Wednesday, March 12, 2025

Los Angeles Galaxy Scouting Report: When Harry Met Anxiety

Mood.
I’d give my left…can’t actually think anything on the left side of my body that I’d willingly part with on this, but I really would like to feel better about this. Starting with the basics…

Los Angeles Galaxy
0-3-0, 0 pts., 1 gf, 7 ga (-6); home 0-2-0, away 0-1-0
Last Results: LLL
Strength/Location of Schedule
v SD (0-2 L); @ VAN (1-2 L); v STL (0-3)

The Portland Timbers host the Galaxy this weekend and I know how LA started this season and remember that they’ve lost at least five players that started MLS Cup 2024 (I say five because Puig counts in spirit). I also know the Timbers are one, narrow home win better than LA.

Disclosure: Prep for this scouting report included about 40 interspersed minutes of the Galaxy’s 0-3 loss versus St. Louis CITY FC last Sunday and, for something that (barely) tracked better, their 1-2 loss at the Vancouver Whitecaps FC the week before. To anyone who wants to go through it: the first half of the loss versus St. Louis felt like the closest analog to what I expect this Sunday. Even if they played a sorta janky XI in that one…then again, Greg Vanney has scrambled the formation every week so far.

The Big Picture
Between the big names lounging on the trainer’s table – e.g., Riqui Puig and Joseph Paintsil are the standouts – and a couple key starters dealt over the offseason – take your pick between Dejan Joveljic (poor fucker’s in KC) and Mark “Not Marky” Delgado – LA, again, aren’t the team that won the Cup last season. Still, Vanney relies on a core of players that includes: Maya Yoshida (surprisingly old), Carlos Garces (fast AF), and right fullback John Nelson (he’s fine) in defense; in midfield, there’s Edwin Cerrillo, with Diego Fagundez stepping in for cover (and playing time?) and he still has Gabriel Pec in or just behind the front line. The only consistent piece is the four-man back-line, with Nelson and the opposite fullback bombing forward. After that, it’s a lot of mix-‘n’-match. New free agent signing (right?) Christian Ramirez looks like the preferred starter and Marco Reus the early choice for creator. Ramirez looks like he’s finding his feet and, as for Reus, his brain’s still there (he made a run so clever against St. Louis it rose to eloquence), his body, whether by age or injury, can only do so much. Fagundez chips in – and I still rate him, crossing and firing from range – but a lot still falls on Pec, a genuine talent, but a young one.

The defense was…more or less fine, at least until St. Louis got them and, while Garces has some wising up to do (ask Yoshida), he can rescue his share of breakaways on his own. Cerrillo is a damn good No. 8, combative in defense, capable playing the ball forward, so there’s a supportive regular cast and all that, but, a third time, this isn’t 2024’s MLS Cup team for a reason. In the grand scheme, offense looks like their biggest weakness…so why the willies about Portland handling them?

Seriously, just don't.
Despite the thinner margin and having to find a winner, Vancouver pushed the Galaxy around all over (hold this thought) in a way that St. Louis didn’t try so much until the second half. The ‘Caps defended the entire field and it showed up in the Galaxy’s numbers; related, St. Louis punched a goal out of them when they defended higher: which, to circle back to the above parenthetical, would be relevant if Portland had competent press, or even high-line defending in their tool kit. And that brings me to the kicker: the Galaxy found some gilded chances during the time St. Louis allowed them to play, enough to let them post 2024 Galaxy numbers for the first time this season (see also, the highlights). And that’s the clammy fear bubbling under this post: the way the Timbers typically defend – a combination of passive and confused – will give the Galaxy 90+ minutes to get a rhythm going and, when they get a rhythm going they may score a goal, etc. Per the timeless wisdom of, If You Give a Pig a Pancake, that kind of thing can end really badly. This is my only actual fear…though, to be fair, the fact I can’t imagine the 2025 Timbers I’ve watched making the subtle inside pass that led to St. Louis’ second here lurks in the shadows behind it.

So…What Do the Timbers Do About All That?

Press, defend high; outwork, outrun, and otherwise overwhelm the Galaxy in literally any way that Phil Neville can cook up in the best possible lab and get the Timbers to buy into. I have literally nothing else. Even in the Vancouver game – and, to be clear, the Galaxy got stuffed, pinned, and otherwise flummoxed over and over in that game – they still put together wholly coherent attacking moves that would have come together, but for the grace of God and timely interventions from Vancouver players (the goal LA scored proved to be the exception to that rule, which provides comfort, of a kind). After that, I’d advise Phil to start the strongest defensive set he can think of – even if that means playing someone more fleet of foot than Zac McGraw, not least because LA didn’t present as a strong crossing team in anything I watched – and do the same in midfield. Think of it as playing it safe with a kamikaze mentality, and, no, you're the one not making sense.

Look, I would love to have more faith in the boys and…whatever system Neville has them playing and, hey, this could be the week and the Galaxy have the look of vulnerable team. What I I’d like to see more is the Timbers throw Plan A to the wind and just get on a visiting team as if nothing else matters more than the game their playing. A fighting win would go a long way.

That’s it for the scouting report, so let’s close this out with…

(Relevant) Notes from the Rest of the West
1) Story of the Week, No Question. Also, First Time Caller!
First, the Whitecaps kept their record pristine with a 2-0 win over the (somewhat merde-y) Club du Foot Montreal, then, they lose ginger (right?) talisman, Ryan Gauld for [this many] in the same game, then, they edge CF Monterey in the CONCACAF Champions’ Cup, like, literally tonight. That is a motherfucking week, people. My only note on this: valuable as Gauld is for the ‘Caps (“quite” seems appropriate), they have looked a bit like a “system team” for a while – i.e., the full-field defending is kinda the star. Having Gauld healthy makes them better a converting on their turnovers, but their team-defending makes them track as competitive so far.

2) Words of Wisdom (Source; it's in there)
“’Over the past two seasons, it is how strong we were on the defensive end that put us in the playoffs. That’s what we have to focus on now until we become a more well-oiled machine and relationships continue to build,’ said [Ben] Olsen postgame.”

“The offensive part will continue to grow, but when you look after each other, outwork the opponent and defend the box like we did tonight, that stuff goes a long way. We talked about an emotional and physical response coming out of the last two matches, and we got it tonight.”

Down to the American flag.
For what it’s worth, the first factor I confirm when deciding a team has a real shot at winning silverware is defense. That doesn’t apply to the current iteration of Houston Dynamo FC, who present as stiflingly incomplete right now, but Olsen’s not wrong about what puts a team into the playoffs. Minnesota has the right vibe so far, I still don’t trust anything I see from San Diego FC (that’s the name, right?), and St. Louis looks stubborn AF. Even with Houston struggling to score, I expect all these teams to rise to mid-conference and stay there. Think of them as that big glob of fat clogging New York’s sewers.

3) Some Strays
Sporting Kansas City looks actually bad, like they’re in a rut of some kind (perhaps Peter Vermes-shaped), I expect the San Jose Earthquakes to settle to the mean – probably because they’re San Jose – and I have loose, yet real doubts about Real Salt Lake and FC Dallas. Hurts to admit it, but the Seattle Sounders should be good in 2025, at least so long as they stay healthy (Pedro de la Vega doesn’t count yet; maybe ever), but the West still feels like a place where any team that sorts out one side of the game or the other – e.g., offense or defense - can rise...

…would that Portland looked to be one of those teams. Hey, nonny-nonny.

In closing, Saturday should be a winnable game, and I wish I felt better about that “should.”

5 comments:

  1. "...Saturday should be a winnable game..."
    Jeff, I'm now firmly in the camp of reasonable doubt about PTFC's prospects in 2025 - like Missouri I live in a state of SHOW ME, and in solidarity with every other Timbers fan: "Missouri Loves Company"....

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    1. The Nashville game really trimmed the sails, huh?

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    2. Wait...this just sunk in. If the Timbers have Bethany Rob doubting....oh, my.

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  2. Sigh - Yep.
    I'm a classic 'glass half full' guy, but the complete inability to even START to change or improve our defensive structure and off-ball movement is just too much for me.
    Adapt (quick) or die out is an immutable Law of Nature...

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  3. Jeff, this below is a pretty exact statement of where I've arrived at now... If you buy into "we have a pretty average MLS roster" based on $$ spent... the Law of Averages indicates this roster should have a 2 in 3 chance of having an average, or even above average record.
    Instead, the last 2 years we were below average, and the start this year still shows this team making no progress toward improving their 2-3 biggest on-field deficiencies.
    That points the finger directly at coaching and preparation. The young talent we're bringing in ARE NOT getting what they need, and that we should expect, from even average MLS-level coaching.

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