FC Cincinnati 1-0 Orlando City SC: Yes, They Were Dazed, but Hear Me Out...

Arguably, the true margin of victory.

Due to a series of random accidents, I sat through FC Cincinnati’s 1-0 home win over Orlando City SC a day late. Absent a total media blackout going in – which, in light of recent events and anger re, I didn’t even attempt – you can’t help but see the game through the lens of whatever information fell in your lap. It was mostly jokes about Cincinnati owning Orlando – e.g., aka Wikipedia page shenanigans – dazed musing over whether Cincy should perhaps look for a taller target for the 2022 season.

After dipping into the highlights, I clicked over the game stats, which showed an efficient game for Cincy – i.e., a high percentage of their 14 shots on goal – and a stunning 0.3 xG for Orlando. All I could think was, “how the hell was Nick Hagglund more dangerous than the entire Orlando roster?” Again, that's Nick Hagglund.

You know the “but” is coming, but I am not going to shit on this win. I can’t think of one stretch of the game that gave Cincy cause to fret, never mind worry. Orlando had a little more of the ball, but Cincinnati did twice as much with their time; movement off the ball and movement around it tended toward clean and high-percentage, player had little trouble playing out of pressure or playing forward. Cincy’s defensive posture was sharp ‘n’ solid, they played high, but not reckless, closed quickly and did an impressive job of keeping Orlando in front of them...

...but (there it is) Orlando helped a lot with all that. Patient to the point of being idle, too quick to play the ball backward, indecisive in movement and trying to do too much with too few: all that gave Cincinnati’s defense time to organize over and a consistent advantage in the numbers. I saw both of Orlando’s shots on goal and only one gave Roman Celentano a time to shine; their arguable best shot came in a play called back for offside, but Celentano got even that. And that’s how a team ends on an xG of 0.3.

That kept Orlando from winning the game...or doing much of anything, but the general malaise the defense mirrored back to its offense, with like for like clarity (not since Narcissus has a reflection been so fair and true), and that caused them to lose it. Tweets about “that Brenner goal” (or something to that effect) freckled my time-line and those got me dreaming of possibilities...instead I got a tap-in from the rough location of where the generally steady Pedro Gallase’s lap would have been. The kid needed to break his duck, obviously, but wouldn’t it have been nice to see that broken duck come from something Brenner did, as opposed to drifting half-asleep to the right place?

Portland Timbers Preview: Varieties of Desperation

Respectfully noted. For both, ideally.

Like the Old Gray Mare, the Colorado Rapids ‘hain’t what they used to be (‘hain’t what they used to be), but, fun fact, they’re still three points better than the Portland Timbers. If my animal-themed analog for that didn’t mingle horses and glue, I’d use it....wait.

Then again, let us bury the past, and deep as it'll go. To the best of our ability. And then start with some facts:

Colorado Rapids
Record/Basics: 5-6-4, 5-1-2 home, 0-5-2 road; 17 gf, 18 ga, -1
Last 10: LLTWLWLWLT (3-5-2; 0-4-1 road)
Oppo: @ FCD, @ MIN, v CLT, v POR, @ SJ, v LAFC, @ SKC, v SEA, v NSH, @ NYC

What We Know About Them
Broadly, I think of the Rapids as a team that, with a boost from discipline and a collective game-plan (nod to Robin Fraser, who strikes me as just plain good people), plays a step above their talent - or they did last season. Their record notwithstanding, they defend well (barely; see above, league average = 20.8 ga), but they can also move the ball pretty damn smartly; then again, if your attack is built like a spear, only the smith paid more attention to the shaft than the tip...I mean, is that a win? I think of them as the reigning money-ball kings of MLS, honestly. All in all, they’re just as unlikely to beat the Timbers on the road – not with that craptacular road record (wait, what? Microsoft officially recognizes, “craptacular”?), and not, with apologies to Gyasi Zardes, the floppy tip on that spear – but I wouldn’t bet large on the Timbers winning their fourth game of the season. Not unless the other side of the wager makes it interesting. And if Portland falls flat here, Lord knows what I’ll think ahead of the next one against Houston. Fuck me...

Oh, and they’ll mostly be whole. Lalas Abubakar will be out (suspended for serial naughtiness) and I’ve seen chatter about Jack Price as a possible scratch...which wouldn’t hurt. But, again, the collective is greater than whole with this bunch. Expect maybe Michael Barrios...if there’s a more underrated player in MLS history, I can’t name him.

Philadelphia Union 1-1 FC Cincinnati: What Does One Break Out Before the Bubbly?

Or am I getting carried away?

I can think of a dozen ways that FC Cincinnati’s 1-1 road draw at the Philadelphia Union would have left me feeling more relieved than happy - most of which involve Cincinnati scoring first and leaving their fans biting their nails bloody to the end.

The actual game reversed those scenarios, almost exactly. If either team made their fans sweat, it was Philly. And who saw that coming?

The draw boosted Cincy back over the playoff line - wherefore I know not why; what the weird hell is MLS using for tie-breakers this season? – but I got a bigger boost out of, 1) seeing them both manage a game that 90% of neutrals would call tricky-on-paper, and 2) doing it with a juggled line-up. Pat Noonan gave several regular starters – e.g., Luciano Acosta, Junior Moreno, Ian Murphy(?), and Dominique Badji(?) – the afternoon off for reasons I missed and that hardly matter now, but that lone detail raises possibilities and expectations at the same time. That’s so say, holy shit, does FC Cincinnati have actual depth?

Geoff Cameron plugged in for Murphy, Haris Medunjanin for Moreno, Alvaro Barreal for Acosta and Brenner for Badji and that make-shift line-up did more than hold up: it grew into the game. Cincinnati was the better team for fair chunks of it, as well as by most of the numbers, and they had the Union misfiring on passes and movement for 50+ of the game’s 90 minutes. The pessimist in me (trust me; that fucker talks loud) wants to temper my expectations with arguments like, “Pat Noonan knows Philly’s system like the back of his hand”; my wee cowering optimist mutters back, “true, but it’s up to the players to execute, and they did.”

In other words, for all the “there but for the grace of” – e.g., the Union’s fairly-hot Daniel Gazdag missing at least two looks he often sees into the goal or Nick Hagglund dodging a red card for his flying demolition of Kai Wagner’s right(?) leg – Cincinnati has good reason to feel like they could have won this game. For perspective, how many people think “that’s three points” right after hearing “Philadelphia on the road”?

Los Angeles Galaxy 1-1 Portland Timbers: So...What's to Be Done with the Wretch?

A wretch, in one extended universe.

In any other context, you’d pocket the Portland Timbers' 1-1 road draw at the Los Angeles Galaxy with a smile. In the context of a 2022 regular season in desperate need of a great, big goose on the bum, a little...more would have been nice.

I sat through the MLS in 15 to refresh my memory (and because I could; go on, girl, relive 1/6 of the pleasure & pain) and, apart from starting after two of the Galaxy’s early chances (22:41), they confirmed my overall impression of the game: about 90% of it happened between the defenses, a paucity of break-through moments, an afternoon of 20 gentlemen running aimlessly around a big field of green with two more standing in front of their goals, largely biding their time.

Still, Portland had their positives. Yimmi Chara made a cameo as the fastest man on the pitch with his blind-side run straight past LA’s Rayan Raveloson (who very visibly said, “fuck it,” after Yimmi bolted past), which gave Sebastian Blanco an easy diagonal for the assist. A bad touch from Yimmi could have pissed it all away, but he took an atypically soft and smart touch away from Derrick Williams (best player on field, fwiw) and slotted home near-post past Jonathan Bond. That one bright shining moment carried the Timbers to within two minutes (plus stoppage time) of bringing all three points back to Portland, and I’ll get to that, but let’s wrap up the positives.

Both Claudio Bravo and, especially, Josecarlos Van Rankin had solid games, and neither got sent off, so that’s a win. Timbers’ ‘keeper Aljaz Ivacic made a mix of good and lucky saves and generally looked comfortable back there (credit where it’s due, but I’d really like to see him yell more; I expect yelling from my ‘keepers)...and, yep, I just wrapped up the positives.

The Galaxy equalized, cruelly, almost immediately after the you-didn’t-know-you’d-miss-him-till-he’s-gone Felipe Mora made his 2022 season debut. When Dejan Joveljic gained a couple yards inside on Larrys Mabiala and finally placed a ball where Ivacic couldn’t reach and/or sit on it, LA clawed back two points they barely deserved, but anyone with eyes to see it and the stomach to stare disappointment in the face could see the Galaxy piling on those kinds of half-chance passes; neither team impressed with their xG numbers, but the little xG chart on The Mothership’s stats page matches what I remember. All it took was one Timbers defender switching off – i.e., Larrys didn’t seen Joveljic’s run till he was two yards past him – a tale as old as time. Especially for Portland.

Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers Preview: The Things You'll Settle For...

The Portland Timbers return to regular season and the unfashionable precincts of Los Angeles this Saturday afternoon where they’ll face a lately what-the-fuck Los Angeles Galaxy. I’ll flag some particulars shortly, but, first, some facts:

Los Angeles Galaxy
Record/Basics: 7-5-2, , 4-3-0 home; 17 gf, 15 ga, +2
Last 10: WWTWLWLTLW (5-3-2; 3-2-0 home)
Oppo: @ POR, @ LAFC, @ CHI, v NSH, @RSL @ ATX, v FCD, @ MIN, v HOU, v ATX

What We Know About Them
After starting the 2022 season as points-poachin’ 1-0 bandits, the Galaxy spent the whole damn month of May messing with Texas. The results came back mixed - more below – but, until they crumbled like so much apple-smoked bacon at home against Dallas and Houston, the Galaxy ranked among the most disciplined defenses in MLS. The attack, on the other hand, slowed down once the early-season hype-buzz around Chicharito wore off; The Mothership’s staff scribes want it a little too bad, sometimes. You’re not reading about any given Galaxy playing running away with anything because they haven’t – up to and including LA’s latest grasp at a household name, Douglas Acosta.

Notes on Recent Form
The home loss to Dallas ended before it started – and didn’t improve overly – but the Galaxy also coughed up an early goal to Houston, and I’d call scoring early, or at least first, the key to cracking LA's defense, but then they went and had that comeback win over Austin. And yet......the only thing I can see a Galaxy fan loving after this last stretch is Dejan Joveljic, but one wunder-game v Austin by one player does not save a season. The fact that Jonathan Bond bailed their asses all the way out in that draw at Minnesota lends further weight to the argument that LA didn’t do much better than survive May 2022. Despite playing three games at home – at least two against teams lower in the table – the Galaxy collected only three points of nine from a favorable layout. The road win at Austin at the head of the run softened the blow, and the late pile-on at home prettied up the Galaxy’s goal differential, but, on the recent evidence, teams from anywhere but Austin have some reason to think they can punch a point or three out of the Galaxy.

Notes on Past Meetings of 2022
The 1-3 loss in Portland contained a lot of the Timbers’ 2022, honestly: a fullback getting sent off (Pablo Bonilla, who, like nature, finds a way to go where he must), a glorious Bill Tuiloma free-kick, and an unhealthy helping of too little and too late. And, without knowing them like their fans do, it seems to represent the 2022 Galaxy too – i.e., a sort of bland, half-anonymous stability waiting on a something special from two or three players. In this case, a Raheem Edwards cross (he’s their leading assist-man, btw) found Chicharito, who had lost Portland’s defense (so, so easy) and that shipped all three points to Los Angeles.

Philadelphia Union v FC Cincinnati Preview: Go Forward, Move Ahead, etc.

Scoring against Philly, a visual.

As anyone who finds this preview already knows, FC Cincinnati breaks back into the regular season swing with a trip to Chester,PA/the Philadelphia Union. A tall order, certainly, but the odds of Cincy pinching a point have improved in recent weeks. Let’s start with some facts:

Philadelphia Union
Record/Basics: 6-1-7, 3-0-4 home; 19 gf, 10 ga, +9 goal differential
Last 10: WWWLTTTTWT (4-1-5; 2-0-3 home)
Oppo: @ NYC, v CLT, v CLB, @ TOR, v MTL, @ LAFC, v RBNY, v MIA, @ POR, @ NE

What We Know About Them
They don’t lose, especially at home, but they also stopped beating everyone but the (fucking) Portland Timbers (in fucking Portland) after Match Day 7. Because the Union played two tricky games...and Portland on the road, picking out their latest trends gets tricky. That said, I think they possess when they have to (e.g., at home), but generally don’t give a shit about possession “the concept” and exploit in-game dynamics. Philly has fallen off the pace on goals scored of late, even if the opposition explains it away - those last five are tougher than leather - but they are also flaming-rings-of-hell-hard to score against. People have kicked them for the bender of ties they’re on, but, again, see the opposition and make your own call on what to call that share of the points. Related, and unless I miss my guess, your average Philly fan sees home against FC Cincinnati as a must-win.

Notes on Recent Form
First and foremost, not giving up the Snuggles-soft goals the way the Timbers did will carry Cincy halfway to one point. In the results worth noting, they showed well at LAFC despite giving up two soft goals and, had they not got in their own hustling way, they would have taken all three points at home against the Red Bulls; one more soft goal, two more points wafted into the night air like a silent, unclaimed fart. The Union coughed up an eye-catching number of good looks to New England, but it also looked like it didn’t take more than showing a little interest for the Union to get back into the game. Finally, I was too bored to look into the goal-less home-draw at Miami, but the headline doesn’t scream “league elite,” now does it?

MLS Monthly (HA!): 10 Things to Expect Over the Next Five (or Six) Games

Forseeing a minimum of such shenanigans.

Major League Soccer’s regular season restarts this weekend, if under something like a yellow flag with only five games played between today and the regular season’s full, flushed return on June 18. I decided to use this calm before the storm to map out the likelier scenarios before the weekly flash-flood of scores and other data gets me, and everyone else, transfixed by the week-to-week grind.

As I say in all these forward-looking posts, everything below should be read as my expectations for what will happen over the next five (or six) games, as opposed to predictions. Moreover, I chose that five- (or six-) game time-frame very deliberately on the theory that, while anything can happen in any given game, most teams in MLS established a sort of mean over the first 13, 14, or 15 games of the 2022 season (or just 12 in Seattle’s case), and that they’ll revert to that mean, or somewhere around it, over the next five (or six) games. And yet there are questions...

Over the longer-term, players will start coming and going when MLS’s second(?) transfer window opens on July 7. Oddball moves aside – e.g., it looks like Adam Buksa will play his last game for the New England Revolution on June 15 – said arrivals and departures will come after the next five (or six; sorry, I’ll stop doing that) games, but that’s still something file away for the last 15, 16, 18 games of the 2022 season. The Mothership ran a couple articles on trades/transfers – one on players who are varying degrees of likely to go elsewhere during the transfer window (and some are big shit; e.g., Taty Castellanos) and another on players on contracts without active options – to help people organize their theories and wagers on the longer-term futures market.

Second, and more relevant to the next five games – I believe all of what’s below projects to July 14 at the latest, and only to July 10 for a healthy majority of teams – teams have had the past two weeks to examine what’s working, what’s failing, and to adjust accordingly, to get injured players back or closer to it, and so on. We won’t know which teams’ fates will change, or by how much till it happens, but here’s the real point: if just two or three teams deviate from the mean they set over first 14 games of the season, it could upset two to three times as many apple carts. If, say, Atlanta United FC goes on what I’d call an unexpected run (v MIA, @ TFC, @ RBNY, @ NYC, v ATX) or Orlando City SC face-plants through a fairly soft schedule (v HOU, @ CIN, @ NE, v DC, v MIA), that scrambles expectations for not just them, but all the other teams involved.