FC Dallas 2-1 Portland Timbers: The Big Picture Meets the Little One

Her soul's somewhere in there...

As anyone who tracks this blog or follows me on Bluesky knows, I’ve made a mantra of the argument that regular season games don’t matter in Major League Soccer. Today, I’d like to amend and extend that case into something more clarifying.

To be clear, the original argument still holds up. Any team that gets its shit together far enough ahead of Decision Day has the potential to get on a streak, get into the MLS Cup Playoffs and make some noise, maybe even snatch MLS Cup from a team that, based on their performance over the entire season, deserves it a little more. Thank gods the Supporters’ Shield still rewards that, no matter how little people value it.

The amendment/extension piece comes from something else, something that only stepped out of the background over the Portland Timbers’ past several struggling seasons. Upon reviewing their results, I started to notice the only teams Portland could beat were the ones either below the playoff line, or those slipping toward the wrong side of it. That is, the Timbers could only beat actually bad teams, or teams in bad form. Any time Portland played a team with even a little more than half of anything going on, two points or all three slipped away. I think my obsession with tracking results came before that, but this cemented the value of the exercise for me.

It’s not a perfect scale by any means. A crap team can beat a good team on any given day, of course, and even the best team can crap the bed. The thing to watch for is the persistence of the phenomenon – i.e., any season that sees your team reliably lose to the good teams deep enough into the regular season is a good one to give up on. It doesn’t mean they won’t make the playoffs – see the Timbers’ 2024 and 2025 seasons (on second thought, only look at the searing dead end of 2024 if you’re one of those freaks that watches replays of compound fractures…sicko) – it just means they will not make the final, they probably won’t even make the quarters, and they’re just the fodder on some other teams’ path to glory.

MLS Week 23 Review + a Wee St. Louis Scouter: May the Good Vibez Continue

A bit too on the nose...

So…fun fact: I took a longer look at three of the games I said “did not interest me” for the most American reason of all: I don’t like draws because they don’t give me much to work with. I am bound neither rules nor man…

I wouldn’t call MLS Week 23 “bad,” not in the formal sense, but the ground under my feet feels firm enough for me to argue that not a lot happened. Yeah, yeah, name an MLS Match Day when that doesn’t hold, but my feet won’t take one step off this soapbox till I’ve said my piece. That’s not the biggest deal, not with 11 games still remaining for most teams, but the gap between the good, the mid, and the irrelevant tightened a little on Saturday. For reference, the relevant lines break as follows, and in both conferences: 1-5 = good; 6-9 = mid; the rest = bad. That’s right, I said it. I’ll speak better of the teams below when they do better week in and out.

Speaking of, nearly every team the league has a midweek game this week. To paraphrase the inimitable, yet much-mocked Hudsucker Proxy, your future is now.

With that, it’s time to kick around last weekend’s results. As with every week’s edition (which have always existed and been reliably delivered since 1996, no, I have not shut down this blog three to four times), I value some results more than others and thus spend more time on them. In a reverse of last week’s post, this week’s post starts with those results, then speed-runs the rest. In the order I looked at ‘em…

Columbus Crew 3-0 Colorado Rapids
The prime directive here was to determine whether or not Colorado, of the now 2-9-1 road record, could win any road game. The highlights showed a team drowning over the opening 30 minutes and, despite spending most of the game only 0-1 down, never really recovering. The Rapids caught up on the numbers side before the final whistle, if just a little, but a Columbus team that hadn’t won in five games padded the final score smartly courtesy of goal contributions by new kid, Gonzalo Tapia; his tricky-shit goal, Columbus’ second, for reference. As for the Rapids, their home record (8-3-0 currently) looks like a good bet to get them to the playoffs, but all signs point to them needing to host if they want to go anywhere.

Portland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FC: How's Your Heart?

It was that kinda night.

When Vincent Janssen scored the third of his historic goals, I went through all the reactions – e.g., doubting I still knew how to count to three, looking for an offside flag to descend from the Heavens because Such Things Cannot Be. Polling the people around me came next – “that’s three, right? that was that specific player’s third goal?” – and, upon confirmation, I took a minute to just breathe in the moment. It’s not every day that a snake bite heals itself, you know?

About five minutes later, it occurred to me that the Portland Timbers could somehow piss away the win and the air suddenly didn’t taste the same. Was that the sulfurous tang of the smoke bombs that celebrated Portland’s (then) fourth goal, or the smell of a flatulent imp come to spoil the evening? When Minnesota scored their fourth goal (oof) with a cushion of added time still available (and with more time still added due to the Loons’ goal celebration), I crossed myself in both the Catholic and Orthodox traditions. One can never be too sure, no?

Portland Timbers 5-4 Minnesota United FC
What Passes for a Match Report
One could argue the game belonged to Janssen from the jump: the opening minutes saw him lose control of his first three touches and the Timbers struggled, collectively, over that same period. That gave the Loons at least one clear chance to take an early lead, maybe two, before Portland found their feet - viva la slow starts, I guess – but they hit a steady trot before scoring their first (all of that's probably in here, maybe even in here). A little give-‘n’-go set it up, allowing Jimer Fory to step clean into Minnesota’s penalty box (the little fucker) and forced Drake Callender into a flop save and a rebound. Minnesota CB Morris Duggan made the mistake of going to ground, where his raised leg sent Cole Bassett tumbling over (it looked like Bassett fell over him in real time) and Janssen to the penalty spot. Janssen’s kicked it home and sent the game into a frenzy. Before the final whistle blew, that game delivered more twists than a primetime soap opera featuring amnesia, a possession, and three affairs and at least one mystery murder.

MLS Week 22 Review & a Minnesota United FC Scouter, Just in Reverse.

Sweep the leg. Every time.

This post tested a new model for a Major League Soccer league-wide post and the experiment already failed. Not so much for anything specific to the post, but because it was only possible in a week where my schedule fit together just so. My schedule fits together just so, at most, quarterly.

At any rate, the concept carries forward what I did with the most recent level set – i.e., comment vaguely about how well each of the teams in MLS presents at this point in the season – and the content is still heavily results driven. To steal a concept from the players we all cheer on, I think it’s best to take things one game at a time as opposed to checking boxes you’re not even sure will appear in two weeks’ time. Where the level set centers the notes on teams, this post centers on results. Well, some results. And maybe not one that relates to your team.

Not all results are interesting, a statement that becomes truer as the season rushes to its end. For me, that continues all the way to bitter end, aka, Decision Day – i.e., what does getting a certain semi-fortunate match up in the first round of the playoffs matter when you don’t trust your team to beat anyone else? That’s a personal problem, obviously. I am the Cobra Kai coach deep down…

Back to it, I’ve grouped all of Week 22’s results (because that’s where most team are) into three groups below, as I’ll do every week (or aspire to do every week). Those are as follows:

1) Nothing to See Here, aka, the result in question tracked with reasonable expectations.

2) Noteworthy, aka, not a wild result, but something about it, whether big picture or small, felt worth flagging.

3) Surprise, Surprise, Surprise, aka, did not see that coming, might even be bit shit.

Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin FC: Outbelieved

Garfunkel, forever lingering behind...

I forgot the last time I thought xG was more or less made up, but when I look at the final stats…

Neither team needs a pat on the head that bad. Cringing over here...

I called this a must win on the usual grounds: any team with the beginning of a dream needs to take all three points from a home game against a shit road team on short rest. About that…

Portland Timbers 1-2 Austin FC
What Passes for a Match Report
I feel comfortable saying, and with minor exaggeration, that saying Austin looked better, both globally and marginally, over the first 87-ish minutes of that game covers the basics. They played the livelier game, used the ball to manage it, and held a defensive shape over 2/3 of the field that picked all the ideas out of Portland's back pockets (Paula Pomegranate Pumpernickel Penelope Paparazzi Putnam) before the Timbers could finish them. If I had to phrase the Timbers attacking posture in one word, I’d go with perplexed. A lot of nibbling at the edges for 87 minutes, basically.

Which made a problem of the fact Austin scored in the 25th minute. ‘Twas a lonely chance, an even lonelier goal, at least until the others came long, but Joseph Rosales give to Facundo Torres’ go did the trick, and Portland chased the game from there. And to the final whistle, if we’re being honest.

The Timbers equalized when Antony flicked the ball into (probably) Brendan Hines-Ike’s hand and subsequently received honors for taking the penalty (the penalty call should be somewhere in here, if not, RIOT!). I liked handing Antony the penalty kick, for what it’s worth, because why not show confidence in him so that he can regain the confidence he lost? Who doesn't love a redemption arc? Antony buried it – smartly, I might add – and Portland drew level at 1-1. Whenever the foul happened, the penalty was scored at the 89th minute. There I was, fat-thumbing my way through a clever summation of the game’s events…

…then Austin scored at the 94th minute, taking away the trash off of trash. A clean put-back on a desperate header, a fatal slip by Portland, hello, 11th place, darkness my old friend, etc.

MLS Week 20-22 Level Set, the Timbers Place in It & a Wee Austin Scouter

MLS to literally all of its teams.

With the Leagues Cup now behind every MLS team (look at that, clean sweep) and the home stretch on the horizon, I felt like I needed another level set on where teams are around the league. The dive ain’t deep: it’s about 80% looking for patterns over the past 10 games for every team in MLS and 20% “other” – so the analysis doesn’t go much further than “things are okay” or “Jesus Christ, are they okay?” Just to note it, going back 10 games in regular season play takes all the teams below back to the middle of May; a pretty big sample, in other words. Hopefully, the blurbs provided on each team will either confirm an impression, maybe even tell you something you didn’t already know.

As for organization, I decided to go with something simple as the playoffs: each MLS team is grouped below as either Quick (i.e., either above the playoff line or with a fair chance of getting over it by Decision Day) or Dead (i.e., unlikely to make the playoffs, present place in the standings notwithstanding). I went with that looser measure deliberately: some teams look a lot more like “contenders,” others the middlest of mid-table, and most will trot to the end of their season at the exact same clip, but a good run at the right time can go all the way to MLS Cup for any team that makes MLS’s open-armed playoff system, so why get out the fine-tooth comb when I run a ratty old brush through it?

Quick aside: looking at the 2026 standings with the rumored new playoff format floated by Larry(? (Harry? What’s his fuck?) Berg is a fun exercise. I understand the 2027-28 season will feature more conferences and, full disclosure, both eyes and ears glazed over when it was explained to me, but as I understand Berg’s proposed system, the “if the playoffs started today” line for 2026 would be drawn between the determinedly mid-table Red Bull New York and the (frankly) plummeting Seattle Sounders. Everyone on 26 points and above gets in, basically, so that’s eight teams from the East and twelve in the West (e.g., the LA Galaxy and everyone above them, basically, and at time of posting). Have to admit that’s not as bad as I thought, or not much worse than the present system, at least in terms of the invite list.

So, time to get into it. I’ve decided to start with the Dead – i.e., the teams I don't see making the 2026 playoffs – and then run through the Quick. Going backwards feels little more suspenseful, for some reason. But, before getting into that, and because this is a Portland Timbers blog, I’m going to start by seeing how both they and Austin FC, the team they host this weekend, weigh in the balance…plus I also wanted to pad the entry on Austin with a little scouting report.

Los Angeles FC 1-1 Portland Timbers: Donning the Beer Goggles, Willingly

Yes, I find it desirable. Hot, even.

Before the game kicked off, I topped my game thread by noting that I wasn’t sure what I wanted more: a good result or a good performance. The real question comes closer to what, between a lucky win and a brave loss, would give me more faith in the project.

Fun story: I got something close to both. It’s a tricky melon to cut, honestly, and depends largely on what you take from where. Let’s get into it…

Los Angeles FC 1-1 Portland Timbers
What Passes for a Match Report
Over the first 60 minutes or so, more or less the same thing happened: LAFC set up in Portland’s half, methodically probing for openings and, point in fact, finding them about 20 times. And every 12-15 minutes, Portland would finally connect a pass that got past or around LAFC’s midfield and set off a scramble that pulled their pants at least halfway off. That’s the big picture, but a fly snuck onto the projector. (Anyone keeping track of the metaphors? Where am I?)

The Timbers scored the opening goal in the fourth minute. Kristoffer Velde shagged a loose a ball out of midfield, carried it around LAFC’s right, chopped (tell me it was) Ryan Hollingshead out of stride, came inside and passed a dagger to David Da Costa. Da Costa’s run out of midfield did half the work and, dammit, there’s something to love about that near post finish. Made it smart, therefore classy. To tie that into the big picture, that goal started the timer for the game described above. LAFC created an embarrassment of chances over those long stretches of possession; James Pantemis posted five strong saves, at a minimum, over that entire period; LAFC played at least two near-perfect, grass-cutting crosses to runners breaking through a nose ahead centrally only to see said runners step over or on the pass: my butt puckered most on the latter, but all that seemed…fine somehow. LAFC could have scored two, but they, crucially, did not.

The way you feel about the game likely turns on how all the above made you feel. To pass my vote, I thought Portland could do it all night, maybe even into an extra time they don’t play in the regular season. Where a reasonable person might see a game teetering on the edge, I saw defenders in good positions on nearly every pass LAFC played(1). The chances came, clearly, but Portland consistently had a player close enough to challenge the shot or hassle the shooter. What they couldn’t cover, Pantemis back-stopped with yet another, “he’s not buying drinks tonight” performance. Pantemis’ best save may have been his first (the one on Mathieu Choniere; how does a Quebecois learn to slalom like that?), but he was still slapping ‘em away in stoppage time. (His greatest hits surely made the snapshot, yeah?)