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| On the theory they protect this brand a little less... |
Holy shit, this whole “MLS Got Back” thing is actually happening. Yeah, I could get mad, but that’s not gonna stop it. Also, I haven’t made The Witcher good by believing in it with my whole heart and the last new sporting event I watched was PBA Bowling Strike Derby (I was pulling for the other guy), though I am enjoying my third (fourth?) pass at Avatar: The Last Airbender. It holds up, fwiw.
Rather than set the scene – that’ll come later – do I think the (semi-)hermetically sealed one-site tournament in Orlando, FL, aka, The Magical World of Major League Soccer is a good idea? Put it this way: it could have been worse. I’ve read the players are pissed off at the league and have no reason to doubt that, and that’s not good. More than anything else, though, I’m profoundly relieved that I didn’t have to watch this knowing that MLS held hotel employees hostage for seven weeks to pull this off, because that would have made watching a struggle. Of course, people coming and going heightens to risk of exposure for all involved, but the hostage situation thing just feels closer to a human rights violation, so I’m going to down a dram of that poison. If you want more details on the COVID-control side of the equation, The Athletic’s write-up on “what to expect” provides it. Going the other way, you should have some idea of what COVID management looks like by now. A critical mass of players will get it or they won’t, regardless, and that’s that.
As for mechanics, all 26 MLS teams will arrive between June 24 and July 1, 2020, and the games will start on July 8 and end on August 11. Here’s how it’ll work, broadly:
“Every team will play a minimum of three group-stage matches that will count toward the regular season. The group stage will be followed by a knockout round, in which the results will not count toward the regular season. The maximum time any team would spend in Orlando would be seven weeks, and MLS will aim to return to action in home markets at the conclusion of the tournament.”
Say, that’s a fun question: will that whole “return to action in home markets at the conclusion of the tournament” thing happen? To give my honest answer, yes, and with very real trade-offs, maybe even real problems. We've got some unsavory years ahead, people...
At any rate (and fucking COVID), teams will compete in the group stages, with five of the groups consisting of four teams and one consisting of six. The top two teams from each group move on to the knockout round, along with the four third-place teams that claim various tie-breakers – you know the drill of getting to 16 teams by now. Some weirdness aside – e.g., 9 a.m. kickoff times because Florida is Hell, only with humidity – that’s it. Oh, I’m actually excited about this:
“Expect some technological innovations, too — increased number of mic’d up players and coaches, new camera angles, some types of virtual fan involvement, etc.”
Thank you, Jesus, and bring on the glitches. I’m going to mail some kind of prize to the player or coach who has the best hot-mike meltdown. That might prove to be the more compelling competition in the end…
What I’d like to do for the rest of this post is circle back to where things were all the fucking way back in March when MLS (rightly) went on hiatus, to just reset my thinking to what the state of play looked like, both going into the 2020, 25th anniversary season (which has devolved into the 25th anniversary equivalent of your son and your brother getting hammered and shitting in the pool before the party gets started), and after two weeks of action. For that, I’ll refer people to my 2020 season preview (which linked to bigger, more exhaustive previews), plus my notes on Week 1 and Week 2 of the 2020 season…which featured a surprise or two.
As anyone who cares to already knows, MLS held a…lightly-ridiculed draw for The Magical World of Major League Soccer (hereafter, “TMWMLS”) this afternoon, which got the six brackets lined up. Below, I’ll handicap each group – seriously, but not literally (damn the times) – based on the assumptions I held going into the 2020 season (see preview). Before doing that, I’ll state the obvious: a three-month hiatus with social isolation on top is an X-factor for the ages; or, in personal terms, I’m losing my fucking mind (for a variety of reasons), so I assume it’s worse for athletes – especially for teams that saw massive turnover between 2019 and 2020, e.g., Chicago Fire FC, FC Cincinnati and, for the second straight season, the Vancouver Whitecaps: Then again, maybe they’ve all got slow-breathing on lock. Anyway, enjoy the light handicapping.
Group A, aka, Mega-Group Prime: Orlando City SC, Inter Miami CF, New York City FC, Philadelphia Union, Chicago Fire FC, and Nashville FC
Frankly, I don’t rate four of these teams – Orlando (despite home-field advantage) and Chicago, because history, recent and otherwise, and also Nashville (despite a decent outing against Portland) and Miami, because expansion. As such, I expect a two-horse race between NYCFC and Philly – and even that’s tricky, based on results. I don’t think seeding will matter much – everyone will be green – but I’d give NYCFC the edge over Philly, based mostly on roster composition. The real question is whether any of the rest will take one of the third-place spots.
Group B: Seattle Sounders, FC Dallas, Vancouver Whitecaps, San Jose Earthquakes
This looks like a pretty straightforward group – Seattle and Dallas both strike me as better teams – but Seattle rebuilt its defense in the off-season and World Cup-style tournaments tend to favor solid defenses, which I think Dallas has. I’d look for San Jose to be better than Vancouver, but the Whitecaps did sneak a win out of Los Angeles during Week 2. So, maybe this one will be more fun than you think.
Group C: Toronto FC, New England Revolution, Montreal Impact, DC United
I rated TFC “boring good” in my preview, and that’s how they started – getting the results they should (for four points). I was high on the Revs going into 2020, only to see them lay two eggs in as many weeks to start the season. If any team threw me a curve over Weeks 1 and 2, it was Montreal, who managed four points where I thought they’d get one at best. With DC redeeming themselves in Week 2, Group C has the makings of a competitive group…maybe even a Group of Death?
Group D: Real Salt Lake, Sporting Kansas City, Colorado Rapids, Minnesota United FC
Nah, this is El Grupo del Morte. SKC, Colorado and Minnesota all started strong, and every one of them had decent foundations going into 2020. RSL played all right in Week 2 against the New York Red Bulls (who got winded), but they stood pat on a bad hand from 2019. This should be the fun group. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winner (of a spot in the 2021 CONCACAF Champions’ League to boot!) come out of Group D.
Group E: Atlanta United FC, FC Cincinnati, Red Bulls New York, Columbus Crew SC
I’d call this a group with clear favorites – Atlanta and Columbus. The Red Bulls looked like crap over their first two games, and I have the sneaking suspicion they’re a USL team with a few overpaid employees, so I do think Cincinnati, despite the turmoil of the 2019-20 off-season, has a solid chance of finishing somewhere other than last in this one. Columbus, for their part, showed a real capacity for grinding out results and, even without Josef Martinez, Atlanta has the most talent in this group.
Group F: Los Angeles FC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Houston Dynamo, Portland Timbers
I wondered whether LAFC losing Walker Zimmerman in the off-season would matter, and their thrilling draw against Philly in Week 2 gave one answer. Houston got fucking shelled by SKC the weekend after they drew a Galaxy team at home that lost to Vancouver at home the next weekend. Portland, my team, meanwhile, scared me in one game, and bored me to hostility in the other. If this is the Group of Death – as I’ve heard someone claim someone else did online, and that’s how you know it’s totally legit (also, RFK…wait, is it JFK, Sr.? JFC, Jr.?) – this looks less like a fire-fight than a bunch of guys with severe limps trying to run a 100.
With all the above in mind, I want to add this. Most of what I have to say above focuses on what’ll happen over the course of three games, followed by four, five, six and seven for a shrinking number of teams. As such, when it comes to qualifying for the knockout rounds, I’d put my money on teams that carried over strong teams from last season – e.g., while I’m not sure they’ll do it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle and LAFC under-perform. I think additions to certain teams, along with existing players and/or coaches settling into their roles, will matter more over the season as a whole – assuming one even happens. That said, I think this little tournament will start, it’ll finish, but I’m still expecting somewhere between 10 and 20 COVID cases to come out of it. That’s not good, obviously, but I do think human culture will err on the side of keeping things moving, and with casualties accepted. The world’s different for a bit and, when it comes to mass cooperation these days, and in America? Sometimes, there’s what you want and there’s what you get.
Rather than set the scene – that’ll come later – do I think the (semi-)hermetically sealed one-site tournament in Orlando, FL, aka, The Magical World of Major League Soccer is a good idea? Put it this way: it could have been worse. I’ve read the players are pissed off at the league and have no reason to doubt that, and that’s not good. More than anything else, though, I’m profoundly relieved that I didn’t have to watch this knowing that MLS held hotel employees hostage for seven weeks to pull this off, because that would have made watching a struggle. Of course, people coming and going heightens to risk of exposure for all involved, but the hostage situation thing just feels closer to a human rights violation, so I’m going to down a dram of that poison. If you want more details on the COVID-control side of the equation, The Athletic’s write-up on “what to expect” provides it. Going the other way, you should have some idea of what COVID management looks like by now. A critical mass of players will get it or they won’t, regardless, and that’s that.
As for mechanics, all 26 MLS teams will arrive between June 24 and July 1, 2020, and the games will start on July 8 and end on August 11. Here’s how it’ll work, broadly:
“Every team will play a minimum of three group-stage matches that will count toward the regular season. The group stage will be followed by a knockout round, in which the results will not count toward the regular season. The maximum time any team would spend in Orlando would be seven weeks, and MLS will aim to return to action in home markets at the conclusion of the tournament.”
Say, that’s a fun question: will that whole “return to action in home markets at the conclusion of the tournament” thing happen? To give my honest answer, yes, and with very real trade-offs, maybe even real problems. We've got some unsavory years ahead, people...
At any rate (and fucking COVID), teams will compete in the group stages, with five of the groups consisting of four teams and one consisting of six. The top two teams from each group move on to the knockout round, along with the four third-place teams that claim various tie-breakers – you know the drill of getting to 16 teams by now. Some weirdness aside – e.g., 9 a.m. kickoff times because Florida is Hell, only with humidity – that’s it. Oh, I’m actually excited about this:
“Expect some technological innovations, too — increased number of mic’d up players and coaches, new camera angles, some types of virtual fan involvement, etc.”
Thank you, Jesus, and bring on the glitches. I’m going to mail some kind of prize to the player or coach who has the best hot-mike meltdown. That might prove to be the more compelling competition in the end…
What I’d like to do for the rest of this post is circle back to where things were all the fucking way back in March when MLS (rightly) went on hiatus, to just reset my thinking to what the state of play looked like, both going into the 2020, 25th anniversary season (which has devolved into the 25th anniversary equivalent of your son and your brother getting hammered and shitting in the pool before the party gets started), and after two weeks of action. For that, I’ll refer people to my 2020 season preview (which linked to bigger, more exhaustive previews), plus my notes on Week 1 and Week 2 of the 2020 season…which featured a surprise or two.
As anyone who cares to already knows, MLS held a…lightly-ridiculed draw for The Magical World of Major League Soccer (hereafter, “TMWMLS”) this afternoon, which got the six brackets lined up. Below, I’ll handicap each group – seriously, but not literally (damn the times) – based on the assumptions I held going into the 2020 season (see preview). Before doing that, I’ll state the obvious: a three-month hiatus with social isolation on top is an X-factor for the ages; or, in personal terms, I’m losing my fucking mind (for a variety of reasons), so I assume it’s worse for athletes – especially for teams that saw massive turnover between 2019 and 2020, e.g., Chicago Fire FC, FC Cincinnati and, for the second straight season, the Vancouver Whitecaps: Then again, maybe they’ve all got slow-breathing on lock. Anyway, enjoy the light handicapping.
Group A, aka, Mega-Group Prime: Orlando City SC, Inter Miami CF, New York City FC, Philadelphia Union, Chicago Fire FC, and Nashville FC
Frankly, I don’t rate four of these teams – Orlando (despite home-field advantage) and Chicago, because history, recent and otherwise, and also Nashville (despite a decent outing against Portland) and Miami, because expansion. As such, I expect a two-horse race between NYCFC and Philly – and even that’s tricky, based on results. I don’t think seeding will matter much – everyone will be green – but I’d give NYCFC the edge over Philly, based mostly on roster composition. The real question is whether any of the rest will take one of the third-place spots.
Group B: Seattle Sounders, FC Dallas, Vancouver Whitecaps, San Jose Earthquakes
This looks like a pretty straightforward group – Seattle and Dallas both strike me as better teams – but Seattle rebuilt its defense in the off-season and World Cup-style tournaments tend to favor solid defenses, which I think Dallas has. I’d look for San Jose to be better than Vancouver, but the Whitecaps did sneak a win out of Los Angeles during Week 2. So, maybe this one will be more fun than you think.
Group C: Toronto FC, New England Revolution, Montreal Impact, DC United
I rated TFC “boring good” in my preview, and that’s how they started – getting the results they should (for four points). I was high on the Revs going into 2020, only to see them lay two eggs in as many weeks to start the season. If any team threw me a curve over Weeks 1 and 2, it was Montreal, who managed four points where I thought they’d get one at best. With DC redeeming themselves in Week 2, Group C has the makings of a competitive group…maybe even a Group of Death?
Group D: Real Salt Lake, Sporting Kansas City, Colorado Rapids, Minnesota United FC
Nah, this is El Grupo del Morte. SKC, Colorado and Minnesota all started strong, and every one of them had decent foundations going into 2020. RSL played all right in Week 2 against the New York Red Bulls (who got winded), but they stood pat on a bad hand from 2019. This should be the fun group. And I wouldn’t be surprised to see the winner (of a spot in the 2021 CONCACAF Champions’ League to boot!) come out of Group D.
Group E: Atlanta United FC, FC Cincinnati, Red Bulls New York, Columbus Crew SC
I’d call this a group with clear favorites – Atlanta and Columbus. The Red Bulls looked like crap over their first two games, and I have the sneaking suspicion they’re a USL team with a few overpaid employees, so I do think Cincinnati, despite the turmoil of the 2019-20 off-season, has a solid chance of finishing somewhere other than last in this one. Columbus, for their part, showed a real capacity for grinding out results and, even without Josef Martinez, Atlanta has the most talent in this group.
Group F: Los Angeles FC, Los Angeles Galaxy, Houston Dynamo, Portland Timbers
I wondered whether LAFC losing Walker Zimmerman in the off-season would matter, and their thrilling draw against Philly in Week 2 gave one answer. Houston got fucking shelled by SKC the weekend after they drew a Galaxy team at home that lost to Vancouver at home the next weekend. Portland, my team, meanwhile, scared me in one game, and bored me to hostility in the other. If this is the Group of Death – as I’ve heard someone claim someone else did online, and that’s how you know it’s totally legit (also, RFK…wait, is it JFK, Sr.? JFC, Jr.?) – this looks less like a fire-fight than a bunch of guys with severe limps trying to run a 100.
With all the above in mind, I want to add this. Most of what I have to say above focuses on what’ll happen over the course of three games, followed by four, five, six and seven for a shrinking number of teams. As such, when it comes to qualifying for the knockout rounds, I’d put my money on teams that carried over strong teams from last season – e.g., while I’m not sure they’ll do it, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Seattle and LAFC under-perform. I think additions to certain teams, along with existing players and/or coaches settling into their roles, will matter more over the season as a whole – assuming one even happens. That said, I think this little tournament will start, it’ll finish, but I’m still expecting somewhere between 10 and 20 COVID cases to come out of it. That’s not good, obviously, but I do think human culture will err on the side of keeping things moving, and with casualties accepted. The world’s different for a bit and, when it comes to mass cooperation these days, and in America? Sometimes, there’s what you want and there’s what you get.
That’s most of what I have to say on this. Oop, fer shits 'n' giggles, I wanted to take a stab at naming the four third place teams that will qualify for the knockout round. I started by knocking out 10 teams based on the above, which leaves a total of six teams in play. If I stretch a little, I feel good about saying Portland has a good shot at going straight to the knockout round out of Group F. As for the other mystery group, Group C, I'm going to go with Montreal, if only on the grounds they hit the 2020 rolling. Out of the teams left, I went with the Galaxy, the Rapids, San Jose, and...Nashville (srsly?) as the four third-place teams. I think FC Cincy has a shot, honestly, but they're also my one and only side-piece within MLS, so I might be in my emotions on that one. More than anything else, I just want something new to watch and talk about, some uncomplicated piece of distraction to bring a little happy into my life.
Am I looking forward to the tournament? No, not particularly. I’ll watch it and comment on it, but that’s just because I like talking about this stuff. But this is just a weird season. 2021 might be a weird season too. If things are still fucked up by 2020…well, if I’m being honest, whatever trifling shit that’s going on in and around MLS will be the least of our worries.
Expect some technological innovations, too — increased number of mic’d up players and coaches, new camera angles, some types of virtual fan involvement, etc.
ReplyDeleteIf you've ever watched the Nike friendlies, or any other youth tournament at the Disney WWoS you know that this means
- Low camera angles
- Lots of side views of coaches
- So much sky in the background
Hopefully we see @Shotboxer flying his drone around getting some sweet as overhead shots!
It is going to be glorious. My prize will go to the player/coach who puts real artistry into a profane outburst...
ReplyDeleteAs far as I can tell, the only way to handicap this tournament and season is to find out who's an "O" blood type on a team, combined with the daily IU intake of Vitamin D of the key players.
ReplyDeleteAnd the shi**y summer weather teams got it made, man! It'll be all-sweat tourney semifinal round of Orlando, Dallas, DC and Houston.