Portland Timbers 1-0 Real Salt Lake: Recalibrating Expectations

Did we expect too much too soon from Fernandez...?

To briefly walk through my stages of doubt and faith, real questions about what would happen started bubbling up around the 40th minute. By the 60th, I’d more or less resigned myself to the result going sideways and started preparing the proper language for recovery during times of struggle.

Curiously, it was around the 85th minute when I drafted the tweet I tapped into the ether at the fizzling middle of the 96th minute. Verbatim too. I believed the Portland Timbers would hold on around the 80th minute, and I was all but certain of it by the 85th. As such, this little flurry – as well as the red card that proceeded it (not the dumbest of the day, fwiw) – registered as glitches in the matrix, signs of danger from an alternate reality, as opposed to the one in which the Timbers beat Real Salt Lake 1-0 in Portland, because that was how the game was always going to end.

The thought came from a place beyond knowledge, like the future breaking the fourth wall and whispering, “it’s gonna be fine” in my ear. To be clear, this has nothing to do with clairvoyance; point in fact, I didn’t send that tweet in the 85th minute precisely because I worried about tickling the cosmos and jinxing the result. Still, the Timbers just seemed like they had it tonight – or maybe it’s that RSL didn’t – and, ugly and hairy as it was, they did. That’s three points, an edge over the (actually) surging Sporting Kansas City next weekend…and now we’re at the “real talk” place in this post.

First, this was a great goddamn win. I appreciate that might be hard to swallow for anyone who just watched…I mean, of course, I saw all the “what the fuck is happening tweets” around the 88th minute, not least because I floated one of them. All the same, the relentlessness of RSL’s press/attack was on full display tonight. They won every attacking category tonight and Deimar Kreilach alone must have had as many clear shots as Portland as a team; moreover, they had Portland pinned through the first 30 minutes of the second half, at a minimum, and they still had Joao Plata (basically effective) and Sam Johnson to bring on as substitutes; moreover again, they had a clear chance at the death.

And that’s my point: Steve Clark saved that shot (see, "this little flurry" above; plus a couple others earlier). Better – or more luckily; your call - a very make-shift Portland defense survived that attack and, for the most part, kept it from having too many clear chances. As noted, literally, throughout the broadcast, Diego Chara and Andres Flores did the grunt-work of chasing all of RSL’s myriad late runs into the area; they covered every defensive breakdown, generally – of which, there were – but every tackle and every covering run was a defining part of the inevitability of this win…

…and you’re aware this is the year they finally break Diego Chara? Surely you know that?

Before opening the cupboard that leads to the dark place (so cold), I’d also add this: both Marvin Loria and Renzo Zambrano positively impacted the game when?

Before opening the cupboard that leads to the dark place (so cold), I’d also add this: both Marvin Loria and Renzo Zambrano positively impacted the game when they came on. Sure, Zambrano got that stupid red, but both he and Loria (after a stumble of his own) gave Portland new life after they came on. Having players who can come off the bench and change a game is a good sign going forward. Right?

OK. Let’s open that cupboard.

That Defense and the Path to Glory
Claude Dielna makes an astonishing number of misreads for a professional/French center-back. I still like Bill Tuiloma, but he’s not enough to cover for Dielna’s disconnection/incompetence. Best case, that partnership gets better with time. Better case, Larrys Mabiala gets well tomorrow and he and Tuiloma can get back to locking down the space in front of Steve Clark’s goal. In the here and now – and this is the main take-away – I don’t see a Dielna/Tuiloma partnership carrying the Timbers into the post-season, never mind deep into it.

50/50
That's where I put Jorge Moreira's general rate of success. That dude requires a damn seat belt.

Clumsy, Expensive Feet
I am not, by any stretch of the imagination, calling Brian Fernandez a failure. Sure, he’s got a problem with running offside, but so do a lot of good strikers. That said, for the last couple games, the ball has been at Fernandez’s feet when a play died; either his touch is heavy, his timing out of sync, or he’s searching, searching, searching(!) for that opening on goal: bottom line, either teams have figured him out, or, more likely, Portland, as a team, is still trying to. The combination of the money spent on him and the ten goals he scored since coming on in May probably set fans’ expectations to something like messianic. It’s gonna take time to figure out how to get the most out of Fernandez in a Portland uniform. I know I lost sight of that amidst the excitement, but a player doesn’t do something great in every game just because he cost a lot of money.

As for the larger question, the question of starting him up top versus on the wing, I haven’t seen “wing” technique from Fernandez at this point; his close control isn’t there, and his passing has been, at times, pretty damn imprecise. Again, he got here in May. Players need time when they move. And, point in fact, he and Valeri pulled off some fun shit out there tonight. Speaking of time…

A Window Is Closing
That wasn’t just a great goal by Diego Valeri tonight, it was a classic of the vintage Timbers “you’re-giving-me-that-shot?” genre. A few minutes later, though, Valeri passed the ball straight out of bounds; he tackled (I think) Kreilach from behind because he just couldn’t keep up. Valeri is still capable of great things – e.g., before the goal, he carved open RSL’s right channel with one pass – but he simply is not a week-to-week, 90-minute player anymore. Or, if he is, he’s can’t be in a role where he has to defend too much. The deeper issue is that there isn’t much time left when thinking about how Valeri works with Fernandez makes much sense. It'll have to be someone else soon.

Then There’s the Other Window
Sebastian Blanco has looked fatigued for weeks. For all the moments he had tonight (including defensively), his game just doesn’t look entirely locked in right now. I’m more convinced than I’ve been for the past month that Blanco needs rest. Tie him to a fucking chair if you have to. Sit him for a game, then strategically plan another for a couple weeks later. If he’s not fully present for the playoff push, I don’t think the Timbers go anywhere meaningful.

And I guess that’s where this one closes. From July and into August, it became possible to believe that Portland would roll into the 2019 playoffs. I don’t that holds anymore. On the other hand, they’re still a good team…just one that happens to be surrounded by other, also good teams. The Western Conference is a fucking nightmare right now, eight teams competing for six playoff spots, some of them hoping to not slip out (maybe, Seattle, Minnesota and Dallas), and others hoping they’ll hold their shit together long enough to leap-frog any slackers (Portland and SKC).

All the above points to how and where I think Portland might fall short – in order of concern: 1) injuries in the defense; 2) key players aging; 3) another player not coming fully on-line quickly enough (and I do think that’s what this is) – and I kind of question what’s left of the optimism. I think the formula/personnel combo Portland had was more fragile than I understood, anyway.

I don’t see a lot of relief in Portland’s schedule going forward and, frankly, if you’re looking for that, what can you really expect from the post-season? The Portland Timbers can go in a number of directions from here: maybe they rest players here and there down the stretch and take solid, short performances from Loria and Zambrano(*) as proof they can rest key players; maybe they just play for the first goal going forward and grind out results as they did tonight (and against a good attacking team); maybe they collapse and die while, say, a re-energized SKC leaps over them or into the post-season.

There’s everything left to play for. The main thing I’m rooting for right now is Mabiala and Paredes healing for the real stretch run. I’m not saying Portland is dead if that doesn’t happen, I’m just saying I like their odds better. All for now…