New York City FC 1-0 FC Cincinnati: The Many, Grace-Given Misses of Alonso Martinez

Alonso Martinez's afternoon, a visual.

FC Cincinnati has managed to stay one goal ahead of the opposition for the past month or so. That was always going to come to an end, of course – people change, hairstyles change, dog people wake up one day and realize they’re cat people, etc. – but Cincy was damned lucky to not lose in a blow out yesterday. New York City FC gave them a taste of their own medicine with a 1-0 win in the shitbox disgrace of a stadium they call home and I’m sure it tasted just as bitter.

About the Game, Briefly
It’s not often I find the lineup presented at the top of the broadcast – half of ‘em feel like misdirection from the head coach, honestly – but NYCFC’s attacking shape looked closer to the 3-2-4-1 than it did to the 4-3-3 shown in the official match report. Keeping all those players high served the familiar purpose of stifling Cincy’s build-out – which was huge – and having players closer to their goal to exploit any turnovers. One direct effect, aka, the huge one, was pinning both DeAndre Yedlin and Lukas Engel against their respective sidelines and cut off their outlets into the middle (hold this thought*). It took Cincy 20-25 minutes to sort out playing through it – they had their first coordinated break-out around the 30th minute (Luca Orellano missed) – or the loosening of NYC’s noose simply coincided with Keaton Parks limping off, but it proved too little, too late. The hosts had already found two quality looks within the first six minutes and it didn’t even take them 10 minutes to open the scoring. The pervasive role luck plays in goal-scoring is one of the more under-appreciated aspects of the game – e.g., it took (think it was) Miles Robinson’s feeble toe-picked “clearance” to steer the ball into the path of Julian Fernandez, who tucked the ball into the lower right corner of Roman Celetano’s – but the first half of the game saw New York make enough of its own luck to export it to abroad. The final stats erase that a bit, but it took (at least) 20 minutes for Cincy’s defense to get a handle on Andres Perea’s back-post runs and Alonso Martinez’ missed penalty kick at the 12th minute was the first of, gods, three(? four?) clear-cut-to-the-point-of-gilded opportunities he got. (To see the overstuffed catalog, kindly reference the full highlights.) If I had to guess at how NYCFC got that many trips to the same well, I’d put money on Pascal Jansen keeping Martinez close to Matt Miazga and putting them in as many foot races as he could; that led to the penalty call, if nothing else.

San Jose Earthquakes (Oof) 4-1 Portland Timbers: I Believe the Term Is Jointly and Severally

The number of things that went wrong...

A team can survive a bad night at the office, being a step behind, connected only in sad little spurts, etc. A team cannot, however, survive a half dozen or so catastrophic defensive errors.

I call that kind of collapse a Five-Minute Fall Apart, even when they unfold over an 11-minute span. The rest of the game wasn’t much better and that’s the beginning of the story of how the San Jose Earthquakes rolled the Portland Timbers 4-1 tonight.

About the Game
The post started with a distinction between collective and individual failure for a reason: the Timbers committed sins both individually and as a team tonight, but they might have muddled through, even if just to a more respectable final score, had, say, both Finn Surman and Kamal Miller not bit like half-starved basses on the pieces of bait San Jose dangled before them. Their mistakes turned into the (borderline) sitters that put the game beyond Portland’s likely longest reach inside the first 30 minutes. Maxime Crepeau could have done better on both shots – the man’s head and feet didn’t seem to have an open channel, on the second goal more than the third, for me – and, as much as I get wishing James Pantemis was there, that does everyone the same amount of good as wishing Surman didn’t overcommit all the way into Nevada on the ball into Ousseni Bouda, or that Miller didn’t sprint all the way to the left sideline just to get nutmegged by DeJuan Jones. That’s the individual stuff and I feel confident arguing that three-minute span killed Portland’s chances at three points tonight. Moving on to the stuff that made even one point unlikely…

San Jose scored their first goal on their third (or fourth) run at the same attacking movement – i.e., push the ball outside to a runner sprinting to get around the Timbers’ widest defender on one side or the other, then pull it back to an attacking player who drifted into the space left open by a Portland backline that appears willing to collapse into its own damn goal. Seeing them come close mere minutes before the 90th on the same damn play felt like the right way to wrap up the game, but the problem was always the same. When San Jose pushed the ball wide, an Earthquake player curled off Portland’s defensive line and none of those players tracked that movement; Timbers midfielders – e.g., Joao Ortiz was the closest available option on their first goal – failed to run back to cover that run, leaving some quality attackers with time and the full width of the goal to fire at from around the penalty spot. Under those circumstances, whose man is that? The answer falls somewhere between everyone’s, no one’s and the first player to see him peel off. And that’s the, or maybe just a, collective failure.

San Jose Earthquakes Scouting Report: Lady or the Tiger, If With Less Risk

MLS's Bill Bellichek? (Nah, and thankfully.)

Am I short-changing this report a bit? A bit, maybe. I mean, what is there to analyze, really?

Can the San Jose Earthquakes win this? Of course, they can.

Is that likely?

The only argument they have for “yes” is that big, lonely win versus DC United. Bet the longest outdoor bar in America rocked that night…

To the game at hand…

San Jose Earthquakes
3-6-1, 10 pts., 20 gf, 19 ga (+1), home 2-3-1, away 1-3-0
Last…6, 7, 8 Results: LLLTWLLL
Strength/Location of Schedule
v MIN (0-1 L); v COL (1-2 L); @ CLT (1-4 L); v SEA (1-1 D); v DC (6-1 W); @ LAFC (1-2 L); v SKC (3-5 L); @ CLB (1-2 L)

Outside some blips that even their fans have forgotten, the Earthquakes have been terrible since 2012. A season that started with two lopsided wins and some too-soon, “say, is this a little Bruce Arena magic?” (pleading guilty, with reasons of lack of data and a need to fill copy) has been answered with, “nah, still San Jose.” The defense trots a mere three goals behind in the backwards race for the most goals allowed – though, in fairness, that field is surprisingly crowded – and that has killed them, but a cast of once-greats on a revival package tour has them hanging in MLS’s Western Conference at a lofty…11th. On the plus side, they’re just three points behind a Seattle team that has lost Jordan Morris for a chunky chunk of 2025.

Arena has stuck with the 3-5-2 over the past three games (a reliable example, probably?). The constants include the three players The San Jose Organization gambled on – Cristian Espinoza, Josef Martinez and Cristian Arango, with the latter in the front two and the former covering (most of) the right – and a reasonably steady cast of players that hint at why San Jose didn’t stick around at the top the West. They’re better with Daniel in the net (especially after a fragile performance by Earl Edwards, Jr. versus Sporting KC) and have started Dave Romney (always) and Rodrigues (a little less so) in the three at the back. I have a vague sense Bruno Wilson made them better, but he hasn’t played since DC, though, for what it’s worth, rookie Max Floriani filled in at Columbus last week and looked all right. Bruce hasn’t settled the midfield, cycling variously among Ian Harkes, Nico Tsakiris, Beau Leroux, Mark-Anthony Kaye, and, wow, Ahmal Pellegrino – who I’d guess Arena tried as a playmaker – but it mostly makes them porous through midfield*. Vitor Costa de Brito has started opposite Espinoza on the left in every game I looked at, but that’s recent (he has just 346 minutes on the season), so maybe that side improves. All that aside, there’s a very basic method to whatever damage San Jose can inflict, and I’ll get to that after confessing sources.

New York City FC Scouting Report: A Simple Matter of Overcoming Test Anxiety

You got this, bro(s)!

This feels like the first real test for FC Cincinnati in a while…even if it doesn’t look as tough – or as fun – as it used to. Is it just me, or did Cincy and New York City FC play some wild ones around the time Cincy got their shit together?

I’d look into it, but MLSSoccer.com has been stripped for parts to push people to their shitty app. I will never let this go...

Starting with the basics…

New York City FC
4-4-2, 11 pts., 12 gf, 13 ga (-1); home 3-1-0, away 1-3-2
Last...huh, 8 Results: WWDLLWLW
Strength/Location of Schedule
ORL (2-1 W); v NE (2-1 W); @ CLB (0-0 D); @ ATL (3-4 L); v MIN (1-2 L); v PHI (1-0 W); @ NE (0-2 L); @ TFC (1-0 W)

If anything made NYCFC a reliably competitive team through its best seasons, it was defense. They weren’t much better than average defensively in 2024 and merely occupy the mushy middle in that category this season. But for the fact they average just over a goal for per game (1.2), just over a goal allowed per game (1.3) wouldn’t be so bad, but that combo only makes them good enough for ninth in MLS’s Eastern Conference. One team constant for them did carry over: NYCFC get results in the vast, misshapen stadium they call home - and there lies Cincinnati’s greatest challenge. I don’t know much about their new-to-2024 Dutch head coach, Pascal Jansen, but he put in about eight years in the Eredivisie (or thereabouts; don’t know what Jong PSV is, doesn’t feel enormously important; cool detail about his mom in his bio, tho), and spent 2024 coaching Hungary’s Ferencvaros. More germane to the here and now, Jansen typically goes with a 4-3-3 and the guys he started against both Philly (in NYC) and Toronto (in Toronto) look like the early 2025 version of Plan A. That starting set includes some quality personnel – e.g., Thiago Martins in central defense (think he's shaved off a couple goals, fwiw), Keaton Parks as a ball-winning two-way player and Golden-Boot chaser, Alonso Martinez (six goals, so far) – but I like to hold up the newly-embiggened Justin Haak as a talisman for what NYCFC both has and lacks. Think more drilled competence than game-changing excellence. Something else I can’t shake: how is Maxi Moralez still starting for this team when he was “getting up there” in 2021? Rounding out the regulars, they’re getting decent early production out of Hannes Wolf, who kind of lingers on the sides behind the leading edge of the attack, and they have decent, if under-productive wing/fullbacks in Kevin O’Toole (reliably on the left) and whomever starts between Mitja Ilenic and Tayvon Gray. None of the players mentioned have produced a noteworthy number of assists – something that made sense as I watched them.

FC Cincinnati 2-1 Sporting Kansas City: Progress and Precarity

Not entirely apt, I just like it.

The three points look the same in the standings - and, hello, top row - and FC Cincinnati got the expected win over a Sporting Kansas City team that has at least seven reasons to feel desperate. And yet, their 2-1 win took a lot more magic than it should have. And that matters when you think about Cincy playing taller competition.

About the Game, Briefly
Cincy looked like the cat idly swatting around a mouse over the opening 10 minutes, but the mouse started nipping at the paw from there, maybe even broke a little skin. Those little nibbles took the form of half-chances, most of the early ones through Dejan Joveljic (once, it took a hastily-assembled mob to keep him from turning a Tah Anunga giveaway into a sitter), but SKC also fired the first shots on goal and generally looked like the better bet to open the scoring…until a play that came out of the backside of nowhere turned the game on its head. Whether by choice or gamble, the visitors left Lucas Engel free on their right for most of the first half and dared Cincinnati to find a use for him. The cat bit back (a little heavy on the metaphor, sorry) when the ball finally found Engel where he could get a clean look on goal. His power/placement shot forced a save/rebound out of John Pulskamp who pushed it directly to the well-compensated and, in that moment, unmarked Kevin Denkey. He finished what might have been Cincy’s first shot of the half that ended the first half at 1-0 to the hosts. SKC shook off the blow and came out as if playing for their jobs. They knocked Cincinnati back on their heels over the opening 20 minutes of the half and even made Cincy sweat a little with a Daniel Salloi shot from no more than eight yards out and someone (probably Safi Suleymanov) coming within a foot or two (at most) of clipping an own-goal off Anunga’s heel (have to think at least one of those shows up in the full highlights). With Cincinnati bringing 80% of SKC’s energy, Pat Noonan moved to bury the game around the 65th minute by bringing on a recovering Obinna Nwobodo (for Anunga) and setting Sergio Santos loose up top; the fact he pulled (the still-recovering) Matt Miazga for Santos speaks to the mindset. The impact was far from immediate – I suspect half of Cincy’s 14 shots didn’t come until those last 10 free-wheeling minutes before the final whistle – but, for my money, those changes tipped the game and brought a little more vigor and composure to a team/shape that kept bending and chasing to that point. Even then, it took something special from Denkey – we’re talking with a diamond-studded bow and like he read first your diary, then your mind to get it 1,000% perfectly-right – for Cincinnati to score the insurance goal they ultimately needed to take all three points. When Zorhan Bassong finally broke through for SKC, and on a goal that would have shined bright on any other afternoon, they got the goal their performance deserved. Not enough, but a much-needed sliver of hope for their next game.

Los Angeles Galaxy 2-4 Portland Timbers: The Sweet, Possibly Misplaced Scent of Potential

The Portland Timbers might be actually be…like, good this season. On evidence of everything, up to and including tonight’s game, the Los Angeles Galaxy is not a good team, so that bold stretch has less to do with the specific result of the Timbers beating the Galaxy 4-2 in LA, or even Portland’s current six unbeaten, four-game winning streak than the loud “clicking” sounds coming off the pitch every time they play…can the Timbers Army do Beatnik snap applause loud enough for the field mics to pick up?

About the Game
I can best sum up the first half by saying the game's first shot on goal went in, Timbers 1-0 at the half. Some good things happened – e.g., Finn Surman and Joao “Big First Step” Ortiz combining to contain a palpably eager Joseph Paintsil – but the game rarely rose higher than a flailing stalemate over the opening 45 minutes until Antony ran down a Santiago Moreno looping cross, turned with it, chipped over his defender and teed up David Da Costa for that lonely goal. Real one-eyed-man-in-the-land-of-the-blind stuff, basically, and then the halftime whistle sounded. The Galaxy came out as something like the same team – which, factually, they were – but Portland came out of the locker room transformed, as if inspired by a speech, the abrupt realization that they’d survived the worst, or both, and commenced to play the confident, connected soccer that savvy fans pay to see and swoon over. Just after the 50th minute, the Timbers went from besieging the Galaxy’s defensive third to an organized retreat after a turnover to scoring a slick insurance goal at the 53rd minute by the foot of Santiago Moreno: the three-to-four minute sequence that proceeded it might have been the most “soccer” soccer Portland has played all season, just checking all the boxes on how the manage and win a game. With the game slipping away, Greg Vanney gambled on a mass substitution – a shift change that included Marco “Chekhov’s Gun” Reus – but the same all-star team that created Portland’s second goal did themselves one better on their third. Even with my money on Kevin Kelsy skying that shot eight times out of ten, he capped a stellar, “yes, and” counter run up the left by David Da Costa and Antony with a net-bursting first-time shot (oof, may have to check the full highlights) that, despite a couple hiccups, buried the game. As everyone who tuned in knows, the Galaxy pulled back two goals in three minutes – the first on the kind of play that made LA so lethal just one season ago, the second due to a mixture of magic and missing the obvious – and that momentary lapse in bowel control sullied what would otherwise have been a “happy Halloween, we are here, motherfuckers” kind of performance. Instead, it staggered into…let’s call it a karaoke version of the same line. Which brings me to my favorite part of the game…

MLS Western Conference Round-Up: Checking the Blowouts & the Wrong End of the Standings

I go with the wind, I am the wind. That is me. True story.

If all goes according to plan – and if you’re holding your breath, by the gods, I urge you to stop – I will top next week’s version of this post with Portland Timbers’ match reportage. For anyone who’s curious what that will look like, it should be something like the Eastern Conference round-up posted to this same channel last night. But also shorter. I posted earlier on the Timbers letting two points slip away versus LAFC last Saturday, but fuck it, it’s early and Portland’s in fourth place and when’s the last time that happened. For the record, this used to be the kind of thing I would look up, but The Mothership has stripped a lot of the links and connectivity out of their archived material, which makes that kind of thing a lot harder…what a bunch of assholes.

A final programming note: most weeks, I will watch whichever team the Timbers have next, but there’s no goddamn way I’m sitting through Austin FC beating the Galaxy by one damn goal when I’ve already stared at both of those teams more than anyone but their biggest fans should have to.

Right, let’s kick around what happened in MLS’s Western Conference last weekend. Just the good shit.

Seattle Sounders 3-0 Nashville SC
Why This Game?
A combination of trying to figure out what’s going on with Nashville and keeping your enemies close…

The Game, Briefly (watched 1-45)
First, both teams rested their share of regular starters, if for reasons unknown – Albert Rusnak and Jordan Morris for Seattle, and Edvard Tagseth, aka, Nashville’s Engine – and, against the even numbers in the final stats, the game was over by the 34th minute. As confessed above, I only watched the first half (fine…most of it), but I caught at least five of Nashville’s shots on goal in the full highlights and never saw them serve up anything more threatening than a kitten in a sombrero. One li’l curiosity to note: wily veteran Andy Najar played some role in at least two Seattle goals, one by commission (the first goal), the other by omission (what was he doing so far from Paul “Everyman” Rothrock on that third goal?). Pedro de la Vega got a lot of hype in the Official post-game chatter (aka, MLS Wrap Up...gotta stop watching that bilge), but even he credited Obed Vargas for teeing up his goal. The Sounders overwhelmed Nashville, no question, and took just 15 minutes to bury them. Sometimes a game just gets away from a team.

FC Cincinnati Wins! & an Eastern Conference Round-Up

I've got this! Nothing to worry about!

For readers who follow me on Bluesky (not verified, never will be, but I am me!), this is where the latest iteration of The Plan comes together. Faced with the coming of the annual tradition that is Major League Soccer’s long, largely meaningless summer, the idea of identifying and flagging minute shifts within two teams started to weigh more than I could bear. When something has to give, it’s always going to be FC Cincinnati, i.e., my MLS side-piece.

To announce the next Five-Minute Plan (named for how long these tend to last): I’m sticking with Cincy as a center-piece for coverage, but instead of writing stand-alone posts for them, their games will be one of three Eastern Conference games – or game that involve at least one Eastern Conference team (see below) - featured in a weekly wrap-up post that rolls what they did in with the East as a whole. By way of showing that I still love ‘em true, Cincinnati will be the only games I watch all the way through; I wound up spending between 40-50 minutes on this week's other two featured games – with time added in both cases searching for periods where one of the teams improved in some visible way. (In both cases…they did not.)

The inspiration for the shift follows from a desire to watch more footage and write less about it. If I like this well enough, my Portland Timbers may get the same treatment. Oh, and the Scouting Reports probably are really dead at this point. The Mothership stopped embedding links into the Form Guide (fuckers), and that added at least an hour on the linking/sourcing side. With that, let’s get to the first featured game:

Chicago Fire FC 2-3 FC Cincinnati
The Game, Briefly
Lively, and certainly better than expected. Both teams gave as good as they got, or close to it, and pulled off some smart in-game changes to manage the other’s tactics. The Fire started stronger and arguably (scratch that, definitely) got burned when a trip by the referee opened a full-field counterattack and Cincy’s first goal. Outside a very healthy blip at the start of the first half, the visitors had the better of the game, due mostly to a high-press that 1) flustered a Chicago team compelled to play out of the back by its eccentric, yet popular head coach, and 2) led to Cincinnati’s second goal, when Sergio Santos caught substitute CB Sam Rogers admiring the ball near Chicago’s left corner flag. One of the aforementioned in-game changes – alternating the outlet pass between the channel and the sideline – gave a Chicago a goal in between (31st minute, fwiw), when Jonathan Bamba slipped around a wildly over-committed Miles Robinson and played Hugo Cuypers into a foot-race versus Matt Miazga. Chicago came out determined to erase Cincy’s lead – and made a damn good fist of it (is that phrase real?) – but the Orange and Blue gradually shoved them back and started picking off stray outlets passes. Evander capitalized on one of these when Luca Orellano played him into a one-v-one against Jack Elliott. The Brazilian’s secret power of lulling defenders to sleep then suddenly moving really quickly, omigod(!) kicked in from there and Evander five-holed Chicago ‘keeper Chris Brady from, at most, a 20-degree angle. Cincy wasn’t going to lose a two-goal lead and they generally looked more like scoring their fourth goal than Chicago getting their second, but Miles Robinson had one more gaffe to give, and one more goal to gift. That’s a bit harsh against what happened – i.e., Robinson had already stood up Cuypers when Andrew Gutman bumped into as he chased the ball – but the penalty was given and scored by Brian Gutierrez…

Portland Timbers 3-3 Los Angeles FC: A Daydream, Shattered

A whole lot of "ohmm," till Bouanga fucked it up.

Tough nut to name, really. Walnut? Pecan? What delicious, high protein nut best…embodies tonight’s tantalizing 3-3 draw at Providence Park versus Los Angeles FC? I’m going with pistachio, because those fuckers can be hard to crack.

About the Game
The full highlights haven’t been posted as I type (nvm, went up as I typed), so I’m leaning into bare chronology on this, but one simply can’t escape the feeling that the Portland Timbers let a couple points slip through their toes tonight (game played with the feet, etc.). After going up by two goals – the first, a (deserved) penalty kick earned and (dare I say symbolically?) scored by Felipe Mora, the second, a plum of a finish by Santiago Moreno on an attacking move that typified the night* – the Timbers looked as steady and assured as I’ve seen them all season. Olivier Giroud scoring his first goal of 2025 on the stroke of halftime didn’t change that impression, coming out of the back-side of the blue as it did, and I spent the first half of the second half daydreaming about how I would characterize a home win over an LAFC side that has struggled early and traveled poorly over the opening weeks of 2025. The gap between David Martinez’s equalizer and Felipe Mora’s go-ahead goal**gave me a mere two minutes to second guess that daydream, so I, for lack of a better phrase, drifted back into a space that felt one glorious hell of a lot like the first half of the super-fun roller-coaster good-times of the 2024 season. Despite disturbing signs from the outside – my handwritten notes back up the final allotment shots/shots-on-goal in the official stats - that pleasant fog enveloped me all the way until somewhere around the 90th minute, when Diego Chara caught Denis Bouanga’s toe in the area, Portland's favorite referee, Guido Gonzalez, Jr., pointed to the spot and Bouanga leveled the game with a stone-cold penalty kick. Don’t know why the danger signs didn’t flash earlier, or why I didn’t see them if they did. Maybe I was blinded by the Pants over my eyes…

…have I mentioned that LAFC probably should have gone up 1-0 by the second minute? This was a wild one, soccer’s version of a feeding frenzy, if until Portland’s second go-ahead goal. To float a theory/response: is it possible Portland taking their foot off the gas doomed them to the draw? Against that, did they have the legs to do otherwise?

Los Angeles FC Scouting Report, Everything to Play for, Even More for the Hype

This somehow relates to Consumer Cellular. Yay!

The lazy shits that run The Mothership no longer post live links in the Form Guide. Getting up to speed on work-arounds played a pretty big role in the shift in content. The MLS app is weird and I’m bitter, strongly thinking of complaining to AARP and Consumer Cellular to see what they can do about it. At any rate, on with the show, this is literally it.

Los Angeles FC
4-4-0, 12 pts., 10 gf, 11 ga (-1); home 3-1-0, away 1-3-0)
Last (why not?) Six Results: LLWLLW
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ SEA (2-5 L); v ATX (0-1 L); @ SKC (2-0 W); v SD (2-3 L); @ HOU (0-1 L); v SJ (2-1 W)

Really trying to tighten up these posts and in several ways. Doing this live and from the top, we’ll see how it goes…

The (Not So) Brief (about as well as expected)
Between fixture congestion and players coming in and out of the lineup (likely due to fixture congestion), LAFC hasn’t started so good - so maybe they don’t mind Miami shoving them out of the CCC. They kicked off 2025 with a couple stingy home wins (versus Minnesota, then NYCFC) before playing four of the next five on the road. They picked up three points across those four road games, all in a comfortable win at a, frankly shitty, Sporting KC team (who, fwiw, looked just as hapless, yet better than they did hosting the Timbers); they also gave a marginally-less shitty Houston team its lone win of 2025. Seattle kicked the shit out of ‘em, but LAFC had some positives to take out of the San Diego loss, despite going down a player around the 60th; they created good chances after Igor Jesus checked himself out. Not a lot to love about road life for this team…

Up until last week, Steve Cherundolo loved his 4-3-3 – a line up that suits them, in my mind, and best represented (in my mind) by the lineup at San Diego – and mostly tinkered with it. Timbers fans will see a lot of familiar faces – e.g., Hugo Lloris in goal; shifting pairs at center back around Aaron Long and Eddie Segura; Ryan Hollingshead running up and down the left; Tim Tillman and Mark Delgado in midfield and…probably Denis Bouanga? – and have some sense of what they do. New faces include former Dallas defender, Nkosi Tafari (eh), Jesus at somewhere between a No. 6 and a No. 8 (also, eh), and a pair of promising young ‘uns around the wings in Nathan Ordaz and David Martinez. Despite having a couple starts up top, Olivier Giroud already looks like an after-thought (good comedy after the in-house propaganda (aka, the Onside series) fluffed his arrival), and it’s hard to know how much game they’ll get out of new left back Artem Smolyakov, but he scored an elegant goal at San Diego.

Sporting Kansas City 2-4 Portland Timbers: Semi-Instant Reaction & Full Celebration

What do you mean, "my flatulence"?

Without going too deep, this will be the first of the weekly posts I’ll be shifting to in an attempt to…look, God know what. At this point, any long time readers know as well as I do that there. is. no. answer. to. that. question.

At any rate, the current plan is to post an immediate (to semi-immediate) post-game reaction post right after I watch the game, and then to add the scouting report on the Timbers’ opposition for the following week and notes on the current state/vibe of the Western Conference to that same post later in the week. Plugs will go up on Bluesky when the post is complete, but the idea is to create a Weekly post that, when all’s said and done, reviews that past week’s result, previews the next week’s game, and puts both in the context of the Western Conference writ large. And, to cap it with the punchline, I’ll be saving time on all this by tightening up the copy. And god laughed…

About the Game
When a game starts, you often get to see the idealized version of how each team hopes to play the game – and I think both the Portland Timbers and Sporting Kansas City offered decent spins on their better selves to start. While Portland’s first goal didn’t come entirely out of the blue – i.e., it was David Da Costa’s terrorizing of SKC’s right that led to the corner kick – but it’s not every day we have the privilege of seeing a teammate, in this case, David Ayala, bolt into the area and tuck it home. Spilled my damn drink, then and there. Kansas City defenders didn’t see it coming either – defending Da Costa’s cross passed from Shapi Suleymanov to Dejan Joveljic - and that set the tone for a game that ultimately turned into the kind of 4-2 road win that makes a fan feel good about the local team. Right, marching through these goals briskly as possible…

SKC worked the system I flagged in the Scouting Report – i.e., isolate Suleymanov on the right and let him cook – and he got Diego Chara to poke on a maneuver inside. Suleymanov equalized on the ensuing free kick, partially thanks to Ian Smith misjudging the size of his own ass, which froze everyone else and opened a lane for the ball to fluff into the far-side netting. After a mere 10 minutes of the same back and forth, the Timbers retook the lead with a move up the(ir) left again: Ayala stepped into a space between The SKC Jacobs (i.e., Bartlett and Davis), they went straight to “oh, shit” mode, Ayala slipped by them, fired on goal and, honestly, hit Kevin Kelsy with the ball. Ugly, but it fucked John Pulskamp all the way up, 2-1 Timbers. SKC equalized again, and through Suleymanov again, when he got loose on Portland’s left and, after getting past one defender (don’t recall), got stopped cold by the bottom of Antony’s shoe on his shin (gotta watch the full highlights for that). After the ref stared at the monitor for what felt like days, he pointed to the spot, Joveljic stepped up and scored a dirty Panenka. Put a pin in that one. If I had to explain the first half to an alien, I’d run with something like, 45 minutes of basically competent soccer (it knows what it is; don’t even go there), punctuated by catastrophic errors.

Sporting Kansas City Scouting Report: Mind the Banana Peel

See it, know it, avoid it. Also, cool shoes!

If that home loss to a limping Los Angeles FC side wasn’t in the sample, I would feel a bit less nervous about this one. Which is to say, I’m still a bit nervous. And that’s very much despite this…

Sporting Kansas City
1-5-1, 4 pts., 8 gf, 12 ga (-4); home 1-2-1, away 0-3-0
Last 5 Results: LDLLW
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ DC (1-2 L); v MIN (3-3 D); v LAFC (0-2 L); @ FCD (1-2 L); v STL (2-0 W)

Notes from the Field
Because they’re more mystery than I like, I clocked time over two of Sporting KC’s recent home results: the salvation draw versus Minnesota United FC from some weeks back and last weekend’s first-of-2025 win over St. Louis CITY FC; for reasons that look more misplaced with each passing week, I only glanced at their more recent home loss to LAFC…I got nuthin' besides, hype sticks, man...

Somewhat related, and no doubt because I only watched them at their best, I don’t get how Sporting KC isn’t better this season. Sure, Minnesota lit them up for three goals before they stirred – two of them easy as you like, the other a bomb from Hasani Dotson – but they kept their heads, stuck to what looked like the plan (still under Peter Vermes, fwiw), and fought back for their first point of the season. They never looked actually bad in that one, at least not any time I was watching, and most goals against played out more as a Minnesota sucker-punch (TM) than failure. Against that, Timbers fans should review some or all of the win over St. Louis to appreciate the worst-case scenario. Official stats be damned, SKC all but dissolved St. Louis’ press and strung together extended, suffocating spells of possession over both periods I watched (1st through the 15th, then 65-85). Any time St. Louis got on the ball, they struggled to do much with it; SKC defenders even shoved around Joao Klauss here and there. It took them most of the game to score their first goal and it took them many, many passes to create that goal. It felt like 20+, some under pressure, all of them under control, but the final look was clean, even slick. Just to note it, that could very well be the greatest moment of Sporting Kansas City’s season so far.

DC United Scouting Report: This One's About Aspirations

Is the future so bright that I need shades?

What started as a mediocre season for DC United has spun out of control in recent weeks – to the tune of making them the worst defensive team in Major League Soccer. The question a gently-hobbled version of FC Cincinnati answers on Saturday is whether they run with the Club du Foot Montreals of the league, or with the Orlando City SCs, or the…jesus, San Jose Earthquakes. To start with the basics…

DC United
1-3-3, 6 pts., 9 gf, 17 ga (-8); home 1-1-2, away 0-2-1
Last 5 Results: DWDLL
Locale/Strength of Schedule
v SKC (2-1 W); v MTL (0-0 D); @ ORL (1-4 L); v CLB (1-2 L); @ SJ (1-6 L)

Notes from the Field
Because I didn’t think the debacle at San Jose would yield much useful data – just from the seven-plus minutes of the highlights, DC gifted San Jose the first two goals, got in one another’s way all over the field, and broke the basic rules of holding a good defensive line on goals four and five – I spent most of my time (about 45 minutes) watching their home loss to Columbus Crew SC. Based on that review, head coach Troy Lesesne still has DC defending high and playing to force turnovers all over the field (i.e., they hunt the ball), Christian Benteke remains their key player/salvation (he’s scored over half their goals so far), and, besides that, it’s mostly a lot of semi-headless running around. They kept the game versus Columbus tighter (bravo), but they still did plenty of getting in one another’s way and players that compel one to say, “look out for this guy,” of “one of the league’s best” are in short supply. Despite all of the above, DC posts respectable top-line numbers – e.g., they’ve reliably posted shots in the double digits and get around a half dozen on goal every game (the Columbus game was the exception) – and the defensive numbers rarely looked egregious…though the 4.0 goals allowed/game over the past three games would appear to suggest some issues…

Notes on Formation & Personnel
Despite the above, Lesesne has stuck with the same line up/personnel combo over the past four games, with only a couple adjustments barely worth noting (prime example, for reference). The back four in his inevitable 4-2-3-1 has included David Schnegg at left back, Lucas Bartlett and Kye Rowles for center backs and Aaron “I Hope He Likes Living in DC” Herrera as the preferred right back; a youngster named Derek Dodson has acted as understudy and started in the San Jose disaster. Matti Peltola has paired with Hosei Kijima at the two in every line up I reviewed, while the preferred three appears to be Joao Peglow (their assist leader, fwiw, at two), Gabriel Pirani, and the high-effort, ever-combative Jared Stroud (Dominique Badji, who is too old for this shit, started over him at San Jose). Benteke tops off the formation at the one, aka, the loneliest number (number). Again, Columbus played one step ahead of DC on both sides of the ball and, gods willing, Cincinnati will do the same, but both the game at Orlando and the game at San Jose present as implosions – i.e., decent performances utterly undone by repeated, catastrophic mistakes.

Austin FC 0-0 Portland Timbers: The Littlest Possible Win

How I watch with my ears...

Nobody won yesterday’s 0-0 draw between Austin FC and the Portland Timbers, very much up to and including any and all fans who turned up or tuned in. In its defense, the highlights reminded me of some…action I either forgot, or that didn’t enter my consciousness during the periods when I let my eyes rest and took my best shot at watching the game with my ears. Then again, the five-minute run-time tells its own story.

About the Game
Austin played the 4-3-3 that I touted for in the Scouting Report and still believe suits them best (the official line up was a lie). It never generated much offense for them, though spendy new striker, Myrto Uzuni, did bookend the game with looks on goal at either end that showcased what he’s all about – or can be. That accounts for two of Austin’s eleven shots total and their only shot on frame came when Brandon Vazquez sandwiched a point-blank header at Portland’s James Pantemis in between stumbling at the feet of Jimer Fory and chasing the ref to demand a penalty kick. Think that happened…somewhere close to the 80th minute and, sure, that does get me ahead of the game, but I wanted to wrap up Austin before turning to the Timbers. Back to the game writ large, after 30 minutes of…not a whole lot (and the first attempted nap*), both teams took more interest in attempting to forcing the ball through one another’s lines. And then came the halftime whistle, which referee Drew Fischer couldn't blow fast enough. The first team to stir was Portland. After posting a meager three shots with one on goal over the opening 45 minutes, they started to find ways to get the ball into Austin’s defensive third. One popular route saw David Ayala step higher into central space to receive a short pass inside, which he then carried into the teeth of Austin’s last line of defense; seems like a nice move to file away for the future use. While that, and other options, got the ball closer to Brad Stuver’s goal, Austin’s last line did a good job of pushing Portland’s attacking moves outside the frame of the goal, forcing them to cross or take shots from diagonal angles (Santiago Moreno probably fired the best of these). The Timbers held a very real competitive edge over the opening 20-25 minutes of the second half and, over the entire 45-minute period, they grew their top-line attacking numbers from three shots with one on goal to 13 shots with seven on goal by the final whistle. Nothing I saw from Portland struck me as outright dangerous – it’s even possible Austin had the best smattering of chances – but, as I type this, I’d rather be Portland than Austin.

FC Cincinnati 1-0 New England Revolution: Notes on Transitory State

"Dude, my balls were swimming by the 10th."

Don’t expect any co-workers to excitedly ask whether you caught the big FC Cincinnati game yesterday, never mind brag about seeing live and in persona at the Big Tickle. None of that means the 1-0 win they picked up over the New England Revolution wasn’t a good thing, so much as questions about whether it means anything beyond three useful points.

About the Game
The two teams played a slippery bastard, what with the rain pouring from the skies, so you’d get slapstick like Carles Gil flopping to his ass midway through one of his defender-twisting turns. The same affliction plagued any dribbler – e.g., Luca Orellano – but the teams still managed to create a respectable haul of chances between them. Cincy had the better chances early – some of the best they’d get in the first half, in fact - but New England got a hold of the game, little by little. The loose theory/dream of midfield dominance from my Scouting Report didn’t hold up so good – the Revs’ Matt Polster probably had the best two-way game of any player, and my personal honorable mention goes to Cincy’s Tah Anunga – which saw Cincinnati’s shots come from further and further away until the halftime whistle. Peak anxiety for the hosts undoubtedly came in the stretch between a New England header off the post (didn’t see who tagged it (well), but leaning toward Mamadou Fofana?) and Ignatius Ganago’s deflected shot squicking between Roman Celentano’s fingers, but that covers the “what might have beens” more or less (Luca Langoni fired a couple from range, etc.). Cincinnati came out of the locker room with a little fire under them (angry Pat Noonan!) and they probably had their best 15 minutes of the day between the 45th and 60th minute and that best period had slipped halfway out the door when Cincy finally got the go-ahead. Shots to the back-post had been popular all day, and for both teams, but the Orange and Blue finally worked a ball into the 18 that had Kevin Denkey dancing in front of two defenders; his short outlet teed up Corey Baird, who forced a bobble out of (a solid) Aljaz Ivacic, who pushed the ball to Pavel Bucha, who squared it for Sergio Santos to tap home: it took a village, in other words, which isn’t so surprising given some absences. That left 25+ minutes of running around, plus a couple more shots – the last one noted came from a deflected shot around the 80th by Jackson Yueill – and Cincinnati came within an offside flag of marching in an insurance goal (most of these made the full highlights), but the process of putting the game to bed started with Santos’ goal.

Austin FC Scouting Report: Eating the Sandwich

EAT IT, WUSS! (...and never shit again)

The Portland Timbers hosted Austin FC in Week 2 of the 2025 season, so who knew the Texans would be returning the favor so soon? Portland won the game on a late, weird goal and a wrote a whole damn match report that more or less dismissed Austin’s chances for the season…and what do they do but win three straight?

In other news, I can't get the video on the Mothership to fly and that is scrambling all of my shit. Not that this is immediately relevant…

Austin FC
4-2-0, 12 pts., 5 gf, 3 ga (+2); home 2-1-0, away 2-1-0
Last 6 Results: WLLWWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
v SKC (1-0 W); @ POR (0-1 L); v COL (0-1 L); @ LAFC (1-0 W); v SD (2-1 W); @ STL (1-0 W)

Notes from the Field
Both teams have little streaks going, of course, but Austin has three games to Portland’s two and they smuggled six points out of tough venues – e.g., Los Angeles FC’s BMO Stadium and St. Louis CITY FC’s Energizer Park. Slide the win versus the theretofore unbeaten San Diego FC as a nice slice of well-cured pastrami between those two and you have yourself one hell of a sandwich. New head coach Nico Estevez has them grinding out every result they earn – show me a multi-goal win in the above list of results – and the secret to Austin’s early rise to second MLS’s Western Conference owes something like 60% of its success to its defense (i.e., five goals scored, three goals allowed; don’t call it stupid, a major economy just adopted the same logic). After sitting through about 30 minutes of Austin’s win at St. Louis and around 45 minutes of that home win over San Diego, two big-picture details stood out: a broad aversion to risk and the absence of a player that presented and played like a No. 10.

Notes on Formation & Personnel
Estevez has played a 4-3-3 and a pair of 4-4-2s (par example), but he has so far only tinkered with the personnel. The back four typically starts with Brendan Hines-Ike paired with Oleksandr Swatok as center backs and Guilherme Biro and Jon Gallagher to their left and right, respectively. Both fullbacks get forward quite a bit, but Gallagher gets way the fuck up there, more like a wingback. Owen “Son of the Prior Coach” Wolf and new kid Besard Sabovic have been the constants in midfield and, for what it’s worth, I’d call Wolff the closest thing they have to a playmaker. Ilie Sanchez generally starts and/or provides a composed, deep-lying passing hub and I think they like to get their live-wire No. 8, Daniel Pereira, out there often as they can (he missed the road win at LAFC, don’t know why). I suspect a 4-3-3 suits them better because it allows them to start a midfield three of Pereira, Sabovic and Wolff and to push Osman Bukari into a pure attacking/winger role – a choice that pressured St. Louis’ left just long enough for Austin to go ahead through Albanian striker Myrto Uzuni. I haven’t seen much of Uzuni – he didn’t play versus San Diego – but he presents as a poacher, i.e., I didn’t see a ton of him coming back for the ball or combining. Brandon Vazquez leads Austin’s line in just about every way you can think of. He finally broke his duck against San Diego, but a sterling season for FC Cincinnati aside, he appears to have reverted to his hard-working, low(ish) scoring roots as a forward.

New England Revolution Scouting Report: Where Improvement Meets Failure

Builder of dreams? Master of delusions?

Their fortunes haven’t been so good and for some time. After showing up in 2023, the New England Revolution damn near fell off the map in 2024 – only the San Jose Earthquakes strayed into “Thar Be Dragons” – finishing 16 points out of the real playoffs (and nine points below the play-in round) and one slim point above Chicago Fire FC/the abyss. Caleb Porter and The Organization overhauled the roster over the off-season – see the line up /subs in last week’s 2-1 win over Red Bull New York versus the Decision Day line up/subs that handed Inter Miami CF the all-time single-season points record – which brings things current.

New England Revolution
1-3-1, 4 pts., 3 gf, 6 ga (-3); home 1-2-0, away 0-1-1
Last Results: DLLLW (yep, just five games played so far)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ NSH (0-0 D); v CLB (0-1 L); v PHI (0-2 L); @ NYC (1-2 L); v RBNY (2-1 W)

Notes from the Field
Toward the beginning of last weekend’s broadcast, the color commentary guy announced New England had fired just 5 shots on goal in 2025. This has been confirmed. Their first goal of 2025 was an own-goal scored by New York City FC’s Thiago Martins (who, just to note it, had the audacity to lose his shit at his back-line colleagues after last weekend’s collapse at Atlanta United FC after that). How many shots did the Revs fire on goal in that one? Just one. Out of six total. Having sat through about 40 minutes of that game, I’d note a few things: 1) the Revolution didn’t look as incompetent as those top-line numbers suggest, you could see the green shoots, etc., and 2) as suggested by their other top-line numbers (e.g., 6 goals allowed), they can defend. The latter gets a bit sloppy in transition – and NYC took advantage, if just once – but it’s not defense that’s killing them. Also of note, the Revs started 2025 against taller opposition than some, maybe even many. That can be looked at two ways, of course – i.e., are those teams good, or does New England make them so by being bad? – and that’s where recent trends come in. The win over the Red Bulls – which came fucking late, by the way, and after a build-up held together by spit and the gospel according to Norman Vincent Peale (see full highlights?) – was the first time they’d won the xG battle all season (and they posted some harrowing numbers prior). They looked good for it too – had a couple things going on – e.g., Carles Gil feeding Luca Langoni through the right-side channel and playing to a late run by Ignatius Ganago – and that allowed them to more than double their shots on goal on the season. A multitude of questions hang over the win – e.g., how good are the New York teams this season, or just right now? (Red Bull has looked a little baffled every time I’ve watched them, fwiw); is the new Revs roster coming together? – and that points to the main question FC Cincinnati has to answer: are they one of the “good teams” this season?

Portland Timbers 3-1 Houston Dynamo FC: Goal, Assist, Yellow Card

Closest I could get given the search...

A referee has to fuck up a lot to get a nod in any post I put up, res ipso loquitur, etc.. Also, congrats to the handful of people outside the greater Portland and Houston metro areas who saw the Timbers v the Dynamo and thought, “yeah, I guess I don’t have anything better tonight” because that was a pretty fun game to watch. Right? That was fun, right? What, you’re too big for salt water taffy now? Okay, big shot. Fine. (No, I’m not. You're the one going through separation anxiety!)

The point is, the game wasn’t boring, predictions of an incompetent Portland attack slap-fighting a dour Houston defense that barely noticed them held their own sad disco in my head as opposed to crossing over into and ruining the real world. I got a couple things wrong in my Scouting Report on Houston and I couldn’t be happier about it. Time to pick through the guts!

About the Game
The Portland Timbers got off to an electric start on their way to a 3-1 home win that looked like it could have ended 5-1 before the halftime whistle. After a ball squirted forward out of a tackle on Antony (probably) Jimer Fory broke down Houston’s right with everyone in orange furiously back-pedaling in time; his cross to Santiago Moreno actually found Daniel Steres first, but, per one of several themes that repeated/rhymed across the first half, he poked his clearance to Moreno, who fed Felipe Mora, who (probably) announced his wife was pregnant (everyone seemed happier than usual) after scoring Portland’s first goal. I know I wasn’t the only Timbers fan with dreams of jelly drops and a blow-out win dancing in my head over the next (literally) six minutes because Houston handed Portland at least two more tantalizing transition opportunities between the opener and Houston’s equalizer. There’s not much to say about the latter than why is Fory (barely) defending two players and great cross by Jack McGlynn (which means I got some things right in the Scouting Report), but it didn’t take long for the game to revert back to the Dynamo panicking and Portland taking advantage. Once Antony started and finished his run up the right for the Timbers’ second goal – tied together by an inch-perfect pass by Mora – it felt like the only question left to ask was how many more Portland could score. As it happens, the answer to that question was one. The Timbers scored just one more goal between the halftime whistle and the one that called the game – it involved the same players too, Mora and Antony – and that made for a gently nervous start to the second half. Assuming I’m not mashing them into some kind of omni-clip, I counted at least four times over the second half where Houston meticulously played the ball to the edge of Portland’s 18, and even got their toe in it, before the last, desperate shot went wide or smacked into Kamal Miller, Fory, of (most likely) Finn Surman. Houston head coach, Ben Olsen, added Erik Sviatchenko at the beginning of the second half, prompting the first of several “wait, why not start him?” questions, and that got the Dynamo’s feet under them for almost 25…vaguely menacing minutes. If I oversold Houston’s competence in the Scouting Report (I did), this was the place: this team works the ball up the field as well as any team in MLS – particularly when they heed Olsen’s pleas for “CALM” – but the end-result amounts to driving a freshly-paved highway that dead-ends into some Houston neighborhood built off-code and well beneath a flood-plain. A result can be lost in one bad moment – I get it – and, by the same token, any of Houston’s long progressive possessions could have ended with a second equalizer. Back in the real world, they didn't. Moreover, at least eight of them ended with four to five Timbers running at three to four Houston players prioritizing getting back to their own goal, by necessity, because the onslaught didn’t give them the luxury of setting up the optimal match ups. Carrying the point forward…

Nashville SC 1-2 FC Cincinnati: To the Hungrier Hippo Go the Spoils

The scene from Geodis Park.

When your local team gets a game that demands about a half dozen gut-checks and they pass the majority of them. FC Cincinnati’s 2-1 road win at Nashville SC was a big one – probably the biggest of 2025 so far.

About the Game
It played out as a test of wills, honestly, an occasion where either team could have walked away with three points or both could have left with one. The momentum went back and forth throughout – e.g., I thought Nashville held the advantage from the 15th minute to the upper-mid 20s, before Cincy yanked it back over the next 5-10 minutes – and, when the goals came, it didn’t have much to do with which house was ascendant. Cincinnati had the better opening shots (one each for Evander and Luca Orellano) and a nose ahead in the game state, only to see Nashville push them back with counter-raids over the following minutes (I think Hany Mukhtar's near-miss was the first in the full highlights). That threw a wobble into Cincy’s step for a while – for what it’s worth, I don’t think Obinna Nwobodo and Pavel Bucha ever got a firm handle in the middle – but they managed to settle and clamp things down…until Nashville broke the deadlock in the late 30s. Even after Edvard “Eddi” Tagseth got behind Cincy’s (over-committed) left, the set up didn’t look like much. Nick Hagglund (literally) threw himself at the cross (sacrifice the body!), but could only lean it out of danger and accidentally teed up Jack Bauer for a short-range blast from the right side of the area. With the dread prickling up – what would a third winless game mean for Cincy, never mind a defeat? – Evander stepped in to tamp it down as only he can – i.e., getting fouled within the same ZIP Code as the opposition goal and scoring saucily on the ensuing free kick. That sent the teams in the halftime locker room tied and raring to get back to it. Nashville came out the sharper and had multiple, early opportunities to get back on top. The first – and biggest – came when Kevin Denkey did the right thing – i.e., keep tabs on Walker Zimmerman in the area on a set piece – the wrong way – i.e., by wrapping him up not once, but twice. The ref called the penalty, rightly, before Roman Celentano smacked away the penalty kick, righteously. Celentano barely had the time to roll out of that headstand before he had to get back into position for a crazy sequence of saves that included 1) punching out the original cross, 2) kicking away a point-blank shot from the weak side, and 3 (maybe 4)) slapping away one or two follow-ups from still-closer range (maybe all those saves made the official snapshort? nope; MLS doesn't do justice by saves anymore). After that little heroic miracle, the second half settled into the game I expected: long periods of the ball getting tangled among flailing legs and rushing players all over the middle of the field - think Hungry Hungry Hippos where the ball keeps bouncing off the front of the snapping mouths. Here and there throughout that period, Cincinnati exposed themselves with nervous giveaways to Nashville players (more later). They contained most of them (again, more later), just as Nashville contained most of Cincy’s escapes from the midfield scrum. Given that frenzy in the middle, seeing Nwobodo limp off early felt like a potential game-breaker, but the gravity of that battling chaos sucked everything back into itself. To make what could track as a “homer” read, I thought Cincinnati got over Nashville a little over the last 15-20 minutes of the game. Orellano pinged the crossbar off a deflection in the middle of all that, but it was a semi-hopeful ball over the top to (substitute) Corey Baird that handed Cincinnati a golden opportunity to take all three points. After playing a damn near perfect game – it was his man-bunned head that knocked Orellano’s shot to the crossbar – Zimmerman flapped the ball away with his left arm and sent Denkey to the spot. I hate the stutter-step approach, to the extent I believe it should be banned (goalkeepers have enough disadvantages on penalty kicks), but I loved the goal: Denkey beat Joe Willis on the kick and Cincy beat Nashville on the day, the end.

Houston Dynamo FC Scouting Report: The Wrong Kind of Sleeper

This would be badass. Also, not what we're getting.

Won’t lie, I’m dreading this one more than a little. And it has less to do with fear of losing – which, to be clear, is very much on the table – than trepidation about what I believe we’re all about to sit through. Starting with the raw data…

Houston Dynamo FC
0-3-2, 2 pts., 3 gf, 8 ga (-5); home 0-3-0, away 0-0-2
Last 5 Results: LLDLD
Strength/Location of Schedule
v FCD (1-2 L); v MIA (1-4 L); @ CLB (0-0 D); v RSL (1-2 L); @ SEA (0-0 D)

Notes from the Field
The fact Houston has yet to win seems relevant. On a more specific level, I see two types of games in Houston’s recent past: games against strong (or strong-ish) defensive teams – e.g., Columbus Crew SC and the Seattle Sounders, where they fire only about a half dozen shots - and games against…let’s call them more average teams – e.g., FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake, where they post more or less normal numbers and, you know, score goals (see links). For anyone who didn’t see that the Dynamo have scored just three goals this season, please direct (or, more properly, redirect) your attention to the above Information Box. In short, no one’s really lighting it up for Houston in 2025 – all three of those goals were scored by different players, each with different limitations (Amin Bassi, small; Nico Lodeiro, near retirement; Ezequiel Ponce, basic lack of support). Against that, don’t get too carried away with those eight goals allowed because Inter Miami CF scored half of them. Without those four goals out of the equation, Houston is a 1.0 goals against/game team. If you know the names of their starting central defenders, either seek help or admit you have a problem. I kid, I kid (also, I hereby admit I have a problem). Those players are fine, but I don’t think see them as the key to what makes the Dynamo a hard lock to pick. Credit for that goes to a full-team commitment to the fundamentals. Houston plays definitionally competent soccer and that does all kinds of good and useful things for them, up to and including making them hard to beat – and, against what the numbers tell you, creating genuinely high-percentage chances on goal, even if they don't produce so many. Or, in fewer words, Benny-Ball, baby.

Nashville SC Scouting Report: Cincy's Third First Test of 2025

Walker Zimmerman, at pre-game meeting.

Over the weeks after it went up, Nashville SC seems to have made making me eat the somewhat dismissive Scouting Report I posted ahead of their Week 3 game against my Portland Timbers. They whooped the Timbers’ asses, of course, but some of the positives I flagged in my match report have come good. So, yeah, not totally useless. Let’s get into it…

Nashville SC
3-1-1, 10 pts., 8 gf, 3 ga (+5); home 2-0-1, away 1-1-0
Last Results: DLWWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
v NE (0-0 D); @ RBNY (0-2 L); v POR (2-0 W); @ PHI (3-1 W); v MTL (3-0 W)

Notes from the Field
In my defense, between their 2024 season and their first two games of 2025, Nashville didn’t give much reason to believe in them. Moreover, I don’t think anyone would have any reason to talk about them, never mind talk them up, if it weren’t for their cool as you like Week 4 win over the then-unbeaten Philadelphia Union. Three straight wins never looks bad, obviously, but beating Montreal doesn’t impresses anyone (their “loose slots” vibe sent Laurent Courtois to the unemployment line) and trust me when I say Portland is going through some shit - or was it the time (c'mon, lemme have it). Watching far too much of that Montreal game didn’t give me much you haven’t heard before – e.g., losing Walker Zimmerman in the area is bad, Nashville’s a strong defensive team, etc. – but the main takeaway there was Sam Surridge continuing a strong run of minutes that started with wreaking havoc against the Union. If Nashville can get the assist he teed up against Montreal and the goal he scored at Philly once even one-third as often, they’ll be better; Surridge becoming a reliable foil for Hany Mukhtar and Ahmed Qasem could take them all the way to competitive. The only other thing that jumped out over the 35+ minutes of that first half at Philly was how well Nashville handled one of MLS's better presses. They looked comfortable on the ball, both individually and as a team, and even pushed back after going up. The defense looked strong in both games (and versus Portland), but Zimmerman looking whole and imposing at the back tasks FC Cincinnati with battling the soccer equivalent of an ogre.

Colorado Rapids 0-3 Portland Timbers: Comfortable in Commerce City

When you feel confident, you can do anything...

Think I mentioned this on Bluesky, but some dude on subreddit (who heard it from a friend of a friend’s co-worker, who heard it from her boss) floated the argument that the Portland Timbers were better than they earned after four games. Between Kamal Miller’s (stupid fucking) red card in Game 1 and the ref getting drunkenly novel with the concept of “advantage” in Game 4, they'd tripped themselves more than they'd been tripped, basically.

Did Timbers fans just get proof of concept with yesterday’s subtly lopsided 3-0 win at the Colorado Rapids, or…

About the Game
As happens more often than I’d like to admit, the Scouting Report I posted on…think it was Friday, but who cares because it went out the window within the first 20 minutes. The Colorado Rapids played like a constipated shadow of the team I’d watched from afar and the Portland Timbers looked – and, to be clear, this feels like a typo as I’m tapping it out…capable. We didn’t get seamless perfection by any means – see Jimer Fory at a dead sprint toward his own goal to corral an eighth-minute breakaway by Kevin Cabral (hold that thought*) and Finn Surman eating the entire fake Djordje Mihailovic baited him with at the edge of the fucking six – but the one, literally massive thing that stood out was how immediately calm and connected the Timbers looked playing out of the back. David Ayala offering himself as a first option and seeming to have a plan for his first pass went a long damn way with that; whether turning out of the pressure, dropping the ball to someone behind, who then played it forward to either Ayala or another option (Santiago Moreno, often as not), Portland had fewer problems playing out of back than they have so far in this young season. The defensive shape held up pretty well too, if with an assist from whatever the hell was going on with Rapids; I saw no evidence of the movement and connectivity I’d come to expect after watching 90 minutes of them for the Scouting Report. The Timbers looked, for lack of a better word, comfortable for the first time in 2025 – even when Colorado upped the pressure. The Rapids found a couple chances, here and there, mostly through Reggie “Grumpy” Cannon firing unchecked crosses from the right, but a state of disconnection plagued them through most of the game. With the game knotted on zeroes and the ref puckering up for the halftime whistle, the breakthrough finally came. After trying to play through the brick the Rapids dropped in front of their goal, someone hopefully played the ball wide to David Da Costa. When he kicked the ball back into the mixer, just as hopefully, it caught Josh Atencio’s ankle and bobbled into the Rapids’ goal. And thank gods for that, because, per the official statisticians (aka, the broadcast team) zero shots had been fired on goal, in anger or otherwise, to that point. That first goal opened the game, as goals by the road team often do, and the Rapids lost little time in making a second and worse mistake to allow Portland's second. For whatever reason, three defenders lumped around Felipe Mora like he was [Insert Global Star Name] and their left-sided defender drifting to cover Eric Miller (just…why, and hold that thought%) and that left Antony footloose and fancy-free up the middle of the field and, I assume, a little baffled at his good fortune before slotting home the insurance goal that the Timbers ultimately did not need. That goal arrived just prior to the 50th minute, but it effectively ended the game as a contest. With a nod to the final xG in the official stats – just to note/celebrate it, the Timbers broke the elusive 1.0 xG barrier for the first time in 2025 yesterday - Colorado’s stats aren’t wildly off the Timbers’. And yet the question of which was the better team isn’t so much as half open. The question is why?