MLS Off-Season Weekly: New Year's Day Feelings Check

'Bout to get tripped.

I decided to start the New Year by thinking about the general road(and home)-worthiness of the two teams I follow. To remind people, that’s the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati. Both teams come from very different worlds, obviously. Even if the Timbers’ 2019 ended early, they were just one year removed from an MLS Cup final and they still have a competitive core. FC Cincy, on the other hand, get the functional equivalent of a mulligan on a disastrous-for-the-ages 2019 season. Still, so long as promotion/relegation doesn’t take hold…

…and it never will in the States, so, please, stop kidding yourself. We live in a crony capitalist/lazy rich motherfucker society, something that won’t change until we do.

Politics/society/culture aside (and they’re all to blame, and for everything), what do Portland and Cincinnati need to do in order to be competitive in 2020 - or, to get real jiggy, challenge for any kind of honors? To answer the obvious question – i.e., can FC Cincinnati even do that? – no, probably not, at least not without insane luck twice over in the transfer market – e.g., 1) finding players with the right talents, and 2) convincing them to move to Cincinnati. (Also, don’t get me wrong: Portland’s an easier sell, but it’s not LA, New York, or even Chicago or Seattle.) Still, I’m going to start with what I think Cincinnati needs to do in order to…let’s go with make the playoffs in 2020.

FC Cincinnati, Their Yellow Brick Road
As of the New Year, FC Cincinnati has an exhausting mix of new blood and old baggage. I used the word “exhausting” on the grounds that their big attacking signing – former Philadelphia Union midfielder, Haris Medunjanin – still seems to lack the kinds of players he needs to rack up his quota of assists. In other words, unless Brandon Vazquez comes good to several degrees beyond expectations or Fanendo Adi gets his groove back – and does anyone else wonder if that’s not why Cincinnati hasn’t already sold him for peanuts? – Cincy will need to call in some attacking players. I understand that players like Joseph-Claude Gyau and Kekuta Manneh remain in the mix, and that they’ll probably get similar numbers out of Allan Cruz next season, but, unless you think that Medunjanin’s passing alone will buy Cincinnati 10 more goals in 2020 than they saw in 2019, they need a couple better-than-them signings before First Kick kicks off. I understand they’re looking, but I also know that Cincy’s front office signed yet another defender, Swede Tom Pettersson...

And yet, it’s devilishly hard to identify one player, or even one type of player that FC Cincinnati needs. Could they use a great forward? Yeah, sure, but what team doesn’t need that? If I were them, I’d be looking for a certain type of forward – e.g., if you’re going to hit a lot of diagonals and hit in early crosses, you want one type of forward, but if you’re going to want to spread the field to create seams, you want either Adi, or a new dude who’s less disgruntled to take that same role – and I think that’s where the focus should be when it comes to any attacking player: fitting in with how the team plays. That said, certain signings genuinely warrant making adjustments to the attack, and with an eye to making that one player drive the offense; in those situations, the real question becomes how to make your best player(s) more effective.

To wrap up that thought, yeah, that’s what I’d try if I were FC Cincy’s GM. I’d find a player to serve as a real focal point in the attack – regardless of where that player lines up. An effective winger; a massive center forward; one of those half-mythical No. 10s: if Cincinnati can find a player that adds value and makes Medunjanin more effective, I can see them as a playoff team. To answer the unstated question, yes, I do believe the margin is that thin in MLS.

All the above said, and to go against the grain more than a little, I’d also argue that FC Cincinnati needs either a player, or a combination of players, who can take charge of even one aspect of midfield. With all the players left on the roster – e.g., Fatai Alashe, Leonardo Bertone, Tommy McCabe, Caleb Stanko – it’s just…they need someone that’s stable enough both defensively and territorially to let Medunjanin find the game. If they can find it with the players they have, great. All the same, I’d argue that nothing matters more to keeping FC Cincy from reliving the white-hot Hell of 2019 than getting central midfield sorted out. Finally, for what it’s worth, I’d give either Alashe or (based on what I’ve seen of him) McCabe the best shot at working with Medunjanin. For what it's worth from there, I'd be stunned and impressed if either Alashe or McCabe can bring enough.

I expect Cincinnati will be better in 2020, even if just on the level of their losses looking a little less helpless. That I also think they’re just one massive player and a clarification of one midfield process away from competitive – even if on the low side - is a vote of confidence I hardly expected to make, but there it is. There’s a lot of awful on the low side of the Eastern Conference, and there’s a long, wonky season between today and the 2020 MLS Cup Playoffs. Bottom line: it’s possible that one player and some better planning could bridge the gap between despair and hope in FC Cincy’s 2020.

Moving on, now, to Portland. Who are necessarily more complicated…

Portland Timbers, Their Yellow Brick Road
While I’ve only seen a spotty-beard gif's worth of confirmation on this, I’m going to assume that Yimmi Chara has, in fact, signed with the Portland Timbers. And, incredibly, for all my pessimism about things overall, a player like Chara might be enough to keep the Timbers competitive in 2020. While I’ve checked his stats, I’m not really clear on how they translate; these are leagues I don’t know, I mean, at all, but he’s playing steadily and he’s fringe Colombian national team, so he probably can’t be awful. In practical terms, though, he’ll improve the team so long as he can do what Dairon Asprilla does in not just October, but other months. Whatever you think of Asprilla, that’s a low bar…

…and yet that’s everything. Even if Y. Chara and Dario Zuparic wind up being the Timbers’ only off-season signings, it’s entirely possible they’ve already done enough to be worthwhile, even if they don’t have enough to play for the bigger trophies (e.g., MLS Cup and Supporters’ Shield). That’s been a weird thought for me, and it only clicked into place once I got it in my head that Yimmi Chara plays right wing. He might not – don’t care, doesn’t matter – because, as I see it, the only thing the Timbers need in 2020 is either a player, or a committee of them, to spell Diego Valeri, Diego Chara, and Sebastian Blanco, and that something only has to be better than Asprilla outside any month except October.

To make something perfectly clear, yes, I’d be delighted to see the Portland Timbers sign some promising something between now and First Kick 2020. And, on a more immediate level, holy shit, what would it mean if Jeremy Ebobisse didn’t mend by, say, June 2019? (SUB-QUESTION: why wouldn’t you take Justin Meram and/or Quincy Amarikwa as a free agent (that is, unless the price is fucking exorbitant?)).

My real, brighter point is that I’m relatively bullish on where Portland is right now. All it took was reducing the question to, “is he better than Dairon Asprilla?” to make me feel better. I’m not saying I’m right so much as I’m saying that that’s a decent case for optimism…

…and if Portland signs someone else…well, see it is first, obviously, but I…think what I’m really saying is, I have faith in the spine.

Right. Till Sunday.