Houston Dynamo FC Scouting Report: The Wrong Kind of Sleeper

This would be badass. Also, not what we're getting.

Won’t lie, I’m dreading this one more than a little. And it has less to do with fear of losing – which, to be clear, is very much on the table – than trepidation about what I believe we’re all about to sit through. Starting with the raw data…

Houston Dynamo FC
0-3-2, 2 pts., 3 gf, 8 ga (-5); home 0-3-0, away 0-0-2
Last 5 Results: LLDLD
Strength/Location of Schedule
v FCD (1-2 L); v MIA (1-4 L); @ CLB (0-0 D); v RSL (1-2 L); @ SEA (0-0 D)

Notes from the Field
The fact Houston has yet to win seems relevant. On a more specific level, I see two types of games in Houston’s recent past: games against strong (or strong-ish) defensive teams – e.g., Columbus Crew SC and the Seattle Sounders, where they fire only about a half dozen shots - and games against…let’s call them more average teams – e.g., FC Dallas and Real Salt Lake, where they post more or less normal numbers and, you know, score goals (see links). For anyone who didn’t see that the Dynamo have scored just three goals this season, please direct (or, more properly, redirect) your attention to the above Information Box. In short, no one’s really lighting it up for Houston in 2025 – all three of those goals were scored by different players, each with different limitations (Amin Bassi, small; Nico Lodeiro, near retirement; Ezequiel Ponce, basic lack of support). Against that, don’t get too carried away with those eight goals allowed because Inter Miami CF scored half of them. Without those four goals out of the equation, Houston is a 1.0 goals against/game team. If you know the names of their starting central defenders, either seek help or admit you have a problem. I kid, I kid (also, I hereby admit I have a problem). Those players are fine, but I don’t think see them as the key to what makes the Dynamo a hard lock to pick. Credit for that goes to a full-team commitment to the fundamentals. Houston plays definitionally competent soccer and that does all kinds of good and useful things for them, up to and including making them hard to beat – and, against what the numbers tell you, creating genuinely high-percentage chances on goal, even if they don't produce so many. Or, in fewer words, Benny-Ball, baby.

I pulled more jokes than you'd believe.

Personnel
Ben Olsen (aka, the Immaculate Conceptor of Benny-Ball) likes the 4-3-3 this year (for example) and, with no disrespect to all the proud professionals who wear Houston Orange, he’s playing the hand he was given. I don’t think much separates Andrew Tarbell from Jimmy Maurer besides the injury that removed the former from the starting XI, so…moving on. Olsen has used the same back four over their past three games – (left to right) Griffin Dorsey (omg, what happens between him and Jimer Fory?), Ethan Bartlow, (the fairly impressive) Obafemi Awodesu (think he’s a rookie), and Franco Escobar – and I think his current first-choice three-man midfield includes (again, L to R) now-Houston promising youngster Jack McGlynn, the ever-reliable Artur, and Lodeiro. They provide better cover than you might expect, but, between Artur’s skill-set and Lodeiro being more suited to covering ground than attacking space, too much of the creative lift falls on McGlynn, who presents more as a strong attacking No. 8 than a No. 10. Reports have Houston close to signing a new/actual No. 10 (Ondrej Lingr; whom I, like you, know nothing about), but I can’t imagine he steps on the field this Sunday* and destroys the Timbers all on his lonesome. It sounds like McGlynn will be back on Sunday (fyi, dude can deliver a wicked free kick), so we’re back at the (apparent) original ceiling…which brings me to the front three. While I haven’t looked into it, I strongly suspect Houston has the smallest attack in MLS. Bassi and Sebastian Kowalczyk barely break mid-five-feet for height and Kowalczyk weighs as much as a jockey without the weights in their pockets. Ponce bulks it up a little, but pitting him and the Lollipop Guild (sorry!) against most MLS defenses is going about as well as one would expect. All of the above are at their best when they can get in a flow, and both Bassi and Kowalczyk can be tricky, but they’re more likely to outsmart a team than overrun them. But, again, I’d call team defense the brightest spot for the Dynamo and I’d call what they do “Badger Mode” – i.e., snapping at anything that comes closer to its jaw while keeping its backside covered.

What Does Portland Do About All of That?
Based on an hour’s worth of viewing, Houston likes time on the ball – something the Timbers prefer – while also defending in compact (if aggressive) defensive lines – something that absorbs transition moments like a sponge. Given Houston’s comfort with using the ball, I hope to see Portland use the press judicially (i.e, don't bank on it) and, on the defensive side, force the Dynamo to play through them with those pocket-sized players. In re their other big threat, Dorsey, I’m less concerned about crosses than seeing him get behind and pull the ball back to a late run, so, this being a home game and all, I feel good about letting Fory loose up the (Portland’s left) to see if he can’t defend Dorsey by keeping him busy. (Real doubtful that works, fwiw; Houston uses Dorsey in the attack enough to know how to cover his forays. Still, why not?) On the personnel side, I wouldn’t mind seeing the same players that started at Colorado – though the sooner the better on replacing Kamal Miller with any defender – and, I don’t know, was a 5-4-1 really the shape? Whatever happens, I want a minimum of four at the back and, if it can be arranged, more connection with Felipe Mora – who has felt lonely to the point of abandonment before and since the draw against the Galaxy. Maybe someone smarter can make a case for starting Kevin Kelsy – maybe this is an occasion for athleticism? – because getting in behind is all I can see for his best role and I haven't yet seen that as a vulnerability for Houston (if so, there’s always Antony). Overall, I think the Dynamo will let the Timbers play to a certain point on the field and see tough (AF) sledding from there. I expect the first team to score to win it and a goal-less draw if neither can break the deadlock. And if Houston runs up the score and it’s Bassi and Kowalczyk who does the damage, the match report will contain nothing but the words “I WAS WRONG” and a link to this post. With that in mind, let’s talk about what happens if the game does end with a goal-less draw…

Loose Notes on the Rest of the West
Someone finally scored on St. Louis CITY FC (Philadelphia), so that’s exciting, and the Vancouver Whitecaps aside – who, for anyone who hasn’t seen, lost to Chicago - no Western Conference team has separated from the pack so far. Four thin points separate second in the West (Austin FC; got them wrong too) from the twelfth (Seattle, ibid) and, looking at the match-ups for Match Day 6, I expect more teams to get drawn in (i.e., Vancouver will probably beat Toronto (who hasn’t?) and Dallas should beat Sporting KC (and on the same grounds), but most of the remaining ties look tight enough (e.g., Minnesota v RSL; San Diego v LAFC, San Jose hosting Seattle, St. Louis hosting Austin) that I expect to see more internal shifts than breakaways. A draw nudges Portland to eight points and that should keep them in touch with most teams. A win would be great, of course, and, on paper, Houston absolutely looks like a team Portland should beat…

…but all I can say for now is, we’ll see. Till we see what Sunday coughs up…