Thursday, August 17, 2023

MLS Eastern Conference Reset

Due to the long, long tail below, I’m going for an all-time short preamble for this post, just as I did for the Western Conference Reset. The goal here is simple: remind readers where all the teams in Major League Soccer’s Eastern Conference left off going into the Leagues Cup break (which I experienced less than I should have; pour one out), pass on short note as to how each Eastern Conference team did in that tournament, flag any (potentially? arguably?) notable comings into and goings out of the roster, and look ahead to the next eight games or so for all involved.

Here are the sources I consulted: the current conference standings, the bless’d and holy Form Guide, the group stage standings and knockout round brackets from the Leagues Cup, as well as the list of results, and the “all transactions” page on MLSSoccer.com.

I believe the rest speaks for itself, so, with no further ado...allez cuisine!

FC Cincinnati
15-2-6, 51 pts., 23 games played; 39 gf, 25 ga (+14); home 11-0-1, away 4-2-5
Last 10 League Results: WWWTWLTTWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
Cincy played six of their past 10 games on the road and, while they took a bit of a hit when they lost some players during the international break, they picked up where their 2023 season left off with a road win over Red Bull and a home win over the occasionally (now newly) impressive Nashville SC.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
Wouldn’t ya know, Nashville knocked off Cincy in a penalty kick shoot-out where everyone more or less showed up. That’s a warning shot in my book (as argued here), but Cincy’s 100%-safe for the post-season, so it’s a matter of landing on the infallible winning formula – and that’s more about MLS Cup than the Supporters’ Shield. Barring a face-plant, Cincinnati should get the Shield, but more teams have figured out more things about them since the start of 2023, so...
Fresh Moves
None during the break. Aaron Boupendza arrived prior (though I am still sorting out my feelings...).
Expectations for the Stretch Run
A bit beefy on immediate re-entry – e.g., four of the next six on the road (@ CLB, @ ATL, @ PHI, @ MTL), but they’ve got some padding for the two home games (v NYC (pulling for a thrilla!), v ORL). It’s pretty standard stuff from there, but, with the padding Cincy has fluffed behind their butts (8 points over the Revs; hello down there!), they’d have to face-plant through the floor to lose the Shield...and I hope I didn’t jinx it.

New England Revolution
12-4-7, 43 pts., 23 games played; 42 gf, 28 ga (+14); home 9-0-3, away 3-3-4
Last 10 League Results: TTTWWWTLWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
A combination of stealing points on the road and riding an actually perfect home record over their past five – and with promising margins on the scoreboard. Oh, and the defensive record beats my expectations.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
The Revs fell to a Red Bull New York special (aka, frustration), but went on to blow out San Luis 5-1 and gut out a penalty kick shout out against Mexico’s Atlas in the first round of the Leagues Cup knockouts. Good but not good enough, basically.
Fresh Moves
Yeah, nothing. The Mark-Anthony Kaye/Latif Blessing swap happened pre-Leagues Cup...and pray for Latif...oh, and is Bruce Arena back in charge or still in the Sin-Bin? [UPDATE: Per an August 17 tweet quoting Omar Gonzalez...still in the sin-bin.]
Expectations for the Stretch Run
If nothing else, I believe the Revs home form will float them to the playoffs and, barring the face-plant scenario described above, probably keep them in the top half of the playoff bracket. They have some sticky wickets ahead – starting, but not ending with @ MTL, @ MIN, @ CHI – and playing three Western Conference teams leaves them fighting for points that’ll hurt more to lose than they’ll help picking up. Ah, the pleasures of bleeding your rivals...

Philadelphia Union
12-7-4, 40 pts., 23 games played; 39 gf, 26 ga (+13); home 8-1-2, away 4-6-2
Last 10 League Results: WWWLTWLLWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
Philly lost three on the road – some to teams you wouldn’t expect (e.g., Atlanta United FC and the Los Angeles Galaxy; at least the San Jose Earthquakes are pretty damn good at home) – but the rest is respectable, if with some home-cooking bias , i.e., they seem to do better in Chester, PA, so pretty damn MLS-traditional.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
The Union chewed through Mexican opposition (3-1 over Tijuana, then 5-1 v Queretaro) and then proceeded to grind through to the semifinals. If they can get past Miami, it’s worth noting – even if they haven’t blown out one team since the group stage. [UPDATE, prior to publication: Philly got their teeth kicked in by Inter Miami CF (see way, way below) in the semifinals.]
Fresh Moves
Wow, I don’t even know who Andres Perea is, but they shipped him to New York City FC, so I assume that’s mostly benign. But they also signed their first-ever (what?!) U-22 player in Olwethu Makhanya, along with a second, more experienced forward in the Israeli forward Tai Baribo...of whom I’ve already shared all I know.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
Once the CCL hangover wore off, the Union went back to Philly being Philly, if more or less. It’s still pretty damn blue collar (which, here means winning, or not, by close margins and against anyone who isn’t Miami) and, looking at the teams ahead, I’d say they’re all game-planning just as hard about Philly as Philly is game-planning about them. All in all, I expect them to be a pain in the ass in every game, and they’ll probably pick up the balance of the points they play for between now and the end of the season, i.e., definitely in the playoffs, so it’s mostly a question of where they place.

Nashville SC
11-8-5, 38 pts., 24 games played; 31 gf, 22 ga (+9); home 8-2-2, away 3-6-3
Last 10 League Results: WWTWLLWLLL
Strength/Location of Schedule
Four of their last five losses hit them on the road, and most involved solid to strong teams – e.g., Club du Foot Montreal, Columbus Crew SC, Cincy – but here’s where the sub-plot hoves into the scene...
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
They came out second-best to Toluca in the group, but they marched grimly through the knockout rounds before crowning their march to the semifinals with an absolute shelling of Minnesota – and they knocked off Cincy and Club America before that. Very strong tournament. [UPDATE, prior to publication: It just got very stronger, given that Nashville knocked off Mexico’s Monterrey and I’m pretty sure everyone wants them to beat Miami, if not kick the shit out of them.]
Fresh Moves
That Sam Surridge guy, acquired from Nottingham Forest, looks good enough...like Teemu Pukki for Minnesota, he looks to have a clean, striker’s shot. Speaking of the Loons, they kicked Jan Gregus back to Minnesota.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
I mean...what do you trust? Nashville absolutely cratered their home record in the run-up to the Leagues Cup and, lookie(sp?) here, they’ve got four of their next five on the road (@ ATL, @ MIA, @ SKC, @ SJ). So long as the same team that spoiled the cream of MLS (Cincy) and knocked off two of Mexico’s best teams back-to-back shows up, it should be more of the same...but, fun question, how much of Nashville’s success against those Mexican teams followed from unfamiliarity? Fun question!

When's the last time you called?
Orlando City SC
10-6-7, 37 pts., 23 games played; 34 gf, 28 ga (+6); home 5-3-4, away 5-3-3
Last 10 League Results: TWWLTTWWLW
Strength/Location of Schedule
Won’t lie: they’ve beat some crap teams in Orlando – e.g., Colorado, Chicago Fire FC, Toronto FC – but they did all that by a fair margin (i.e., multi-goal games) and that just goes to show how much they’ve turned around their home form.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
After beating Santos Laguna and outlasting Houston Dynamo FC in penalties (for the record, they played Houston, then Santos Laguna), Orlando became the first real victim of a...call it freshly-inspired Inter Miami CF team. All in all, it felt like more of the same from Orlando and in a good way.
Fresh Moves
They recalled Junior Urso (a move I like), the end.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
To lay my cards on the table, I think Orlando is just one of those teams: good enough, not great, but reliably in the mix and likely to stay there. To put that another way, I can see them winning every one of their next five games - @ CHI, v STL, @ CLT, @ CIN, v CLB – knowing all the while that they’ll get just enough points to stay more or less where they are, i.e., doing fine, thanks for asking, mom.

Columbus Crew SC
10-7-6, 36 pts., 23 games played; 45 gf, 33 ga (+12); home 8-1-3, away 2-6-3
Last 10 League Results: LWWWTWWTTL
Strength/Location of Schedule
A little loose on goals allowed: Columbus has allowed two goals or more in six of their past ten games (seven of their past 11 if you count the 2-3 road loss at Cincinnati) – and the road form should concern them – but still taking care of business, by and large (your neighborhood men’s clothing store).
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
Damned solid/unbeaten – with the wins coming over St. Louis CITY FC and (wow!) a 4-1 shelling of Mexico’s Club America – only to have Minnesota keep up with them in a 3-3 draw (in Columbus) and beat them on penalties. Promise cut down prior before it could bosom...er, blossom.
Fresh Moves
Columbus did what looked liked unexpected house-cleaning going into the Leagues Cup break – e.g., terminating goalkeeper Eloy Room’s contract, sending defender Milos Degenek back to(?) Sebria, and...I don’t like this, selling Lucas Zelarayan to the Saudi leagues. I’d also say they made their intent to play for silverware in the here/now clear by trading for Julian Gressel (Vancouver) and Rudy Camacho (Montreal) and returning Diego Rossi to MLS.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
Between their form and the fact they have an equal number of home games and road games, Columbus looks like another team likely to hold their place in the table...the question for me is how much they rise above it. Because I’m a bit worried they can.

Atlanta United FC
9-7-8, 35 pts., 24 games played; 42 gf, 39 ga (+3); home 7-2-3, away 2-5-5
Last 10 League Results: TTTWTLWWLL
Strength/Location of Schedule
A mix of truly good results – e.g., home wins over Philly and DC United, plus a rare win over Montreal in their place – and a fair amount of failing to launch. In fairness, they played and largely either lost to or punched even with some of the East’s high-achievers...but what team can thrive without shivving the high achievers?
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
Not so good. After getting steamrolled by MLS’s marketing orgasm (i.e., Lionel Messi), Atlanta lost on penalties to Cruz Azul. So, no knockout round for them...which feels like failure.
Fresh Moves
Atlanta shed a couple contracts – Marcelino Moreno is probably the most noteworthy here (and yet, is it?) – but they also added what looks like a sporadically-productive in Senegalese forward Jamal Thiare, a midfielder who appears most comfortable in Portugal or France (probably an 8, also Xande Silva?), plus a Georgian forward (Saba Lobzhanidze), who parlayed a good run in the Danish League to some slim years between Turkey and Greece.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
I’m choosing to interpret all of the above moves as Atlanta attempting substance, even thin stuff, over the flash of high-risk record signings. And gods know this team needs stability. That’s gonna get tested something (Sasha) fierce, even in the home games (e.g., v NSH, v CIN, v Messiami) and the away games aren’t much better (@ SEA, @ FCD, @ DC, @ PHI). All in all, Atlanta looks like a team that will need all six points of the padding between them and an early end to 2023.

Feel the aspiration, wait for the pain...
Chicago Fire FC
8-7-8, 32 pts., 23 games played; 31 gf, 31 ga (0); home 5-1-6, away 3-6-2
Last 10 League Results: TTLLWWLWWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
Interesting as the details are – e.g., how impressive is it to beat the Portland Timbers in Portland these days, and how much stock do you put in them beating Nashville, especially post-Leagues Cup? – the main thing to note about Chicago’s recent form is the stack of Ws at the back end.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
With allowances for winning in a PK shoot-out, the Fire swept their group – which included a not-so-good Puebla side, but also a dark-horse Minnesota United FC team – only to fall short against Club America. Still, against the back-drop of their recent league form...noted.
Fresh Moves
Nada. Probably coulda used one or two.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
On a highly personal note, when people tell me the Timbers shouldn’t move on from Giovanni Savarese, Ezra Hendrickson’s name rings in my ears; all that good, good stuff came after Ezra. Stepping away from strained (yet emotionally fair) comparisons, the Fire’s run of form from June 22 through the Leagues Cup has turned them into something of a blank slate. I can’t bring myself to call them a team to watch, but Chicago’s talent looks a little better with a steadier hand on the tiller. As such, I’m putting down a long-shot marker (gimme, gimme good odds) and saying they’ll make the playoffs.

DC United
8-10-6, 30 pts., 24 games played; 32 gf, 34 ga (-2); home 4-3-4, away 4-7-2
Last 10 League Results: LTWLLWLWTL
Strength/Location of Schedule
Bluntly, their last two wins – e.g., a 3-0 drubbing of Cincy and 1-0 road win over Dallas – and on the record above, obviously – rescue them from a 50% rate of failure. They’ve dropped enough dumb points to convince me they ain’t yet all that and may yet be nothing.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
They beat Montreal in Montreal (where their powers are at their strongest), got gently shellacked by UNAM Pumas in DC, and took Philly all the way to PKs before becoming irrelevant. In terms of the competition, I rate that slightly better than “present.”
Fresh Moves
They shipped Victor Palsson (hardly knew ye!), tied a bow on L’Affaire du Taxi Fountas and threw it in the river, and went Panamanian from there, bolstering the defense with a defensive stalwart of the(a?) Slovakian league (Eric Davis) and signing forward(/replacement) Jose Fajardo from the Peruvian top flight. Based on the little I know, fuck it, why not?
Expectations for the Stretch Run
I will neither defend nor prosecute the case against Fountas, but 1) assume the allegations are true, and 2) DC still needs to replace him and I have no sense of whether or not that happened. Moving onto happier topics, DC are (one spot) above the playoff line and, based on the road record of some of their upcoming opponents (v CHI, v SJ, v ATL), they have a decent chance of staying up there.

Club du Foot Montreal
9-12-2, 29 pts., 23 games played; 22 gf, 32 ga (-10); home 8-3-0, away 1-9-2
Last 10 League Results: WTLWWTLLLW
Strength/Location of Schedule
After some decent home wins – e.g., a squeaker over Nashville and a drubbing of Minnesota – they pissed away enough points under weird/winnable circumstances to make me think they don’t belong in the conversation at the moment.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
Who knew losing to DC United would seal their fate, least of all them?
Fresh Moves
As noted above, they ditched Camacho, but cushioned the blow by returning Fernando Alvarez (from Pachuca, New York native, apparently), and raising the ante by poaching sneaky-shit winger Kwadwo Opoku from LAFC....and only one of those moves will help them overcome their biggest weakness (can’t score in a brothel, etc.).
Expectations for the Stretch Run
They have four of the next six games at home, fortunately, even if some aren’t the easiest (v NE, v CLB, v CIN), but reviving that home form is also 100% necessary to this team’s survival. They’re below the line for a reason. Fwiw, I don’t think they make it – which gets to how impressed I’ll be if they do.

Red Bull New York
6-9-8, 26 pts., 23 games played; 22 gf, 26 ga (-4); home 5-3-4, away 1-6-4
Last 10 League Results: WLWLTWLWLL
Strength/Location of Schedule
Their last three losses make – @ CLB, v CIN, @ RSL – make plenty of sense, even for a decent team. Four dropped points at home (v ORL and Charlotte) aside, the Red Bulls look like a competitive team...but still not a good one...
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
Per their brand, the Red Bulls trampled all over fun and basic goodness on the way to winning their group. They continued with a sweet, sweet win over their struggling neighbors, New York City FC (see below; no, keep going) in the first round of the knockouts and before succumbing to a dour Philly side on penalties.
Fresh Moves
They poached a pair of Colombian kids from a couple of teams – Jorge Cabezas Hurtado (forward) and Juan Jose Mina (fullback) (both are 19) – and I don’t see that changing their present situation.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
Credit to them to returning to the land of the living after an atrocious start, but I also don’t see them getting better than half the points on offer over their next 10 games – notable obstacles include – v MIA, @ NE, @ PHI. @ DC - and, with just one opponent from the West (Austin), well, that leaves a lot of zero-sum stuff to navigate for a team that’s going through some shit.

Charlotte FC
6-9-8, 26 pts., 23 games played; 30 gf, 40 ga (-10); home 3-3-5, away 3-6-3
Last 10 League Results: LWLLTTTTTL
Strength/Location of Schedule
A fair number of those ties can be explained, but however does a team grow when you get ever so many of them?
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
As much as they benefited from having Liga MX’s biggest patsy in their group (take a bow, Necaxa!), Charlotte still had to punch through to the quarterfinals against Cruz Azul and Houston. Yeah, yeah, Miami slaughtered them the second they walked through the door (so full of innocence), but a run like that should do good for an underdog on the cusp of competing.
Fresh Moves
They shipped a clutch of (sorry!) unremarkable players – e.g., Nuno Santos, Andre Shinyashiki, and Joseph Mora – but brought in a tank to solidify the midfield (Brecht Dejaegere, a experienced regular in the Belgian league), and Finnish fullback, Jere Uronen, to do....probably fullback things? He’s also very experienced – which tells you a lot about where Charlotte’s head is right now.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
If you’re a Charlotte fan, you’re thanking God for that Leagues Cup run because Charlotte’s going to need all the confidence in the world to claw over the playoff line in the next six games. Here’s the line-up: @ MIA, v LAFC, v ORL, @ NSH, v DC, v PHI. Keep in mind that Charlotte needs to gain points, not lose them.

New York City FC
5-8-11, 26 pts., 24 games played; 25 gf, 30 ga (-5); home 4-2-4, away 1-6-7
Last 10 League Results: LTTTTTWTTL
Strength/Location of Schedule
None of the losses are unreasonable, plus they’ve held serve at home against some of the best of the East, but they’re still under a goal a game on average, which leaves a thin margin for error, etc. Not playoff form, basically.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
Survived a loss to Mexico’s Atlas and made it to the knockout rounds by kicking around 2023’s favorite patsy, Toronto FC, 5-0. They then suffered the pain of losing to their older brother (Red Bull New York) in said knockout round.
Fresh Moves
I can’t call this one fresh, but they called club legend Maxi Moralez back from Argentina. They got pretty damn busy during the Leagues Cup break, honestly, bringing two attacking players (I’ve never heard of, Julian Fernandez (Argentine, 19) and Alonso Martinez (Costa Rican, 24); the latter has the longer track record), a defender (Birk Risa, Norwegian, good-size, middling pedigree), and borrowing midfielder Andres Perea from Philly. Going the other way, Gabriel Pereira checked out to what looks like a Saudi team (Al Rayyan).
Expectations for the Stretch Run
To anyone searching for the silver lining, NYC have played four more games on the road than they have at home – which I suppose would matter more if they had a home record with cheering (they do not). Still, they play six of their next seven games at home, with a couple against teams that travel poorly (e.g., Montreal and Toronto), and they don’t have a bottomless hole to crawl out of (just four points below the line). Maybe the reinforcements help...though I can’t say I’m holding my breath.

Toronto FC
3-11-10, 19 pts., 24 games played; 18 gf, 33 ga (-15); home 3-3-6, away 0-8-4
Last 10 League Results: WTTTLLLLLL
Strength/Location of Schedule
After six straight losses, what can Toronto be but the soft spot in everyone’s schedule, a reprieve from competition?
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
About as well as the rest of their season; nothing matters...
Fresh Moves
Not much to kick around here (except Toronto, hey-oh!): they signed two forwards, one a South African of limited years and experience (Cassius Mailula), the other what looks like a 26-year-old journeyman from the lower reaches of the Bundesliga (Prince Owusu). And, again, say a prayer for Latif Blessing, who is set to have a much, much worse year...
Expectations for the Stretch Run
I don’t see how things get better for them, but, what the hell? Prove me wrong, Toronto!

Inter Miami FC
5-14-3, 18 pts., 22 games played; 22 gf, 36 ga (-14); home 4-5-2, away 1-9-1
Last 10 League Results: LLLLLLTTTL
Strength/Location of Schedule
Jesus Christ, that’s horrific. I have nothing to add.
So, How’d Their Leagues Cup Go?
They’re killing it and having fun along the way. What happens from here doesn’t matter. MLS got the li’l goose of publicity it paid for, so just let ‘em have it. [UPDATE, prior to publication: Miami made it to Saturday’s final and they’re still scoring for fun. The win over Philly looked like a master class in efficient finishing.]
Fresh Moves
They discarded the frustrating Rodolfo Pizarro and bought out an anonymous goalkeeper (Nick Marsman), then added midfielders Diego Gomez, Facundo Farias and Sergio Busquets, a defender named Tomas Aviles and some dude named Lionel Messi.
Expectations for the Stretch Run
Much like Smokey & the Bandit, Miami has a long way to go (they’re 12 points below the playoff line) and a short time to get there (12 games). Then again, they’ve completely rewritten the script for their 2023 season, so who knows what happens? My guess is we’ll all have fun watching them, even if they fail.

Fin.

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