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| Minnesota, in human form, at home. |
Portland Timbers 1-1 Minnesota United FC
About the Game, Still More Briefly
Nothing of note happened in the first half, thus endeth that portion of the post.
Overall, though, pretty goddamn dull, in part due to Minnesota’s soul-sucking approach to the game and in part due to the Timbers looking…familiar in all the wrong ways. Against that, I’m glad I re-watched the second half (I was entertaining through the first viewing, or was I merely hosting, because was I all that entertaining?) because, even as the result felt insufficient (in the biggest picture), Portland put on a better show than I remembered.
Both teams posted better final numbers than I would have guessed after sitting through it (1.5 times). Still, Minnesota put the Timbers in the uncomfortable position of using the ball and the discomfort showed. Nodding back to expectations, the Loons scored on a set piece – a reported specialty for them, despite all the headers over the crossbar (for both teams, really) – with Anthony Markanich adding to his unexpected haul for 2025. Between there and the final whistle, Minnesota either slipped up by allowing Juan David Mosquera time and space in the right channel – either that, or they got cocky and thought they could manage it – and they got within mere minutes of getting away with it. Mosquera snapped back with, 1) one of his best attacking performances of the season, 2) a shot off the crossbar that put-near broke it (certainly somewhere in here), and 3) an assist on Omir Fernandez’s tidy equalizer. Couldn’t feel happier Fernandez, that scrappy little scamp.
Out of context, I’d call this result respectable. Minnesota’s a brick shithouse of a team, they’re a ways higher in the Western Conference standings, if not as high as they would have been if they’d held on, and seeing Portland push to the end felt good. The fact the Timbers pulled it off with a gently rotated starting XI made it feel a little better. Add context back into the mix – i.e., the run of results over the past five, ten games, the reasonable argument that good, competitive teams beat good, competitive teams at home – and things feel a little worse.
That wraps up the match report. Everything else that follows come from a combination of random thoughts that popped into my head as I watched the game (or, here, just the second half) and some things percolating at the back of my mind as I turned on the game and turned off the world. As a policy, I will be including notes on the opposition in the 10 Thoughts; the number that get in the mix will turn on how much anything Portland did (or, on a different channel, FC Cincinnati) felt noteworthy. For tonight’s post, though, I’m going to start with the thoughts that bubbled up like so much gas as I hit “play” on the video.
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| Oh, God. The rumble-tummies... |
1) Can the Timbers Be Dragged Out of the Playoffs?
I have this feeling, that somehow sinks and grows at the same time, that we’re dealing with an affirmative, repeat, this feels like an affirmative. On the “sinking” side, I’ve held the general belief that, between opposition and timing, have blessed the Timbers with a softer schedule. For all the credit they've earned for picking up points through that, wondering how much that dried up feels justified. Portland’s last three losses – i.e., the helpless result at Toronto, the “say what now?” loss at St. Louis and dropping all three at home versus RSL (I have no notes, literally) – strike me as at least four points blown. And weighing expectations for the rest of Portland’s regular season (see below) with…those in the back of your mind tips the scales in the wrong direction. For the record, the end run:
@ LAFC, @ FCD, v CIN, @ SD, v MIN, v RBNY, @ HOU, @ VAN, v FCD, @ SEA, v SD
Thank gods for the Texas teams, because that’s a gauntlet, people. Hold that thought. That’s two games in Texas…
2) Who Can Do the Dragging?
The Timbers do have a four-point cushion – far from nothing in a Western Conference wild enough to flirt with erratic – and a game in hand here and there (though not against Austin, who has a game in hand on the Timbers). I’m not worried about all the teams below them, but here’s the list of teams that make up the pack actually able (by my...now shakier count) to drag the Timbers from their 6th-place/34-point perch:
Austin FC (22 games; 30 points, 8th)
Real Salt Lake (23 games, 28 points, 10th)
Houston Dynamo FC (maybe…24 games, 27 points, 11th)
For reference, the above pulled Colorado (24 games, 30 points, 7th) and San Jose (24 games, 29 points, 9th) and, for what it’s worth, this little exercise made me feel a little more hopeful about the Timbers making the playoffs. How well will they do when they get there? Totally separate question…
2a) I Don’t See the Timbers Catching Any Team Above Them
And even that only happens if the team in question falls faster.
3) Both Impressed and Bored by Minnesota
The Loons struck me as a thoroughly competent team that’s risk-averse to the point of self-sabotage. Things can’t be that bad, of course, not with them in a hard-chasing third-place and with big-picture numbers (i.e., goals scored, goals allowed) perfectly balanced on the right side of average (i.e., they’re seven goals above average in goals scored, six below the average for goals allowed). Oh, and with all of that going for them, Minnesota played to waste time inside the first 10 minutes of the game. They play against the ball (yeah, yeah, so does Portland) and they do it well…also, why do they do that, because...
4) Actual Escape Artists
Minnesota plays out of pressure not just well, but smoothly. Turnovers flip to transition all the time – some teams live or die by it (AHEM!) – but Minnesota does it with more careful passing, particularly when they turn the ball over in their defensive third. The passing numbers argue the point (just 80.1%; stay with me here), but the Loons did a far better job of finding a good next pass, and in all directions, than the Timbers did. Maybe that’s because…
5) I Don’t Understand Portland’s Movement in Possession
Moreover, it’s been a while and to the point where we may need counseling.
I’ve taken to watch how opposing teams move when they play Portland just to see what they’re doing differently. Can’t recommend this enough because, once you watch the way other teams move players toward and away from the player on the ball, you won’t be able to unsee the way Portland’s foremost attacking players hold the “near-middle-far” pattern – i.e., one guy runs to the near post, one runs centrally, one to the far post - and shift it back and forth as the ball shifts around the parameter. It’s a lot of waiting for something to happen, instead of working to make it happen. Related...
6) Santiago Moreno’s Best Possible Self
Because I’m not sure what it looks like, I can’t say how far high it could lift Portland’s attack. I bring this up after watching Moreno make some strong unsettling dribbles through Minnesota’s midfield. That most of those runs ran into bristling heart of the Loons defense sits on the other side of the equation. I don’t know what to make of all that beyond thinking he doesn’t look much worse in that role than David Da Costa and might be better.
7) Good Role for Zup
I don’t know if I’ve missed Dario Zuparic running out of defense to challenge an open-field inlet pass, but see that as a good choice. Finn Surman’s better suited to covering the space behind, so, yeah, send Zup forward. But, for the love of God, don’t push anyone forward if it's just Zup and Kamal Miller back there…
8) Have We Found Our Super-Sub?
This came to me after seeing Diego Chara run down Tani Oluwaseyi over 60+ yards in the wide-open filed, 1-v-1, in the 87th minute. Chara’s still surprisingly quick and it looks like he can hold that up for 30-35 minutes – and pretty goddamn well. Why not make this a thing and get the youngsters going?
9) How Long a Leash?
I’m posing this generally and in every way you can think of: how long do the Timbers give Kevin Kelsy to develop in the event he doesn’t score more than, say, eight goals a season?
10) Closing on a Darker Note
To the extent you believe they have a style of play worth noting, do you believe the Timbers have the ability to impose that on any team in Western Conference? If so, how many of them? How many in MLS as a whole?
The longer the season goes on, the harder it gets to see the vision. I’m open to it, but…
I have this feeling, that somehow sinks and grows at the same time, that we’re dealing with an affirmative, repeat, this feels like an affirmative. On the “sinking” side, I’ve held the general belief that, between opposition and timing, have blessed the Timbers with a softer schedule. For all the credit they've earned for picking up points through that, wondering how much that dried up feels justified. Portland’s last three losses – i.e., the helpless result at Toronto, the “say what now?” loss at St. Louis and dropping all three at home versus RSL (I have no notes, literally) – strike me as at least four points blown. And weighing expectations for the rest of Portland’s regular season (see below) with…those in the back of your mind tips the scales in the wrong direction. For the record, the end run:
@ LAFC, @ FCD, v CIN, @ SD, v MIN, v RBNY, @ HOU, @ VAN, v FCD, @ SEA, v SD
Thank gods for the Texas teams, because that’s a gauntlet, people. Hold that thought. That’s two games in Texas…
2) Who Can Do the Dragging?
The Timbers do have a four-point cushion – far from nothing in a Western Conference wild enough to flirt with erratic – and a game in hand here and there (though not against Austin, who has a game in hand on the Timbers). I’m not worried about all the teams below them, but here’s the list of teams that make up the pack actually able (by my...now shakier count) to drag the Timbers from their 6th-place/34-point perch:
Austin FC (22 games; 30 points, 8th)
Real Salt Lake (23 games, 28 points, 10th)
Houston Dynamo FC (maybe…24 games, 27 points, 11th)
For reference, the above pulled Colorado (24 games, 30 points, 7th) and San Jose (24 games, 29 points, 9th) and, for what it’s worth, this little exercise made me feel a little more hopeful about the Timbers making the playoffs. How well will they do when they get there? Totally separate question…
2a) I Don’t See the Timbers Catching Any Team Above Them
And even that only happens if the team in question falls faster.
3) Both Impressed and Bored by Minnesota
The Loons struck me as a thoroughly competent team that’s risk-averse to the point of self-sabotage. Things can’t be that bad, of course, not with them in a hard-chasing third-place and with big-picture numbers (i.e., goals scored, goals allowed) perfectly balanced on the right side of average (i.e., they’re seven goals above average in goals scored, six below the average for goals allowed). Oh, and with all of that going for them, Minnesota played to waste time inside the first 10 minutes of the game. They play against the ball (yeah, yeah, so does Portland) and they do it well…also, why do they do that, because...
4) Actual Escape Artists
Minnesota plays out of pressure not just well, but smoothly. Turnovers flip to transition all the time – some teams live or die by it (AHEM!) – but Minnesota does it with more careful passing, particularly when they turn the ball over in their defensive third. The passing numbers argue the point (just 80.1%; stay with me here), but the Loons did a far better job of finding a good next pass, and in all directions, than the Timbers did. Maybe that’s because…
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| Hat-tip to Phred of Pteranodon Pterrace |
Moreover, it’s been a while and to the point where we may need counseling.
I’ve taken to watch how opposing teams move when they play Portland just to see what they’re doing differently. Can’t recommend this enough because, once you watch the way other teams move players toward and away from the player on the ball, you won’t be able to unsee the way Portland’s foremost attacking players hold the “near-middle-far” pattern – i.e., one guy runs to the near post, one runs centrally, one to the far post - and shift it back and forth as the ball shifts around the parameter. It’s a lot of waiting for something to happen, instead of working to make it happen. Related...
6) Santiago Moreno’s Best Possible Self
Because I’m not sure what it looks like, I can’t say how far high it could lift Portland’s attack. I bring this up after watching Moreno make some strong unsettling dribbles through Minnesota’s midfield. That most of those runs ran into bristling heart of the Loons defense sits on the other side of the equation. I don’t know what to make of all that beyond thinking he doesn’t look much worse in that role than David Da Costa and might be better.
7) Good Role for Zup
I don’t know if I’ve missed Dario Zuparic running out of defense to challenge an open-field inlet pass, but see that as a good choice. Finn Surman’s better suited to covering the space behind, so, yeah, send Zup forward. But, for the love of God, don’t push anyone forward if it's just Zup and Kamal Miller back there…
8) Have We Found Our Super-Sub?
This came to me after seeing Diego Chara run down Tani Oluwaseyi over 60+ yards in the wide-open filed, 1-v-1, in the 87th minute. Chara’s still surprisingly quick and it looks like he can hold that up for 30-35 minutes – and pretty goddamn well. Why not make this a thing and get the youngsters going?
9) How Long a Leash?
I’m posing this generally and in every way you can think of: how long do the Timbers give Kevin Kelsy to develop in the event he doesn’t score more than, say, eight goals a season?
10) Closing on a Darker Note
To the extent you believe they have a style of play worth noting, do you believe the Timbers have the ability to impose that on any team in Western Conference? If so, how many of them? How many in MLS as a whole?
The longer the season goes on, the harder it gets to see the vision. I’m open to it, but…
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