MLS Week 20-22 Level Set, the Timbers Place in It & a Wee Austin Scouter

MLS to literally all of its teams.

With the Leagues Cup now behind every MLS team (look at that, clean sweep) and the home stretch on the horizon, I felt like I needed another level set on where teams are around the league. The dive ain’t deep: it’s about 80% looking for patterns over the past 10 games for every team in MLS and 20% “other” – so the analysis doesn’t go much further than “things are okay” or “Jesus Christ, are they okay?” Just to note it, going back 10 games in regular season play takes all the teams below back to the middle of May; a pretty big sample, in other words. Hopefully, the blurbs provided on each team will either confirm an impression, maybe even tell you something you didn’t already know.

As for organization, I decided to go with something simple as the playoffs: each MLS team is grouped below as either Quick (i.e., either above the playoff line or with a fair chance of getting over it by Decision Day) or Dead (i.e., unlikely to make the playoffs, present place in the standings notwithstanding). I went with that looser measure deliberately: some teams look a lot more like “contenders,” others the middlest of mid-table, and most will trot to the end of their season at the exact same clip, but a good run at the right time can go all the way to MLS Cup for any team that makes MLS’s open-armed playoff system, so why get out the fine-tooth comb when I run a ratty old brush through it?

Quick aside: looking at the 2026 standings with the rumored new playoff format floated by Larry(? (Harry? What’s his fuck?) Berg is a fun exercise. I understand the 2027-28 season will feature more conferences and, full disclosure, both eyes and ears glazed over when it was explained to me, but as I understand Berg’s proposed system, the “if the playoffs started today” line for 2026 would be drawn between the determinedly mid-table Red Bull New York and the (frankly) plummeting Seattle Sounders. Everyone on 26 points and above gets in, basically, so that’s eight teams from the East and twelve in the West (e.g., the LA Galaxy and everyone above them, basically, and at time of posting). Have to admit that’s not as bad as I thought, or not much worse than the present system, at least in terms of the invite list.

So, time to get into it. I’ve decided to start with the Dead – i.e., the teams I don't see making the 2026 playoffs – and then run through the Quick. Going backwards feels little more suspenseful, for some reason. But, before getting into that, and because this is a Portland Timbers blog, I’m going to start by seeing how both they and Austin FC, the team they host this weekend, weigh in the balance…plus I also wanted to pad the entry on Austin with a little scouting report.

Los Angeles FC 1-1 Portland Timbers: Donning the Beer Goggles, Willingly

Yes, I find it desirable. Hot, even.

Before the game kicked off, I topped my game thread by noting that I wasn’t sure what I wanted more: a good result or a good performance. The real question comes closer to what, between a lucky win and a brave loss, would give me more faith in the project.

Fun story: I got something close to both. It’s a tricky melon to cut, honestly, and depends largely on what you take from where. Let’s get into it…

Los Angeles FC 1-1 Portland Timbers
What Passes for a Match Report
Over the first 60 minutes or so, more or less the same thing happened: LAFC set up in Portland’s half, methodically probing for openings and, point in fact, finding them about 20 times. And every 12-15 minutes, Portland would finally connect a pass that got past or around LAFC’s midfield and set off a scramble that pulled their pants at least halfway off. That’s the big picture, but a fly snuck onto the projector. (Anyone keeping track of the metaphors? Where am I?)

The Timbers scored the opening goal in the fourth minute. Kristoffer Velde shagged a loose a ball out of midfield, carried it around LAFC’s right, chopped (tell me it was) Ryan Hollingshead out of stride, came inside and passed a dagger to David Da Costa. Da Costa’s run out of midfield did half the work and, dammit, there’s something to love about that near post finish. Made it smart, therefore classy. To tie that into the big picture, that goal started the timer for the game described above. LAFC created an embarrassment of chances over those long stretches of possession; James Pantemis posted five strong saves, at a minimum, over that entire period; LAFC played at least two near-perfect, grass-cutting crosses to runners breaking through a nose ahead centrally only to see said runners step over or on the pass: my butt puckered most on the latter, but all that seemed…fine somehow. LAFC could have scored two, but they, crucially, did not.

The way you feel about the game likely turns on how all the above made you feel. To pass my vote, I thought Portland could do it all night, maybe even into an extra time they don’t play in the regular season. Where a reasonable person might see a game teetering on the edge, I saw defenders in good positions on nearly every pass LAFC played(1). The chances came, clearly, but Portland consistently had a player close enough to challenge the shot or hassle the shooter. What they couldn’t cover, Pantemis back-stopped with yet another, “he’s not buying drinks tonight” performance. Pantemis’ best save may have been his first (the one on Mathieu Choniere; how does a Quebecois learn to slalom like that?), but he was still slapping ‘em away in stoppage time. (His greatest hits surely made the snapshot, yeah?)

Portland Timbers 3-1 San Diego FC: The Timbers Go Over the Top

The real caption: "Great Moments in Action History."

No clever preamble for this one. Just started writing and let it go where it went.

Portland Timbers 3-1 San Diego FC
A Match Report
Any fans of arm-wrestling tuning in? Even non-fans are familiar with the way one wrestler (“Wrestler One”) will push the opponent’s (aka, “Wrestler Two’s”) arm closer and closer to the Pad of Defeat, only for Wrestler Two to push out of it and flip Wrestler One’s arm closer to the opposite Pad of Defeat. Portland thrived tonight in the Wrestler Two role. San Diego methodically pushed the ball forward, compacting the Timbers in their defensive third and, time and again, Portland kicked out from under the weight of San Diego’s pressure and turned the tables. The trick worked well enough that San Diego forgot how to effectively apply the pressure little by little as the game wore on.

Know what I like best about the chronology? 23 minutes separated Portland’s second goal from its first and 17 more minutes separated the third goal from the second. This wasn’t a case of San Diego losing its shit over a 5-10 minute stretch; it was Portland finding different ways to wrest the game out of San Diego’s poised control (in the early bits, at least) and, yeah, pretty much wreck them at the other end.

Also, what goals! Kristoffer Velde had the honor of laying the first blow to San Diego’s carefully-constructed game-plan. Portland slipped behind San Diego’s midfield and, with the field open ahead of them, Cole Bassett (looking fresher! or more grounded?) received a pass from Velde that slipped it back to him with a reverse pass that left him running free and nekkid toward goal. All Velde had to do was belt it home from 25 yards (or tharabouts) out. Velde also keyed up Portland’s second goal when, taking advantage of a scrambled and dizzy San Diego defense, he played Jimer Fory around their last (real narrow) fullback to the top of the wee penalty area; Fory’s cross teed up Ariel Lassiter for the soccer-dunk (aka, tap-in). Last but not least, as well as Velde (again) did to push San Diego’s left to their end-line, David Da Costa still had plenty to do, up to and including, pulling back for a little more space, inspiring the lone defender near him to sit down, and curling the ball around the goalkeeper, an invisible pony only he could see and who was cheering for him this whole time. Portland scored three beautiful goals, basically, where two would have been ample. Feeling a little spoiled and loving it....

Chicago Fire 2-1 Portland Timbers: Ground Down by the Grind

One of many movies titled "The Grind"

You can’t win ‘em all is a mantra all fans should embrace. Maybe this is simple as losing to a good home team at their place?

It would have felt worse had the Timbers played all right…they did not. Moving on...

Chicago Fire FC 2-1 Portland Timbers
What Passes for a Match Report
The Fire took the within the first ten minutes of the game. They extended that lead mere minutes later when Portland’s defense literally fell all over itself as they failed to keep out a second goal. Things generally improved from there, though neither much nor quickly. The ref was thinking about the halftime whistle before Portland fired an even mildly threatening shot and the broadcast booth (whatever you think of the talent) could still say something along the lines of Portland had a couple chances though none with conviction as late at the 80th minute with essential accuracy. The Timbers did finally pull back one goal – and I was just reminded by the highlights that Omir Fernandez added one more late sneaky chance – but the Timbers never really got going in this one. Thus endeth the overview.

On Chicago’s first goal, I saw several people fret online during the Club Tijuana game about how high Finn Surman pushes up in (what we understand as) Marti Cifuentes’ system. Seems like the Fire’s brain trust may have spotted that as well because Andrew Gutman’s ball over the top to Robin Lod found that space like he knew where to look. Such was the chaos around Chicago’s second goal that it barely feels worth picking apart – i.e., what started as a modest oil fire raged to a big one when (yikes) Surman attempted pass(?!) out of the back went straight to Phillip Zinckernagel and all the Timbers could think to do from there was throw bodies in front of it. The only commendable thing about the entire episode was Dje D’Avilla’s finish. Too much of the first half happened to the Timbers; they struggled to find their feet, never mind their front one. Passes and players slipped by and around defenders before Portland’s defenders seemed to register their presence. If the entire afternoon had anything to redeeem it, it came when Surman headed home the Timbers' only goal off a solid, (too) late set piece.

Chicago had a couple chances to pad their lead – e.g., a Robert Lewandowski shot that James Pantemis padded away (has to be in here, right?) and, happily, just past the right shoulder of a lurking Zinckernagel (why does that sound dirty?) – but they flattened a little as the game quite literally wore on. It wasn’t one for the ages, probably wasn’t even one for the month; no one besides D’Avilla should remember this game past this week. (It’s only his third goal as a pro.)

Portland Timbers 3-1 Club Tijuana: Doom & (Fresh!) Paths of Glory

Pointless, yes, but still worth celebrating.

Really going to keep it short this time. You’ll see. (You won't. It's likely you never will.)

Due to the plethora of variables in play – e.g., Leagues Cup, early season for Liga MX, a new coach for the Timbers, hints the Timbers have changed their style with all the subtlety of the fouls Club Tijuana got away with tonight – I don’t see the point in picking through the innards of tonight’s game. The game/performance had its share of measurable positives – e.g., the Timbers doubled-up Tijuana’s goals allowed in the tournament (their first two games: a 0-2 loss at Austin FC and a 0-1 loss at San Diego) – but I just don’t have a solid feel on how they’ll translate to the stretch run of the MLS regular season.

Sunday’s game at Chicago Fire FC, aka, the team that topped all of MLS in Leagues Cup play (all wins, +5 goal differential, booted the theretofore successful Cruz Azul out of the tourney), should provide another level set. That said, I wouldn’t expect too much clarity either: whatever happens in that game will still feature a plethora of variables, just not as many. But that's enough about Sunday, let's return to the pointless glory of the Portland's present!

Portland Timbers 3-1 Club Tijuana
An Almost Insulting Match Summary
The Timbers opened strong and with a lot of the ball, but Tijuana chipped back into the game one chippy foul at a time. It took them less than ten minutes to find the cheat code in Portland’s defensive shape – the gap between the fullback and the winger – and the third or fourth run it at gave Tijuana the go-ahead goal (Mourad El Ghezouani was a handful all night). Their speed and aggression scrambled Portland for most of the first half – didn’t hurt the Tijuana benefited from the ref calling a loose one – but the Timbers found their balance and clawed one back before the first half ended when Jimer Fory overlapped(!!) up their left and found Kevin Kelsy at the back post.

For me, the final stats pour the correct measure of cold water on what looked like a wide open game; it was more fast than precise, but the openings yawned pretty wide when they came. In keeping with a theme disrupted only by the loss “at” Club America, the Timbers got slowly got hold of the game and throttled the life out of it. Between a scrum or two and one nerve-rattling breakaway (all of which surely made the highlights), Tijuana managed a couple chances in the second half, but that didn’t keep Portland from running away with it and at a decent trot. Both goals came from the Timbers’ comfort zone – e.g., a turnover that became a long ball to Kevin Kelsy that fell to Antony by a redirect, then Antony getting around Tijuana’s left after transition to find Ariel Lassiter (and at least one other Timber at the back post).

Club America 3-1 Portland Timbers: The Timbers Played All Right and Fucked Up Twice

Keep smoldering, king.

It wasn’t so bad, honestly. It just wasn’t what was needed.

Based on the views on the last post, a lot of people have done the sensible thing and gone on vacation. For the rest you schlubs, enjoy these notes from another schlub.

Club America 3-1 Portland Timbers
America and Timbers treated fans to a lively one. For me, the eye test and the final stats give a truer impression of the game as it played out on the field than the final score. Portland didn’t create a wealth of chances (ten total, four on goal), but they had reasonable chances to go ahead after cancelling America’s (genuinely impressive) opening goal and they had chances to equalize, if admittedly fewer, after America got their noses ahead a second time. To break things down a little…

The answer to the question, how good was Brian Rodriguez’s free kick(?), was look on the Ball Kid's face that you see just off frame in the fourth(?) replay on the goal. The Timbers answered mere minutes later through Kristoffer Velde, who literally sat an America defender on his ass (Israel Reyes?) after picking off ‘keeper Rodolfo Cota’s half-panicked outlet (and what did all y’all think of his goal celebration?). The two teams slogged toe-to-toe from that point to America’s go-ahead goal in the second half. Passes zipped between players for both, with defenders and midfielders snapping at everything within reach. Portland found a couple chances on set pieces (someone tell Cole Bassett to put his foot through the damn ball), while America kept Portland’s defense honest from range. Good chances, in other words, but nothing to hint at immediate success or demise.

Rodriguez teed up the game winner in the 63rd minute when a couple bobbles off defended balls gave him a path inside; his shot (another good ‘un) caromed off the post to the feet Isaias Violante, who punched home the goal near post. While that goal didn’t break Portland’s back, the distance between them and America's goal yawned ever wider as the minutes ticked away. Jack Cassidy (#RIP) threw in a couple subs – fewer than I’d like and later – but neither Antony nor Vincent Janssen came in to great effect (however, hold that thought).

Portland Timbers 5-2 Club Peng...Puebla: (Hot) Summertime Rolls

It's okay, man. The view's groovy up here!

This will be short. I mean it this time. Stop it. Don’t look at me like that.

Watching the Portland Timbers lately has had the feeling of Wile E. Coyote looking down after running off the cliff and seeing nothing to hold him up. And yet he does not fall.

Getting into it…

Portland Timbers 5-2 Club Puebla
The Game, Very Briefly
I’d argue Puebla ran the opening 30 minutes, maybe even dominated the opening 20, even with Ariel Lassiter scoring a rare early one by finishing off Kristoffer Velde's punishment of Puebla's loose defense. Puebla didn't take long to equalize on a tap-in by Eduardo Mustre when the sum of Portland’s left lost equilibrium and Alex Bonetig sat out the play. They shelled the Timbers’ area from the same side around the 28th minute, pressing a sustained attack better than Portland would manage until…I’d say the 38th minute. Once David Da Costa’s tap-dance poke flicked the ball past Ricardo Gutierrez for the Timbers’ third goal, the game ended both in fact and spirit.

Per the dictates of math, Portland scored one goal in between all that – on Cole Bassett glancing home the go-ahead goal after getting ahead of Puebla's entire defense – but Da Costa’s goal put a stamp on the game the other two merely suggested. Puebla spent the opening 25 minutes (at least) coursing through and around Portland’s defensive shape, only for the Timbers to break out – through Velde most often, at least early – and score goals. Da Costa’s goal stood up the argument that anything Puebla could do in Portland’s end ultimately wouldn’t matter. Once Puebla’s players had the space behind them in their minds every time they passed the ball, the wheels came off.