Getting Reacquainted with Orlando City SC, an Erratic Rising Power(?)

Plan A, Part II.

[Standing Disclaimer: While I have watched…just a stupid amount of MLS over the years, I don’t watch the vast majority of games, never mind all of them. As such, it’s fair to take anything below that isn’t a hard number or a physical trophy as an impression, a couple steps removed.]

Thumbnail History

Orlando City SC’s history follows the traditional expansion team narrative of eating shit for several seasons before finding their feet and running with the rest of the league. Ever the ambitious organization, they strived mightily to avoid that fate – e.g., they signed (aging) Brazilian great Kaka on joining MLS in 2015 and, after he moved on, they tried again by signing (aging) Portuguese great Nani in 2019. MLS broadcasters dutifully hyped both players, but Kaka never carried them to the playoffs and Nani would burn one season he could barely afford to (because old) before Orlando provided the supporting cast to get them there. On that last piece, it wasn’t for lack of trying: Orlando’s all-time roster (one of the good ones, btw) amounts to a casting call of the good, the great and the reliable from teams all over MLS, maybe even yours. Unfortunately, few of them lasted long and even fewer of them delivered the goods. Orlando’s turning point came in the Weird Year, aka, 2020, aka, the COVID season, when they not only made the playoffs for the first time, but also reached their first final, the MLS Is Back tournament (won by my Portland Timbers!). Tempting as it is to argue that Orlando enjoyed homefield advantage throughout the tournament, it's not like they had fans cheering them on, because no one did. What’s more, they argued against 20202 as a fluke where it counts, i.e., on the field: Orlando have qualified for the playoffs every season since. They didn’t always hit them in the best form – e.g., see 10th and 13th place finishes in 2021 and 2022, respectively – but they have 1) found (a form of) consistency, and 2) just wrapped up their best-ever regular season in 2023, finishing second overall and pushing eventual champs (and damn good team) Columbus Crew SC to extra-time in the Eastern Conference semifinals.

Best Season(s)

Didn’t mention that they won the 2022 U.S. Open Cup in the above, but I’m still calling 2023 Orlando’s best.

Long-Term Tendencies

Nothing that counts as a pattern, really, at least not beyond having good seasons every time they’ve posted good numbers at both ends of the field – i.e., 2020 and 2023 (also, duh). That said, their defense either killed them or fucking killed them over the first four seasons (2015-2018). It has improved since, but stout defenses are hardly their calling card. The attack yo-yos just as much, all of which is a long way of stating that Orlando puts it all together only now and then, but still more recently than they used to.

Is the ceiling, like, even real, man?

Identity: Shoot for the stars, hit the ceiling for a few…

Joy Points: 1. And they’re only in the positives because they won that one Open Cup. (Index below*)

A Half Dozen Names to Know

Kaka/Nani (2015-2017 and 2019-2021, respectively)

Orlando has never been shy about throwing around cash to make a splash, but they started with the “Aging Star Retirement League” model for some reason – which has its limits. In fairness, both players did produce – and to the tune of ranking fourth and second, respectively, for all-time goals scored for Orlando - but a luxury player is a luxury player.

Cyle Larin(/Daryl Dike/Duncan McGuire (in order, 2015-2017, 2020-2021, and 2023-present)

One weird thing Orlando steadily excelled at: finding great young forwards in the MLS SuperDraft. Larin’s the original model and he remains their all-time leading goal scorer at 44 goals over 89 games (damn, son!). Dike scored at a similar pace (19 goals over 41) and you have to think he would have kept pace with Larin had he stuck around. Duncan, meanwhile, found the net 15 times in his rookie season. That’s just crazy luck (or smart scouting) for a seven-year-old team.

Mauricio Pereyra (2019-2023)

Huh. Just found out that Pereyra went back to his native Uruguay at the end of 2023. Anyhoo, he always struck me as a weird-duck of a player - i.e., a guy who wore the No. 10 shirt, but played a little deeper and fell a little short on “wow!” (decent numbers, tho, especially assists) – but he also felt like Orlando’s first smart and practical signing in terms of actually building an attack.

Pedro Gallese (2020-present)

Love this goalkeeper. Hell of a shot-stopper and just a great all-around presence in the nets. I count him among the reasons Orlando manages to produce strong defenses now and then.

Junior Urso (2020-2022, 2023)

Consider Robin Jansson an honorable mention here (though he arrived a season earlier), but, like Gallese, Urso arrived the same season Orlando got its shit straight in defense. I don’t believe this to be a coincidence. Urso didn’t do it alone, but teams tend to do better when they mind this part of the pitch. The Brazilian was a good, rangy and tenacious player (looks like he moved on too).

Facundo Torres (2022-present)

Torres has a ways to go before he catches up with Larin on goals scored – and he may move on before he does - but I still count him as the best and highest-upside signing Orlando has made to date. Talented, technical and able to do all the things at the sharp end of the attack – and just 23 to boot. It’d be cool if Orlando can hold onto him for another couple seasons.

Where They Finished in 2023 & What the Past Says About That, If Anything

Already noted above, but Orlando finished second overall, six points behind Supporters’ Shield winners FC Cincinnati. They went comfortably over the average for goals scored and just as comfortably under on goals allowed and they picked up almost as many points on the road as they did at home. Just an all-round impressive season and, honestly, a promising sign for the organization. Seems like they're learning...

Notes/Impressions on the Current Roster/State of Ambition

I see that McGuire’s going on loan (with an option to buy) to Blackburn Rovers, so that’s somewhere around 15 goals Orlando will need to replace. They still have plenty of weapons on-hand – e.g., Torres, but there’s also the DP Martin Ojeda, the freshly-signed (if aging) Nico Lodeiro (who’s not on the damn roster?), and I’ve heard talk of real upside for Ivan Angulo – but I’m guessing even those guys would appreciate a focal point for the attack. With Jansson still around, Rodrigo Schlegel beside him, and Gallese still behind, the starting heart of the defense still looks sound and I think they’ve got a decent corps of fullbacks available. I have this vague sense that Wilder Cartagena and Cesar Araujo provide enough in central midfield, but that’s more vibez than knowledge. All in all, Orlando still presents as a strong team, at least when they’ve got all starters on-hand – and I really like the (broadly) youthful roster. For what it’s worth, the Armchair Analyst guy knows more about the holes than I do – e.g., he’s less comfortable with Schlegel – but I expect to see them in the playoff mix, maybe even within earshot of conversations about MLS Cup if they can find a replacement for McGuire.

* Joy Point Index

Winning the CONCACAF Champions’ League: 5 points

Claiming Supporters’ Shield : 4 points

Winning MLS Cup: 3 points

MLS Cup Runner-Up: 2 points

Winning the U.S. Open Cup: 2 points

Winning CONCACAF Champions Cup: 2 points

MLS Is Back Cup: 2 points (yeah, yeah, I’m a Timbers fan; still, that was a tough one)

CONCACAF Champions League Semifinalist: 1 point

Making the Playoffs: 1 point

Missing the Playoffs: -1 point

Missing Playoffs in 1996-97, 2002-2004 (when 80% of the league qualified): - 2 points

Wooden Spoon: -3 points