 |
| In perspective... |
Again, I use the words “IN” and “OUT” to mean teams that are
in and out of the playoffs, respectively, at time of writing. It’s a loose
identifier for “good” and “bad,” basically.
As I carry this project into its third(? fourth?) week, aka,
MLS 2018, Week 21, I find myself reevaluating what it actually delivers in
terms of information. I pulled the first post together on the theory that MLS
results are less “wacky” and “random” than they appear – e.g., the Vancouver
Whitecaps are middling at home and bad on the road, and that’s good context for
the Seattle Sounders beating them in Seattle last week. The place where my perception
around this stuff has shifted comes with looking at this dog-pile of data less
as something predictive (e.g., Real Salt Lake will almost certainly lose on the
road), than as a way of establishing a sort of base-line for each team,
something that helps identify this game as a smashing success or that game as a
signpost pointing toward ruin.
In other words, the most useful thing all this provides is a
way assign a team some kind of “level” and to use that to parse results as
“good,” “bad,” “holy shit,” or, to return to the MLS default (I’m battling
against), “Jesus, how did that happen?”
I’m still working on how to read this damn thing, basically,
no small part of it following from how to re-wire the data to account for, say,
the Los Angeles Galaxy’s high-scoring revival, or the looming (potential)
collapse of the New England Revolution (or, to stick with that MLS WTF 2.0,
what the holy hell has gotten into Minnesota lately?) Or, to give the sharper
example, when I established the “IN/OUT” data in the first post, Vancouver was
an “IN” team, while the Galaxy was “OUT.” That not only flipped, it shows no
signs of flipping back. That said, those teams are the exceptions and most
teams have stayed on the same side of the “IN/OUT” divide as they did when I
started; to hang an example on that, with the teams below them struggling as
they are, the Revolution may never become bad enough to fall out of the playoffs.
To translate all the above, the softest data below will be
the “IN/OUT” splits, even though those will remain roughly accurate. Oh, and I've made multiple corrections in the other numbers as well; think I'll catch 'em all one day. OK, hope that
makes sense. Even if it doesn’t, let’s take a look at MLS 2018, Week 21. I’ve
already hinted at the biggest surprise (Minnesota), but a couple other teams
(e.g., Chicago Fire and Philadelphia Union) underlined rumors that all is not
well. Moving on...
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlanta United FC - 44 points, 13-4-5 (7-2-3 home, 6-2-2
away), 46 gf, 25 ga (+21), 22 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: DWDWDWLWDW (5-1-4 (3-0-2 home, 2-1-2
away), 18 gf, 9 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAAHHAAHH
Record v IN Teams: 3-1-3
Record v OUT Teams: 2-0-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: They’re not absolutely burying
teams - the balance of their losses are on the late side of their schedule - but,
so long as Josef Martinez keeps scoring (that single-season goals record is
endangered at a minimum), they’ll keep winning the easy games and drawing the
tough ones.
Last Week: 3-1 home win over DC United. The key detail: they’d
produced what looked like a wave of chances (example) before Martinez scored the first goal in his hat-trick. Judging by the highlights, Miguel Almiron deserved equal
billing.
Next Week: Away to a Montreal Impact team that looks
purpose-built to pull a reverse on Atlanta. A bigger test for Montreal than
Atlanta, but I’d give Atlanta the better nod at passing.
5 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 5/7
One of the softest end-runs in MLS, period. Another reason
why drawing Seattle missed a chance.
New York City FC - 40 points, 12-4-4 (10-0-1 home, 2-4-3
away), 40 gf, 24 ga (+16), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: DWLWDWLWWW (6-2-2 (6-0-1 home, 0-2-1
away), 21 gf, 10 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAHHHAHHH
Record v IN Teams: 2-1-2
Record v OUT Teams: 3-2-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: They look solid, they look fast. Everything
else that I had here before applied to last week, so it didn’t make sense. And
they didn’t give me anything to work with this week.
Last Week: Picked their noses. And probably practiced a bit.
Busy week ahead. Don’t forget your toothbrush!
Next Week: NYCFC travels first to Orlando, than all the way
out North and West to Seattle, so travel will be their third opponent. I could
have added, “and it might be their toughest opponent” a couple weeks back, but
no more. Seattle’s defense has always been good, and that’s still operative, but with key players returning, they're no longer a walk.
And with Orlando’s guys playing for their jobs, I’d only say the data argues
NYC could take all six. Given all the above, anything more than three points should
get everyone’s attention. Or hold it. It’s not like they’re not on the
collective radar.
7 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 6/9
They remain in a good place.
New York Red Bulls - 38 points, 12-5-2 (8-1-1 home, 3-2-1
away), 39 gf, 19 ga (+20), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDLDWWWLWW (6-2-2 (4-0-1 home, 2-2-1
away), 16 gf, 8 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHAAHHAHH
Record v IN Teams: 4-2-1
Record v OUT Teams: 2-0-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: I keep hearing rumors about a
rebuild that’s something short of code, that’s via MLS Pravda (the main site),
but until they stop getting results…and they are.
Last Week: A 2-0 home win over New England, and the boxscore hints at a tighter than the score-line. Bradley Wright-Phillips’
insurance goal was/is a thing of simple beauty and/or this team’s cheat-code.
As with Martinez, BWP is like a get outta jail card for his team (srsly).
Next Week: Another team slated to play two this week: away
to DC first, then home against Columbus. DC at home is a relatively untested
proposition this year, and I’ve heard sputtering sounds issuing for Columbus
for a while. The Red Bulls at their best could get all six points – so I guess
that’s the question in play: are they at their best? Four points seems plausible,
even if I’m not sure what’ll happen where.
7 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 5/9
With the basically favorable schedule, it’s still about just
taking the games one at a time, and taking care of business.
Columbus Crew SC - 33 points, 9-7-6 (7-2-3 home, 2-5-3
away), 27 gf, 27 ga (0), 22 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDDDLLWLLW (3-4-3 (2-1-2 home, 1-3-1
away), 10 gf, 17 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AAHHHAHAAH
Record v IN Teams: 2-3-2
Record v OUT Teams: 1-1-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Praise for “The System” has given
way to understanding how it cuts both ways, for and against Columbus. Their goal differential went from positive to
negative over their past 10 - and stayed their this week. Some of that is
opposition, some of it isn’t.
Last Week: Beat Orlando 3-2 in Columbus. If you haven’t seen
Wil Trapp’s screamer, it’s answers the perennial question of, “why the hell did
he shoot for way out there?” (and also has a shot at GOTY). Orlando is
improving, but it still took that shot in stoppage time to rescue the result
for Columbus. Gut-check wins are good and all, but…
Next Week: Away to the Red Bulls, and Crew fans should feel
nervous about that one.
5 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 6/6
Columbus gets to coast a bit from September 19 on. They have
to get there whole first, of course, step over some sharks... (and Orlando? Not
sharks.)
Montreal Impact - 28 points, 9-12-1 (7-3-0 home, 2-9-1
away), 28 gf, 37 ga (-9), 22 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LWLWWWWLWD (6-3-1 (5-0-0 home, 1-3-1
away), 12 gf, 8 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAHAHHAHA
Record v IN Teams: 1-2-1
Record v OUT Teams: 5-1-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: I like at least 2/3 of the
Ignacio Piatti, Matteo Mancosu, Alejandro Silva front line, but I don’t know
the other third. After watching them seriously stall my Timbers, I’m taking rumors
of a revived defense more seriously (then, the Timbers attack).
Last Week: They played the Timbers to a 2-2 draw in Portland
and, as noted here, they played it better than Portland. I think the way they
play gets over-simplified (e.g., see the stuff in here about where Piatti played), but they did this bank of 5 in front of a bank of 4. Again, a wall.
Next Week: They host Atlanta. A Montreal win would be big
shit, and it’s not impossible. They match up well against Atlanta (and other
teams that get vertical fast), but Atlanta is a stronger attacking team than
Portland. Montreal forced Portland to crosses, because they’re bad at them. Atlanta/Martinez
feast on crosses. Probably Atlanta’s to lose…but keep an eye on this one.
7 home games remaining, 6 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/4
Montreal has a puncher’s chance. And my money is no longer
tipping against it.
New England Revolution - 28 points, 7-7-7 (6-3-3 home, 1-4-4
away), 33 gf, 32 ga (+1), 21 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: DDWDDWDLLL (2-3-5 (2-1-2 home, 0-2-3
away), 18 gf, 15 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAHHAAHAH
Record v IN Teams: 1-1-2
Record v OUT Teams: 1-2-3
Current Thumbnail Profile: Imperfectly capable, and also the
victims and beneficiaries of their surroundings. For all their talent in the
attack, they’re less effective than they should be. Worse, they can neither
defend, nor run up the score. They lack “that thing” they do well, and their
ceiling.
Last Week: Two away losses, 1-2 at Minnesota and 0-2 at the
Red Bulls. Jalil Anibaba fucked up in both games, noted. Minnesota’s Darwin
Quintero taking the long way around the defense works as nice snapshot-seminar
on their defensive issues. That looked like a 4-way stop in Oregon. Very few
teams survive that, and rarely succeed for the long (begging the question…).
Next Week: They have a week off to see about getting that
shit straightened out, before traveling to Orlando. On current form, I wouldn’t
bet heavily on the Revs in that one.
4 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 6/7 (LA
went “IN”)
That stack of road games spells “DANGER” in neon, especially
after three straight losses.
Philadelphia Union - 24 points, 7-10-3 (5-4-2 home, 2-6-1
away), 26 gf, 33 ga (-7), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDWLLWLLWL (4-5-1 (2-4-0 home, 2-1-1
away), 18 gf, 19 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAHAHHAHAH
Record v IN Teams: 2-3-1
Record v OUT Teams: 2-2-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: I think they’ve evolved into
something elegant, that’s in the sense of over-elaborate and fragile.
Last Week: A 3-1 loss at home (shit!) to the Galaxy. Sure,
part of it’s LA getting better, but Philly was above the playoff line not so
long ago, and now they’re not. I caught stray comments about their defensive
frailty, and seeing them let Romain Alessandrini and Zlatan “talent-overload”
their right to score LA’s second goal (or even Ciani’s header), underlined that
with one fat fucking Sharpie.
Next Week: Away to Houston, midweek, I believe. My thought
is, what in the above would make you think Philly can win this? If this was
Houston on the road, maybe. Away, though? I’d be shocked.
6 home games remaining, 9 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/7
Their last six games feature teams that, between quality and
potential, can viciously turn results on a team that can’t handle it. The Union
does not look like they can handle it.
Chicago Fire - 23 points, 6-11-5 (4-6-2 home, 2-5-3 away), 34
gf, 43 ga (-9), 22 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LWDDDWLLLL (2-5-3 (3-2-1 home, 0-3-2
away), 17 gf, 22 ga
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHHAAHAHAH
Record v IN Teams: 1-4-1
Record v OUT Teams: 1-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: They beat bad teams, but lose to
just about any team that’s above them, and in any table. And, yep, time to amend
that…
Last Week: Chicago lost 1-2 to Toronto FC at home. Any team
that needs wins just can’t lose games like this. And losing on goals like this,
or even this?
Next Week: Raise your hand if you think the return leg for
this game will any better for Chicago. Anyone?
6 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/5
That IN/OUT split looks terrible. The best thing I can say
is that I think only 8 of the teams they play are nakedly better than them.
Orlando City SC - 22 points, 7-12-1 (5-4-1 home, 2-9-0 away),
29 gf, 45 ga (-16), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LLLLLLLLWL (1-9-0 (1-2-0 home, 0-7-0
away), 8 gf, 29 ga)
Last 10 Home/Away: AHAAAHAAHA
Record v IN Teams: 0-5-0
Record v OUT Teams: 1-4-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: The league punching-bag since way
back when…but are they punching back? Hmm….I think this still holds.
Last Week: It’s totally fair to say Orlando barely lost to
Columbus, in Columbus. The Crew rode the stats up pretty well against Orlando -
and that says something - but Orlando stayed in this and, from what I gather,
have some grievances. Orlando is fighting hard, and sometimes well. I’d keep
tabs on them, too.
Next Week: Games at home against NYCFC, then at the Galaxy, should give us all plenty to work with for Orlando's level. And, holy shit, is that a brutal week. Anything more than three points should flip perception on Orlando.
7 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/5
With Orlando in the state they’re in, I can only see walls.
For all that, they could turn spoiler under a new coach.
Toronto FC - 19 points, 5-11-4 (3-4-2 home, 2-7-2 away), 32
gf, 39 ga (-7), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LDWDLLLDLW (2-5-3 (0-2-1 home, 2-3-2
away), 19 gf, 19 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAAHAHAAAA
Record v IN Teams: 1-3-1
Record v OUT Teams: 1-2-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Two wins in their last 10 games -
and, amazingly, that still holds up (math is weird, people, even the simple
stuff). With their injuries getting closer to under control, Toronto might
stir, maybe even do something? What I do know is, no one thinks of them as “The
Champs” at this point. I mean, why would they?
Last Week: 2-1 win over Chicago, even away, doesn’t buy you
much real, useful currency. To name one highlight, Sebastian Giovinco looked
like old times (ah, 2016!), and that could turn Toronto into a problem,
certainly, but…a contender?
Next Week: It’s in exactly that context that Chicago in
Toronto is a must-win.
8 home games remaining, 6 road games; IN/OUT Split: 8/6
The road ahead…doesn’t get easier. There’s a lot of
intra-Conference IN opposition ahead.
DC United - 14 points, 3-8-5 (2-0-1 home, 1-8-4 away), 27
gf, 33 ga (-6), 16 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LLWDLDLDWL (2-5-3 (1-0-0 home, 1-5-3
away), 21 gf, 23 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AAAAAAAAHA
Record v IN Teams: 1-4-1
Record v OUT Teams: 1-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: The league’s goofiest wild card,
potentially - and now more potentially. They have more home games than they
have games in hand, and both Chicago and Orlando, maybe even Montreal [strike],
seem likely to slip.
Last Week: A 3-1 loss in Atlanta, but at least they scored
first. Look, I got on the DC bandwagon - just a bit, though, just sort of
willing it along - but this loss knocked a little dream out of my head. If you
can’t beat a good team at home, where is your season going to go, really? Making the
playoffs in MLS doesn’t mean shit. That’s a C.
Next Week: With home games against the Red Bulls, then the
Colorado Rapids, we’ll finally get some sense of what “DC United at home” means
in 2018. The Red Bulls aren’t invincible or anything, it’s just…Colorado,
though, that should be a good barometer for DC.
14 home games remaining, 4 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/8
Plenty of dragons swim within that IN/OUT split, but, again,
this team has played only two games at home. And they’ve got five games in
their back pocket.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
FC Dallas - 39 points, 11-3-6 (7-0-4 home, 4-3-2 away), 32
gf, 23 ga (+9), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWWWLWWLWD (7-2-1 (4-0-0 home, 3-2-2
away), 16 gf, 12 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AAHHAAHAHA
Record v IN Teams: 2-2-0
Record v OUT Teams: 5-0-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Still adjusting to life after Mauro Diaz, who that's going depends on who you ask. Still defensively sound, though, and that's building them a good pile of points.
Last Week: A 1-1 draw at Houston and, based on everything I
have in front of me, Dallas lost this game. More to the point, Roland Lamah
lost this game - one missed penalty kick and one…reasonable for a certain kind
of player, but Lamah can’t be that player, right?
Next Week: Sporting Kansas City away and, with that team
wacky as it’s been, God knows what to make of this one. I’d say Dallas’ body of
work over the last 10 games, backed by their defense, should give them the
edge. Or at least a result.
6 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 5/9
Soft as it looks and, honestly, I think Dallas looks good
for the Supporters’ Shield for it. Nothing between them and The Shield than two
mild choke points.
Los Angeles FC - 35 points, 10-5-5 (5-0-4 home, 5-5-1 away),
42 gf, 33 ga (+9), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LDLWWWDWDL (4-3-3 (3-0-2 home, 1-3-1
away), 20 gf, 17 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAAHHAHHA
Record v IN Teams: 2-2-1
Record v OUT Teams: 2-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Won’t lie. Rage clouds my
judgment here. I want to say Portland lost the U.S. Open Cup to a fraud, and
that leaves me overly-open to feasting on red herrings.
Last Week: Minnesota kicked the holy shit out of LAFC, and I
won’t deny that I liked it. And that 5th (fifth) Minnesota goal, that’s just dunking, only with a group of dudes.
Next Week: To give LAFC credit, they showed just this week
that they can turn around from a bad result - I’d argue that’s what they did
against Portland and, to put on my big boy pants, credit to them. They did
outplay Portland…I mean, who knows what’s pissing me off? They play the Galaxy
at home, btw. This is definitely a game to watch, or at least keep tabs on.
8 home games remaining, 6 road games. IN/OUT Split: 6/8
The time to pad their account is now; things turn to shit
(or just get hard) starting September 15.
Sporting Kansas City - 33 points, 9-5-6 (6-1-3 home, 3-4-3
away), 37 gf, 27 ga (+10), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WDDWDWLLDL (3-3-4 (2-0-2 home, 1-3-2
away), 16 gf, 15 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AAHHAHAAHA
Record v IN Teams: 1-2-2
Record v OUT Teams: 2-1-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: A bit of a mess right now, but
I’ve also heard talk of injuries.
Last Week: More nose picking. They could probably stand the
breather. Also, having just looked at their last line-up, that band-aid of a defense explains their recent staggers (no offense, guys! Band-aids a damned
solid brand!).
Next Week: Hosting Dallas, and they could have used an
easier team, but God writes this schedule, etc. A win would be a good sign;
names your own odds on this one.
7 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/7
Outside a soft patch from early August to…early-ish
September, they’ve got some walls to climb ahead, no question: LAFC twice, FC
Dallas twice, Portland once, etc.
Los Angeles Galaxy - 31 points, 9-7-4 (5-4-1 home, 4-3-3
away), 37 gf, 31 ga (+6), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWLDWDDWWW (6-1-3 (3-1-1 home, 3-0-2
away), 23 gf, 12 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHHAHAHHAA
Record v IN Teams: 4-1-1
Record v OUT Teams: 2-0-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Rising, look at goals
scored…climbing
Last Week: They beat Philly 3-1 in Philadelphia, and it’s
hard to resist over-hyping this result. The best phrasing I’ve come up to
describe…this is, “Another case of the difference of having difference-makers.”
Zlatan had two lethal moments in this game. Literally lethal.
Next Week: Even with both games at home, LAFC and Orlando
back-to-back won’t be easy - one because it won’t (LAFC), and the other because
tired legs versus guys playing for their careers.
7 home games remaining; 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 5/9
They have a soft landing, really. I think LAFC twice is
worst of it, and coming soon.
Portland Timbers - 31 points, 8-3-7 (5-0-3 home, 3-3-4
away), 28 gf, 24 ga (+4), 18 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWWDDDWWDD (5-0-5 (3-0-3 home, 2-0-2
away), 15 gf, 10 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAHHAAHAH
Record v IN Teams: 1-0-3
Record v OUT Teams: 4-0-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: I’ve been reading and dismissing
articles and/or weekly reviews that harangued on Portland’s habit of either
winning by one thin goal or drawing. This weekend, along with a couple weekends
past, that is catching up with them. Still unbeaten, and still tough as hell,
but this looks more like treading water with every draw.
Last Week: A 2-2 draw in Portland against Montreal. Went on about it here - specifically, faint whispers of a pending stall -but Portland
has games ahead that should help any good team out of the stall. I said, games ahead that should…
Next Week: Houston has more issues than the Timbers, and
Portland plays them at home. I can’t call this a must-win, but the time comes in
every season where “Houston at home” becomes the kind of game you have to win.
Houston likes to make the field big…watch for that. More later!
9 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/7
Most of it looks worse than this team on current form, but
how well RSL is playing toward the end could decide their season.
Real Salt Lake - 30 points, 9-9-3 (8-1-2 home, 1-8-1 away), 31
gf, 39 ga (-8), 21 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWWLDLWWLD (5-3-2 (4-0-1 home, 1-3-0
away), 17 gf, 14 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHHAHAHHAH
Record v IN Teams: 2-1-0
Record v OUT Teams: 3-2-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: A team with a decent amount of
talent, but also one that’s barely north of .500, and all that implies.
Last Week: They let the Colorado Rapids come back from 2-0
goals down in Utah. And, as pointed out by everyone, and above, with that road record? The box score suggests they played like themselves, but let the Rapids match them
in shots. Maybe that explains it?
Next Week: San Jose away and, at this point, San Jose anywhere is a must-win. Cock that up and they might fall out of the
playoffs…which would not be unjust.
6 home games remaining, 7 road games. IN/OUT Split: 6/7
They have a fairly easy stretch (no offense to…so many teams
and/or fan-bases) in which they can rack up some points, and they better do it
before the end because their last 5 won’t be easy.
Minnesota United FC - 28 points, 9-11-1 (8-3-1 home, 1-8-0
away), 33 gf, 40 ga (-7), 21 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: DWLLLWLWWW (5-4-1 (5-1-1 home, 0-3-0
away), 20 gf, 18 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAAHHAHHH
Record v IN Teams: 4-2-1
Record v OUT Teams: 1-2-0
Current Thumbnail Profile: Looking a little bit better,
obviously, especially after their best week ever. They’ve been bad to this
point, but they posted two legit wins this week, over (current) playoff teams.
Yeah, yeah, both at home, but…hold on….
Last Week: Minnesota might have got a little lucky in that
2-1 home win over New England (assist, New England), but the 5-1 pile-on over
LAFC?! Just…when did you ever think you’d here of Minnesota tearing apart the
league’s latest darlings, the money boys. Darwin Quintero keeps coming up and
that’s something to celebrate.
Next Week: At Vancouver, and this team hates the road enough that
it makes sense to downgrade expectations in a certain direction….but, if they
win that. Wow.
5 home games remaining; 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 8/5
Things just got a little less brutal for the Loons. Hard
games ahead, but the grabbed all six points and a bunch of goals against one
formerly and one fairly real team, respectively.
Houston Dynamo - 27 points, 7-6-6 (6-2-2 home, 1-4-4 away),
37 gf, 27 ga (+10), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: WWLLWLDWDD (4-3-3 (3-0-2 home, 1-3-1
away), 20 gf, 14 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAAHAHHAH
Record v IN Teams: 1-2-2
Record v OUT Teams: 3-1-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Another team that does very much
what it’s supposed to do against its lessers (e.g., the OUT teams), while too
rarely bother their betters (just once, NYCFC, and at home). Still, they score
and both of those goal differentials bear minding. Vancouver should be
sweating.
Last Week: They drew 1-1 at home against Dallas, but for the
Grace of Lamah (one more time!). Houston has been close enough to the top of scoring all season,
and I think that’s their only real chance to stay there.They’ll get their
goals, they just need more of them.
Next Week: Home to Philly at midweek, then away to Portland.
If nothing else, I’d say the last two games demonstrated that the Timbers can
be pulled apart. Chara should come back, and that should matter in this game.
Also, Houston likes to make the field big, and that’s harder to do in puny Providence
Park. Oh, and they should beat Philly, even with the quick turnaround. The
Union’s defense looks hella naïve.
7 home games remaining; 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 10/5
This team walks through the Shadow of the Valley of Deeath
mid-September, but at least they’ve got six of those games at home. This is one
of those games.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC - 26 points, 7-9-5 (4-2-4 home, 3-7-1
away), 30 gf, 42 ga (-12), 21 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: DDDWWLLWLL (3-4-3 (2-1-2 home, 1-3-1
away), 17 gf, 20 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAHAHAHHAA
Record v IN Teams: 0-2-2
Record v OUT Teams: 3-2-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Vancouver is neither
good nor pretty. They win enough to stay in touch and…ugh! They probably deserve
credit for that. Still, I wouldn’t bet on them against most USL teams.
Last Week: A 2-0 loss in Seattle, and the game ended well
before Efrain Juarez made it official by getting sent off. Seattle ran up the stats in this one, while
Vancouver racked up only a succession of yellow cards.
Next Week: They host Minnesota, and I can’t help but think
this feels like a must-win, a game they have to win, because who knows what’s
ahead. Again, I wouldn’t put money on it, not with Minnesota starting to think
they’re something.
7 home games remaining; 6 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/6
They’ll have to survive a couple clusters (Games 23-25 &
31-34) to stay in the playoff race.
Seattle Sounders FC - 20 points, 5-9-5 (3-4-2 home, 2-5-3
away), 18 gf, 23 ga (-5), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LLWLDLWDDW (3-4-3 (2-2-1 home, 1-2-2
away), 12 gf, 11 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HAHAHHAAAH
Record v IN Teams: 1-4-2
Record v OUT Teams: 2-0-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: Their defense keeps them in games
and, with their team getting closer to full strength (-Jordan Morris), they have
to start winning those games now. All of ‘em, good, bad, etc.
Last Week: They beat Vancouver in Seattle, and I can’t think
of a single reason why that wouldn’t have happened. Seeing Nicolas Lodeiro get
any of his mojo back has to hearten the weary and, yes, this is a deflection.
It wasn’t a pure victory, in other words, but Seattle can’t be picky right now.
Maybe later.
Next Week: They play San Jose away, then fly back to Seattle
to host NYCFC. I just tried to imagine Seattle losing to San Jose, and I couldn’t,
so I’d call that a barometer moment. It’ll be interesting to see how they handle
NYC. If they go after them - and hold their own doing it - that might shine a
different light on Seattle.
8 home games remaining, 5 road games. IN/OUT Split: 6/9
“I’d say they might go somewhere if they can pick up
majority of points in the next four.” Last was from last week, and they just picked up three points. Watch
this space.
Colorado Rapids - 17 points, 4-11-5 (3-5-3 home, 1-6-2
away), 24 gf, 34 ga (-10), 20 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: LLLDWWLLDD (2-5-3 (1-3-2 home, 1-2-1
away), 13 gf, 18 ga)
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: HHAHHAHAHA
Record v IN Teams: 1-2-1
Record v OUT Teams: 1-3-2
Current Thumbnail Profile: Neither home nor away is safe for
Rapids, and yet they can steal the odd point - just ask Vancouver. All the
same, their goal differential over the last 10 games spells doom. That’s
generally what happens when you can’t improve on one side of that equation. Better(?),
they were worse over their last 10 games, than their prior 8 games. I mean, had
they hit Orlando, like, three weeks later…
Last Week: They drew the Rapids in Colorado, and with an
equalizer that demonstrated why Edgar Castillo just might be their best player.
Nice goal by Dillon Serna too, who always has moments like that in him. All the
same, they can’t give up goals like they do, not until that attack gets
rolling.
Next Week: Away to DC and, at 13 points out of the playoffs,
it’d take a team with more momentum than this one to catch up to that gap. All
the same, I had a hoot watching the celebration after Serna’s goal. This team
is itching hard enough for positives to make them.
6 home games remaining, 8 road games. IN/OUT Split: 7/5
That said, their schedule has enough padding that, with a
good run, and the right results…nah, I’d be shocked. Ending on a high still
looks like their ceiling.
San Jose Earthquakes - 12 points, 2-11-6 (1-4-3 home, 1-7-3
away), 29 gf, 39 ga (-10), 19 GP
Last 10 Games, Results: DLLLLDDDLL 0-6-4 (0-2-2 home, 0-4-2
away), 14 gf, 22 ga
Last 10 Games, Home/Away: AHAAHHAHAA
Record v IN Teams: 0-2-3
Record v OUT Teams: 0-4-1
Current Thumbnail Profile: A team that loses or draws, home
and away, and without much reference for who they’re playing. Trending slightly
upward - e.g., three draws against mid-table equivalent teams (the Revs, RSL,
and LA). Tied for 4th best offense in West, and 2nd worst defense.
Last Week: Picking their nose, coming the rest of the way to
Jesus, whatever you want to call it, a much, much needed bye week for a team
that can only look to planning for respite in 2018.
Next Week: They host Seattle, then they host a…likely angry
RSL team. By the Gods of Odds, I’d like to think they can win one of those
games - and I wish them all the luck I’ve got left - but I’m guessing the Gods
are asking for some serious collateral for any win by San Jose.
9 home games remaining, 6 road games. IN/OUT Split: 9/6
The wall is coming. Games 25-32 would be tough for any team,
but for San Jose, it’s closer to insurmountable.
That concludes this tidal wave of information. And don’t you
worry, I’ll find a tasteful image for that. Until next week, or the next Portland
Timbers or FC Cincinnati game! (Can’t wait till I can project anger for two
teams in 2019!)
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