Wednesday, March 26, 2025

Nashville SC Scouting Report: Cincy's Third First Test of 2025

Walker Zimmerman, at pre-game meeting.
Over the weeks after it went up, Nashville SC seems to have made making me eat the somewhat dismissive Scouting Report I posted ahead of their Week 3 game against my Portland Timbers. They whooped the Timbers’ asses, of course, but some of the positives I flagged in my match report have come good. So, yeah, not totally useless. Let’s get into it…

Nashville SC
3-1-1, 10 pts., 8 gf, 3 ga (+5); home 2-0-1, away 1-1-0
Last Results: DLWWW
Strength/Location of Schedule
v NE (0-0 D); @ RBNY (0-2 L); v POR (2-0 W); @ PHI (3-1 W); v MTL (3-0 W)

Notes from the Field
In my defense, between their 2024 season and their first two games of 2025, Nashville didn’t give much reason to believe in them. Moreover, I don’t think anyone would have any reason to talk about them, never mind talk them up, if it weren’t for their cool as you like Week 4 win over the then-unbeaten Philadelphia Union. Three straight wins never looks bad, obviously, but beating Montreal doesn’t impresses anyone (their “loose slots” vibe sent Laurent Courtois to the unemployment line) and trust me when I say Portland is going through some shit - or was it the time (c'mon, lemme have it). Watching far too much of that Montreal game didn’t give me much you haven’t heard before – e.g., losing Walker Zimmerman in the area is bad, Nashville’s a strong defensive team, etc. – but the main takeaway there was Sam Surridge continuing a strong run of minutes that started with wreaking havoc against the Union. If Nashville can get the assist he teed up against Montreal and the goal he scored at Philly once even one-third as often, they’ll be better; Surridge becoming a reliable foil for Hany Mukhtar and Ahmed Qasem could take them all the way to competitive. The only other thing that jumped out over the 35+ minutes of that first half at Philly was how well Nashville handled one of MLS's better presses. They looked comfortable on the ball, both individually and as a team, and even pushed back after going up. The defense looked strong in both games (and versus Portland), but Zimmerman looking whole and imposing at the back tasks FC Cincinnati with battling the soccer equivalent of an ogre.

Personnel & Mechanics
B. J. Callaghan (also underestimated in the Scouting Report) appears to worship at the altar of the 4-3-3 and he keeps it pretty orthodox in terms of personnel. Early signs have (from left to right) Dan Lovitz, Jack Mahar, Zimmerman and Andy Najar in the back four – Najar goes forward more than Lovitz, but they both go, and Zimmerman hits ‘em long sometimes – and the middle three has reliably included the energetic pairing of Alex Muyl and Edvard Tagseth (again, endurance of a Kenyan marathoner), but I was intrigued to see the newly-acquired Gaston Brugman start over young Australian Patrick Yazbek. If I had to guess at a difference between them as starters (and I do), I’d go with puppy-dog energy over suavity/nuance. The preferred front three looks to be Qasem and Mukhtar lurking on either side of Surridge. They both play behind him, naturally, but Qasem (also young…damn) seems to have more positional responsibility than Mukhtar – who, surprise, surprise, ranges ‘cross the attacking third, looking for the game – and they use Surridge to push against the opposition backline; just to note it, I saw Surridge run at the defense, or through it, than playing with his back to it. So, yeah, definitely a transition vibe in how it works, but Nashville accomplishes much the same thing by hitting leading passes into space from possession. Defensively, they look more inclined to contain and manage an attack than disrupt it – i.e., the shape is strong and it has a brick wall for reinforcement. Oh, and Joe Willis is fine and he saved some big ones at Philadelphia.
 
This, but 24 and pretty athletic.
What Does Cincy Do About All of That?

Everything depends on the red wag…sorry, everything depends on who FC Cincinnati has available for starting central defenders – and, per what I’m now copyrighting as The Nick Hagglund Rule, for how long. The wisdom of playing calm patient soccer rises in direct proportion with whether Pat Noonan can start some combination of Gilberto Flores and Miles Robinson (can I haz Matt Miazga?); the internet (or at least the low-hanging stuff) only talks about the latter’s “mystery” injury and him missing the Atlanta game, so I got nuthin’, at time of writing, about Robinson’s status. If Cincy remains thin back there, they may want to defend higher to keep the pressure on the healthier midfield. Matching Nashville’s energy in midfield won’t come easy – they have an energetic bunch and, again, Hagseth plays like a possessed toddler (the hair/head combo makes him look like a six-year-old who might shave) – so expect that place to get cluttered and ugly. Playing around that scrum feels like a good idea, under the circumstances, so the attacking burden may fall more on Luca Orellano than Evander…speaking of whom, Noonan may want to give some thought to starting Evander as something closer to a true No. 10, because he does not provide much beyond a presence on the defensive side. Against that, I believe the Brazilian likes starting deeper in order to get a longer look at gaps in the opposition defense; I'm not even sure he can get into rhythm without carrying out of midfield, honestly. The frontline feels like the trickiest piece to me. I assume Kevin Denkey starts if he’s available, but I hope to see Cincy get Sergio Santos on earlier than they normally would if just to give Nashville another big (fast) body to manage. Just throw everything at the back line, maybe not so much to crack it as a loosen up space in front of it. I'm just spit-balling on the details, but I mainly want to see Cincy treat this game as a goddamn battle, a little territorial pissing against a team that, loathe as I am to admit it, looks like they may match up better than expected with the East’s better teams. Until further notice – and damn sure until they’re better than 10th in the East – FC Cincinnati has to prove they belong among them. That holds true, even with just three points separating 10th and 2nd in the East…

Loose Notes from the Rest of the East
Why is that on my mind? Because Charlotte FC keeps rolling, the Union recovered last weekend (if narrowly), and…gods help me for swallowing the hype, but Chicago Fire FC just picked up an impressive win and that built on a run that raises the Seventh-Seal-sized possibility that they may be capable in this cursed year called 2025. Surprises aside, both New York teams look stubborn as fuck, as does Columbus Crew SC, even if they can’t rise to competitive until they replace Cucho Hernandez, and Inter Miami CF is Inter Miami CF. The scariest thing I can say about FC Cincinnati’s prospects in MLS’s Eastern Conference right now is that there are six teams above them in the standings currently giving up one goal or fewer per game – and the Union has allowed just six goals in five games. Until the attack starts clicking – and, to be clear, I'm happy to see it click any goddamn way that works – I don’t see Cincy climbing all that quickly. Dropping those points versus Atlanta, man…

If I remember right, these two teams hate each other, so here’s to hoping the intensity gives this game the compelling edge because style points don’t feel like an option.

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