Monday, June 26, 2023

MLS Week 21 (Probably?) Review: All the Thoughts I Had Before Falling Asleep on Monday

Okay, forward passes enable communism!
In order to get these league-wide wraps posted timely, I’m sticking with reviews and posting on Mondays (or Tuesdays). That simplifies the format (woot-woot), which goes something like this: I list all the games I look at – some of them longer than others (and [see the brackets] after every final score) – pass on the better notes that came to me as I watched what I watched in varying degrees of consciousness, embed a link to the MLSSoccer.com game summary in the final score (but otherwise don't link to shit), then move on to the next one. Now, please make sure your seat belts are fastened and extinguish any smoking materials, because this flight’s about to take off...starting with some loose thoughts that interrupted my fugue state...

At this point in the season, a growing number of games come down to which team of the two playing have more things nailed down. About 90% of that thought comes from watching Real Salt Lake and Atlanta United FC for long stretches – and, to flag which is which, RSL always looked like they had a chance to come back; Atlanta, meanwhile, played like a team that had been conditioned out of doing anything decisive by shock collars. Start watching for this. Also, don’t expect it to be a permanent condition. Only the good teams do that.

Something else that struck me this weekend: you don’t always see a goal coming – and not just in the “against the run of play” sense of the word. I think fans still get skittish about admitting this, but this game really can deliver a whole lot of running about and little more by the scores of minutes.

Finally, I imagine every week sees a Goal of the Week that wasn’t, but, Hector Herrera’s divine-but-for attempt against Austin? Better than 60% of the goals you saw and more inspired than all of them. R.I.P.

Well, that’s it for the chit-chat. Let’s talk about the games! Or at least the ones I care about.

DC United 3-0 FC Cincinnati[Minutes 1-20, 35-45, 70-90]
Why This One?Mostly looking for signs of life from DC United. Cincy's still better than fine (till further).
The attacking numbers didn’t spread as widely as the final score, but DC won the majority of the 50/50s and Cincinnati answered the question, do you want Alvas Powell as the last defender? (No, you do not...but it also seems this has been tried many times since I checked out on Cincy, so what do I know?). The game ended for Cincy’s make-shift defense long before Ian Murphy’s 79th minute sending of; they were (clearly) missing Matt Miazga and Yerson Mosquera. This pushes another lesson to the fore: what works against a straight-up fucking terrible Toronto FC won’t necessarily play in DC. The hosts defensive scheme – i.e., a vertically compact defense with a high defensive line behind it (and does anyone else think Tyler Miller gets a kick out of the sweeper-‘keeper thing?) – stifled Cincy’s attack before it could get started. So, once DC went ahead on a goal where Cincinnati’s defense failed to cover the second and third ball, that left the visitors playing clean-up. Which, just to note it, they’ve done just twice all season and is that the secret to beating them? (Then again, isn’t “just score first” the same starting one’s financial planning at a craps table?) Andy Najar played a strong one, despite having to hold down the Barreal/Acosta side and I gotta say, Christian Benteke was a helluva signing – as much for the fact he remains forever available and ready as his talent and presence. DC still remains in 8th and nowhere near consistent enough to challenge, but that doesn’t mean they can’t beat your local team.

Real Salt Lake 2-2 Minnesota United FC[Minutes 20-40, 75-90+]
Why This One? Portland play Minnesota next.
Again, I hate fucking VAR; burned five minutes to arrive at the wrong result. Stupid shit. Anyhoo, the game played out fairly simply with Minnesota defending a lot (seriously, they spent 98+ daring RSL to break them down) and taking the lead on two pillow-soft goals – i.e., RSL let Emanuel Reynoso knock and knock on the door for the first and left him wide open at the back post for the second. The hosts responded by firing a couple dozen shots from range into the thick of Minnesota’s defense; swear to gods, Jefferson Savarino took half of them. Another popular idea: lofting diagonals into the heart of the area – a tactic that looked both deliberate and calculated, which led to their first goal by Danny Musovski. They’re a weird animal, RSL, loaded up with players who can disrupt a defense by beating the first man and running wild – e.g., along with Savarino, that’s Andres Gomez, Diego Luna, and even Anderson Julio – but there’s the question of what brings them together. The short answer is Pablo Ruiz (who’s quite good at it), but it makes one wonder if they could do with a little more glue. The result didn’t shake my faith in my overall theory of both teams, but RSL won’t level up until they figure out better ways to direct all that urgency. Minnesota will continue Minnesota-ing, no doubt.

Gentlemen of leisure. Dammit.
Red Bull New York 4-0 Atlanta United FC[Minutes 25-45, 75-90+]
Why This One?Trying to figure out how Atlanta screwed the pooch. Four times.
First, I want Arlo White to read erotic literature to me. Second, the Red Bulls have quietly put together a decent run during all that time I ignored them; 4-2-2 in their last eight games ain’t bad – and, hey! It matches the way they lined up Saturday. Very much related, the idea that Atlanta has some juice this season never really left me after their strong start, and yet they’ve won just twice in their last eleven games - i.e., who's super behind? This guy! At any rate, this game gave a long glimpse into why: across the board, Atlanta players labored to make decisions and failed to see them through with enough urgency and crispness once they did; Calen Carr wasn’t wrong when he said the game plan boiled down to kick it Almada and see what he could do. All it took from there was a dogshit game by Andrew Gutman (so, so many errors). Also, fun fact: Atlanta does not win games when down 0-2 on the road (0-36-10 record from that lie). Missing Miles Robinson almost certainly hurt, but the Red Bulls eat soft, half-interested play for second breakfast, thank you for coming, shorty. All it took for New Jersey’s finest to win this was the one thing they always have: good energy. None of their four goals looked elegant, two came off deflections, etc.

Los Angeles FC 2-3 Vancouver Whitecaps[Minutes 1-25, 35-45, 60-80]
Why This One?Because I want to know how seriously I should take Vancouver.
One of those games where the ‘Caps let ‘em surface, only to shove their heads back under. Who is Danny Crisostomo...and did his friends call him Danny Christmas Donuts? As for the game...

It’s the dropped points at home causing the gas bubbles around LAFC, right? Or is it the fact the ‘Caps notched their first road win on their turf? On an immediate level, Vancouver absolutely blitzed LAFC once the whistle sounded, creating great chances to the host’s few and holding a nine shots to two advantage by the 15th; they went up 2-0 on a disturbingly (for LAFC) simple counter that saw Jose Cifuentes carry his share of a 3-v-3 at a ball-watching trot. LAFC answered with a live demonstration of how well they can move the ball to pull one goal back...but your local team can’t just give up three goals – with the emphasis on “give up” – and still expect to walk off with three points. One thing that stood out: I’ve seen Cifuentes steamroll a game; I’ve also seen him do...what he did on Saturday. The same goes for Ilie Sanchez – hell, the man has a commercial on the TV! – who played badly enough in sufficiently critical places to where you can think about getting out the Sharpie to write it off. We’ll see. LAFC have some winnable games lined up – e.g., @ FCD, @ LAG, v SJ, v STL – or at least the kinds of games a truly competitive team mines for points. Vancouver, meanwhile, just picked up three points virtually no one thought they would. And they’ve picked up three good wins over their past six games.

Austin FC 3-0 Houston Dynamo FC[Highlights & Box Score]
Houston had most of their key pieces that I recognize (but...Daniel Steres at left back?), the numbers look even enough, and so on...so, how did the wheels fly off to the side of Texas highway? Houston remains catastrophic on the road, for one (1-7-2), and that little upswing from Austin that has me worried...I mean, they’re getting real steady at home...to the tape! And...yeah, Steres played like a man used to having a fullback behind him on Austin’s first and third goals, plus you had Sebastian Driussi with silky assists on Austin's first and second goal; does it really matter whether Houston woke up two goals or three too late? That said, no one will care about this loss if Houston makes the post-season, so they should write off the L to goldfish-brain oblivion and move on, plus Austin has the tougher stretch to the Leagues Cup break. If a revival's there for Austin, I trust we'll see it.

San Jose Earthquakes 1-2 St. Louis CITY FC[Highlights & Box Score]
No excuses for ‘Quakes, who started the line-up I generally rate – as such, this one’s about the first dent in their home form. And yet...look, you can’t take the start away, but, holy shit, I have never seen a team benefit from dumb mistakes and defensive boners the way St. Louis has in their Year 1 – up to and including the dumb/generous penalty kick that gave them the winner. Related, what else: Samuel Adeniran looks like a good, humble story. Long may the young man prosper. Looking ahead, you should neither be stunned by nor read a lot into things if St. Louis wins, oh, four of their next five games. And San Jose’s next three...suffice to say it should be fun, and that they’ll want six-plus out of it. That's what I'm watching for anyway...

Columbus Crew SC 2-0 Nashville SC[Highlights & Box Score]
Just to celebrate it, Lucas Zelarayan played a crazy fucking pass to Cucho Hernandez around the 12th, the kind of pass that makes you believe in a future. They left the insurance goal too late for the policy to matter, but Columbus could have one by this anywhere between 1-0 and 3-0 and I didn't see anything to make me think it would have played out any differently. As such, the bigger story comes on the defensive side where Columbus gave a generally competent Nashville team something between jack and squat. That’s a big deal, what with the firepower Columbus can bring to turn one point into three. That’s two straight road losses for Nashville, by the way, and 5-2-1 over their last eight games for Columbus – and the manner and timing of this win makes that look more and more like a run.

That's Bob left, Michael right....hold on....
New England Revolution 2-1 Toronto FC[Highlights & Box Score]
First and foremost, no team should gloat about beating Toronto and claiming a team that beat them has “figured out” anything amounts should be read as a wicked combination of punditry malpractice and heresy. Even Toronto figured out they suck, hence Bob Bradley hitting the unemployment line (still a fan, you beautiful Skeletor-looking mook). And yet, is that three straight Ws for the Revs? New England continues to rock the diamond midfield, but, to this blinkered eye, that could be Toronto’s most coherent starting XI, but that’s enough from me: let’s talk about how things went. To begin, I don’t know how a team can put 10 shots on goal, but score in a way that relies on a defender (Ryan Spaulding, step right up!) switching off. That's Toronto's goal entered into the record, but Carles Gil took over from there – and to a point where even Lorenzo Insigne gave him a “damn, son” pat on the head in game-recognizes-game respect – but the main thing that came through: just incredibly soft defending by Toronto, whether by Cristian Gutierrez approaching Gil as if a horcrux protected him, or Aime Mabika giving Giacomo Vrioni enough space to host a full fucking walts in the box. So, yeah, Toronto sucks, as they well know.

Philadelphia Union 4-1 Inter Miami CF[Highlights & Box Score]
Yes, I should have watched this one, especially with Philly looking like a decent bet to get ahead of Nashville once they, like them, play their 20th game. In the end, though, I thought what was this but Philly kicking the road-kill half the league expect Lionel Messi to clean up? To the tape...well, the numbers say the Union peeled the paint off Miami by countering them to death, which does make you wonder Finally, know what’d be really fun: the entire world watching you as some doomed and horrific opening act for a main event that literally everyone believes will be far, far better...

...and to anyone who follows me on twitter (@JeffBull5, hmu as/before the Titanic sinks, maybe exchange deets), yes, this was the inspiration for the MLS Jubilee Year. Anyhoo...

To flag one stat I had to confirm, Philly have a pretty solid collection of multi-goal wins this season; this pile-on merely adds to it. Neither team generated much of an attack, and yet the Union straight-up pantsed Miami on two of those goals? To hit one of my favorite refrains, I don’t understand xG (or how this or that person counts it), but it looks like Miami pushed Toronto for the MLS Week 21 Glass Jaw award...and, oooooh, fun fact: Miami hasn’t tied once in 18 games this year. Generally, this felt like a reliable indicator for both teams in the here and now.

Sporting Kansas City 0-1 Chicago Fire FC[Highlights & Box]
That fact that Chicago’s a mere three points behind Club de Foot Montreal and DC United, just as many below the playoff line, and with a game in hand on DC, gives a you a real clear idea about how far a two-game winning streak goes in this league. From the City of Portland, “you’re welcome!” If nothing else, this props up my unstudied theory that MLS’s Eastern Conference > its Western Conference this season (look into this, crack team, plz.). At the same time, how quelle nowhere are these two teams, so I’ve already given this more observation than it deserves....my only notes are: 1) this is SKC’s best XI as I know it, playing at home, and, 2) the broadcast speculated that Frank Klopas would be “the happier manager” at the beginning of the 2nd half; 3) I like that Brian Gutierrez kid; 4) was it all shots from range? (box score sez no); 5) see the note up top about games where nothing seems to happen until it does.

I ignored the rest. Till the next one.

2 comments:

  1. Since you have the tenacity to sit through (parts of) many other MLS matches other than your two fav teams, is it possible to feel any league-wide perspective?

    Your analyses do highlight certain teams that appear like they have repeatable ideas for league success. My Timbers' plan is to occasionally plug in a new player in a flawed lineup and hope that's the magic bullet. But league-wide, everything seems so random! New teams surge to instant success, then go flat their second year. Throwing money at player acquisition is a path that works maybe half the time. Coaches are changed out after a few months or stay for years of mixed results.

    I know- this is the charm of sports. No team-building action is guaranteed to always work. But my brain can't help but do endless pattern-recognition quests. Argh!

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  2. A "clean" league-wide perspective? Nah. Most of what I do in these posts is flag clearer, long-term trends - e.g., that San Jose or Cincinnati is really good at home (which gives them good odds to go far in the post-season, to the extent they hold home field), or to measure how good a given team's winning streak really is, etc. I hope to arrive at a better, faster formula that feels like it's not vague to the point of being generic and the main thing I'm trying to avoid is getting sucked into "they have it all figured out" narratives based on a team beating, say, Colorado and Toronto back-to-back. Which seems to happen all the time.

    Big picture, it's just an accumulation of details that tend to slip this way or that for 3/4 a damn year....

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