The Portland Timbers, the Playoff Race & Some Soft Motherfucking Schedules

A thing to be avoided. Focus.

A post about FC Cincinnati’s end-run went up yesterday and, while this post will follow the same basic format (see below), the Portland Timbers are playing for different stakes. That doesn’t make the stakes lower, mind you, and goddammit, because the failing to win the Supporters' Shield isn’t so existentially different from, say, getting the results that punch a team’s to hosting playoff games instead of the sporting equivalent of crashing on some other team’s couch. It's just yes/no to a different question.

I’ll get to the question of the Timbers’ chances of hosting down below, but, to flesh out the notes on the format: while I provide a lot of details on each team – e.g., their record over the past 10 games and their remaining schedule, mainly – I’m neither equipped to nor interested in strapping in for much analysis; related, while I acknowledge trades that have happened since the beginning of August, only a handful of the names rang a bell, so I don’t have much to offer beyond their name and (loose) position on the field. The notes I have will focus on past results, players that seem worth noting, and some informed speculation on the games they have left – and they won’t be lengthy or linky (i.e., don’t expect a lot of links).

And, after that historically short preamble (who knew it just took getting older), let’s kick off this post with the sixth-in-the-West…

6th) Portland Timbers
10-9-7, 26 games played; 37 pts., 35 gf, 37 ga (-2); home 6-3-5, away 4-6-2
Last 10 Results: WDLWLLDWLL (3-5-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v STL (2-1 W); v SJ (1-1 D); @ TFC (0-3 L); v NE (2-1 W); @ STL (1-2 L); v RSL (0-1 L); v MIN (1-1 D); @ LAFC (1-0 W); @ FCD (0-2 L); v CIN (2-3 L)
Remaining Schedule: @ SD; @ MIN; v RBNY; @ HOU; @ VAN; v FCD; @ SEA; v SD
Additions: Kristoffer Velde (F); Felipe Carballo (M); Matias Rojas (M)
Losses: Santiago Moreno (M)

To wrap up the new players quickly as you like, I’m excited about Velde (please resolve all of our attacking incoherence, thank you), but withholding judgment on Carballo and Rojas. As noted in the post on Cincy’s slim win over the Timbers, my primary hope is that the new guys settle in quickly and that Portland’s style of play follows suit.

How that project pans out could go a long way to deciding everything from whether Portland qualifies for the playoffs in the top 4, or whether they have to endure another play-in – and I cut off the options there on the grounds that I can’t see a universe where the Timbers miss the playoffs. And, in the event they do, I hereby beg your forgiveness and will crawl all the steps in Providence Park on my knees until the run with blood and my eyes weep. Meanwhile, back in reality…

Strap me in...or nearby. Or not at all.

On a surface level, the past 10 results have fallen short of ideal, maybe even of good. I see the same stupid dropped points you do – e.g., the home games v. San Jose, RSL, Minnesota and, if you’re feeling salty, sure, throw in the Cincy loss – but a thought I had today lifted me out of despair. First, the Timbers defense slips just under average for Western Conference teams (37 goals allowed, versus the 37.6 average). The attack isn’t far off that same average, thusly, so long as the defense maintains that same average standard, an above-average attack should keep the Timbers afloat. And, depending on what happens around them, it could lift them higher. It could.

While I’m open to arguments about it, Portland’s late-season schedule…let’s just say it works against the ideal more than I’d like. The Timbers play high-scoring San Diego FC twice (starting tomorrow!), Minnesota, Vancouver and Seattle away (on a 4-6-2 road record) and, after that it’s two Texas teams (cursed!) and a perennially chaos-inducing Red Bulls team. I believe in this team, I do, but I also see a thicket of strong defensive teams they have to play through to survive, never mind thrive. Ball’s in your court, Phil…

The rest of this post kicks around the competition. As you’ll see immediately below, I confined the sample to the pack between the Vancouver Whitecaps at the top and, with an eye to keeping the line north of San Jose (in both senses), Austin FC at the bottom. To make text of the subtext, if the Timbers stumble into the play-ins or, worse, out of the playoffs entirely, I’m gonna need some time alone with nature. Right, time to look at/judge everyone else, starting with…

3rd) Vancouver Whitecaps FC
13-6-7, 26 games played; 46 pts., 44 gf, 29 ga (+15); home 7-2-3, away 6-4-4
Last Results: LLWLLWDWLD (3-5-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ CLB (1-2 L); v SD (3-5 L); @ LAFC (1-0 W); @ LAG (0-3 L); @ COL (0-3 L); @ HOU (3-0 W); @ SD (1-1 D); v SKC (3-0 W); @ SJ (1-2 L); v HOU (1-1 D)
Remaining Schedule: v STL; v PHI; (v Forge FC, Can); @ SKC; v POR; @ SEA; v SJ; @ ORL; v FCD
Additions: Thomas Muller (M); Joedrick Pupe (D); Sebastian Schonlau (D)

I don’t know the other two guys, but, if Muller can still play at all, the ‘Caps may stop their slide down the Western Conference. They’re also coming off that red-hot start, no question…

I’m pretty sure Vancouver lost a defender (think it’s Ranko Veselnovic), so they’ll want to get Pupe and Schonlau online fast, but they have a reliable backstop in Yohei Takaoka. After Brian White – who’s having another solid season – Vancouver largely scores by committee, a project that’s going well enough by way of assist from Pedro Vite, Sebastian Berhalter (he’s back, right?), Jean-Claude Ngando, and Jayden “Fast AF” Nelson. I haven’t seen this team since early in the season, so I can’t speak to how much they’re relying on the same high-press/turnover formula, but they are holding up despite the slippage…so far.

About half of Vancouver’s remaining games track as soft outs – e.g., hosting St. Louis, San Jose and Dallas and maybe that road game at SKC – something I’d fret harder had I not seen all those dropped points and all those goals allowed between the beginning of July and today. I’m not saying they can’t rally, I’m not saying their best times in 2025 weren’t damn good, but I listed a team nine points above the Timbers for a reason. Portland will need to do its bit to catch them, but the limp looks real.

Where does Portland fit in this spicy thruple?

4th) Seattle Sounders FC
11-7-8, 26 games played; 41 pts., 43 gf, 36 ga (+7); home 7-1-4, away 4-6-4
Last 10 Results: LLWDWDWDWL (4-3-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v MIN (2-3 L); @ VAN (0-3 L); v ATX (2-0 W); v CLB (1-1 D); @ SKC (3-2 W); v COL (3-3 D); v SJ (3-2 W); @ ATL (2-2 D); @ LAG (4-0 W); @ MIN (0-1 L)
Remaining Schedule: v SKC; (@ LAG, LC); v LAG; @ MIA; @ ATX; v VAN; v POR; v RSL; @ NYC

As noted in an earlier post – might have been a scouting report (shit, still rummaging) - Seattle has enjoyed what success they’ve had on the backs of a chorus of the un-to-semi-known. To wit, Danny Musovski is tied with Albert Rusnak for the lead on goals scored (good haul at 10 each; more assists for Rusnak, tho) and a lot of the rest has come from randos like Paul Rothrock and regulars like Cristian Roldan. The Sounders’ 2025 has been about team effort the same way it has for Columbus in the East.

Not much jumps out from the past results beyond Minnesota having their number coming and going. Surviving the Leagues Cup gauntlet to get to (Easy Street?) in the semifinals definitely counts, but the fact all four wins in regular(-ass) league play came against crap-to-middling teams seems noteworthy. While doing better than both the other Cascadia teams, I don’t see a lot of “wow” in their late results…

…which means a lot will (or might) depend on who they play between today and Decision Day. Or maybe where. Seattle hosts a lot and with a few crap (i.e., not currently playoff-eligible) teams in the mix. Portland and Vancouver should make them sweat a little more (just to note it, digging the menage-a-Cascadia), and the road games at NYC and Miami may knock some teeth out, but I see enough padding in Seattle’s games ahead to make the four-point between them and Portland stretch a little wider.

5th) Los Angeles FC
11-6-7, 24 games played; 40 pts., 43 gf, 30 ga (+13); home 8-3-2, away 3-3-5
Last 10 Results: DWLWWWDLDW (5-2-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ MTL (2-2 D); v SKC (3-1 W); v VAN (0-1 L); v COL (3-0 W); v FCD (2-0 W); @ MIN (1-0 W); v LAG (3-3 D); v POR (0-1 L); @ CHI (2-2 D); @ NE (2-0 W)
Remaining Schedule: @ FCD; v SD; @ SJ; @ RSL; v RSL; @ STL; v ATL; v TFC; @ ATX; @ COL
Additions: Ryan Porteus (D); Son Heung-Min (F); Andrew Moran (M)

I’ve seen highlights of Son, some of them in MLS, but that’s all I know about their new guys. How they’ll fit into…let’s call it an evolved LAFC roster should be interesting.

I’ve seen people kick this team around as Denis Bouanga & the LAFC, but they have good balance and some distance from average on both the attacking and defending sides – i.e., details aside, the fundamentals are sound. Between late trends, their overall record and two games in hand, LAFC is very likely ahead of Seattle on points in-hand/in-bush and they should be close enough to a falling Vancouver to overtake them…which they will if the ‘Caps can’t arrest their slide. If my memory is working, Aaron Long just picked up an injury (if not him, some other defender), but the Bounga & the LAFC issue still feels real, even with Mark Delgado on seven (goddamn) assists.

As for going forward, their shaky road record seems notable given the six road games between them and Decision Day. Against that…how does one team get that many soft games, both home and away, to end its season? While LAFC won’t win all of those games, almost everyone of them is theirs to lose. They’re far enough back that I can’t see them winning the West, but pipping them for a spot in the Top 4 will take a good run from someone below them (Luck be a lady toniiigghtt), and a major stagger from them.

Moving on now to the peasants below the Timbers. Who surely count as lower nobility. If only between 2015 and 2020...

I don't know who their GM is, but that's him.

7th) Colorado Rapids
10-11-6, 27 games played; 36 pts., 36 gf, 41 ga (-5); home 7-5-2, away 3-6-4
Last 10 Results: LWDLLWDLWW (4-4-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v ORL (0-1 L); v LAG (2-0 W); @ NE (3-3 D); v SKC (1-2 L); @ LAFC (0-3 L); v VAN (3-0 W); @ SEA (3-3 D); @ PHI (1-3 L); @ MIN (2-1 W); v ATL (3-1 W)
Remaining Schedule: @ LAG; @ SKC; v HOU; @ FCD; v MIN; @ RSL; v LAFC
Additions: Rob Holding (D); Alexis Manyoma (F); Lucas Harrington (D); Rafael Santos (D); Paxten Aaronson (M)
Losses: Djordje Mihailovic

Not many teams smashed the “NOW” button hard as the Rapids during the transfer window, but they had a playmaker to replace and they did – with bonuses tossed in. For what it’s worth, the only guy I know from that bunch is Rafael Santos, but he tracks as a familiar species – i.e., formerly speedy winger converted to a wingback. (To the extent I got that wrong, I apologize, but ask yourself…is he gonna transform the team?) Best of luck to the rest of them...

The raft of reinforcements help, sure, but it took two back-to-back wins – one of them impressive (at Minnesota) - to make Colorado interesting again (to anyone but freaks like me). They haven’t dropped a lot of dumb points and their overall recent form tops both Portland’s and Vancouver’s and, for those not clocking the current state of points, Colorado’s one slim point behind Portland and with a marginally-worse goal differential. And their recent form? Concerning…

That last detail adds a little more squish to their end-run schedule. I see the road games and their not-so-good road record, but most of those are winnable as it gets and who better suited to tolerate that crisp Rocky Mountain air than the Rapids? To anyone looking for solace, their sub-average scoring and subpar defense may hold them back; they don’t go on a lot of streaks, which feels helpful too. Colorado may be getting it together and it is what it is – i.e., Portland will just need to be better – but that schedule feels like another subclause in the list of things the Timbers need to do to get to the 2026 MLS Playoffs.

8th) Austin FC
9-8-8, 25 games played; 35 pts., 24 gf, 29 ga (-5); home 4-2-7, away 5-6-1
Last 10 Results: DLWWLDWWDD (4-2-4)
Strength/Location of Schedule
v RSL (1-1 D); @ SD (0-2 L); @ COL (2-0 W); v RBNY (2-1 W); @ SEA (0-2 L); v NE (0-0 D); @ LAG (2-1 W); @ DC (4-2 W); v HOU (2-2 D); v FCD (1-1 D)
Remaining Schedule: @ MTL; v SJ; @ SKC; @ FCD; @ MIN; v SEA; @ RSL; v STL; v LAFC; @ SJ
Additions: Mateja Djordjevic(D)

I mean, it’s right there isn’t it? Less than one goal per game. Close to it, of course, but still a couple percentages short of one goal per game. Leading goal-scorer, Brandon Vazquez has five goals and no assists and his equally (if not more?) expensive sidekick, Myrto Uzuni, has three goals and two assists. Crazy as it seems, Austin’s two most effective players could very well be Owen Wolff (no more “coach’s son” jabs; respect!) and Osman Bukari (who is finally registering proper winger numbers), but this is a team surviving on defense.

And that’s going…okay. Over half of Austin’s goals have come over their past 10 games (check my math above) and that has helped them to a haul of points that, bluntly, keep them close to Portland. And they really do have some good wins in the above – e.g., at Colorado, versus Red Bull (yeah, yeah, sub-average, but still). A good defense doesn’t always go a long way, but it can get a team somewhere safe. And imagine meeting these stubborn fucks in the playoffs…

For what feels like the third or fourth time…did someone engineer the mid-table Western Conference schedule just to stress me out? Six games against non-playoff teams? To bang a drum I’ll never stop hitting, the shittiest 1-0 win still gives a team three points. File Austin away as something to worry about until further notice.

That covers everyone that seems worth flagging for now. For what it’s worth, I can see Vancouver falling into the scrum with the Timbers and, if I squint hard enough, I can see San Jose’s scoring lifting them into it. Going the other way, I left that out for reasons that go beyond just wanting to wrap this up and go to bed.

Big game for the Timbers on Saturday. My current advice: play like everyone expects you to lose. Fuck it.

We’ll catch up on the other side…