MLS Weakly, Week 23: Late, Late Goals and a Lot of (Pointless) Draws

Have at you! (also, thanks, 200353484!)

I gave up watching FC Cincinnati for this? A dogpile of draws, some of them lightly rancid, and what can be described as status quo ante, a collective holding of serve, or, more bluntly, at best a thimble-full more than a whole lot of nothing. Pfft.

That’s not to say I didn’t cheat: once I saw that Cincy and Inter Miami CF combined for the second eight-goal game/draw in MLS Week 23 – my Portland Timbers and Minnesota United FC had the other one (and here are my long form notes on that one) - I used that as an excuse to take a longer look at how a second oddball game happened in one midsummer weekend.

Both games required some coach-breaking defending in order to reach their final, 4-4 scores. I saw a headline where Miami coach Phil Neville accused his team of defending like “toddlers” or “children” (don’t know, didn’t read it), but, also, can confirm. Miami, in particular, pushed the “bend-don’t-break” concept to its limits and all over their defensive half; they didn’t defend so much as take up positions and wait for a turnover. That said, the game featured some lovely goals: the sometimes-maligned, oft-subbed Gonzalo Higuain bagged a first-half hat-trick for Miami (his free-kick was dynamite in inverse proportion to Cincy’s wall being gappy shit, but his run/finish of Alejandro Pozeulo’s feed for Miami's second was something), while Brenner started and finished Cincy’s first goal and Alvaro dimed a cross to Brandon Vazquez for what should have been a game-winner for Cincinnati. It was a tragedy to see Cincy’s legs desert them on Miami’s late, late equalizer, but credit to Miami generally and congrats to Christopher McVey for coming back from the dead to score it (seriously, kid looked like he could barely jog five minutes prior).

Imagine all that running and scoring and having it amount to so little. Cincinnati are factually having their best-ever season and they’re still above the playoff line, but they haven’t won a goddamn game since late June. Having suffered through (most of) three seasons (I got bored toward the end of 2021, but also missed nothing but pain), I know Cincy has never had a better team - Vazquez has been a revelation and, with the way Barreal’s come around, having him on the field with Luciano Acosta and with Brenner killing it as something close to a false-9 they can, as I like to say, fuck up a team – and yet. And yet. 1-1-7 in their last nine games. Wish I was making that up. Half-alive, half-dead.

And that whole “running-through-mud” theme expands nicely and fairly to MLS Week 23. A weekend stuffed with mid-table clashes and chances for mid-table teams to strut their stuff against either presently or historically weaker opposition, i.e., games crying out for a result, and with most teams moving like pawns in chess: one step at a time and toward uncertain outcomes.

Minnesota United FC 4-4 Portland Timbers: Rose-Colored Shades, Baby....

Yes, and that sunset.

Despite its loin-stirring grandiosity, I have no grand analysis to share about the Portland Timbers 4-4 road brawl early today at Minnesota United FC. I mean, what’s there to say about a demolition derby besides “a bunch of shit ran into another bunch of shit”? And yet I, like nature, find a way...

To answer the obvious question – i.e., did I lose faith? – of course I did. What other response can one have to seeing your team’s defense take two wet shits on an already-soiled mattress? Apologies for the crudeness of the metaphor – and I hope the sub-text that Minnesota’s first goal didn’t bother me nearly as much as the other two – but I started the outline of another yes-I-am-nervous post immediately after the halftime whistle blew. Also, as evidenced by a tweet floated into public domain early in the second half (see my game thread), I didn’t feel much better until Sebastian Blanco scored his second goal of the match – from open play too – which brings me to the only real take-away I have from this game.

Nothing has my bowels bounded up all season like the Timbers inability to score. Given that, seeing them score four goals – and seeing Blanco, of all the players on the roster, come alive? – there’s nothing to call both things but what I’ve been waiting for since First Kick and and/or that live-broadcast de-pantsing of Sporting Kansas City earlier in the season. Having that to look at helps me look past all kinds of flaws, which helped because Portland had plenty tonight. That said, and on a very fundamental level, all it takes for me to believe the Timbers can go somewhere in any given season is a reliable path to goal. And, if I’m being honest, a semi-reliable path to goal carries me a couple steps closer to interested. Now come the caveats. Because of course I have caveats.

Only two observations from my preview post for this game came through: 1) that the Loons, much like the Timbers, are at their best on the break, and 2) that they haven’t been all the way present lately. I didn’t expect the latter to come good as early as it did, but that paled against Minnesota’s defensive collapse over the first 20 minutes of the second half. Few soccer-writing cliches get the ready pass that “a tale of two halves” gets, but I don’t know that anyone has adequately explained the why/how the fuck of a team dominating one half (as Minnesota did in the first half) and then nodding off in a way that would make Sleeping Beauty say, “damn” in the second. How does that switch go off, and is there someone we can pay to make that happen in every Timbers game that happens between now and the end of my life and/or when I lose interest?

Minnesota v Portland Preview: Loons Attack (in a Variety of Ways)

My understanding of the Loons' attack, a visual.

Things have been good for the Loons lately...but have they been too easy?

Maybe? Arguably? But I’d think twice before hanging my hat on it. To start with the basics:

Minnesota United FC
Record/Basics: 10-8-4, 5-3-3- home, 5-5-1 away; 31 gf, 26 fa, + 5 goal differential
Last 10: WLLLWWWTWW (6-3-1, 2-0-2 home, 4-2-0 away; pretty damn easy on that last 5)
Oppo: @ FCD, v NYC, @ NE, @ MIA, @ LAG, v RSL, @ VAN, v SKC, v DC, @ HOU

What We Know About Them
Emmanuel “Bebe” Reynoso & The Loons, right, like one of those bands that vanishes behind a charismatic lead singer? It’s a little more than that, obviously, but Minnesota’s No. 10 tends to dominate conversations about the team – especially when they’re doing well. While that’s not wholly unjustified (I’ll get into it, or at least a theory of “it”), I also think of a Minnesota as a stubborn, pain-in-the-ass of a team, but also one that has legitimately competed over two of the past three seasons. Some famous names from even those past good teams have moved on – e.g., Jan Gregus, Ozzie Alonso, Christian Ramirez and Miguel Ibarra – but, some real mysteries aside, the replacements are doing better than fine (see above and, for Portland fans, look higher in the table). The Timbers are rolling in against a team with five wins in their past six games – even if said run got a boost from a combination of venue and opposition. Going the other way, they did an impressive amount of that good work on the road, something worth estimating in my mind.

To the surprise of no one, Reynoso leads them in every top-line attacking stat, but he gets good support from Finnish international, Robin Lod (6 g, 2a), and, so far as I know, regular soccer player Luis Amarilla (5g, 3a). They have a solid ‘keeper at the back in Canadian international Dane St. Clair, and Michael Boxall still leads a bruising defense. No less remarkably, they’ve sustained that run of form without more current notables like Romain Metanaire and (the talented, yet hard-to-place) Hassani Dotson.

FC Cincinnati 1-1 Nashville SC: On Forgetting What It's Like to Feel

This, only drooling to stay interested.

I don’t have a lot of say about FC Cincinnati’s 1-1 draw at TQL Stadium against Nashville SC, because what is there to say about more of the same? Cincy has now drawn six of their past eight game, enough to keep them alive, but too little to take them in a direction of any particular interest. The point kept them above the playoff line, and that’s nice, but they owe that somewhat to Charlotte’s surprise/loud choke at Toronto FC. Also, look who’s looming in the rearview (Chicago Fire FC; and to think I wrote them off just last Friday.)

Twenty-four hours passed between the time I half-watched the second half and the time just spent struggling to stay awake/interested and the main thing I want at this point is those 50 minutes back. The more I look at the xG lines the data-nerds traced onto the stats page, the more I wonder whether I’m clear on how those things work...and, I’ll be damned if that isn’t the last interesting thing I have to say.

Several Cincinnati players had good-to-great games – e.g., I continue to marvel at Obinna Nwobodo’s range, movement and soccer intelligence (man has Spider-sense, swear to gods), Ian Murphy should start so long as he’s fit, at least in my mind, and Brandon Vazquez scored another great goal and he’s already three goals above what would have made me happy (what? oh yeah, Nashville scored too...eh). A couple players didn’t do so hot – e.g., I have nothing but respect for Yuya Kubo, but he still holds the ball too damn long; I feel the same about Alvaro Barreal, he got a lucky, yet useful assist, but that doesn’t mean there’s a No. 10 shirt in his future – but that’s the game.

Cincy has...eleven games left (? that can’t be right, but I’ve counted three times and...fuck it; it’ll happen) to find another gear. A tough stretch of the season that started as somewhat inspirational – see the 1-1 draw at the Philadelphia Union and the 4-4 home draw/party versus New York City FC petered out into home draws versus Red Bull New York and (most of) the Vancouver Whitecaps and....pffft. After that, what else do you say? It’s not progress, it’s not failure; it’s stasis.

Portland Timbers 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes: Dairon = Rocky

Eye of the Tiger. Also, wrong movie.

At some long-forgotten point during my long career of amateur commentating soccer career, I had an over-fondness for boxing metaphors. With that, let’s dip into the ol’ well once more...

Everyone who has seen even one Rocky movie knows one thing: the more often he gets punched in the head/face area, the better he fights. It might have happened in one movie, it might have happened in all of them, but I distinctly remember a sequence (or five) where Rocky barked something like “is that all you got? hit me harder” (think he said that to both Clubber Lang and Drako), and, as Rocky’s corner started to panic (though not Burgess Meredith, he died during Rocky II, I think), Pauly always said, “no, no, he’s getting madder,” or something like that. And that's how Rocky won the Cold War.

Rocky got punched in the head a whole bunch of fucking times tonight – the official stats counted seven times on target – and All That Jazz Ivacic parried them all away, one of them at dead-cert equalizer by the most active/dangerous player in the San Jose Earthquakes’ line-up, Cristian Espinoza (who, honestly, should take a bow; helluva game, sir; also, The Mothership stiffed us on stand-alone clips, but the highlights would be derelict if they didn't have a few of Ivacic's finest). That “hair-of-their-chinny-chin-chin” madness was more feature the bug in the Portland Timbers 2-1 win over San Jose. And, seeing that I begged for a win, I’m not going to scrutinize it overly...despite this being the same San Jose team I semi-officially wrote off (if halfway) in something I posted just this past Friday, and despite a record of failure that goes back to 1980-fucking-2, aka, when I was a bone-thin knee-high instead of the corpulent gentleman I’ve grown into today...

...deep breath...because that’s all I take these days. And, holy shit, where to begin?

As noted early in my game-thread for the match, San Jose came out nearly as hungry as Dairon Asprilla. After an opening 10 minutes where the teams seemed to punch even, San Jose clawed their way to higher ground and, for too much of the first half, tilted the field toward the Timbers goal. My sparse notes for the first half included phrases like, “SJ clearly not intimidated” and “POR D posture a bit low early,” and I feel like both of those held up pretty well. Whatever anyone thought of each of them, a succession of yellow cards to Portland players – Josecarlos Van Rankin (39th minute/deserved); Yimmi Chara (40th minute/richly-deserved) and Claudio Bravo (41; full disclosure, I didn’t see that one, so I’m not judging its validity) – pinpoints the moment of peak out-of-fucking-control for the Timbers. I think San Jose scored off the free-kick Bravo handed them (don’t honestly recall what I was doing), but, again, who set up the goal that bobbled its way to where Benjamin Kikanovic had nothing to do but stab it into an empty goal? Yep, Espinoza. Related, Ivacic deserved better from that bobble...

MLS at 20 (or Thereabouts): Looking Back, Ahead, and Up and Down

He's not sure what he's seeing either.

Going into the June international break, I posted a State-of-the-League behemoth, which amounted to an update of a preview post I put up when Major League Soccer kicked off the 2022 season. On June 10 – i.e., just before the league picked up again after the June break - I followed that up with a pretty damn sloppy post (if structurally spot-on; that was Plan A all along!) that previewed the next five games for all the teams across MLS.

This post will pull notes from those, and look forward to the future with two thoughts in mind: 1) showing what I got and what I missed – which I see as a proxy for the relevant teams actually being what they looked like; and 2) reassessing, oh, everything now that we’ve got 20 games with which to work, my grand pronouncements should stand on a steadier soapbox – and I’ve organized the teams below on that firmer ground. The ranking system should ring a couple bells – e.g., “Contender,” “Playoff-Caliber,” “Margin Walkers,” and “Fodder” – but, again, it’s projection, something that most people should know well enough through everything between weather forecasting more than, oh, three days out. Bring an umbrella and warm clothes, basically, and trust no one and nothing.

Wrapping up the preamble, I thought I’d give quick definitions for each category:

Contenders: Teams that have done consistently well all season.

Playoff Caliber: Teams I can’t see slipping under the playoff line in the next five games…but never say never.

Margin Walkers: Teams I can see falling out of, or climbing into the playoffs over the next five games and for any reason whatsoever.

Fodder: Teams that have done consistently poorly all season, some of whom have been thinking about next season for the past several seasons.

That’s everything. As you’ll see, the “Margin Walker” category is the chunkiest. I explain the calls where I feel like I need to. And…we’re off….

Portland Timbers 1-1 Vancouver Whitecaps: Plan Fucking A, Forever and Always

Portland's attacking tactics, a visual.

I’ll start with two thoughts. First, the fan-base grumpiness about this result, if just in my corner of twitter, is top-notch. Second, I’ve typed some version of “this won’t take long” 400+ times, but I’m pretty damn confident that the sum of what I just watched will help me deliver on that promise.

The Portland Timbers 1-1 home draw against the Vancouver Whitecaps fulfilled every expectation/failure laid out in my preview, if with the lonely exception that Vancouver pressed a bit around the 20th minute of the first half. Otherwise, that now-cursed thing functioned as a script, only absent the inspiration. Vancouver lined up the way I expected them to, they mostly defended as expected, they got a goal off a cross to the back-post (if the opposite of the one I expected; also, the failure was decidedly complex); the Timbers attack, meanwhile, did everything I hoped they wouldn’t, as in they literally checked every goddamn box. And that, ladies and gents, is the alpha, the omega, and the answer to every question except why this game didn’t end 1-0 in Vancouver’s favor.

To stick up for the kids who get a gold star for today, I thought Santiago Moreno, Larrys Mabiala, Aljaz Ivacic, and Claudio Bravo all had decent games – if mainly on the attacking side in Bravo’s case, and the man clearly has a day-job to which he does not always attend. I’m willing to give honorable mention to Dario Zuparic and Diego Chara generally, Cristhian Paredes here and there, and Yimmi Chara early in the game, but, collectively, that was 90-minutes of muscles twitching to pulses of electricity delivered with all the subtlety of a 12-year-old mashing buttons on Mortal Combat. Both teams made chances out of their moments of coherence – and, loathe as I am to say it, though the stats do back it up a bit (see shots on goal), Vancouver managed more than the Timbers – but that game delivered a bounty of bad soccer on all sides of those moments. Felt like watching MLS in the 2000s, and in all the wrong ways.

To his credit, Ivacic cleaned up most of the messes Portland’s defense left him – most critically, his two early saves in the first half – but the Timbers defense had a generally respectable night. For the...how many games have the Timbers played so far? 21? – call it the 11th time this season (this includes every game the Timbers allowed one or fewer goals), Portland’s defense did enough. And so, for the...huh, 13th time this season, I’ll close this very short post with a rant about the Timbers “attack.”

Portland Timbers v Vancouver Whitecaps: Remedies for Constipation?

Contemplating approach play with unseen obstacles

For all the moments of respectability, it is still totally fair to call the Whitecaps Cascadia’s fifth wheel. And yet with Vancouver one thin point behind Portland in the standings, that’ll be cold comfort if the Timbers can’t get ‘er done. Now, the numbers:

Vancouver Whitecaps
Record/Basics: 7-9-4, 25 points; 5-2-3 home, 2-7-1 away; 22 gf, 33 ga, -11 differential
Last 10: WLWWLWTWLT (5-3-2, 2-2-1 on road; in all, a pretty vigorous work-out)
Oppo: v FCD, @ CLT, @ SKC, @ RSL, @ SEA, @ FCD, v NE, v LAFC, v MIN, @ CIN

What We Know About Them
When it comes to Vancouver, I suspect most people know a couple names – e.g., Ryan Gauld, Lucas Cavallini, Maxime Crepeau...who now plays for LAFC – plus some deeper cuts like Cristian Dajome, Russell “Terrier” Teibert and Jake Nerwinski. They’ve freshened the line-up with some familiar names – e.g., Cody Cropper (out for terrifying injury), Tristan Blackmon, Florian Jungwirth – while swinging for some bigger signings like Pedro Vite (who is not, so far, a 90 minute player) and, their flashiest, newest signing, Andres Cubas. They’ve also developed a habit for going on late runs over the past couple seasons and, on their recent record - i.e., 15 points from 30, with six games on the road, and against solid competition (all but two of the last 10 teams they played are over the playoff line, the rest are near it) – one could argue they’re on one again.

Their stats leaders include the usual suspects: Cavallini (6g, 3a), Gauld (3g/3a, who’s still having a bit of an off-season), Dajome (2g/3a, real threat off dribble), and Ryan Raposo (2g/2a).

Notes on Recent Form
They’ve won some big ones lately – e.g., a home win over LAFC and away to Dallas (related, they seem to have Dallas’s number, along with SKC’s) – and, after a disastrous start, many of their positive road results have come in recent weeks. On the video/scouting side, it’s possible I caught them at their worst in all the tape I reviewed: injuries/various absences forced them to make due with a heavily-rotated squad at FC Cincinnati, which led to disjointed play and early defensive breakdowns (and yet they managed), and they fell into a gentle slumber in a 1-3 loss at home to Minnesota after losing some key players at half-time (e.g., Cubas, who looks really good, fwiw, and Godinho) and the visitors turning up the pressure.

FC Cincinnati 2-2 Vancouver Whitecaps: It's Time to Fly, Little Chickadee

I'm going to need you to flap those wings like you mean it.

First, I want to applaud The Bailey for chanting “Cody Cropper” after Vancouver’s goalkeeper went down after a, frankly, terrifying foul. That’s class, no further comment. Now, about that game...

To expand on a phrase I typed throughout 2022, “there are no moral victories.” There comes a time when a team (say, FC Cincinnati) kicks off three seasons on training wheels (this was on a busted-down trike inherited from an eccentric grandparent) and builds a certain amount of expectation. They leave the nest, wings spread, out in the world and...that’s just it: they keep flying or they fall back to the ground.

It’s in that full, little chickadee in the big city sense that I view Cincinnati’s 2-2 home draw against the Vancouver Whitecaps as a bad result. Worse, the goal that pulled the ‘Caps level was a two-fire-alarm fucking disaster; as a (side-piece) fan, I’m angry that Cincy’s last line of defenders didn’t direct more anger at the midfielders and/or Tyler Blackett, all of whom fell so far behind the play and didn’t look all that interest in catching up. That left Toisant Ricketts with at least two wide-the-fuck-open players to pass to inside Cincinnati’s 18 and, in a game where the imperative to “leave it all on the field” was sharp and urgent, they did not. There is no universe in which that is not the worst, defining moment of the game.

On a meat-‘n’-potatoes level, I don’t think Cincinnati deserved to win this game – that’s despite having quality chances to get all three points (they posted a win-worthy number of shots, and with enough on goal.) Debutante Sergio Santos had two good-to-great looks – including one that any eager fan would love to see a new signing put away (e.g., the one shot with his feet) – Obinna Nwobodo had a non-crazy shot from range, Alvaro Barreal forced a good save out of 20-year-old substitute ‘keeper, Ian(?) Boehmer (and that’s on top of attempting an olimpico on every corner), and so on. Cincinnati had chances to put a little padding between them and a Vancouver comeback, They never managed to pull it off leaving Vancouver free to walk through a door they left open, and end of game

 It hardly helped that a fair number of Cincy players had off nights. That happens, obviously, but eve accounting for key absences and injuries (to name the bigs, Luciano Acosta, Junior Moreno, and, circumstantially, Alvas Powell....Ronald Matarrita’s been out long enough that losing him amounts to losing an arm – i.e., that’s just something one adjusts to), Cincinnati didn’t have anything to overcome Vancouver didn’t (Cincy’s broadcast team would not let this go, btw), and it shaped the game in...a way. Nwobodo was loose on the ball in a way that led to too many turnovers, Blackett’s passing out of the back ranged from dubious to bad, John Nelson failed to add much in the attack and Raymon Gaddis...every player makes mistakes, and fatal ones come with defending. Had Gaddis done everything else all right, you can still salute the outing...but he did not. Basically, the combined team put out enough collective “bad” for Cincinnati to drop two points last night and can I get a “goddammit” on that?

Seattle Sounders 0-3 Portland Timbers: Fun! (And Pointless Anxiety!)

First, so, SO good.

Tonight’s challenge is to walk the line between celebrating a good, useful, comedy-rich win and acknowledging that, despite the 3-0 score-line, the Portland Timbers didn’t play a great game. They may not have even played a good one.

Going the other way, I see not just free money in my bank account, but a fall-down fucking hysterical situation where Mike Penso waves off a penalty shout for a trip on Nico Lodeiro that 90% of the world agrees he should give, only to reward the Timbers with an equally obvious call (something like) 40-45 minutes later for a handball just inside the area, and only after video review. Maybe the whole CCL banner stunt felt tacky to Penso too...

Because I’m about to grind a couple personal axes, I want to make a couple things very clear. First, I genuinely enjoyed the win. If nothing else, it’s exciting, i.e., a dramatic pratfall in the middle of Seattle’s presumed stroll to the throne that so many people (including me) expect them to make. Everything down to the start of the game worked toward setting up that narrative; Seattle even had one of their typical flurries around the 17th-19th minutes, one of those periods where they got off two quality shots out of a period of sustained pressure. Related thereto, and more than a little fortunate, Aljaz Ivacic completely missed both shots; he didn’t see Raul Ruidiaz’s shot till it bonked off his head and bravo, Claudio Bravo, for clearing the ball off the line on the other, but ain’t that soccer, sometimes? (Surely, you get all or some of that in here?) Isn’t that why they call it the blues?

For what it’s worth, I don’t think the game only really turned when Seattle’s Jackson Ragen got sent off for a wild-ass foul on Eryk Williamson, like, stupid early in the second half. Sure, Portland scored a go-ahead goal out of three passes and Jaroslaw Niezgoda’s ass at the 24th minute – also, hold this thought, because I’m obsessing – but I didn’t feel the weight of resignation among Seattle's players until after Ragen’s dismissal. As much as Portland’s opener put Seattle on their heels, they played as if someone had set their game-plan on fire and waggled it in front of them (while doing some really uncomfortable, faux-erotic dance) after the Ragen’s second yellow. From that point forward, some vague sense of not knowing what to do next weighed on their every step and every pass.

Basically, as good as the goal felt (very! thanks!), it didn’t take too much to imagine how Seattle would get back into the game at the half-time whistle. Five minutes after that red card, I straight up knew they had too much doubt in their heads to get anything better than the draw. Part of me thinks Brian Schmetzer chased his charges onto the field after burning the thought “put your stamp on the game” into their heads. When Ragen did, the wheels spun off.

FC Cincinnati 1-1 Red Bull New York: When Constellations Are Just Random, Useless Dots

Having the technology doesn't make using it right...

This won’t take long. I’m trying to get two of these things in tonight...

If I had to choose one way to explain FC Cincinnati’s 1-1 home draw to Red Bull New York, I’d go with the passing accuracy and total passes numbers, plus a pair of passing maps that look like constellations. The Red Bulls do best when they can force the opposition to play their game – particularly the part about forever pushing the ball forward, and with all the frustrated constipation of trying to make a turducken out of a set of badly-matched birds. Cincinnati had all of....I’m calling it about 25 minutes’ worth of impetus in that game in total; the rest of it was just 10 mammals reacting to stimuli. Solid game by Roman Celentano, by the way....

To lay my cards on the table, I’m a little pissy about this draw and mostly because I’m fairly convinced it didn’t have to be this way.

J. R. R. Tolkein getting the penalty call in the 28th-minute didn’t hurt, obviously, and, I don’t care how lonely this hill is, I would never have called that as a penalty. Raymon Gaddis clearly played the ball, one that hung in the air like a slow-pitched softball and, if he kicked J. R. R. in mid-flight, I mean, haven’t we all wanted to do that, if only for the terrible dialogue and dwarf songs alone?

Call that a long, digressive way of saying, I wouldn’t have called that penalty, but that doesn’t erase the fact it 1) wasn’t crazy and 2) was called, and that’s how the Red Bulls turned a whole lot of mostly nothing into one more point on the road. Celentano made all of two saves tonight (and came close on the PK), one of them that asked no more of him than catching a placement shot at head level from range, and that gives a good measure of New Jersey’s “dominance” tonight, and the limits of their present approach to the game. They succeeded in stifling everything Cincy thought to do, as soon as they tried it – boiling over Luciano Acosta’s frustration in the process – but the return they got was almost entirely negative. RBNY only managed one good shot on goal that stuck with me (Morgan, from range, circa the 63rd), but the rest topped out at their trademark frenetic aimlessness. They’re the soccer equivalent of someone who can win the fight for the knife in a street fight, but don’t know what to do with it from there.

Now, to pick up the mail from the complaints department...

Seattle Sounders v Portland Timbers Preview: Look Out for the Rich Kids, Take Aim...

The enemy. Obviously.

I saw a tweet about how the Portland/Seattle series features an unusual games where the home team loses. I didn’t screen-cap it and I can’t figure out a low-effort way to look it up, so, pffftt...

Seattle Sounders
Record/Basics: 8-7-2, 26 points, 5-3-1 home, 3-4-1 away; 26 gf, 19 ga, +7 goal differential
Last 10: WLWWLWTWLW (4-1-1 home, 2-0-2 away; more businesslike than outstanding)
Oppo: v VAN, @ FCD, v MIN, @ HOU, @ COL, v CLT, v LAFC, v SKC, v MTL, @ TFC

What We Know About Them
You mean besides the fact they’re like the rich-kid villain from every coming-of-age movie ever made? Personages from a dream from which you wish you could awake, only more annoying than frightening?

Look, hate ‘em or hate ‘em, the Seattle Sounders have been the most consistent team in Major League Soccer since joining in...I don’t care when. Even the players people (which, here, means Portland Timbers fans) shit on – e.g., Cristian Roldan; I’ll never get that one – tend to be good parts of the machine, even if they’re not the best players.

Despite the rocky start – which (how fucking on-brand is this?) paid off – Seattle wasted little time clawing itself back over the playoff line. Moreover, if anyone doubted they’d do exactly that, I never saw or heard them say it. As for my personal theory about the secret of Seattle’s success, it comes in two parts: 1) their goals allowed consistently falls below the league average (often well; related, the present average for goals allowed is 24.7, Seattle has let in 19); and 2) their attack puts teams in what I call “the Murder Box,” i.e., pinning the opposition in their defensive third with waves of bodies and often getting at least two shots/sequence off that.

People who watch more closely appreciate the Sounders made the climb despite missing a literal handful of regular starters (e.g., João Paulo, Xavier Arriaga, Raúl Ruidíaz, Will Bruin and Obed Vargas(?)), and that brings the story to the present.

FC Cincinnati v Red Bull New York Preview: Keeping the Bulls at Bay

Their logo compels them.

It’s been respectable for FC Cincinnati lately, good even, and they’ve battled multiple Eastern giants to one point per. It looks another week of the same thing on the menu, but, fuck it, it’s 2022, so let ‘er rip and dream big. First, some relevant facts:

Red Bull New York
Record/Basics: 9-5-5, 32 points, 3-2-4 home; 6-3-1 away; 29 gf, 20 ga, +9 goal differential
Last 10: TTTLWLWLWW (1-3-1 on the road, including all three road losses of 2022; hmmm...)
Oppo: v POR, @ PHI, v CHI, @ MIA, v DC, @ CLT, v TOR, @ LAFC, v ATL, @ SKC

What We Know About Them
Taking inspiration from the corporate logo on their shirts, the Red Bulls chase every pass, ball and player like blood-doped demons. Oh, and their forwards – mostly Patrick Klimala and Tom Barlow – have been crap this season (just 7 goals and 3 assists between them). Still, they’re difficult to play against and just as hard to beat and their road form, though worse lately (see above, maybe celebrate a little), ranks near the top of the league.

When it comes to goals for/allowed, they’re on the right side of average (24.7) in both categories; going the other way, they scored nearly half their goals in just four games - 4-1 @ TOR, 3-0 @ ORL, 3-3 v CHI, 4-1 v DCU. Game-to-game, then, they don’t score a lot (that’s good!), but, with that defense(/defensive scheme), they don’t need to (awww); then again, they’d given up two goals in every road game prior to their last, a 1-0 road-win over a serially hapless Sporting Kansas City team. About that...

Notes on Recent Form
Big picture, they’ve won four of their last six – a pretty compelling feat regardless of team/venue/form. It’s that specific context that makes their offensive production borderline embarrassing: they posted shitter-level xG in three of their past five games (0.7 or less), and topped out at 1.4 at home against Toronto. That said, that 0.7 xG fails to capture the way they seemed to flick a switch at the start of the 2nd half at SKC and find great looks (four for sure, maybe five) until Aaron Long nodded home off a corner. They went down a man for the final 20+ minutes of that game (due to stoppage time) and, a couple chances aside (one of them cleared off the line), they made SKC piss ‘em them all way with a combination of rabid-hyper-puppy harrassment and shithousery (Klimala, in particular, who found his special purpose).

New England Revolution 2-2 FC Cincinnati: Rhymin & Stealin

Remember when they used to smoke after sex in the movies?

And...yep, FC Cincinnati’s 2-2 draw at the New England Revolution lifted them to their personal best for points in a single Major League Soccer season. 25 > 24, people. And still so much time to play.

Before digging into it, I’d like to pause here to appreciate the weirdness of Cincy’s 2022 season.

When the season started, bringing Brenner off the bench, or just leaving him there, made perfect sense. And when he did come in, he just kind of wandered around, looking some pitiful combination of sad, confused and lost. From (weighty) sunk cost to a forward scoring goals worthy of his price tag in just a handful of games. Who saw that coming?

The conversation around Brandon Vazquez talked more about the ceiling hanging over all the good things he does rather than those good things as recently as the end of last season. Today, Vazquez is in the conversation for the U.S. Men’s National Team.

Nick Hagglund has been a regular starter for most of the season. And I don’t mind it one bit.

And, yesterday, Pat Noonan trotted out the kind of defensive midfield – Allan Cruz paired with Yuya Kubo – that had spelled spinning wheels in one direction and getting run over in the other.

I type this while craving, not so much the cigarette it sold, but the branding they used to sell it: you’ve come a long way, baby, aka, FC Cincinnati.

I started with the forest because I don’t have much to say about the trees except, they’re fine. I can’t think of one Cincy player I’d accuse of having a bad game yesterday, even as I imagine Geoff Cameron is still yelling self-affirmations into his bathroom mirror after giving up the second go-ahead goal to the theretofore silent Gustavo Bou’s near-post run. The team as a whole looked a little shaky for the 10+ minutes that followed, but they regained their footing and played their way back into the match.

Nashville SC 2-2 Portland Timbers: Improv Without a Prompt & a Bit o' Luck

I feel good, I do...just keep the damn thing on, for now.

What lies all but inertly for long stretches of time, only to come to and get to business?

The answer could be Jaroslaw Niezgoda or, in this game and, best case, the season, the Portland Timbers. It could be both, it could be neither: that’s my way of signaling I won’t even start getting ahead of myself.

After slipping down to somewhere between doomed and rock-bottom, the theretofore irrelevant Portland Timbers nabbed two straight brass rings on their way to a 2-2 draw on the road at Nashville SC on the back of (yet) a(nother) brace from the theretofore irrelevant Jaroslaw Niezgoda, at which point you have to ask yourself, is it all just a metaphor waiting for the big director in the sky box to whisper...action?

Again, good sense and more than a few visuals from tonight make a strong case for walking along the bandwagon to see what happens before you run ahead of it shouting promises of beer, wine and trophies. Best not say reckless things, and so on. If only the next word were “but.”

Leaving points on the table has become a house specialty for Nashville, for one, even against lower-rated teams that the Timbers. While I’d argue they never looked dominant tonight (confident might even be a stretch), you could feel the nerves of both team and city rattling the second a pair of their errors gifted Niezgoda the penalty kick. Penalty kicks being what they are – which Dairon Asprilla did his bit to sign, seal and deliver the Timbers to within one goal of one point – those two moments could have served as a wake-up call to Nashville or a rallying flag to the Timbers.

Fortunately for the visitors, momentum had already tilted Portland’s way courtesy of Eryk Williamson coming on for the valiant, sometimes-limited, yet clearly kaput, Yimmi Chara. [Ed. - I’ll defend him as a player (though probably not a DP...and is he still?) more than most; if they held a Utility Player of the Year Award and they gave me a vote, Yimmi would get mine, but I digress.] I also doubt any Timbers fan would seriously argue that Portland didn’t have a better second half. I’ll get to that, and Eryk’s role in it, but a word about the first half first.

Nashville SC v Portland Timbers Preview: A Hall of Mirrors in Another House

Makes me wanna puke, too.

The Portland Timbers road form (1-4-4) lends a real "but for Providence Park" vibe to the Timbers 2022 season. On the plus side, they’re playing a team that has struggled to get all three points at home – yes, even lately. First, their numbers:

Nashville SC
Record/Basics: 7-5-5, 26 points, 2-1-3 home, 5-4-2 road; 22 gf, 19 ga, +3
Last 10: TLWLWTWTLW (4-3-3; 2-1-2 home; middling, but last 5 were pretty soft)
Oppo: @ SJ, @ LAG, v RSL, @ HOU, v MTL, v ATL, @ COL, v SJ, v SKC, @ DC

What We Know About Them
I have a misconception that Nashville’s struggling stuck in the back of my mind, but that probably looks at their 2022 through the refracted lens of their home games – more on that later. When most people think Nashville, they probably think Walker Zimmerman at the back, Dax McCarty (somehow still) steering traffic through the middle, and Hany Muhktar running loose up top/off that old war horse C. J. Sapong. And, yes, both have done well in 2022 (8 goals, 5 assists for Hany, 5 goals, 3 assists for Sapong; funny side note on Sapong, he’s still an every other year player). Other words that may come to mind: combative and counter-attacking.

All that has largely held up lately, if with a little less Zimmerman (see, qualifying, World Cup).

Notes on Recent Form
I haven’t seen a ton of Nashville this season – and this’ll be my first full 90 with them – so I’ll have to stretch the numbers a bit. That said, I’m expecting the way they create chances to have a fair resemblance to what they tried – and with some real success against Orlando City SC in their midweek U.S. Open Cup quarterfinal (here’s the MLS in 15 for your edification). Nashville came within three stoppage time minutes of winning that game and had a fair argument for the better team, but that was also another road game; their last two wins both came on the road (at Colorado Rapids and at DC United). When I look at their last three home games – against Atlanta, San Jose and SKC – I’d expect at least five-six points out them, and yet they managed just two. More to the point, they rarely see more of the ball, even at home, and they played arguably their worst game when they attempted possession – the home loss to SKC.

To flesh out the general profile, Nashville doesn’t create a ton of chances – they probably averaged 11 shots/game in their last 5-6 games – but they get a useful number of shots on goal out of it (e.g., around six). And they probably get away with it because they rarely let the opposition get to, never mind much over, a 1.0 xG.

New England v FC Cincy Preview: New Sensation (and I Did the INXS Song Just Get Stuck in Your Head?)

First image for "a bright shiny future." Wow.

I tune in with anticipation for FC Cincinnati games in 2022. Not dread. Beautiful. Starting with some numbers...

New England Revolution
Record/Basics: 6-5-6, 24 points, 4-2-3 home; 2-3-3 away; 27 gf, 26 ga, +1 goal differential
Last 10: LWTTWTWTWT* (2-0-3 at home; more favorable than not, tho shit’s done changed)
Oppo: @ DC, v MIA, v CLB, @ ATL, @ CIN, v PHI, @ SKC, v ORL, v MIN, @ VAN

What We Know About Them
First, there have changes since the last time Cincy played New England – e.g., no more Matt Turner, no more Adam Buksa (ergo, no more this) – but something else changed as well: the Revs haven’t lost since the last day of April (30 days in April, right?). Still, hey have plenty of talent – your Bous, your Gils, your...rest of the team – and, after starting slower than an 80-year-old getting out of a low-slung sedan, they’re presently breathing down the back of Cincinnati’s collective necks. And the Orange and Blue play this one on the road.

Notes on Recent Form
[* Fucking Form Guide and its shifting dates...]

After watching, oh, 2/3 of last Wednesday’s 0-0 draw at the Vancouver Whitecaps and poking around some box scores, I noted some commonalities. New England generally likes possession, whether at home or on the road (they got ~60/40 in three of their last five, but had a 6% margin at lowest), but they no longer run up the chances (as I recall them doing). The 1-1 draw at the Union aside (danger, Will Robinson, danger!), they’ve generally gone shot-for-shot against the opposition; perhaps more tellingly (or hopeful), they’ve posted modest xG lately – e.g., from a low of 0.5 against Minnesota, but the rest (again, Philly excepted) fell in the just over 1.0 line.

Some details run between the numbers – e.g., they got an assist in the win over Sporting Kansas City with an Uri Rossell red card around half time, and they played up the gut (and got a little lucky) against the Loons, but they showed some tendency to play toward their left – i.e., toward newbie Dylan Borrero’s – in a couple other games. One more thing to flag, they’ve run over their season-average goal differential and/or pattern lately, but not by much. You can see who they played over their past five games, and where, I’m just providing some context for the results.