Saturday, April 29, 2023

St. Louis CITY FC 1-2 Portland Timbers: No Comments, But Also Three Pages' Worth

Kid's already miles deep on, "you just made the list, mate."
What’s that phrase? No comments?

No comments because that Portland Timbers win checked every box.

At the apex of the glory, a defense stayed organized and held strong, and then one player put the team on his back and ran till they got proverbially there. Even more important, the Timbers took control of a game for the first time in 2023...sorry, the second; the way they stomped Seattle seems like something I usually keep between me and my therapist. At any rate, after a desperately drab first half, the Timbers either got a locker room stemwinder or they figured out that St. Louis CITY FC didn’t have their whole heart in tonight’s game. Once it became clear they could take the game to St. Louis, the Timbers kept yelling, “please, sir, may I have another,” kind of like an Oliver gone gritty on a revenge bender, until they answered back to St. Louis’...let’s call it complicated equalizer....

...and that’s another box checked: the offense repaying a good game by the defense by clawing back one goal.

The Timbers have never looked as much like a professional soccer team as they did tonight, not in 2023, not like you, not like me, and, yeah, I’m starting to trust my credulous eyes more with each passing week. To finally get to the lead, the Timbers beat St. Louis, the best team in Major League Soccer’s Western Conference coming in to tonight, 2-1 and at their place...wait...oh my God, I finally found a linguistic detour around “at home.” Sorry to interrupt, but this is my Mount Baker at a minimum.

Before digging into the rest – and, honestly, even acknowledging the timeline – I have a couple notes on St. Louiis. This was either the fourth or fifth time I’ve watched them this season and, outside last week’s draw at Colorado, I’ve never seen them look so...what’s the word...less like they'd spent the afternoon blood-doping and doing all-day two-minute hate sessions at every Timbers player. When I watched the Colorado game, I put the absence of their xA (xpected Aggression) down to saving their lungs for a full 90 at altitude. After tonight, I’m starting to wonder if they’ll already hit the fundamental limitations of relying on “playing at 11” as a strategic choice. They didn’t have Joao Klauss – who, to his very real credit, has Maxi Urruti-level qualities at brain-fucking defenders – and that left Eduard Louwen trying to do everything with, as I once said without the information to back it up, “MLS average players.”

Despite that – hell, despite an attacking performance that any self-respecting St. Louis fan would have blushed at after, say, what their team did to FC Cincinnati in MLS Week 8 and frankly piteous attacking numbers – St. Louis had the patience and wherewithal to punish a moment of collective ball-adoration by the Timbers defense: Portland’s center backs dropped deep enough to leave a vertical gap between them and the defensive midfield and Evander failed to clog the right channel and St. Louis’ Tomas Ostrak slipped into the opening; from there, he pulled the ball back to Celio Pompeu, who had been left free by both Dario Zuparic and Zac McGraw. When he roofed home the equalizer, there went the operating theory of my game thread for the game – i.e., that the team that scored first would be the most likely to score again.

Since just 2019.
At the same time, that goal ran against almost everything that had happened to that point. McGraw, who still probably counts as my man of the match and 2023 MVP, spent the entire day cutting out anything and everything that so much dreamed of being a final ball; the color commentary guy (still don’t know how to find out who it is) noted that Zuparic had started hunting Louwen every time he entered Portland’s defensive third and, while I didn’t see it, I’m inclined to believe it based on Louwen’s diminished attacking presence in the second half. And yet it happened, so pull one more chalk line for the theory that the Timbers defense will always give up gilded chances.

And that’s where Santiago Moreno comes in, a player whose star had dimmed after sparkling as one of the Timbers’ few bright spots at the beginning of 2023. Up to somewhere around the 60th minute, Moreno looked like a player whose doubts had effected everything down to his first touch. Some time after that, Moreno started showing flashes, most of them in the same mold as the play that led to Portland’s winner, just good, aggressive moves that assume greater than your average risk in hope of getting a bigger return. For instance...

In order to make his assist on the winning goal come off, Moreno had to post up his defender, knock legs with the second defender who closed to poke the ball past him, run ahead of that defender plus one more nipping at his heels, all of that while running outside in across the top of St. Louis defensive third to find Yimmi Chara in more space than I thought the latter had. Unlike past seasons and outside bicycle-kick scenarios, Yimmi hit his shot first time and left St. Louis’ Roman Burki for dead with a shot to the far post. And, once the Timbers got the lead, both the eye test and the xG chart agree they never looked like giving it up.

To acknowledge the obvious, no, I haven’t got to how Portland took the lead in the first place. At the same time, I guess that’s the subtext for all of this. Not much of anything, never mind anything remarkable, took place over the first half – and that’s why I credit the defense for this result as much as the attack. For the first time in gods know how many games, Aljaz Ivacic didn’t make even one save tonight – not great on the goal allowed (also, so not his fault), but stellar in every other column. With that back-stop behind them and, quite possibly, Cristhian Paredes with a mission to step into the channels between CITY's defensive midfield and the defense, the Timbers started to make St. Louis defense uncomfortable – which, for the record, still strikes me as the secret to their undoing. The Fall had already started to happen, in other words, before it hit the ground. The chances had come, basically.

Portland took the lead on an Evander penalty kick, a smooth one too, and the call that led to it felt controversial in real time. Having tried to get a definite look myself (the full highlights are all I have; place that dot where you need to), I get that, but I feel like it was the way John Nelson’s arm jerked up in the middle of his slide that gave away the game. From a strictly non-partisan perspective, that call still feels harsh as hell, but it was neither unreasonable nor undeserved. The Timbers started the second half as the better team and ended it the same way and they won because that was the only half of the game that mattered.

Oh, children, it is dangerous. Don't you know?
I may have had more fun with the win over Seattle (scratch that, I definitely had more fun with the win over Seattle), but this feels like Portland’s biggest win of 2023. The fact that it came against the West’s leading team, one that had caught multiple comers off-guard, and on the road to boot? That only makes it feel bigger. As people who follow this space know, I’ve been feeling better about the Timbers for about a month now. Setting the question of whether St. Louis played their best aside – something I’m doing for the very deliberate reason that, like a lot of people, I’m waiting for their live-fast-die-young strategy to burn itself out – this counts as one of those game where you look at the calendar and hope the Timbers will get one point, while offering up burnt sacrifices they’ll get all three points at the temple around the alley.

To close with some loose talking points...

- Seeing David Ayala collapse onto his non-contact knee after he showed more signs than he ever has of being a force in the Timbers midfield was a unique kind of pain. I can only imagine what it felt like for him. Get well soon, kid. I’m confident every Timbers fan is pulling for you...except that asshole Greg.

- I am officially happy with the Eric Miller acquisition. He is as solid as he is unspectacular. Seriously, there is so little to hate that I just don’t.

- Juan David Mosquera, while not directly involved in anything (I recall, which gets hazier by the minute) was nonetheless vital for the win. When he wasn’t locking down Portland’s right he was terrorizing St. Louis’ left. For the record, that’s the same side that fucking destroyed Cincinnati.

- I think Franck Boli’s going to be both fine and a multi-faceted upgrade over Jaroslaw Niezgoda. Without taking anything away from what felt like Niezgoda’s grittiest game of 2023 – was that a slide tackle I saw from him late in the second and, oooh, from behind? – Boli seems more comfortable dealing with pressure and making the better pass; on top of that, he’s better at running channels and generally finding space. To flag a detail I missed, it was Boli’s shot* that set up Nelson to take the fall for the penalty kick...

... * and yet I was more impressed when Boli got inside (think it was) Kyle Hiebert, leaned into him thereby setting up a shield and firing a shot, no matter how weak, on goal. Boli was far from perfect tonight, but he’s like a more mobile, less effective version of Felipe Mora, where Niezgoda is neither.

- And yet, I was still thrilled to see Niezgoda rise to the challenge tonight.

- Paredes also deserves a big shout. He started improving a couple season ago and the only thing that has stopped him from building on that was injuries. Paredes not only looked....let’s call it ¾ dangerous in the attack tonight, he had a nice, pokey night in defense, which is to say he defends opportunistically and, so long as that works, I’ll take it.

Finally....

- Evander. I think he’s starting to get his teammates and vice versa. It has been Boli over the past couple weeks, but I was delighted to see Ayala read his intent and back-heel what could have been a worldie of a pass had anyone else seen it coming. Related, it’s coming, by which I mean Evander’s efficacy. At the same time, you don't see a player lose the ball quite like he does when he has the ball on or near his feet. He's casual in a way I find frustrating and yet oddly appealing - which is to say "roguish" in the fullest, most middle-aged sense of the word. Tonight, it cost both him and the team. Here's to hoping it's a young man trying something on instead of a middle-aged man trying to...wait...trying to keep something....going...wow, my subconscience, now?

Bold thought: I think something like that is going on in Evander's head right now, only without the references to middle-age, et al.

The Timbers have five winnable games ahead and I feel better about them after tonight. Huzzah.

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