) who would rather be entertained than watch a man in pink press his fingers into his ear-piece and raise his arm as he talks to the video guy for two solid fucking minutes. As the excitement ebbs slowly away, you lose another minute when the on-field ref goes to check the monitor. I don’t get who wants this. But I digress.

LAFC ultimately won the game, and with a goal by Denis Bouanga that wouldn’t have gone in 19 of 20 times shooting. More to the point, Dallas held on with one man missing from the 35th to that 84th-minute goal without giving up a goal – and, again, even that one shouldn’t really have gone in. LAFC did pick up a highly-technical (and obviously correct) penalty call (speed it the fuck up, refs) about five minutes prior, but Carlos Vela shanked his attempt off the crossbar. The bigger story is that Dallas got back into the game.

Here’s where I admit that I missed all kinds of game and point to the wild imbalance in shots, on goal and otherwise (for what it’s worth, the breakdown was 21/6 versus 7/3). And I’m compelled to point out that LAFC looked just fine; they probed the shell Dallas set up around their goal, if like alien scientists not entirely sure where to begin, but they did hold the ball, kept Dallas off-kilter, and generally dictated the game. For all that, Dallas never looked phased. It took five minutes for them to figure out how to play through and around LAFC’s press and they did it with relative ease at every minute I watched after the first five. Hell, they even did it two seconds after the broadcast booth talked about how much they relied on the partially-absent Paxton Pomykal to make it work. But that’s not what impressed me most.

Dallas scored its one and only goal when they started pressing out of their nine-field player shape, somewhere after the 70th minute, and it was a classic of the form - off a set-piece, scored by a defender, and so on. They had the confidence to hunt the game, in other words, despite playing a team defending the double, on the road, and both a man and a goal down. That’s another way of saying both of these teams will be fine, even if on different levels, and what else did you expect?
What It All Means
This game matters becomes these teams are very likely to matter and look like they already intend to.

Sporting Kansas City 1-4 Seattle Sounders[Glance]
If you’ve read (the one thing that, or) what I read, you saw Jordan Morris four times over. While Morris scored all four goals, he wouldn’t have got any of them without terrific service – the lion’s share of it from Leo Chu, by the way – and SKC’s defense nodding all the fucking way off. Seeing a Peter Vermes team fail to challenge the ball and lose track of Jordan Morris X 5, well, if that don’t make you wonder.
What It All Means
SKC is bad, obviously, but Seattle’s doing just fine – and that’s almost certainly the bigger story here, even as you watch predators mangle the prey.

Real Salt Lake 0-4 St. Louis CITY FC[Glance]
Seriously, have you ever seen any team get as many outright gifts as St. Louis has over the first five games of their MLS history? Then again, that led to their 3rd goal, so other factors may have been involved.

Once again, and even if it doesn’t entirely show up on paper, St. Louis straight-up ran over RSL, something they’ve done against most of the teams they’ve played so far. Gifts aside (he scored their third), Joao Klauss deserves a lot of the credit for the potency of St. Louis’ attack; he has real force-of-nature vibes. That said, I’ve read a certain fragility into RSL’s results so far – the loss at Austin, in particular – and, as I said then, RSL only win when they win the intensity battle. That’s a hell of a foot-race to get into against St. Louis, yeah?
What It All Means
I have no damn idea if or when St. Louis will sink to the level everyone’s expecting and, frankly, I don’t care. It’s fun! RSL, meanwhile, looks like a team who could keep the Timbers company through their own slow start...maybe even give them something on which to stand, should they ever behoove themselves to get out of the basement.

Austin FC 1-1 Colorado Rapids[Glance]
Against the backdrop of Austin’s shaky season so far, the box score and highlights should make their fans uncomfortable at the least. Nothing I’ve seen so far spoke to the fact that both showed the Rapids – again, that’s the Rapids – in the driver’s seat throughout. Colorado forced an MVP performance out of Brad Stuver –not good, because what teams strives to make their ‘keeper the MVP? – and, while seven of Colorado’s shots on goal didn’t make him work so hard, the Rapids got enough cracks to find a shot Stuver couldn’t stop. Going the other way, I’d rather have Stuver than William Yarbrough, who has bobbled too many things...
What It All Means
A brave performance by the Rapids after losing Jack Price for the season, but also more hints that Austin may not be what they were in 2022. Also known as a potential opening for several of the eight teams below them.

Columbus Crews SC 6-1 Atlanta United FC[Glance]
I put very little stock in this result going in and even less in this result going out; blowouts are always anomalies, if nothing else. Regardless, Columbus banked three points at home, if at a discount, and the magnitude of the result should have their second shift feeling downright cocky. For instance, the goal and assist registered by Jacen Russell-Rowe – 2022’s MLS2 MVP, from what I gather – shared a cool professionalism that says good things about Columbus’ future, and it’s pretty damn hard to beat Christian Ramirez as a reserve forward – particularly when he’s getting that kind of service.

Typing as a Timbers fan, I appreciate the karmic retribution (1-6 motherfuckers!!), while also understanding how much Atlanta was missing. Going the other way, if I asked anyone for a prediction going into this game, with a qualifier that Columbus wouldn’t have Lucas Zelarayan, Cucho Hernandez, and Eloy Room available, I doubt anyone would come back with a 6-1 win for the Crew. That’s a lot of what makes this result something you toss out of the sample. That’s even with Columbus having things to feel good about beyond the final score.
What It All Means
Don’t know. That’s why this result’s way down here...

Inter Miami FC 2-3 Chicago Fire FC[Glance]
Chicago keeps inching toward interesting – especially with Brian Gutierrez pulling the strings instead of Xherdan Shaqiri; the kid bagged two assists by the way – and this win puts another stitch into that narrative. Chris Mueller has two solid weak-side goals in as many weeks, but one really does have to question Miami’s collective commitment when you see Carlos Teran bully in what would have stood as Chicago’s insurance goal but for Miami’s fairly impressive comeback. And that’s the tricky thing with this result.

One a top-line level, few games rate higher on the “Must-Win Scale” than hosting Chicago: in the context of a random loss, you don’t really think much of it; in the context of a third straight loss for Miami, and their first at home...well, you start to think about it, don’t you?
What It All Means
I don’t think much, at least not outside the immediate result. It’s early, but I can’t see either of these teams going far.

All right, that’s it for this week. I’ll be back for Week 6, ideally with a post that’s....call it a page and a half shorter. Till then...

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