Remember the days when Portland Timbers fans smothered their
worries about an ever-flagging 2016 season under assurances that, under head coach
Caleb Porter, the team always ends strong? When the results didn’t come,
the received wisdom (elsewhere and here, too) shifted to the idea that Portland
would at least make the playoffs – an idea that most people rightly treated with all the enthusiasm that comes with getting a “Participation
Ribbon.”
Even that final, fatalistic consolatory assumption broke
down, though it’s unclear as to when (each fan probably holds a personal
breaking point in his/her wounded heart). And, so, here we are, facing the
embarrassing possibility of a year without even a fucking participation ribbon
– e.g. no playoffs. And the situation is bleak: for Portland to make the
playoffs, Sporting Kansas City will have to fuck up, the Seattle Sounders will
have to fuck up bad, and Real Salt Lake will have to fuck up real, real bad. And
those are just the teams within reach: neither the Los Angeles Galaxy, FC
Dallas, nor the Colorado Rapids can fuck up badly enough to save Portland. No
paths to glory, in other words, only narrow, overgrown trails to bare
competence.
Let’s start with a team that has already fucked up – aka,
your Portland Timbers. After 32 games played, and with two to go, Portland sits
on 41 points, two points behind SKC and three behind Seattle. As everyone knows
(probably), Portland plays Colorado at home this coming Sunday and closes out
the season on the road against Vancouver. When it comes to figuring how that’ll
pan out, most stats are neither good nor entirely relevant – i.e., a negative
goal differential doesn’t help, it just isolates one problem (shitty defense) –
because the only relevant stat is Portland’s dismal, defining 0-10-6 away
record. They might win at home, and with eye-catching reliability, but that
home/road pattern has held across the past 10 games (it was last broken at home
against LA on July 23, and in the wrong
way). As such, I view it as real. But what’s it mean?
Here, I’ll resist the temptation to get too clever – e.g. to
argue that, say, Portland will draw at home to Colorado, but win on the road
against the ‘Caps (so watch it happen, goddammit). No, the home/road thing seems
endemic enough to count on, so let’s start from there. Whichever way it
breaks, the Colorado game is likely to be close; the
two games this season against Colorado so far have featured just one goal (scored by
Colorado, last meeting), and not a lot of teams have run up the score against
them, so, a 1-0 win seems like a good case, a goal-less draw, among the worst
cases (another 1-0 loss, and I’m out). That said, failing to grab all three
points would be catastrophic from a mental standpoint – e.g. leaving the team
needing a road win, the one thing they haven’t done all year, on the final day
of the season – so, here’s to hoping for a focused Portland team. If the other Western
Conference games break a certain way over the next…five days, Portland could
actually find themselves out of the playoffs before the season’s final weekend.
Of which, fun.
Assuming they get there, then, the ‘Caps are vulnerable, no
question, and make for as decent a road sacrifice as a team could want. Reports
of a Renaissance for their attack don’t really add up: sure, they’ve scored
seven goals in their last five games, but they scored four of those in losing
efforts at home, while giving up five goals combined to Colorado (3) and
Seattle (2). Moreover, Vancouver hasn’t won at home since July 13. They’re
terrible in defense in a way that only Portland can appreciate, besides,
and…just, how? How can Portland have reached this painful point of begging for
scraps from the mouths of beggars? No time for our sorrows (well, plenty of time, actually, and even more if the Timbers choke; all winter, in fact).
All in all, I guess I’m arguing that Portland’s
present ceiling sits at 45 points (for the record, I put that at 49 points not
so long ago, so…). Sure, 47 points are possible, but, skipping over Porter’s
Randian crap about this team getting better when its back’s against the wall,
etc. (the "wall" was there two weeks ago), asking this team for back-to-back
wins, with one game on the road, it just doesn’t fit the pattern. Still, just
to get shits tangling with giggles, let’s game out the rest of the Western
Conference’s season-ending schedules and see where the gaps lie. Or, to return
to a point above, who’s gonna fuck up enough to keep the door open for whatever
Portland can muster?
To organize this project chronologically, Seattle hosts the
Houston Dynamo on Wednesday, while San Jose plays away to Colorado Thursday
night. Based on, oh, everything (7-1-2 over last 10 games, 4-0-0 in their last
four, with both home games and away), Seattle should beat Houston tonight, a
result that would put them on 47 points, with two games still to play, get this,
out of reach for Portland. Why? Seattle needs only one win to hit 14 wins for
the season, and total wins are the first tie-breaker for the post-season,
Portland only has 11 wins right now, which makes 13 wins their ceiling, etc.
Fun detail: SKC has 12 wins to Portland’s 11, so that’s another hole. Regardless, Seattle’s not really relevant to Portland’s situation, at least not barring
a total disaster of losing at home
a to team that’s already dead (Houston; and on a two-game losing streak to boot)
and another that’s, frankly, dying down the stretch (RSL, 0-3-2 in their last
5, with four goals scored, three of them toward the beginning). Seattle also
has a game in Dallas; if they win that, well, holy shit. Just, holy shit.
I’ll pull in San Jose, briefly, but I really do think
they’re fucked. Their win over RSL (in San Jose) on October 1 arguably showed
the sorry state of RSL, because their 10 games prior read 1-4-5, while also
demonstrating that San Jose can only win when they score twice. And, being a
goal-a-game team, they don’t (31 goals scored all season, so). San Jose burned
through their games in hand, but that hardly matters. What does matter is
the high, probably impossible bar of beating Colorado, in Colorado, and with that offense. Given everything, including their next two games (v. Vancouver and @ SKC), putting San Jose’s final haul at
41 points seems generous. Even if they get 43, that’s not enough for the
post-season. As such, they feel safe to write off.
That leaves only Sporting KC and RSL. They play each other,
for starters, and next weekend. TRSL is good at home (8-1-7), but far from dominant. Six of those seven home draws came
within RSL’s last ten home games (they went 3-1-6). More
significantly, their last three homes games rendered a 0-2-1 record, of which,
oof! SKC hardly looks like the team to punish RSL’s domestic struggles, what
with their recent, terrible road record (1-0-6 in their last seven; San Jose spared their blushes), so this game feels even and a whole lot like a draw,
maybe even a scoreless one (also, probably as energetically boring). A draw,
even with goals, would put RSL at 46 points and SKC at 44 points – e.g. on either side of what feels like optimistic placing for Portland. A win
by either team would make this a one-horse race…wait, with RSL already on 45
points…shit. Pulling for RSL in this one, very much. Look, the margin sucks no
matter the angle you look at it. Still…
Even if they trip up one another, the real question is
whether the final weekend for RSL and SKC offer any kind of lifeline to
Portland. For the record, RSL plays Seattle in Seattle, while Sporting hosts
San Jose. Here where things really get ugly. Of both teams in play, RSL seems
the most likely to lose both their final games; SKC should get at least the three
from San Jose. In a sense, then, RSL might be the team / wounded wildebeest
that Portland’s actually chasing. And that’s bad. Because that wildebeest is
nowhere near as shaky as the predator (e.g. Portland) that’s chasing ‘em. So,
no, things aren’t good.
Resisting writing post-mortems…even as they feel so very
natural.
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