Wednesday, April 5, 2023

A Casual Fan's Preview, MLS Week 7: At a Point in the Season, Tales of Addition and Subtraction

The red stuff is all the birthdays I forget...
With this weekend’s set of matches, Major League Soccer officially reached the 7/34th point in the season. Big shit, in other words...

After dragging the last preview post over the line (and myself across a board filled with tacks), I promised myself I’d keep these shorter (broke me promise, sadly). The fact I’m half-assing the FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union preview should help - oh, and I’ll defend that choice – but I’m also going to take something like a free association approach to the blurbs. What the hell, right? Spin the bottle, find out who are what you kiss, yolo.

Anyhoo, I can’t keep this short if I don’t get going. In making the calls below, I stared at my now-wife, The Form Guide, the current standings, and plumb the befogged shallows of my memory. The short-term memory loss thing? Totally true. Anyway, let’s dig in....

FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union
CIN: 4-0-2, 14 pts., 8 gf, 4 ga (+4); Last 6: WTWTWW (pretty tough schedule, honestly)
PHI: 2-3-1, 7 pts., 8 gf, 8 ga (0); Last 6: WLWLLT (about 50/50; should be better)

I didn’t even sit through the highlights of Philly’s (frankly) shock home draw against SKC. I doubt it would have been informative, it’d be like watching the Union playing drunk, they’re not themselves, they’ve refused to take out the trash in weeks, it’s wearing thin, etc.

I see Cincy all the time, of course, but I don’t have any great analytic thoughts beyond, “yeah, they look good.” The one big picture thing I’d say about them is that I doubt they come out as flat this week as they did last (my only half-hearted complaint about the win over Miami, fwiw).

A couple people hepped me to the fact that Philly fielded their starters against Mexico’s Atlas in the CCL on Tuesday – and they kept most of them on the whole game (anyone else wonder if they still think it was worth it?). That probably bodes as well as anything for Cincy’s chances, as they’re unlikely to get the Union at their best. That makes these big points in mind; savvy teams get ‘em while they can, people. I don’t know Obinna Nwobodo’s status – he’ll play if he does, right? – but I’m hoping for a calmer game from Marco Angulo should he start. More than that, I’d like to see Cincy’s Big Three get going. If they don’t, this one’s got low-scoring draw or 1-0 result in either direction – if with a lean toward Cincinnati – written all over it. I see those goals-for numbers. Anyhoo, I see Philly like a pro wrestler who’s been hit with everything including a steel chair: you know they’re going to get up and rally; it’s just a question when...unless their struggles continue into the summer. Next!


Would that Portland's fragility was so beautiful.
Vancouver Whitecaps v Portland Tmibers
VAN: 1-2-3, 6 pts., 10 gf, 7 ga (+3); Last 6: LLTTTW (pretty soft; e.g., RSL, LA, and Montreal)
POR: 1-3-2, 5 pts., 7 gf, 11 ga (-4); Last 6: WLLLTT (goal differential should be better, maybe one more point)

I just sat through chunks of Vancouver’s demolition of Montreal last weekend. Again, I doubt I learned much from it – Montreal sucks pretty hard, for one – but I just wanted to get some names in my head. If you read content from The Mothership, you’ve probably heard the name Simon Becher (maybe even pronounced correctly) and, yes, he did look great. Good movement, good finishes, paired with Brian White like a hearty chardonnay with chicken breast in a mushroom/spring vegetable sauce...aka, the kind of thing that has contributed to Portland’s present defensive record in 2023; going the other way, how much of that follows from the Tmibers getting on the wrong side of a freak blowout while Vancouver perhaps got on the right side of one? Again, between the opposition and said opposition’s form, they’ve had a pretty soft start to the season. Feel fair to call them an unknown right now.

One big “ICYMI” to note: Rudy Camacho saw straight red in the 23rd minute for a “last-man” foul (but his petition to deny the PK was successful), so Montreal played a man down more than 2/3 of the game. Going the other way, I read this morning that the ‘Caps’ underlying numbers point to higher placement in the standings. When I gave them a longer look earlier this season (@ SJ), they looked smart and solid, just not so much as the ‘Quakes. Put it all together...well, let’s just say Portland will have a much, much better chance if they look more like their Week 6 selves as opposed to, say, their Weeks 2-5.

Fortunately, that doesn’t apply to the defensive side because, for all the fragility the Tmibers' defense has shown so far, I can’t see them making letting players run buck-wild/nekkid the way Montreal did on Vancouver’s first two goals. I’m talking full-on, "who are you marking?" stuff, and small wonder Becher looks like Bradley Wright-Phillips. Just two minutes passed before Montreal coughed up a third goal - loudly, I might add, seeing that two Vancouver players beat their entire left side to a rebound - and it just kind of didn’t matter after that. That’s a game a team writes off, if only for self-preservation, and, if Portland's defense does the same, what can you do but hug the disaster until you love it, or at least until you can crack jokes about it.

Based on the sum of that experience, one thing I will say is that the ‘Caps move the ball pretty well. Sure, Montreal gawked at it like a bunch of rubes seeing it for the first time (“look pa”), but San Jose beat them by doing the same thing a little better. Fortunately, that’s also the deep-down of why I felt so much better about the Tmibers last week: so long as they play at that level, they’ll be competitive. If they can get actual good games out of...fuck, just two guys in the attack, I give them a fair chance of scoring, even winning. I’d call getting defensive assignments and execution right – with the question of how to manage two good-sized and fairly mobile forwards at or near the top of the list – the key to getting anything out of it.

For whatever reason, I like Portland’s chances of scoring a goal more than I like their chances of keeping a clean sheet. My money’s on a repeat of last week’s result. Take that for whatever it’s worth.

That’s it for this site’s main stages, so let’s move on to the undercards. Because I love categories a little too well, that’s how I’ve organized MLS Week 7’s matchups below. I believe the categories explain themselves, so let’s dig in. For what it’s worth, I think adding the top-line numbers and commentary adds some actual value. Don’t know about you, but I love seeing some context fill in. Like watching my kids grow up. Seriously....

The Big 3
Seattle Sounders v St. Louis CITY FC
SEA: 4-4-1, 13 pts., 12 gf, 3 ga (+9), Last 6: WWLTWW (pounding the weaklings, even with peers)
STL: 5-1-0, 15 pts., 15 gf, 5 ga (+10), Last 6: WWWWWL (doing great, if under mellow circumstances)

Easily the marquee matchup of MLS Week 7. Two teams playing well – and how maddeningly fucking on-brand is that tiny goals-against number for Seattle? – and also the first “real” test for St. Louis. (I used both scare quotes and italics to subtly hint that Minnesota has something to say about that.) One fun detail: St. Louis is perfect on the road so far....

DC United v Columbus Crew SC
DC: 1-3-2, 5 pts., 7gf, 10 ga (-3); Last 6: WLTLLT (pretty tough, still scrappin’)
CLB: 3-2-1, 10 pts., 15 gf, 8 ga (+7); Last 6: LWTLWW (great home team, strugglin’ road team)

Good contrast on this one, actually: the noble failures (DC) desperate to kick-start a season gone wrong against a Columbus team that would gain three inches (in height, people; body height! Good gods, where is your mind? Anyway, all I meant was stand a little taller) if they can win this game.

This level party, btw. Not a rager.
New York City FC v Atlanta United FC
NYC: 2-2-2, 8 pts., 6gf, 7 ga (-1); Last 6: LTWWLT (6 pretty easy points at home, 2 in four games on the road)
ATL: 4-1-1, 13 pts., 13 gf, 9 ga (+4); Last 6: WTWWLW (more home than away, more easy than hard)

Call its presence here evidence of a less than compelling MLS Week. Again, this one’s mostly about NYC, who got a little hype after two wins in a row. If they don’t keep that perfect home record going, I think they become part of a fattened middle in the East. Atlanta, meanwhile, has nothing to lose, but a win would lift whispers of a comeback to “party conversational” (as in, loud enough to hear at a party).

[Honorary Mention: FC Cincinnati v Philadelphia Union]

Points of Interest
Los Angeles FC v Austin FC
LAFC: 3-0-2, 11 pts., 9 gf, 3 ga (+6), Last 65: WWTWT (all wins at home; sturdy oppo + Portland)
ATX: 2-2-1, 7 pts., 6 gf, 7 ga (-1), Last 5: LWWLT (dropping points at home, two soft wins)

I suspect everyone down to your neighbor’s dog expects LAFC win this one – which brings the thought to where it properly belongs, i.e., with Austin. At this point, I’m looking at all the match-ups/results through the lens of the teams most likely to clear a space for the Timbers to take up, if/when Portland gets their shit together. With the way Austin has underwhelmed...

Inter Miami CF v FC Dallas
MIA: 2-4-0, 6 pts., 6gf, 7 ga (-1); Last 6: WWLLLL (one of the tragedies of 2023 so far)
FCD: 2-2-2, 8 pts., 8 gf, 7 ga (+1); Last 6: LWTWLT (just two road games, just two points therefrom)

Sure, it'd be nice to see Miami find their feet after losing its heart (Gregore), but this one’s more about Dallas for me. They have a fair chance to win this one; whether or not they do feels like a good indicator of less than good things for them.

An Exercise in Building Their Legend
Nashville SC v Toronto FC
NSH: 3-2-1, 10 pts., 6 gf, 3 ga (+3); Last 6: WTWLLW (pretty tough, getting points they should)
TFC: 1-1-4, 7 pts., 8 gf, 7 ga (+1); Last 6: LTTWTT (semi-soft; grinded out a couple road draws)

Nashville should win this. If they don’t, I think it’ll read as a glitch. Or an ongoing failure of the attack (which did get a bit lucky in MLS Week 6).

New England Revolution v Club de Foot Montreal
NE: 4-1-1, 13 pts., 8 gf, 6 ga (+2); Last 6: WWLWWT (unbeaten at home; solid 2023 so far)
MTL: 1-4-0, 3 pts., 3 gf, 12 ga (-9); Last 5: LLLWL (lots of road games; fairly tough, honestly)

Another tough road game for Montreal, another game the Revs should win. Montreal should fall somewhere in the broad band between motivated and anxious.

Chicago Fire FC v Minnesota United FC
CHI: 1-1-3, 6 pts., 7 gf, 7 ga (0); Last 5: TLTWT (tough so far, slip at home v DC noteworthy)
MIN: 3-0-2, 11 pts., 6 gf, 3 ga (+3); Last 5: WTWTW (3 tough road games, three wins)

Chicago has been competitive, but Minnesota are 2023’s kings of the grind. Winning this adds to their legend.

For Local Consumption Only
Houston Dynamo FC v Los Angeles Galaxy
HOU: 2-3-0, 6 pts. 5 gf, 7 ga (-2); Last 5: LLWWL (perfect at home and v better teams)
LAG: 0-2-3, 3 pts., 3 gf, 6 ga (-3); Last 5: LTTTL (decent road team; can’t score for shit, obviously)

A win would do Houston a world of good, maybe even kick them into the next tier up in the conversation....wherever that goes next week. Same for LA...y’know, one team staying over the line while the other win slips under wouldn’t change a damn thing for Portland in the grand scheme.

Red Bull New York v San Jose Earthquakes
RBNY: 1-2-3, 6 pts.; 4 gf, 5 ga (-1); Last 6: LTTWTL (a pretty tough run, fwiw, four road games)
SJ: 3-2-1, 10 pts., 6 gf, 7 ga (-1); Last 6: LWWLTW (easy(ish) pickins at home so far, 9 points)

If the Red Bulls can’t get going – or, fuck it, even score (jesus, help 'em, just four goals?) – in this one...you just have to wonder.

Sporting Kansas City v Colorado Rapids
SKC: 0-3-3, 3 (sad) pts., 2 gf, 7 ga (-5); Last 6: LTTLLT (four road games?)
COL: 0-3-3, 3 (sad) pts., 2 gf, 8 ga (-6); Last 6: LTLLTT (some actually impressive draws)

Can’t they both win somehow? It’s like watching two guys with the wobbles trying to finish a marathon, only after they’ve gone just a mile. Fun fact: SKC drew Colorado at home, so maybe they finally get that Van Halen-shaped “W”.

Real Salt Lake v Charlotte FC
RSL: 1-4-0, 3 pts., 3 gf, 13 ga (-10); Last 5: WLLLL (two 0-4 losses; they are tissue soft)
CLT: 1-3-2, 5 pts., 6 gf, 11 ga (-5); Last 6: LLLWTT (fairly tough, but look how little they’ve made of it)

As close to a clash between JV teams as MLS gets this week. No matter who wins, the commentary will go something like, “yeah, but they beat [RSL/Charlotte].”

[Vancouver Whitecaps v Portland Timbers goes here]

And that doesn’t make me remotely happy, but it is what it is.

And that’s this week’s framing. Back at you on either Saturday or Sunday (negotiations/giving due consideration to my wife are on going).

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