Felipe's Farewell, Four Points Taken & a Familiar Serving Angst

Because this will include notes on two games, plus a half-assed Scouting Report on the game versus the Seattle Sounders this weekend (for reasons which I’ll explain), this post attempts to compress an abundance of thoughts into what will still be short post. I’m going to kick things off with Felipe Mora’s last game as a Timber.

Mora scored three goals over his last two games. To be clear, I committed to Team Kevin Kelsy early in the 2026 season, without regrets (doesn’t hurt Kelsy backed that up), but one can’t help but wonder what Mora could have done with more than 443 minutes. Scored a couple more goals, almost certainly, the man always works and I’ve always respected what he brought to the team, while also accepting he doesn’t fit the team the Timbers have evolved into over the past season or two (for good, and mostly ill). Making peace with departure still comes a lot easier than liking it.

The goals he scored – the first, a classic put-back versus FC Dallas, the second and third headed goals off corners(!) versus Real Salt Lake – all pointed to what made Mora effective as a player: reading the game, knowing where to go to receive a pass, sniff out a rebound or, almost comically, to find a gap between defenders half a foot taller than him to nod home. Didn’t even have to jump on that first goal against RSL…priceless…

Scoring that brace on Saturday put Mora within a goal of a now, deservedly-mythical Portland Timbers hat trick and – I’m pretty sure I mean it when I say this – I don’t think I even want to see a Timbers hat trick unless it comes in a moment that would have been as perfect as Felipe Mora scoring one in his farewell game. Had it happened, every person who attended that game live would have experienced one of those rare, privileged moments that gave meaning to suffering through 100 shit performances played under terrible weather and worse refereeing. A Mora hat trick would have ranked right behind the double post in the pantheon of “I’d go back in time and kill moments” in Portland Timbers history.

FC Dallas L'il Scouter: Going Prepared (to Avoid the Jump Scare)

4-2-0 road record, AAUGGHGHH!!

Respecting the fact I can only know so much about a team at glance, kindly accept this offering in the same spirit. That said, when you don’t know much, what else can you do but start with…

The Facts
Record & Related Stats
7-4-4, 25 pts., 15 GP; 30 gf, 22 ga (+8); home 3-2-4, away 4-2-0
Last 10 Results: WDDLLWWLWW (5-3-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ DC (4-0 W); v STL (1-1 D); v LAG (2-2 D); v MIN (0-1 L); @ SEA (1-2 L); @ RBNY (2-0 W); v RSL (3-1 W); v VAN (2-3 L); @ SJ (3-2 W); @ COL (2-1 W)

A couple things jump out there (and apologies for any typos; I do those). I’d start with that 4-2-0 road record – especially with three of the four coming hot into the World Cup break – but I’m mostly struck by seeing a Dallas team improving as the regular season turns into summer. My memory could be faulty on here, but the Dallas teams I recall from the past 10 or so seasons past start hot enough to get people thinking they could have a strong one, only to have them slouch slowly to the playoff line and yo-yo on either side of it before making a wholly forgettable playoff run.

At the risk of repeating a prediction that seems to blow up in my face every other season…Dallas looks good this year.

The Lineup(s)
The (Moribund) Mothership tells me Eric Quill (good vibes) generally sends out his starting XI in a 3-4-3 (mostly like this one), but the broadcast had them in a 4-4-2 for the loss versus Vancouver that looked plausible based on the lineup (available here; first couple seconds are all you need, but Sebastian Berhalter scored a couple bangers in that one).

Seattle Sounders 1-5 Portland Timbers: On the Right Side of a Snowball...

A peace I hope we all find...

Maybe there’ll be some benefit to spitting this out same day in my older years…

Let’s move this fast and keep it tight, people. The Portland Timbers kicked off their return to regular season action by kicking the holy shit and ever-lovin' stuffin' out of the Seattle Sounders. The 5-1 win felt like dunking by the end, even if the numbers pad the Sounders’ pain a little.

The Game, Very Briefly
It opened as I expected, with Seattle worked to get their attacking patterns going and they collapsed space effectively every time the Timbers worked the ball wide. The Sounders probably hit their high in those early moments (the five-minute interval agrees; see, the numbers), but their grasp on the game slipped away little by little. It started with the Timbers cutting out passes, disrupting Seattle’s inlets into he attacking third, but their game plan really got upended when…well, the Sounders got punched in the mouth.

The game turned from the second Jimer Fory floated that leading cross to Kevin Kelsy sprinting between two defenders to score Portland's first goal (wait for it, and so much of it). It took a double save, first by James “Canuck Wall” Pantemis, then by Kamal “Maybe Wily Veteran’s His Game?” Miller to hold Portland’s lead (has to be in here somewhere, maybe even here?), but Seattle never really recovered before the half. After the half? Shit broke all the way down…

I’ve used the phrase “five-minute fuck up” in the past and (with allowances for the fact all this unfolded in more than five minutes) Seattle’s defense served up a peach of an example tonight. First, their defense got beat at the back post – twice! – which allowed Miller to keep up the heroics. Four minutes later (still within bounds), Cole Bassett started and finished a goal off transition courtesy of a David Da Costa pushing then snapping across Seattle’s backline. Three minutes later (shit!), Kelsy bullied in a goal to complete his brace. That had the Timbers up 4-0 and rolling all. the. way. down the river.

A Seattle Sounders L'il Scouter & Portland v the Dregs of the West

Step One: less of this.

The Eastern Conference Re-Entry post took a pretty linear shape (and thanks to anyone who read it!), but, for reasons of local rooting interests, this Western Conference Re-Entry post will take a different shape.

It’ll start with a brief Scouting Report on the Portland Timbers’ next, dreaded opponent, the Seattle Sounders (aka, the Spoiled Rich Kids of the Middle North, aka, Cascadia’s Somehow Successful Fail-Sons). The section that follows expands on the template for the Eastern Conference Re-Entry by flagging all the teams within reach of the Timbers in the standings, whether above or below, and the post ends with a speed-run through the teams in the top half of the Western Conference table. With Portland closer to the bottom of the table than the top, that last section will be reduced or cut entirely as time allows…fwiw, I don’t know if it’s going to happen anymore than you do. Every day is a surprise/miracle. Even if neither are very good. [UPDATE: That section was cut, notes on the top eight in the West are written into the record indirectly and by suggestion.] Ahem. Getting on with it!

Before looking forward, I wanted to link to the long look back I posted right before MLS turned off the lights for the World Cup break. It was fairly straightforward, content-wise - just listing all the players and what I think of their contributions, talents and individual potential; you won’t see many rays of sunshine in there, because the sun struggles to get all the way down to 13th place. With that in mind (including the post), I wanted to start with a glance ahead to the next four games – e.g., at Seattle, v Dallas, v RSL, v Seattle - regardless of who’s lining up and giving direction to the starting eleven. (At time of posting, that is still interim head coach, Jack Cassidy), but Jeremy Peterman posted a quicky to Bluesky saying that the Timbers may report a new head coach this week.) The two things I liked to see:

1) Coherence in the Attack
Too often under Phil’s “guidance,” the Timbers functioned as a competitively dysfunctional improv troupe – i.e., too little “yes-anding” and too much “fuck it, guess I’ll just kick the ball.” Seeing the attacking pieces coordinate as they move on Thursday would be enough to make me coin the word "delief" (a delight meets a relief).

MLS Eastern Conference Re-Entry Cheat-Sheet: Your (Near) Post-World Cup Dose of Prevagen

From a movie/show called "State of Play," apparently.

With Major League Soccer returning to action this week (Eeeee!!!!), I put a little time into reorienting myself to what the big-picture state of play looked like before the World Cup break. So, with my results tracking Word doc as a guide (because MLSSoccer.com refuses to keep the Form Guide in full-season working condition), some sorting on the still-functioning (for now) Stats page, and a look ahead at what every team in MLS’s Eastern Conference has between today and (SIIIIGGHH!) the Leagues Cup in the first half of August, I put together brief ‘n’ loose notes on where every team in the East stands as regular season play resumes. There’s nothing deep down there, no more links, no kicking around tactics, notes on new signings, significant departures, and so on. This is just someone whispering over your shoulder to feed you a little more intel than you get off the name tag and your memory.

In the order they…stand, um, in the standings, these are my notes. Oh, and it looks like Leagues Cup kicks off on the first week of August. 

1st Nashville SC
Matches to Leagues Cup: v ATL, v MTL, @ ORL, @ DC
Notes
Compiled a 6-2-2 record over the ten games leading into the World Cup break, comfortably second in a runaway for the top three best goal differentials in MLS (Vancouver and San Jose are the other two), plus with three attacking players posting strong numbers in Sam Surridge (9 goals), Hany Mukhtar (6 goals, 5 assists), Warren Madrigal (5 goals, 4 assists; also, who?), and Cristian Espinoza (3 goals, 8 assists), plus the league’s sole remaining undefeated home record: Nashville’s better than fine. They’re also two points above Miami in the East with a game in hand. Based on the upcoming games listed above, and barring any disasters over the break, they’re a good bet to stay up here.

2nd Inter Miami CF
Matches to Leagues Cup: v CHI, @ MTL, v CLB
Notes
Their league-leading attack – led by (sigh) Lionel Messi – keeps Miami well above water and a free-swinging Eastern Conference (fun fact: every team in the West except three worst (SKC, Austin and Portland) have better goals allowed numbers than Miami). Their home record needs work (2-1-3, with the two wins coming versus Portland (of course) and a 6-4 win over Philly that underscores the “free-swinging” descriptor above. Miami will stick near the top, even if nothing in their past 10 games says their defense will improve (20 goals allowed, and against some crap teams). One likely under-appreciated detail: the assists they’re getting from Rodrigo De Paul (7) and Telasco Segovia (8). As for the upcoming, the Chicago game has fun written all over it, but I don’t see any gimmes in that run.

Portland Timbers, at the Break: Was It Underachieving?

something's gotta give, something's gotta give, something's...

To open the post with a question, does the Portland Timbers conscious uncoupling from Phil Neville render all that came before it even partially irrelevant?

Answer: Some combination of we’re about to find out and we’ll only know if the new hire makes the current team rise above lower middle-table class.

As I thought about what I wanted to write into the record during the moral injury timeout of Major League Soccer’s 2026 season, aka, the 2026 World Cup, I came up with a couple different approaches – e.g., reviewing every goal allowed this season to see if I could get a handle on whatever ails the Timbers defense (28 goals allowed so far, 2.0/game), or mining themes out of all the posts I’d written since First Kick 2026. On the theory that Neville’s departure renders all that at least partially irrelevant, all that’s going out the window.

Related, I’m not going to bother picking at the bones of the rotting camel carcass that ended Phil’s tenure, last Saturday’s 1-3 home loss versus the San Jose Earthquakes. On the most basic level, it was an(other?) example of game getting away from the Timbers; they gave up three goals with just over a quarter of the game played and Portland hasn’t scored more than two goals in any game outside the opener versus Columbus and versus a wretched, yet rising Sporting Kansas City team (now just three points below the Timbers). I doubt I would have put much time into that one had Neville stuck around. Setting aside the question of whether he was up to it (he wasn’t), the two-month The World Cup break will give every team in MLS something like a fresh start. Sure, some teams would make that start with more baggage than others – think of Portland running eight points behind the pace for the “real” (as in non-play-in) playoffs as starting adulthood with student debt in a race against trust-fund kids – but the Timbers brain-trust had plenty of information for gauging what was and wasn't working and making the relevant adjustments.

Those adjustments can only go so far, of course, with the extent limited by the players currently under contract with Portland. And that’s what the rest of this post will be: one man’s examination of the cards the Timbers currently hold in their hand and that its next manager will have to play. I’ll take those one at a time in player-by-player, position-by-position blurbs below - most based on the eye test, with a glance at the numbers – starting with the regulars and then on through the bench. Before touching on the present realities, however, let us turn our attention to a couple other externals.

San Jose Earthquakes Scouting Report: You Know What? Fuck It.

Yummy and a future worth dreaming about.

As I sit down to type this, I can’t help but wonder if there’s a point to it. The Timbers won’t play again until the middle of July (July!) and San Jose doesn’t play another regular season game until the week after. I mean, how many teams will come back after the break remade, refreshed and quite possibly smelling of peaches and mint. You say that’s silly, I say you never know. But, because I did the work…

The Basics

San Jose Earthquakes
9-3-2, 28 pts., 14 GP; 31 gf, 14 ga (+17); home 4-2-1, away 5-1-1
Last 10 Results: WWWWWWDDLL (6-2-2)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ VAN (1-0 W); v SD (3-0 W); @ SKC (3-1 W); @ LAFC (4-1 W); v ATX (5-1 W); @ STL (3-2 W); @ TFC (1-1 D); v VAN (1-1 D); @ SEA (2-3 L); v FCD (2-3 L);

I made the personally unsettling decision to track only the past ten games for every team in Major League Soccer (literally killing me), but for anyone who forgot the San Jose Earthquakes conceded one single goal over their first six games (versus Seattle Sounders; hold that thought). Even after the surrendered their second goal, then third, then fourth, then they allowed two after that, etc., it took to the beginning of (fucking) May for San Jose to draw its next game of 2026. In the words of the great philosopher, Gwen Stefani, that shit is bananas for the team that traded Cristian Espinoza to Nashville SC and doesn’t have any other player that would make most people’s short list for league-elite players.

When they picked up their second loss of the season at Seattle, nobody blinked because why would you? They were 10-1-0 at the time, San Jose was bound to slip up at some point, so why not again a Sounders that both started strong and beat them previously? Even that was tricky – e.g., they started a sacrificial lineup and gave up two shit goals, but the first shit goal (midfield where?) – which tied the score – came after Ousseni Bouda and Preston Judd came into the game. Judd returned the game to 2-2 with his ninth(!) goal of 2026, but Seattle scored the winner (also not good; defenders where?) after Beau Leroux and the experienced Paul Marie came in to solidify the defense. And then came last weekend versus FC Dallas...