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| My interest, leaving... |
The general consensus, at least among the (largely) pro-labor lefties I follow, was that the players got the short-end of the deal. As argued in last week’s post, I believe the players simply don’t have leverage equal to the bastards they work for, so I’m mostly hoping they squeezed some meaningful concessions out of the league before signing on the dotted line…
…speaking of signing on the dotted line, FC Cincinnati finally did something interesting and/or not sad! To celebrate that, I’ll give them the honors of starting the weakly review. Portland will come next, followed by a little league-wide thoughts and theorizing.
FC Cincinnati (Probably?) Gets One Right
On the timeless principle that one doesn’t get dessert until one finishes her goddamn vegetables (eat your fucking vegetables, Stacy!), a couple thoughts from MLS’s Matt Doyle on where Cincinnati’s roster build is right now…or was until a couple days ago:
“Jurgen Locadia's loan goes until June and it's probably pretty fair to assume there's little interest in bringing him back long-term given he managed just 1 goal in about 1,400 minutes. I'd say the writing's on the wall for Yuya Kubo, last year's other DP signing (three goals and zero assists in 1300 minutes) as well. Plus Allan Cruz doesn't seem to be a first-choice player by Stam's reckoning, and that's no way to spend a DP slot.”
“’No. 10 is a priority, winger is a priority, center back is a priority and No. 9 is a priority,’ he told media on a conference call last week, and let's parse this a bit…”
Yes, let’s - and Gerard Nijkamp is the “he” of that sentence. Bluntly, Cincy has a horrendous number of needs and all over the field. Several players they’ve signed - and, lest we forget, who thrilled fans before extended, disappointing reveals - have not panned out - e.g., Kubo and Locadia, but also Siem de Jong. Moreover, a couple players in key positions - here, I’m thinking mainly of Kamohelo Mokotjo - still should count as unknowns. And yet there’s still that long list of needs even with those players on the roster.
Now, the good news/dessert: reports are out that Cincy is completing the signing of Brenner, a Brazilian forward, a young (21), hot-shit striker now playing for Brazil’s Sao Paulo (e.g., a big club), who’d compiled a strike-rate good enough to get some big European drooling. And Cincinnati beat them to the punch - or they ponied up more cash. I assume that Brenner answers Cincy’s need for a No. 9, but the only “player number” I use with any consistency is “No. 6,” because I don’t find the lingo clarifying all that clarifying, so I don’t bother with it much.
Even though young-DPs can come in shaky, I like this signing and I like that Brenner’s young (i.e., better him than a geezer like Lucas Podolski). Cincinnati is vividly not in a “win now” place in its history; it’s closer to “can you at long last get your shit together?” end of the progress spectrum, so a young player they might be able to build around makes more sense (the question being, will they sell him if offers come in?). Hell, even a player type that works on the field could give them a sense of what to build toward. Ideally, Brenner’ll come good right away, but I’m not one for counting chickens, etc. but, if Brenner does come good, he holds the potential to give Cincy something it has never really had: a reliable threat to keep opposing defenses honest. Speaking for myself, I welcome absolutely anything and anyone who can make the experience of watching this team something more elevating than watching 11 dudes hold on for dear life. I swear to God, every game Cincy couldn’t score first last season…
Plenty of work remains for Nijkamp & Co. - I’d call another center back a straight-up need, and they still need either a No. 10, or a semi-productive work-around therefor (e.g., I’d argue the Colorado Rapids manage to play without one) - but relief from unrelenting pressure will (or could) make life easier for every other player on the field, game in and out. While I can’t call myself optimistic, I am interested to see how Brenner works, and even that’s a nice feeling.
As for Cruz…honestly, I’m not sure what to think about him till I see how Cincy tries to play in 2021.
All Quiet on the Timbers Front
With the off-season shaping up to be dull AF, I’ll just say I can’t wait see my Portland Timbers back on the field. I saw there’s some video knocking around about Sebastian Blanco’s return from injury, but I doubt I’ll watch it (whether or not he recovers is a yes/no; it’s not complicated). I saw the re-signed Eryk Williamson to a “multi-year” contract and that makes me happy, but that’s just the status quo - though I did enjoy watching Ross Smith’s short highlight reel snuff film of Eryk’s better moments from 2020. Oh, and I read a couple bios Josecarlos Van Rankin, and he sounds promising…
…but, more than anything else, I just want to see Portland kicking the damn ball again. Wait, first I want to see them sign a center back, then I want to see them kick the damn ball again.
And…that’s it for the two teams I follow. At time of writing, I’m expecting more of the same from Portland in 2021, and I still don’t know what to expect from Cincinnati. That said, it is nice to actually want to sit down for an FC Cincy game, because that bird flew way goddamn south about two-thirds into 2020.
League-Wide Round Up
As for the rest of the league, especially now that it seems MLS fans will get a season, I wanted to key off Matt Doyle’s Eastern Conference and Western Conference roster status posts to give a sharper and far shorter reset of what the league-wide hierarchy looks like with just…carry the one…15 days to until preseason begins (that’ll be February 22nd; I’m counting today mostly gone). The plan is less to go deep, than to get some sense of connect where everyone was at the end of 2020 with where they look to be at the beginning of 2021.
I’m going to start the only place that truly matters - e.g., identifying the teams who looked to have a real chance at winning the 2020 MLS Cup. To use the final 2020 standings as a guide, I include the following in that group:
Philadelphia Union
Columbus Crew SC
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders FC
Minnesota United FC
Timbers fans have probably noticed Portland’s absence, and here’s my thought/defense on that: by the time the playoffs started, I believed then and now that the team had simply lost too many attacking players to run through the maze and lift the 2020 MLS Cup - and that’s why they’re not in that group. It’s possible some form of the same argument applied to any of the five teams I did name, but I don’t follow any of those teams closely enough to know that. As such, that’s the group of teams that, barring changes, I’d still call contenders heading into 2021.
Now, if Portland can keep even its existing roster on the field through 2021 - or at least for the right parts of it - I’d call them a contender. I don’t see them lifting the Supporters’ Shield or anything, even if they sign a center back able to push the two main starers (Larrys Mabiala and Dario Zuparic) - aging legs don't align so good with week-to-week consistency - but, if the Timbers can hit the post-season reasonably healthy, they have as good a foundation that those above teams had going into the 2020 playoffs…
…the question is, what’s happened since?
What comes below gets a little sloppy, and for a couple reasons. First, and this is me paraphrasing/reinterpreting Matt Doyle’s content, I counted 13 teams who have substantial rebuilding left to do - e.g., teams so thin at, say, center back that they’d leave a reasonable person no choice but to write-down their chances for success in 2021. And that’s the thing I’m really after with this exercise, nailing down which teams look like they have a chance of success right now. With that, the first question:
Who’s Still a Clear Contender?
By keeping pretty much everyone and adding new pieces (e.g., Kevin Molino, Bradley Wright-Phillips and, sure, Perry Kitchen), Columbus looks sure to stay in this group and I’m going to defer to Doyle’s closer read on them and keep Philadelphia in there too. After an extended argument with myself (I won!), I decided to keep Sporting KC in this lofty mix, mostly because they people they dropped - e.g., Matt Besler, Gerso Fernandes, Erik Hurtado and Felipe Gutierrez - just don’t strike me as the beating heart of that team, plus they made additions (Remi Walter and Nicolas Isimat-Mirin) to plug those holes. I’ve already thrown in my caveated take on the Timbers (another X-factor, if Hell freezes over and Diego Chara’s legs give out, they’ll fall out of this group), but enough questions surround the other two teams as I type that I wouldn’t automatically assume they can make a run. And that’s the next question…
Why Aren’t They Contenders?
Minnesota lost its biggest, best X-Factor when Molino walked out the door, and I hear they’re pretty damn bereft at forward/striker; good bones, which they have, only carry a team so far. As for Seattle, if they’d just lost Jordan Morris, I wouldn’t have thought much of it, but dropping Joevin Jones, Kelvin Leerdam, Roman Torres, and, yes, even Gustav Svensson feels like too much disruption; that said, who doesn’t expect them to pull a couple killers out of their asses during the summer window and flip the script…the bastards. To follow up on that last point, I am by no means writing off either Seattle or Minnesota. I expect both to stay in the mix even as is, because, 1) they have good foundations, and 2) I expect both of them will resolve these existing issues, it’s just not clear whether or how well it’ll come off. And that brings us to the next set of teams…
Who Is Clearly in the Mix?
I’d put four teams in this group right now: Orlando City SC, the New England Revolution, Los Angeles FC, and, my personal 2021 dark horse, FC Dallas. In no particular order, LAFC has already reloaded (Corey Baird and Marco Farfan), renewed (Jesus David Murillo), they didn’t give up anyone and they still have a DP spot (how?). New England threw off some baggage (old, formerly popular players like Diego Fagundez, Kelyn Rowe and Lee Nguyen) and added a couple guys in helpful places (Wilfrid Kaptoum and Christian Mafla) to another already strong team; throw a starting center back onto the pile and they’re probably around Portland’s level. Orlando (probably) lost Daryl Dike, added a couple college kids, and have largely stood pat besides, but they held a good hand and have a good system - and Doyle makes a good argument for the college kids. Finally, FC Dallas added some intriguing additions and/or options to an already strong team. That alone is enough to make me nervous about the West, generally (and Portland’s place in it).
Up next…
Questions, but Not a lot of Worries
I don’t know what to think about Toronto FC, but they’ll probably be good again. I mean, I get this wrong every damn season and Chris Armas can’t fuck ‘em up that bad…right?
I expect the Rapids will fall off a bit, especially since they’ve opted to stand pat - they finished 5th in the West, fer Crissakes - but they’ve built a durable, stingy, yet affordable team.
Atlanta United FC finished 12th in the East in 2020 and I’ll be shocked if they don’t do better - and quite a bit. That would upset a lot of apple carts in the East.
New York City FC has a ton of blank/tentative spaces. They also have the resources to fill them and a good record for doing it well.
I read Nashville SC has a big pile of MLS Buckz** and they’re returning a solid core. They’re a case of “watch what they do,” but they seem likely to hold steady at worst (which was good for 7th in the East).
I keep reading good things about Houston Dynamo FC’s intra-league rebuild and don’t see how they can’t improve on their 12th place finish from 2020. Going the other way, I have yet to hear or read about anyone saying, “look out for Houston,” which puts their ceiling about where Nashville’s appears to be.
The San Jose Earthquakes shed a lot of dead wood and added a DP Matias Almeyda has worked with before (Eduardo “Chofis” Lopez). The foundation is there, but I think they’ll stall near where they finished last year (8th) without new additions.
Finally…
Too Many Questions
First things first, this is where I put Cincinnati till further notice. And a solid preseason, if they can pull one off…
Red Bull New York seem content with twiddling their thumbs, which seems strange for all the work they have to do…and until they do it, they're the same crappy team from last season.
I don’t know what to think about Club de Foot Montreal, but see above. Mime's a wasting, fellas.
In a bit of a fun stunner, the Los Angeles Galaxy has as many things to figure out as Cincinnati - e.g., who to add where and how to line them up. They just have a better history.
DC United have to get better - it’s almost implausible that they won’t - but I look at their roster and despair.
Chicago Fire FC has added some young, intriguing pieces and I read they’ve got a healthy pile of MLS Buckz, but they have held onto that tiki doll for so damn long…cursed, I tell you…(Brady Bunch reference...we're all on board, right?)
Inter Miami CF also added a coach (hi, Phil!), but, because they botched their original roster build, and badly, it looks like they’re rolling into Year 2 on the plan, “I hope those guys we spent everything on get better.”
Austin FC laid down a good foundation, from the looks of it, but an expansion team is an expansion team and the West looks like it’s gonna be nuts in 2021.
Then again, Real Salt Lake is a fucking mess, few prospects and no ownership, so they’re probably better off than them.
And, finally, I’m starting to believe the Vancouver Whitecaps are a badly-designed figment of my imagination, the phantom limb of Cascadia, if you will. I think they should re-write the chant without Vancouver.
Yeah, yeah, it fell apart toward the end, hit the limits of my knowledge and interest. Hopefully, I’ll have something a little narrower to kick around next week. And, before too much time passes, I’ll have results to kick around. Till next week...
** "MLS Buckz" is a collective term intended to encompass all the MLS funny-money (e.g., TAM, GAM, and other), places in the allocation order and all the other bullshit that refuses to operate on a straight cash basis and that I therefore ignore.
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