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| I've tried everything. This xG is just too small. |
1) the Timbers aren’t going to win the Supporters’ Shield;
2) the first team isn’t trophy-competitive and I don’t see anything on the current roster or in Phil Neville’s brain changing that; and
3) things aren’t actually going well at the moment.
If any here bearing witness object to #1, speak now or forever hold your piece and what drug does it take to produce hope on that scale? Even half-serious pushback on #2 would surprise me, but crazier things and so on. Which leaves #3…
Toronto FC 0-3 Portland Timbers
About the Game
A fucking disaster. A loss for the memory-hole. Something that – and this is with a nod to #3 – I still don't believe could have happened. Again, that's "could" not "should."
I braced for an off-day, I got soccer’s version of ennui. The Timbers went down early after an eager-puppy foul by Omir Fernandez led to a free kick for Toronto at the top. The gifts continued to flow when James Pantemis decided to become Second Wall, aka, the wall behind the wall, instead of covering the other half of the goal. Nothing of note improved from there for Portland. They ended the game with just four (fucking) shots, none on goal, and xG so small it couldn’t be seen by the naked eye.
For whatever reason, possibly because I finally ran out of words, I’m going to forego the typical blow-by-blow match reports. If you want to know, ask me about it in the comments or on Bluesky and I’ll flesh it out, but the short version amounts to the idea that they provide a snapshot of limited value. Relive them through the highlights if you gotta, also why? Ahem. Wrapping up the game.
The game slipped away little by little, overall. The little shivers of hope that bubbled up at the start of the second half – Kevin Kelsy made my notes to doing a little extra to get things going – fizzled out in the half second it took the ball to bounce to Tyrese Spicer at the perfect height for him to go kung-fu on that round fucker. If you want a solid take on the state of the defending on that goal, look no further than Juan David Mosquera looking around frantically after the goal. The game ended at the 56th minute, basically. Toronto’s third felt like the universe telling anyone who went down the “maybe it wasn’t that bad” road to turn around, go home, and cope with reality.
What went wrong? First and foremost, the Timbers struggled to get a second pass out of midfield. David Ayala – who, as I see it, had a crap game – could receive the ball, but never found a way to turn and face up field, he never made an adjustment, Phil never sent reinforcements, etc. Stuffed into their own end by a Toronto press that should have had to work harder, Portland grasped for the attacking third more than usual and with less success. The team missed Antony through injury and Santiago Moreno for the opening 56 minutes/reasons of discipline (more later), but the latter had nothing to notable to add. When a team can’t do jack on the attacking, a couple mistakes are enough.
A quick note on Toronto, they have either improved or the Timbers made them look good. They had some big/familiar names missing – e.g., Fernando Bernardeschi (leading scorer at four goals and four assists....halfway through the season, but still, in my mind, a repentant overpriced DP), Jonathan Osorio and, sure, Lorenzo Insigne – but they didn’t miss them. Spicer was a handful all night, defense hasn’t been a problem, not really, and, because team defense tackled 80% of the challenge last Saturday, Portland barely bothered it. The setup isn’t all that impressive from there – I love Ola Brynhildsen’s energy, even if it didn’t do much, but I still haven’t seen a flitter’s worth from Theo Corbeanu to get me excited it.
Setting aside whatever case you can make that they’re improving, Toronto isn’t a good team. If you asked Robin Fraser if he thinks he still has work today, I can almost guarantee his answer will include an expletive. That’s the team Portland lost to last weekend. Not good.
In terms of closing this out (still too long), I came up with a concept to (perhaps?) tune up the talking points: listing whatever joys and/or concerns I have about, not just the last game, but anything that makes me think about the Timbers generally. This week will be more big picture than usual. In fact, it will be all big picture.
Joys.
Nah. Not right now.
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| [Place] looks amazing. Better than Portland! |
1) I’m Not Sure Santiago Moreno Wants to Be Here
I feel like he’s giving off sulky vibes, but maybe that’s just me. Once your head’s in that space, it doesn’t take much more than a delayed return to confirm the bias. To be 1,000% clear, I know nothing and, even as I accept it can have a massive impact, I know nothing about professional players’ personal lives, by choice, and that will never change. Call it a blind spot I don’t care to check.
2) Anyone else worried about the culture around this team?
Just saying I wonder about it from time to time.
3) I Don’t Know What David Da Costa Is For
Just a statement of fact. I see he’s still the team’s assist leader, but also believe 1) he hasn’t raised that number much since the earlier part of the season and 2) he’s not likely to add to it till Antony returns. Why?
4) The Two Starters and a Non-Starter
The official line contradicts it, but I was told Portland played a 4-4-2 up north and, seeing how rarely I saw Fernandez running with Felipe Mora and Kelsy, I’m inclined to buy the 4-4-2. A fella I respect argued that Saturday’s formation didn’t cause any problems that didn’t already exist, but I do think the formation exacerbated those problems. The problem was most acute on the wings, with no one besides Mosquera looking sure about when to move forward and how; it was like they parked in blocks of four and called it a game plan. I was also told this was in service of getting Mora and Kelsy on the field at the same time. My first thought is, don’t. I can’t remember the last time I like saw, saw Mora in a game and it’s not like Portland’s excels at breaking down compacted defenses. Just the opposite, in fact. Kelsy’s better for stretching the field and better complements an attack that could very well have exactly one move – i.e., competency in transition.
5) Portland’s Last Two Wins/Warning Signs?
At least one person (high five to Bethany Rob) pointedly noted Portland’s slow starts versus Colorado and (in particular) St. Louis, warning how that manifest complacency could, maybe even would, bite the Timbers. Saturday looked like bite marks to me.
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| Like your birthday party. At work. |
1) I Accept the Back Line & Its Warts
I think relying on a Finn Surman, Dario Zuparic, Jimer Fory (effective) back three works as well as anything the Timbers can do. Send Mosquera forward and make sure someone’s around to cover the space behind.
2) I Like David Ayala
He was bad Saturday, he might have been bad against San Jose, don’t entirely recall, but I’d still call him the most consistent and effective player in midfield. Da Costa has to start for a couple reasons – i.e., the investment, but also letting him find his spot – but things feel unsettled from there. Anyone who finds this post already knows the names, but I can’t say who I’d commit to starting at this point. And I’ll be damned if I ask reddit about this shit.
I don’t have much to add after that besides, God speed on the recovery, Antony, and don’t let them rush you back onto the field or, gods forbid, juice you. And this goes back to #1 up above: because Portland’s not winning the Shield, the number one priority should be building the best possible, healthiest possible team and making sure it makes the playoffs and, ideally, hits them at maximum velocity. Now, let’s talk about the nearest obstacle to that mission.
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| Chow. Da. MF. |
6-6-6, 24 pts., 24 gf, 21 ga (+3); home 2-3-1, away 4-2-4
Last 10 Results: WWDDDDWLLD (3-2-5)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ CLT (1-0 W); @ TFC (2-0 W); @ ORL (3-3 D); v SJ (0-0 D); @ SKC (3-3 D); @ DC (1-1 D); @ MTL (3-0 W); v CIN (0-1 L); v NSH (2-3 L); v COL (3-3 D)
Portland hosts New England the day after America Day (i.e., Portland plays Saturday, July 5th) and, despite knowing the Revs well enough, I wouldn’t feel comfortable calling either team a favorite. New England’s spring bloom faded by the first week of May – their only win since was just punching points out of Montreal – but, per the results on either side of that above, they spent the rest of the month tangling opponents in draws, whether that meant running up the score (against some good teams) or keeping a lid on things. Timbers fans should also know the Revs have picked up their scoring since the start of the season. That Carles Gil (seven goals, six assists) remains their catalyst goes without saying, so focusing on the rest of the team feels like a good idea.
The defense, generally led by Mamadou Fofana and backstopped by Aljaz Ivacic (hey, you know that guy!) holds up well enough, but I don’t give Portland a great chance of testing it without getting around and otherwise managing the Revs’ midfield duo of Matt Polster and Alhassan Yusuf. A No. 8 with a No. 6’s mentality, Polster can break up a play and turn it into offense in the blink of an eye and Yusuf runs around with abandon. I don’t think the game will necessarily turn on what happens in midfield, but losing it outright would probably kill the Timbers.
I expect a lot of the fighting to play out in the wide spaces and seeing who the Revs start as fullbacks/wingbacks between Peyton Miller, Ilay Feingold, Brandon Bye and Brayan Ceballos doesn’t change that calculus a ton. Feingold could very well be the best Revolution player you’ve never heard of and Miller the fastest (and just as good) and I have actually seen those two have a little tea party with one another despite playing on opposite sides of the field. I’ve seen Caleb Porter get good results out of isolating his wide players against opposing defenders, so expect the duels to be real and main question to be which team can force them to happen and where.
Finally, and for all the improvement their attack has shown, no New England forward has stayed healthy enough to claim the regular starters’ role, never mind rack up big numbers. That said, Leo Campana will give them a big mobile forward with good technical skills if he starts, while Tomas Chancalay presents as one of those players who can find a good shot from range with a leading pass, and who can also fall off to help with the buildup.
The players noted in the past two paragraphs should give the Timbers plenty to handle, no matter who starts. I’d call starting from first principals the best thing Portland can commit to in response – i.e., whatever each player does out there, do it hard, win the one-v-ones, and focus on hitting every mark. A broad failure to execute strikes me as the biggest issue with the Timbers lately, so maybe start with that and build from there. Not least because, despite the issues noted above, this one’s winnable.
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