Level Set 3, Atlanta United FC: 2025 & History, Ahoy, MLS's Drunken Sailors

The answer to the subtitle: enjoy the show.

What follows is a brief history of Atlanta United FC, plus more brief notes on whatever long-term tendencies they have. Their 2025 season gets weighed on both sides of that and the whole thing ends with where I see things with them in this very specific moment in time - i.e., before First Kick 2026. You should count on things happening between here and there.

The post ends with a scale I came up with to measure the long-term success of every team in Major League Soccer. It does some things well (e.g., count trophies/achievements), other things less well (capture recent trends). It's called the Joint Points Scale and you can find a link that explains what it does. I was really stoned when I came up with the scale and wrote the post. Caveat lector. With that...

Thumbnail History
As much as any team in league history, Atlanta United FC kicked off the tradition of expansion teams coming into MLS swinging. They arrived in the 2017 season like fun drunks livening up a wedding, finishing fourth overall and with the second-best goal differential (+30) behind an historically (and freakishly) good Toronto FC team. Atlanta finished even higher in 2018 – if, again, second-best after a Red Bull New York team winning its third Supporters’ Shield – but that promptly left their minds when they won their first MLS Cup at…well, an unfortunate stroll over my Portland Timbers. The secret to pulling that off followed from near-perfect roster construction. It started with (more or less) flipping off that season’s Expansion Draft, finding two future stars in the 2017 Superdraft – Julian Gressel was the stand-out (Miles Robinson bloomed later) – and then going nuts with trades and transfers. Atlanta’s FO built a spine out of ol’ reliables from all over MLS – e.g., Michael Parkhurst, Jeff Larentowicz, and their once-forever goalkeeper, Brad Guzan - but they had to scour the international markets for their crown jewels, Josef Martinez and Miguel Almiron. One gave them lightning-like verticality – Almiron, who seemed to bend time when he got on the run – while the other finally ended Roy Lassiter’s reign of terror atop the single-season record for goals scored. For two fun-filled seasons – 2018 and 2019 - defenses struggled to keep Martinez from scoring goals and all came perilously close to allowing him a goal per game. Just when Atlanta’s Act I seemed destined to go on forever, it moved on to Act II (as every play does), aka, the one where the hero(es) look lost and everything looks impossible and the doom kicks in. The trouble started when Martinez tore his ACL in the first game of 2020 – he missed the entire season – and then came COVID, chaos (aka, Gabriel Heinze) and, when it all ended, a 23rd-place overall finish in the final standings. That’s not to say Atlanta didn’t move heaven, earth and bags of money to avoid that fate: when Almiron moved on to the EPL’s Newcastle, they gambled heavily on Ezequiel Barco and Pity Martinez, two young, (reportedly) high-upside talents from Argentina. They paid a $15 million transfer for Barco and somewhere around $10 million for Martinez; Barco played more games (81), but Martinez got more in less time (39), but he was only around for 2019-20, while Barco lasted from 2018-2020. Both players are more memorable as cautionary tales than for anything they did on the field. Coaching problems plagued the team as well, starting with apparent sociopath, Heinze, but, with respect to Gonzalo Pineda, they haven’t got it right since. Some entry-level farting around in the CONCACAF Champions’ League aside (see below*), things faded fast and, hard as they’ve tried, the color hasn’t flushed back into Atlanta’s cheeks since…or has it?

Getting Reacquainted with Atlanta United FC, MLS's Super-Fun Party Guy

Act II, when things always look their worst.

[Standing Disclaimer: While I have watched…just a stupid amount of MLS over the years, I don’t watch the vast majority of games, never mind all of them. As such, it’s fair to take anything below that isn’t a hard number or a physical trophy as an impression, a couple steps removed.]

Thumbnail History

Tempted as I am to say that Atlanta United FC started a tradition of expansion teams coming into MLS swinging, that strictly applies to them and Los Angeles FC (with honorable mention to New York City FC because they didn’t actually lift a trophy until their 7th season). Atlanta announced their intentions in its very first season (2017, btw), finishing fourth overall and with the second best goal differential (+30) behind an historically (and freakishly) great Toronto FC team. They followed that opening triumph by finishing even higher in their second season (second overall, this time behind a Red Bull New York team winning its third Supporters’ Shield) and winning MLS Cup at…well, an unfortunate stroll because the team they bested was, again, my Portland Timbers (to any Timbers fans reading this, it only seems like Portland has lost MLS Cup to every team in MLS, but it was just NYCFC and Atlanta). That ended Act I in Atlanta’s history. They kicked off Act II in 2019 by finishing third overall and winning the U.S. Open…back when such things mattered. Then, Act II being what it is, tragedy (and a global pandemic) struck in 2020 and the breezes that forever blew at their back turned to blow in their faces. They ended the dread COVID season in 23rd place overall, out of the playoff picture despite a generous expansion of its outer boundaries. Atlanta’s fortunes have been mixed since then – e.g., two top 10 finishes (2021 and 2023) on either side of yet another 23rd place finish in 2022. In an expansion of theatric convention, Atlanta has stretched the third act of its early history over three seasons. The question is whether continues as tragedy or comedy.

Best Season(s)

Their Cup-winning 2018 season provides the obvious answer, what with Josef Martinez, Miguel Almiron and…[supporting cast] terrorizing all of MLS in transition, but I’m going to Atlanta’s 2018 season, when they finished third and won that Open Cup. Why? I mean, two trophies in three seasons. Think of what the future felt like to their fans…

…but, obviously, their best season was 2018. Lifting the Cup in front of your fans is a beautiful thing.

Toronto FC 2-2 Atlanta United FC: A Report (With Big Digressions on Video Review and the High Press)

Hoplite. Before and after.

I’ll start this one with a statement: MLS, and soccer as a sport, needs to figure out how they want to cope with the rise of video technology – specifically how much they want to let it into the game. Yeah, I sound late to the party, but I think it’s live more now than ever, and more subtly. Of course I’m referencing the sending off of Atlanta United’s Yamil Asad for knocking Eric Zavaleta in the back of the head in Atlanta’s 2-2 road draw at Toronto FC. The lag was long enough to make it look like the referee flashed red only after a chorus of rage rained down from the crowd, maybe even after he caught video of Asad’s dubiously raised elbow.

I know video technology is coming, but I still think its introduction begs questions that are more dichotomous than its advocates want to admit. Assuming yesterday’s ref (David Gantar (clearly from Planet Awesome)) responded to pressure from the crowd, what does that detail, specifically, mean to the larger problem (yeah, I see it as a problem) of video review? I think there’s a lot of ambient faith that soccer fans get pissy when someone interrupts their collective flow. Maybe, that’s all I’m saying. What I’m arguing is that, the more people bitch about every last failure that any given referee will inevitably make, the more readily those gripes translate as pressure to “clean up” more and more parts of the game, Dr. Frankenstein didn’t want to create a monster, etc. (come, there’s a slippery slope to ride down!)

The underlying logic to video review gets at a symptom: the unspoken desire for a perfectly officiated game. Consider, however, the incentives. Once video review for certain circumstances comes into play, a referee has every reason to just blow the whistle and let video sort it out momentous decisions. The trick is, the referee has to patrol the rest of the game relying entirely on his own judgment and, personally, I think the mindset of relying on video will bleed through

I’ll be the first to admit this makes for a two-step argument, but I think it holds, so here goes: the second greatest service that any referee can bring to any game is consistency in the way he/she calls fouls, and generally handles shit (The first greatest: barring violence from the game to the extent possible). It is my strong belief that anything that causes a ref to second guess himself undermines said second greatest service.

But enough of that…to the game!

The Late Tackle, 12 15 2016: The Saddest Draft of All, Player Moves, and Onalfo's Chances

Today, we all wear white dresses and sad faces.

Yeah, yeah, we’ve all been bludgeoned with videos of “the save” (i.e., the only interesting moment in MLS Cup 2016), but the little wrinkle of playing broadcaster reactions over it charmed me just enough. For me, Panama (that rolling “r’) and Poland (“superman”) win it.

Moving on…

MLS Waiver Draft, aka, Sad Junior High Dance

I held off on posting this till after MLS held the Waiver Draft today, the mildly depressing annual tradition of professional athletes waiting for a team, any team, to pick them for a potentially (but probably not) life-changing slow-jam dance. SBI Soccer posted some players who might help out a team – and, going over the full list, I picked out a couple names of my own (and with the Portland Timbers at least in the back of my mind – e.g., Stiven Mendoza (NYCFC), Luke Boden (Orlando), and Phanuel Kavita (RSL) – but (what the hell? another metaphor), the Waiver Draft is the draft equivalent of closing time at a bar full of lonely, lonely people. Still, Portland needs cover at left back (Boden), wingers, even if just for depth (Mendoza), and we’re thin enough at centerback (Kavita); maybe tonight we don’t need to go home alone…just sayin’.

Still, the results are in and, ouch. Not one player picked. Nothing but a bunch of kids eyeing the dance floor and biting back tears…

Portland v. LA: The Open Secret to LA's Success

That one that hit the easel? That's me on Vancouver.

[Portland Timbers v. Los Angeles Galaxy was one of three games I took in this weekend (on that, didn't go well). I'm trying to do better about writing up the empirical stuff.]

I wrote up Portland versus LA elsewhere, if mostly from the Timbers' point of view, but even that post was lousy with the central truth about LA: they are one hell of a sound defensive team. Small wonder, then, that they're crawling up the Western Conference standings, small wonder they're rocking a now-four-game winning streak. As noted in that post, LA has allowed three goals in their past eight games, a tally that pencils out to 0.375 goals per game. In other words, good.

Just 19 goals allowed so far, less than a goal a game. They have 34 goals for on the other side of the ledger; only five Major League Soccer teams have more...all of which rolls into a theme I'll discuss in the weekly post when that goes up – e.g. how very, very wrong I can sometimes be when I speak/write. Think I said something about LA "not being all that good" a couple weeks ago, and in a public, recorded forum, so, yeah...

Portland Timbers v. Chicago Fire: Hella Continuity

Industrious. Pointless.

The Chicago Fire played the Portland Timbers to a 1-1 draw tonight. Now, two teams knotted at ones in a preseason game wouldn't normally bear notice, but this result is different. Think about it: Chicago tied and Portland fucked up on defense.

That, my friend, provides precise thumbnail descriptions for both Chicago's and Portland's 2014. The details updated for this 2015 saw Michael Nanchoff score on a deflected free-kick, while Chicago picked up their obligatory draw courtesy of a Norberto Paparatto own-goal. (Say, the Timbers scored both goals – silver lining!)

Just some general notes to make before doing the whole bullet thing. I like Caleb Porter's approach to this one, even if I'm totally unaware as to why he adopted it. If nothing else, starting mostly bench players afforded all of us amateur scouts a chance to see what the new kids can do. And, broadly, the new kids impressed - especially the first shift. I'll lard this point below, but, all in all, Portland took the game to Chicago.

I'll get back to Chicago – after talking about the Three Big Things for Portland. Which brings us back to those new kids:

Chicago Fire 2015 Season Preview: On Breaking the (Countless) Deadlocks

Good enough. They were ties, man.

What Happened Last Year
The Chicago Fire tied over half of their games in 2014. Literally. Think about that. That's less a season than an intellectual/physical exploration of mediocrity as a philosophical construct – e.g. can mediocrity to have "heights" and, if so, how many draws does it take to achieve the Platonic ideal? I didn't watch Chicago much in 2014. With the outcome at least heavily implied – again, literally, over half the time – I figured I knew how the games would end. I caught enough, however, to form some impressions, among them: Quincy Amirikwa's solid season as a bee-in-the-bonnet forward; Harrison Shipp's Rookie-of-the-First-Half-of-the-Year season; the now-departed Bakary Soumare, by all appearances, not giving a fuck (an impression confirmed by later comments); the essential wisdom of Gonzalo Segares' recent retirement; the nice send-off for the long-serving, lately-suffering Logan Pause; long-time midfielder Jeff Larentowicz shifted to the Fire backline midway through perhaps per Soumare's visible lack of shit-giving; Juan Luis Anangono...he played in Chicago last year, right? (Barely, but right). The Fire had a crap year by anyone’s standards. Six wins is the unpalatable flipside to all those ties...that's blue balls frustration. Worse, something larger loomed over the franchise – specifically, an apparently widely-held belief that the front office is reluctant to invest in winning (uh, turns out the evidence is scarce; swear it showed on message boards; or something). The contrast with the original, winning Fire teams must sprinkle salt in the wounds.
Final Stats: 6-10-18, 36 pts., 9th in the East; 41 gf, 51 ga