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| A tapestry...of cats! (I'm crazy cat people, no judgment) |
Yes, I’m changing the format. Can we just....not do this again, Cassie?
First, and because I think that’s where the demand is, I’m stuffing most of the actual data into the preview section – and, as always, the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati both get “chunky” previews, even if I’ve slimmed them down a bit. Second, I’m accepting defeat and embracing the dread and feeble bullet- point format. What can I say? It just works better than a trying to stitch a long and winding tale out of disparate parts.
And, wrapping up the preamble, because the editorial board has decided I don’t bring enough beef to the reviews, I’m thinning those out to the point of emaciation – and, to be clear, this has nothing to do with laziness (I’m nothing if not a masochist (call me)) or an aversion to reading an epic into a single result. Very much related, what we have now are results – i.e., cold, hard data that knocks down every “but the underlying numbers” and “when [Your Team’s Disappointing DP Here] comes good” you see laced into every match report, very much including the ones I write...
...and yet, as every fan of Major League Soccer knows, all it takes to get to the beginning of beautiful season is a three-game winning streak.
Now, I’m going to note and comment on all the games in MLS Week 10 – i.e., that is give you the result, a link to resources that will tell you more about it, and then add very few words about how much said result made...the Earth...move...under your feet. Finally, I shit you not, I am totally committing to bullet points.
MLS Week 10 Review(...even if there are hella 9s out there, even a couple 8s under “GP” in the table)
Nashville SC 3-1 Atlanta United FC
This one should have put all, or at least most, doubts to bed that Nashville has announced itself in the East, but Atlanta’s still fine, just fine, if without showing any signs of contending.
Columbus Crew SC 1-2 Inter Miami CF
Good for Miami, obviously (and they’re gonna need it; Jean Mota down, repeat, Jean Mota down), but the interesting thing’s what happened to Columbus over their past two games.
DC United 3-0 Charlotte FC
Is that Charlotte I see swirling down the toilet?
New England Revolution 1-1 FC Cincinnati
I wrote extended notes on this over the weekend [see here], but both teams hit the ground running in 2023 and both look like a better bet than most to go places.
Orlando City SC 2-0 Los Angeles Galaxy
The only question was whether Orlando would win, bravo, Orlando.
Toronto FC 1-0 New York City FC
Hey...what’s that behind your ear, Toronto? (NYCFC’s pride.)
Austin FC 2-2 San Jose Earthquakes
Next...
Chicago Fire FC 1-1 Red Bull New York
Next...
Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Club de Foot Montreal
Like driving past road-kill, Jesus Christ...
St. Louis CITY FC 1-2 Portland Timbers
I have extended and very happy notes on this one. I’m less on “St. Louis’ expansion is showing” than I am on “they’ve lost the element of surprise.”
I Don’t Care About Any of These; the lack of goals did not help
Real Salt Lake 0-0 Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps 0-0 Colorado Rapids
Minnesota United FC 0-0 FC Dallas
My lack of concern, notwithstanding, I could probably figure out something interesting to say about all six of those teams, stuff that goes beyond, “good,” “bad” and “Minnesota.” But, like someone who really wants to lose his audience, I’ve stuffed all the details into the preview section of this post.
Careful observers, or just the patient few who tune into this channel, will notice that I’ve put the rawest data back in down below – e.g., each team’s record, their goal differential, total goals scored and allowed, and, new in this edition, each team’s home and away record. It might look tedious to do that, but I find the repetition of updating that stuff and looking at it – really looking at it – to be the clearest path to getting the meat of what’s going on, and not unlike working on my calligraphy. With that, let’s talk about what’s really happening around MLS and look ahead to MLS Week 11. And, again, Portland and Cincinnati get chunkier notes because they’re my boys.
Charlotte FC v New York City FC
Charlotte: 2-5-3, 9 pts. (1-2-2 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 19 ga (-9); Last 6: TTLTWL
Strength of Schedule: Think of it as a Goldilocks schedule, where a good team would have done, say, better than Charlotte.
NYC: 4-3-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 12 gf, 11 ga (+1); Last 6: LTTWWL
Strength of Schedule: The hype train got rolling on these guys – which is precisely why I like having raw data to keep my eyes on the horizon. That doesn’t erase their solid, late home wins so much as contextualize them.
Reading this as either a chance for NYC to score its first road win, or a game that will confirm they are a terrible road team. And I still think most people see Charlotte as more opportunity than threat, and for good reason.
First, and because I think that’s where the demand is, I’m stuffing most of the actual data into the preview section – and, as always, the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati both get “chunky” previews, even if I’ve slimmed them down a bit. Second, I’m accepting defeat and embracing the dread and feeble bullet- point format. What can I say? It just works better than a trying to stitch a long and winding tale out of disparate parts.
And, wrapping up the preamble, because the editorial board has decided I don’t bring enough beef to the reviews, I’m thinning those out to the point of emaciation – and, to be clear, this has nothing to do with laziness (I’m nothing if not a masochist (call me)) or an aversion to reading an epic into a single result. Very much related, what we have now are results – i.e., cold, hard data that knocks down every “but the underlying numbers” and “when [Your Team’s Disappointing DP Here] comes good” you see laced into every match report, very much including the ones I write...
...and yet, as every fan of Major League Soccer knows, all it takes to get to the beginning of beautiful season is a three-game winning streak.
Now, I’m going to note and comment on all the games in MLS Week 10 – i.e., that is give you the result, a link to resources that will tell you more about it, and then add very few words about how much said result made...the Earth...move...under your feet. Finally, I shit you not, I am totally committing to bullet points.
MLS Week 10 Review(...even if there are hella 9s out there, even a couple 8s under “GP” in the table)
Nashville SC 3-1 Atlanta United FC
This one should have put all, or at least most, doubts to bed that Nashville has announced itself in the East, but Atlanta’s still fine, just fine, if without showing any signs of contending.
Columbus Crew SC 1-2 Inter Miami CF
Good for Miami, obviously (and they’re gonna need it; Jean Mota down, repeat, Jean Mota down), but the interesting thing’s what happened to Columbus over their past two games.
DC United 3-0 Charlotte FC
Is that Charlotte I see swirling down the toilet?
New England Revolution 1-1 FC Cincinnati
I wrote extended notes on this over the weekend [see here], but both teams hit the ground running in 2023 and both look like a better bet than most to go places.
Orlando City SC 2-0 Los Angeles Galaxy
The only question was whether Orlando would win, bravo, Orlando.
Toronto FC 1-0 New York City FC
Hey...what’s that behind your ear, Toronto? (NYCFC’s pride.)
Austin FC 2-2 San Jose Earthquakes
Next...
Chicago Fire FC 1-1 Red Bull New York
Next...
Sporting Kansas City 0-2 Club de Foot Montreal
Like driving past road-kill, Jesus Christ...
St. Louis CITY FC 1-2 Portland Timbers
I have extended and very happy notes on this one. I’m less on “St. Louis’ expansion is showing” than I am on “they’ve lost the element of surprise.”
I Don’t Care About Any of These; the lack of goals did not help
Real Salt Lake 0-0 Seattle Sounders
Vancouver Whitecaps 0-0 Colorado Rapids
Minnesota United FC 0-0 FC Dallas
My lack of concern, notwithstanding, I could probably figure out something interesting to say about all six of those teams, stuff that goes beyond, “good,” “bad” and “Minnesota.” But, like someone who really wants to lose his audience, I’ve stuffed all the details into the preview section of this post.
Careful observers, or just the patient few who tune into this channel, will notice that I’ve put the rawest data back in down below – e.g., each team’s record, their goal differential, total goals scored and allowed, and, new in this edition, each team’s home and away record. It might look tedious to do that, but I find the repetition of updating that stuff and looking at it – really looking at it – to be the clearest path to getting the meat of what’s going on, and not unlike working on my calligraphy. With that, let’s talk about what’s really happening around MLS and look ahead to MLS Week 11. And, again, Portland and Cincinnati get chunkier notes because they’re my boys.
Charlotte FC v New York City FC
Charlotte: 2-5-3, 9 pts. (1-2-2 H; 1-3-1 A), 10 gf, 19 ga (-9); Last 6: TTLTWL
Strength of Schedule: Think of it as a Goldilocks schedule, where a good team would have done, say, better than Charlotte.
NYC: 4-3-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 12 gf, 11 ga (+1); Last 6: LTTWWL
Strength of Schedule: The hype train got rolling on these guys – which is precisely why I like having raw data to keep my eyes on the horizon. That doesn’t erase their solid, late home wins so much as contextualize them.
Reading this as either a chance for NYC to score its first road win, or a game that will confirm they are a terrible road team. And I still think most people see Charlotte as more opportunity than threat, and for good reason.
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| I also want action. |
FC Cincinnati v DC United
Cincinnati: 6-1-3, 21 pts. (5-0-0 H; 1-1-3 A), 13 gf, 11 ga (+2); Last 6: WWWLWT
Strength of Schedule: Nothing to soft, which makes that good run look a little better...just don’t say “St. Louis” in the mirror any time soon.
DC: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (2-2-1 H; 2-2-1 A), 14 gf, 13 ga (+1); Last 6: LTLWWW
Strength of Schedule: All Eastern Conference, equal balance between home and away; and they’ve been making their own luck lately (wins @ MTL and @ ORL in two of last three)
I sat through 50 minutes of DC’s win over Charlotte, but the whole thing felt like a bum steer: Charlotte barely got into DC’s half, I think I saw their one shot on goal, but can’t remember it, etc. DC dominated Charlotte in a way they simply can’t do – yeah, I said “can’t” – against Cincinnati. All the same, I see that road record, I respect the damage they did to Orlando’s rep and numbers in one of those wins, so, no, I don’t see DC as a team Cincinnati should take lightly.
For what it’s worth, the lineup they started against Charlotte would match up pretty well with Cincy’s usual. Even if, as always, I give the edge to Obinna Nwobodo and Jesus Moreno (or even the depth behind them), DC has a decent bruiser in Russell Canouse and a pair of solid two-way guys in Mateusz Klich (who hasn’t looked DP-worthy yet) and Lewis O’Brien, who I think, 1) is new, and 2) he looked decently rangy and effective against Charlotte (but, again, Charlotte). As much as I trust Cincy’s center to hold, I see a potential overload in midfield, particularly on DC right/Cincy’s left, where Pedro Santos, O’Brien and Taxi Fountas should have a fair chance of getting around and through Raymon Gaddis and Nick Hagglund, and that’s with Christian Benteke, a legitimate, long-limbed handful, running at the back post. Sadly the situation doesn’t look so different on the other side between Klich, Andy Najar (who fucked Charlotte up pretty good), and Benteke. DC’s looked both pretty and literally balanced when I watched them. And that’s probably where Cincy has an advantage...
It’s entirely possible I’m taking the official line-up too seriously, but it looked like an accurate depiction of what I saw – i.e., Canouse chews up the middle and gets forward, but he’s hardly some creative force – and I think that opens useful space for Cincy to operate centrally and in the channels, and even that with an eye to opening up space on the wings – i.e., a little inside and out to open up the through. That’s less about disrespecting what I saw from O’Brien and Klich (though, again, Charlotte), but Cincy should pay attention to which one of them goes forward into the attack and look to transition into the space behind them from the starting whistle to the one that kills it. Let’s see some diagonals out there, fellas.
All in all, I believe Cincy has the defense to manage DC’s attack– based on what I saw, they excel at getting the ball into the attacking third, it’s what comes after that holds ‘em back – and enough ways to pull them apart and otherwise hurt them in the other direction, that I’m calling this a must-win in the sense that, these should be three gettable points.
Inter Miami CF v Atlanta United FC
Miami: 3-6-0, 9 pts. (2-2-0 H; 1-4-0 A), 8 gf, 10 ga (-2); Last 6: LLLLLW
Strength of Schedule: Nothing completely egregious, but a good team wouldn’t have waited until last week at Columbus’ place to win for the first time in seven weeks.
Atlanta: 5-2-3, 18 pts. (4-0-1 H; 1-2-2 A), 19 gf, 16 ga (+3); Last 6: LWTTWL
Strength of Schedule: Four road games, some tough opponents, but also Toronto; somewhat to be expected, but also hinting toward Mid-Table Hell.
Match ups like this are the reason I start calculating the average goals for/against around this time every season – assuming my math’s right (also, don’t), it’s 11.8. Miami has struggled to score – along with everything else – but, Atlanta’s shaky at the back, they’re several games away from their last road win, and Miami finally has Leo Campana, aka, a focal point. And yet I feel like this would have been a better/closer game with Mota involved. Miami may be sitting out 2023.
Club de Football Montreal v. Orlando City SC
Montreal: 3-6-0, 9 pts. (2-1-0 H; 1-5-0 A), 7 gf, 17 ga (-10); Last 6: WLLLWW
Strength of Schedule: Winning against teams in crisis appears to be a strength, getting ripped asshole to esophagus against better organized teams, a weakness.
Orlando: 4-3-2, 14 pts. (2-3-1 H; 2-0-1 A), 10 gf, 10 ga (0); Last 6: LWLWLW
Strength of Schedule: Their fans must hate them...two eminently winnable games (v CLT and v DC) end in losses?
On the one hand, Montreal have punched points out of soft/struggling teams (e.g., Philly, RBNY and SKC), they either score or literally don’t (weird detail, but true), and that tees up Orlando as tricky opposition. Unbeaten on the road, reasonably solid defense, good, if labored with possession...low scoring feels like a safer bet than calling who wins.
Red Bull New York v Philadelphia Union
RBNY: 1-3-6, 9 pts. (1-0-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 7 gf, 10 ga (-3); Last 6: TLTTLT
Strength of Schedule: On the one hand, lots of road games; on the other, I count three HIGHLY winnable games in that mix (@ CLT, @ ATL, @ MTL, @ CHI) and just two points out of them.
Philly: 3-4-2, 11 pts. (3-1-1 H; 0-3-1 A), 14 gf, 13 ga (+1); Last 6: LWLWLW
Strength of Schedule: If you came into the season with “Supporters’ Shield” dancing in the wind around you, you should get more than five points out of @ MTL, v ORL, v SKC, @ CIN, @ CHI, v TOR.
Philly took one final blow from Clubber Lan...er, LAFC and I’m not even sure the first act of their 2023 drama has ended. I saw the first signs of real panic among the few Union fans I follow on the twitters, but, if general themes and trends hold, the Red Bulls feeble attack gives them a chance to gamble against their press. Don’t know if Philly will have the legs for that, but if they do...
San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles FC
SJ: 4-3-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 13 gf, 13 ga (0); Last 6: TWTWLT
Strength of Schedule: A mix of mid-table and bad, which sums in San Jose’s neighborhood nicely.
LAFC: 5-0-3, 18 pts. (4-0-0 H; 1-0-3 A), 16 gf, 6 ga (+10); Last 6: TWTWWT
Strength of Schedule: Again, I do this kind of thing so I can see that LAFC has three low-scoring draws on the road on either side of beating the Galaxy “on the road.” All good defensive teams...well, Colorado not so much, but still.
LAFC’s road record is a bit deceptive insofar as they’ve played tough teams (e.g., Seattle and Nashville) and tricky venues (e.g., Colorado) in those games. Between San Jose’s confident home record and the lactic acid still burning in LAFC’s legs from their midweek CCL game, it seems wise to treat this game as a micro event, aka, San Jose’s best shot at getting all three points for LAFC inside one afternoon.
Toronto FC v New England Revolution
TFC: 2-2-6, 12 pts. (2-0-3 H; 0-2-3 A), 13 gf, 13 ga (0); Last 6: TTTTLW
Strength of Schedule: Pretty stiff, really, and they’re drawing most of it – except when they shot their own foot in the loss to Philly – which, btw, was only their 2nd loss of 2023. They should have picked up two more points, due to hosting Charlotte, but they didn’t.
NE: 6-1-3, 18 pts. (4-0-2 H; 2-1-1 A), 16 gf, 9 ga (+7); Last 6: WTWTWT
Strength of Schedule: A fair amount of home-cooking (4 of 6) and three easy games (@ DC, v MTL, v SKC), but they’re stubborn and balanced.
Another intriguing one – not least because the Revs play their next three on the road – but the Revs’ depth impressed me when they played Cincy. Toronto, meanwhile, has been aggressively average all season. A very much, could go either way kind of game, but I’d call a New England win as the thing to watch for, but don’t we all owe Toronto some gratitude for demonstrating how little it takes to stay above the playoff line this season?
FC Dallas v St. Louis CITY FC
Dallas: 4-3-3, 12 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-2-2 A), 12 gf, 11 ga (+1); Last 6: LTWWLT
Strength of Schedule: Pretty rough, decent teams with four on the road – to name three @ LAFC, @NYC, and @ MIN – which makes sense of the slowdown...then again, how much does Dallas ever heat up?
St. Louis: 6-3-1, 19 pts. (3-2-0 H; 3-1-1 A), 22 gf, 12 ga (+10); Last 6: WLLWTL
Strength of Schedule: Put it this way: what I saw from them in the losses to Seattle and Portland, with the draw at Colorado squeezed in, knocked the wheels off the CITY hype-train for me.
Dallas’ defense isn’t what it was last season, but they don’t fuck up a lot – and, based on the...too many times I’ve watch St. Louis play, making teams fuck up is half their game at a minimum. I give Dallas a pretty good chance of keeping them off the board – and that goes double if Klauss is still out – but how much does that matter if Dallas can’t score?
Houston Dynamo FC v Real Salt Lake
Houston: 4-3-1, 13 pts. (4-0-0 H; 0-3-1 A), 10 gf, 8 ga (+2); Last 6: WWLWTW
Strength of Schedule: Where they play matters more than who so far, even if half that could follow from playing easier teams at home and better ones away.
RSL: 3-5-1, 10 pts. (2-2-1 H; 1-3-0 A), 10 gf, 17 ga (-7); Last 6: LLWLWT
Strength of Schedule: The losses (v STL, @ CLB, @ FCD) have all been about as reasonable as the wins (v CLT, v SJ), but last week’s draw at Seattle feels like a big step to straightening out the defense that allowed almost half their goals allowed in back-to-back 0-4 losses.
I’ve watched fair stretches of games for both teams, but Houston feels more like the same team I watched on those occasions than RSL does; the latter comes off as a team with more fight, i.e., the force multiplier that has kept them competitive in recent years. I expect a game tough enough in both directions - and, here, I mean "tough" in the sense of constipation - but you have to feel like it's Houston's to lose.
Nashville SC v Chicago Fire FC
Nashville: 4-3-3, 13 pts. (3-1-2 H; 1-2-1 A), 11 gf, 6 ga (+5); Last 6: LWTLTW
Strength of Schedule: Call it an un-spiked gauntlet, i.e., tough, but not impossible. Still, they’d look more like contenders if they took care of the home games (see losses to Cincy and LAFC).
Chicago: 2-2-5, 11 pts. (1-0-5 H; 1-2-0 A), 13 gf, 13 ga (0); Last 6: WTWTLT
Strength of Schedule: The Fire should be at least two points better than they are (see, home draws v DC and RBNY), but a good team would have gotten three-to-five.
One thing I have to say: I’ve seen Rafael Czichos get beat so many times this season; has to be, like, seven of the thirteen allowed. This feels like a good game to see whether the rumors about Nashville finding a higher gear are true versus hoping to steal something for Chicago.
Los Angeles Galaxy v Colorado Rapids
Galaxy: 1-5-3, 6 pts. (1-2-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 7 gf, 14 ga (-7); Last 6: TLLLWL
Strength of Schedule: In the context of 2023, pretty damn hard; in the context of the Galaxy’s history, though...
Colorado: 1-3-6, 9 pts. (0-1-3 H; 1-2-3 A), 6 gf, 11 ga (-5); Last 6: TTWTTT
Strength of Schedule: In their defense, I see a lot of @s in there. On the one hand, they played the meat of MLS’s most middling (@ ATX, @ SKC, @ CLT, @ VAN), on the other, they got half the points from those and stole six points from direct rivals. Not terrible, but nothing to squeal about.
This has goal-less draw and heartbreak written all over it...
Cincinnati: 6-1-3, 21 pts. (5-0-0 H; 1-1-3 A), 13 gf, 11 ga (+2); Last 6: WWWLWT
Strength of Schedule: Nothing to soft, which makes that good run look a little better...just don’t say “St. Louis” in the mirror any time soon.
DC: 4-4-2, 14 pts. (2-2-1 H; 2-2-1 A), 14 gf, 13 ga (+1); Last 6: LTLWWW
Strength of Schedule: All Eastern Conference, equal balance between home and away; and they’ve been making their own luck lately (wins @ MTL and @ ORL in two of last three)
I sat through 50 minutes of DC’s win over Charlotte, but the whole thing felt like a bum steer: Charlotte barely got into DC’s half, I think I saw their one shot on goal, but can’t remember it, etc. DC dominated Charlotte in a way they simply can’t do – yeah, I said “can’t” – against Cincinnati. All the same, I see that road record, I respect the damage they did to Orlando’s rep and numbers in one of those wins, so, no, I don’t see DC as a team Cincinnati should take lightly.
For what it’s worth, the lineup they started against Charlotte would match up pretty well with Cincy’s usual. Even if, as always, I give the edge to Obinna Nwobodo and Jesus Moreno (or even the depth behind them), DC has a decent bruiser in Russell Canouse and a pair of solid two-way guys in Mateusz Klich (who hasn’t looked DP-worthy yet) and Lewis O’Brien, who I think, 1) is new, and 2) he looked decently rangy and effective against Charlotte (but, again, Charlotte). As much as I trust Cincy’s center to hold, I see a potential overload in midfield, particularly on DC right/Cincy’s left, where Pedro Santos, O’Brien and Taxi Fountas should have a fair chance of getting around and through Raymon Gaddis and Nick Hagglund, and that’s with Christian Benteke, a legitimate, long-limbed handful, running at the back post. Sadly the situation doesn’t look so different on the other side between Klich, Andy Najar (who fucked Charlotte up pretty good), and Benteke. DC’s looked both pretty and literally balanced when I watched them. And that’s probably where Cincy has an advantage...
It’s entirely possible I’m taking the official line-up too seriously, but it looked like an accurate depiction of what I saw – i.e., Canouse chews up the middle and gets forward, but he’s hardly some creative force – and I think that opens useful space for Cincy to operate centrally and in the channels, and even that with an eye to opening up space on the wings – i.e., a little inside and out to open up the through. That’s less about disrespecting what I saw from O’Brien and Klich (though, again, Charlotte), but Cincy should pay attention to which one of them goes forward into the attack and look to transition into the space behind them from the starting whistle to the one that kills it. Let’s see some diagonals out there, fellas.
All in all, I believe Cincy has the defense to manage DC’s attack– based on what I saw, they excel at getting the ball into the attacking third, it’s what comes after that holds ‘em back – and enough ways to pull them apart and otherwise hurt them in the other direction, that I’m calling this a must-win in the sense that, these should be three gettable points.
Inter Miami CF v Atlanta United FC
Miami: 3-6-0, 9 pts. (2-2-0 H; 1-4-0 A), 8 gf, 10 ga (-2); Last 6: LLLLLW
Strength of Schedule: Nothing completely egregious, but a good team wouldn’t have waited until last week at Columbus’ place to win for the first time in seven weeks.
Atlanta: 5-2-3, 18 pts. (4-0-1 H; 1-2-2 A), 19 gf, 16 ga (+3); Last 6: LWTTWL
Strength of Schedule: Four road games, some tough opponents, but also Toronto; somewhat to be expected, but also hinting toward Mid-Table Hell.
Match ups like this are the reason I start calculating the average goals for/against around this time every season – assuming my math’s right (also, don’t), it’s 11.8. Miami has struggled to score – along with everything else – but, Atlanta’s shaky at the back, they’re several games away from their last road win, and Miami finally has Leo Campana, aka, a focal point. And yet I feel like this would have been a better/closer game with Mota involved. Miami may be sitting out 2023.
Club de Football Montreal v. Orlando City SC
Montreal: 3-6-0, 9 pts. (2-1-0 H; 1-5-0 A), 7 gf, 17 ga (-10); Last 6: WLLLWW
Strength of Schedule: Winning against teams in crisis appears to be a strength, getting ripped asshole to esophagus against better organized teams, a weakness.
Orlando: 4-3-2, 14 pts. (2-3-1 H; 2-0-1 A), 10 gf, 10 ga (0); Last 6: LWLWLW
Strength of Schedule: Their fans must hate them...two eminently winnable games (v CLT and v DC) end in losses?
On the one hand, Montreal have punched points out of soft/struggling teams (e.g., Philly, RBNY and SKC), they either score or literally don’t (weird detail, but true), and that tees up Orlando as tricky opposition. Unbeaten on the road, reasonably solid defense, good, if labored with possession...low scoring feels like a safer bet than calling who wins.
Red Bull New York v Philadelphia Union
RBNY: 1-3-6, 9 pts. (1-0-3 H; 0-3-3 A), 7 gf, 10 ga (-3); Last 6: TLTTLT
Strength of Schedule: On the one hand, lots of road games; on the other, I count three HIGHLY winnable games in that mix (@ CLT, @ ATL, @ MTL, @ CHI) and just two points out of them.
Philly: 3-4-2, 11 pts. (3-1-1 H; 0-3-1 A), 14 gf, 13 ga (+1); Last 6: LWLWLW
Strength of Schedule: If you came into the season with “Supporters’ Shield” dancing in the wind around you, you should get more than five points out of @ MTL, v ORL, v SKC, @ CIN, @ CHI, v TOR.
Philly took one final blow from Clubber Lan...er, LAFC and I’m not even sure the first act of their 2023 drama has ended. I saw the first signs of real panic among the few Union fans I follow on the twitters, but, if general themes and trends hold, the Red Bulls feeble attack gives them a chance to gamble against their press. Don’t know if Philly will have the legs for that, but if they do...
San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles FC
SJ: 4-3-3, 15 pts. (4-0-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 13 gf, 13 ga (0); Last 6: TWTWLT
Strength of Schedule: A mix of mid-table and bad, which sums in San Jose’s neighborhood nicely.
LAFC: 5-0-3, 18 pts. (4-0-0 H; 1-0-3 A), 16 gf, 6 ga (+10); Last 6: TWTWWT
Strength of Schedule: Again, I do this kind of thing so I can see that LAFC has three low-scoring draws on the road on either side of beating the Galaxy “on the road.” All good defensive teams...well, Colorado not so much, but still.
LAFC’s road record is a bit deceptive insofar as they’ve played tough teams (e.g., Seattle and Nashville) and tricky venues (e.g., Colorado) in those games. Between San Jose’s confident home record and the lactic acid still burning in LAFC’s legs from their midweek CCL game, it seems wise to treat this game as a micro event, aka, San Jose’s best shot at getting all three points for LAFC inside one afternoon.
Toronto FC v New England Revolution
TFC: 2-2-6, 12 pts. (2-0-3 H; 0-2-3 A), 13 gf, 13 ga (0); Last 6: TTTTLW
Strength of Schedule: Pretty stiff, really, and they’re drawing most of it – except when they shot their own foot in the loss to Philly – which, btw, was only their 2nd loss of 2023. They should have picked up two more points, due to hosting Charlotte, but they didn’t.
NE: 6-1-3, 18 pts. (4-0-2 H; 2-1-1 A), 16 gf, 9 ga (+7); Last 6: WTWTWT
Strength of Schedule: A fair amount of home-cooking (4 of 6) and three easy games (@ DC, v MTL, v SKC), but they’re stubborn and balanced.
Another intriguing one – not least because the Revs play their next three on the road – but the Revs’ depth impressed me when they played Cincy. Toronto, meanwhile, has been aggressively average all season. A very much, could go either way kind of game, but I’d call a New England win as the thing to watch for, but don’t we all owe Toronto some gratitude for demonstrating how little it takes to stay above the playoff line this season?
FC Dallas v St. Louis CITY FC
Dallas: 4-3-3, 12 pts. (3-1-1 H; 1-2-2 A), 12 gf, 11 ga (+1); Last 6: LTWWLT
Strength of Schedule: Pretty rough, decent teams with four on the road – to name three @ LAFC, @NYC, and @ MIN – which makes sense of the slowdown...then again, how much does Dallas ever heat up?
St. Louis: 6-3-1, 19 pts. (3-2-0 H; 3-1-1 A), 22 gf, 12 ga (+10); Last 6: WLLWTL
Strength of Schedule: Put it this way: what I saw from them in the losses to Seattle and Portland, with the draw at Colorado squeezed in, knocked the wheels off the CITY hype-train for me.
Dallas’ defense isn’t what it was last season, but they don’t fuck up a lot – and, based on the...too many times I’ve watch St. Louis play, making teams fuck up is half their game at a minimum. I give Dallas a pretty good chance of keeping them off the board – and that goes double if Klauss is still out – but how much does that matter if Dallas can’t score?
Houston Dynamo FC v Real Salt Lake
Houston: 4-3-1, 13 pts. (4-0-0 H; 0-3-1 A), 10 gf, 8 ga (+2); Last 6: WWLWTW
Strength of Schedule: Where they play matters more than who so far, even if half that could follow from playing easier teams at home and better ones away.
RSL: 3-5-1, 10 pts. (2-2-1 H; 1-3-0 A), 10 gf, 17 ga (-7); Last 6: LLWLWT
Strength of Schedule: The losses (v STL, @ CLB, @ FCD) have all been about as reasonable as the wins (v CLT, v SJ), but last week’s draw at Seattle feels like a big step to straightening out the defense that allowed almost half their goals allowed in back-to-back 0-4 losses.
I’ve watched fair stretches of games for both teams, but Houston feels more like the same team I watched on those occasions than RSL does; the latter comes off as a team with more fight, i.e., the force multiplier that has kept them competitive in recent years. I expect a game tough enough in both directions - and, here, I mean "tough" in the sense of constipation - but you have to feel like it's Houston's to lose.
Nashville SC v Chicago Fire FC
Nashville: 4-3-3, 13 pts. (3-1-2 H; 1-2-1 A), 11 gf, 6 ga (+5); Last 6: LWTLTW
Strength of Schedule: Call it an un-spiked gauntlet, i.e., tough, but not impossible. Still, they’d look more like contenders if they took care of the home games (see losses to Cincy and LAFC).
Chicago: 2-2-5, 11 pts. (1-0-5 H; 1-2-0 A), 13 gf, 13 ga (0); Last 6: WTWTLT
Strength of Schedule: The Fire should be at least two points better than they are (see, home draws v DC and RBNY), but a good team would have gotten three-to-five.
One thing I have to say: I’ve seen Rafael Czichos get beat so many times this season; has to be, like, seven of the thirteen allowed. This feels like a good game to see whether the rumors about Nashville finding a higher gear are true versus hoping to steal something for Chicago.
Los Angeles Galaxy v Colorado Rapids
Galaxy: 1-5-3, 6 pts. (1-2-1 H; 0-3-2 A), 7 gf, 14 ga (-7); Last 6: TLLLWL
Strength of Schedule: In the context of 2023, pretty damn hard; in the context of the Galaxy’s history, though...
Colorado: 1-3-6, 9 pts. (0-1-3 H; 1-2-3 A), 6 gf, 11 ga (-5); Last 6: TTWTTT
Strength of Schedule: In their defense, I see a lot of @s in there. On the one hand, they played the meat of MLS’s most middling (@ ATX, @ SKC, @ CLT, @ VAN), on the other, they got half the points from those and stole six points from direct rivals. Not terrible, but nothing to squeal about.
This has goal-less draw and heartbreak written all over it...
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| Amii Stewart, for the people. |
Portland Timbers v Austin FC
Portland: 3-5-2, 11 pts. (2-1-1 H; 1-4-1 A), 13 gf, 16 ga (-3); Last 6: TTLWLW
Strength of Schedule: If you stare at it long enough, it takes the sting away. Even if just a little bit. They’re, at most, three points off where a good team should be. And the Timbers will play easier stretches. And how’d I miss the number of games they’ve played on the road? (Just 6, but still.)
Austin: 2-4-3, 9 pts. (1-1-3 H; 1-3-0 A), 8 gf, 14 ga (-6); Last 6: LTLTLT
Strength of Schedule: What they have is a perfect and depressing pattern – losses on the road, draws at home – one that’s helping other middling teams more than it’s helping them.
Spent about 50 minutes on their home draw versus San Jose and, big picture, I didn’t see much to undermine the argument that they’ve crashed back down to Earth after over-performing in 2022. Still, credit to them for coming back twice...and do note that both goals came from crosses. In all honesty, the ‘Quakes looked like they had as much chance to win the game as Austin – if for no better reason than they had higher-percentage ideas in the attack...sadly, the Timbers lack a direct analog for Cade Cowell and....sheee-it, this hurts...Jeremy Ebobisse. All in all, Austin looked more vulnerable than the numbers suggest...or maybe I just caught San Jose at their very best.
Austin pressed here and there – suppose that’s something for the Timbers to mind – but I’m less worried about Portland’s passing and general composure on the ball than I was back at, say, Week 3. I call that the biggest development/relief of the 2023 season, because shit looked bleak for the first month. As for what I’d like to actually see...
I’d love a better read on Evander, but also don’t see that happening in MLS Week 10. And, anxious as I am about pushing Cristhian Paredes to his first start, I don’t see any real options after David Ayala’s long-term (season-ending, right?) injury. Given the options available (last I heard), I’d stop pretending Juan David Mosquera will defend (though, to his credit, he often does), go with a back three of Dario Zuparic, Zac McGraw and Eric Miller, line-up Claudio Bravo opposite Mosquera – if with one cheating back to manage whatever bullshit Austin attempts, and I’d put Paredes, Chara, and Evander between them, with Franck Boli running around up top. Another potential plus: bringing Santiago Moreno off the bench would change Portland’s attack into a new enough shape to (hopefully) throw Austin’s defense.
Swapping over to Austin, they really do look the diminished team so far. All Timbers’ fans know what Maxi Urruti brings, but Sebastian Driussi hasn’t looked like an MVP dark horse all season, and, with Alex Ring still starting as a CB, Austin’s still a little light at the back – hence them breaking on the wrong side of average in both directions in the raw numbers. They started a couple players I don’t know well – Emiliano Rigoni and Rodney Redes – but they faded in with the rest of the present and, apparently, statistical mediocrity. Never say never, knock (knock) on wood (baby), etc., but Portland should be able to manage Austin’s attack while still leaving...like, 60% of their collective capacity free to figure out how to break them down.
I’m calling this another must-win, mainly on the grounds that Portland shouldn’t drop these points.
Vancouver Whitecaps v Minnesota United FC
Vancouver: 2-2-5, 11 pts. (2-1-2 H; 0-1-3 A), 11 gf, 7 ga (+4); Last 6: TTWWTT
Strength of Schedule: Call it a competitive schedule and they’ve picked up seven points of nine at home over their past three home games.
Minnesota: 3-3-3, 12 pts. (0-1-3 H; 3-2-0 A), 8 gf, 8 ga (0); Last 6: TWLLLT
Strength of Schedule: Not easy by any means, but they’ve clearly fallen off a strong start.
Big one for Vancouver. Think that’s my only thought. A win here makes it look like they may have something...even with the Loons’ recent struggles.
Seattle Sounders v Sporting Kansas City
Seattle: 6-2-2, 20 pts. (4-0-1 H; 2-2-1 A), 17 gf, 7 ga (+10); Last 6: WWWLWT
Strength of Schedule: Given how close they’ve been to “strength in the schedule,” pretty much irrelevant. Even the wins against SKC and the Galaxy seem a little more impressive by being on the road.
SKC: 0-7-3, 3 pts. (0-3-1 H; 0-4-2 A), 3 gf, 15 ga (-12); Last 6: LTLLLL
Strength of Schedule: They are the team that lets every other team to be their best possible selves.
I have no love for SKC, or Peter Vermes for that matter, but, LORD, no team should have to suffer this bad, so I'm pulling really hard for SKC, while also expecting I’ll have to look away, because the children...
Those are my balls and strikes, people. We’ll see what VAR comes back with sometime Sunday.
Portland: 3-5-2, 11 pts. (2-1-1 H; 1-4-1 A), 13 gf, 16 ga (-3); Last 6: TTLWLW
Strength of Schedule: If you stare at it long enough, it takes the sting away. Even if just a little bit. They’re, at most, three points off where a good team should be. And the Timbers will play easier stretches. And how’d I miss the number of games they’ve played on the road? (Just 6, but still.)
Austin: 2-4-3, 9 pts. (1-1-3 H; 1-3-0 A), 8 gf, 14 ga (-6); Last 6: LTLTLT
Strength of Schedule: What they have is a perfect and depressing pattern – losses on the road, draws at home – one that’s helping other middling teams more than it’s helping them.
Spent about 50 minutes on their home draw versus San Jose and, big picture, I didn’t see much to undermine the argument that they’ve crashed back down to Earth after over-performing in 2022. Still, credit to them for coming back twice...and do note that both goals came from crosses. In all honesty, the ‘Quakes looked like they had as much chance to win the game as Austin – if for no better reason than they had higher-percentage ideas in the attack...sadly, the Timbers lack a direct analog for Cade Cowell and....sheee-it, this hurts...Jeremy Ebobisse. All in all, Austin looked more vulnerable than the numbers suggest...or maybe I just caught San Jose at their very best.
Austin pressed here and there – suppose that’s something for the Timbers to mind – but I’m less worried about Portland’s passing and general composure on the ball than I was back at, say, Week 3. I call that the biggest development/relief of the 2023 season, because shit looked bleak for the first month. As for what I’d like to actually see...
I’d love a better read on Evander, but also don’t see that happening in MLS Week 10. And, anxious as I am about pushing Cristhian Paredes to his first start, I don’t see any real options after David Ayala’s long-term (season-ending, right?) injury. Given the options available (last I heard), I’d stop pretending Juan David Mosquera will defend (though, to his credit, he often does), go with a back three of Dario Zuparic, Zac McGraw and Eric Miller, line-up Claudio Bravo opposite Mosquera – if with one cheating back to manage whatever bullshit Austin attempts, and I’d put Paredes, Chara, and Evander between them, with Franck Boli running around up top. Another potential plus: bringing Santiago Moreno off the bench would change Portland’s attack into a new enough shape to (hopefully) throw Austin’s defense.
Swapping over to Austin, they really do look the diminished team so far. All Timbers’ fans know what Maxi Urruti brings, but Sebastian Driussi hasn’t looked like an MVP dark horse all season, and, with Alex Ring still starting as a CB, Austin’s still a little light at the back – hence them breaking on the wrong side of average in both directions in the raw numbers. They started a couple players I don’t know well – Emiliano Rigoni and Rodney Redes – but they faded in with the rest of the present and, apparently, statistical mediocrity. Never say never, knock (knock) on wood (baby), etc., but Portland should be able to manage Austin’s attack while still leaving...like, 60% of their collective capacity free to figure out how to break them down.
I’m calling this another must-win, mainly on the grounds that Portland shouldn’t drop these points.
Vancouver Whitecaps v Minnesota United FC
Vancouver: 2-2-5, 11 pts. (2-1-2 H; 0-1-3 A), 11 gf, 7 ga (+4); Last 6: TTWWTT
Strength of Schedule: Call it a competitive schedule and they’ve picked up seven points of nine at home over their past three home games.
Minnesota: 3-3-3, 12 pts. (0-1-3 H; 3-2-0 A), 8 gf, 8 ga (0); Last 6: TWLLLT
Strength of Schedule: Not easy by any means, but they’ve clearly fallen off a strong start.
Big one for Vancouver. Think that’s my only thought. A win here makes it look like they may have something...even with the Loons’ recent struggles.
Seattle Sounders v Sporting Kansas City
Seattle: 6-2-2, 20 pts. (4-0-1 H; 2-2-1 A), 17 gf, 7 ga (+10); Last 6: WWWLWT
Strength of Schedule: Given how close they’ve been to “strength in the schedule,” pretty much irrelevant. Even the wins against SKC and the Galaxy seem a little more impressive by being on the road.
SKC: 0-7-3, 3 pts. (0-3-1 H; 0-4-2 A), 3 gf, 15 ga (-12); Last 6: LTLLLL
Strength of Schedule: They are the team that lets every other team to be their best possible selves.
I have no love for SKC, or Peter Vermes for that matter, but, LORD, no team should have to suffer this bad, so I'm pulling really hard for SKC, while also expecting I’ll have to look away, because the children...
Those are my balls and strikes, people. We’ll see what VAR comes back with sometime Sunday.
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