Monday, May 10, 2021

MLS Weakly, MLS Week 4: Results Round-Up & Some Loose Theories (and Yeah, Yeah, Yeah, I Know)

Showed up under "schneid," so...
Yeah, yeah, yeah, I said I wasn’t going to post these anymore. Look, I didn’t lie. I just changed my mind.

This will not be long, this will not be detailed. Per the title’s promise, what follows are nothing but loose thoughts on the general state of the 27 teams across Major League Soccer and a sense of their general direction. Here goes…

It was a weekend of eye-catching results, from the San Jose Earthquakes pinching three points against Real Salt Lake in Utah through Nashville SC getting off their early-season schneid - and against the New England Revolution to boot - to Minnesota United FC staying very, puzzlingly attached to what can only be called “The Doom Schneid” and all the way down to the Vancouver Whitecaps getting fitted for the “Kings of Canada” crown - even if they’re as likely to get a brief regency over a full reign.

To pick at those in no particular order, both San Jose and RSL present as capable teams at the moment, with the ‘Quakes seemingly greater efficiency duly noted. Minnesota’s almost tangible lack of belief makes it hard to get a read on the team what beat ‘em (2-3), the Colorado Rapids, but it is worth pointing out that this was Colorado’s second win…the former of which came against none other than Vancouver. As for the whole “Kings of Canada” thing, that’s less about Vancouver - but hold that thought - than what looks like Club du Foot du Montreal bumping against their ceiling in a 0-2 road loss to the 'Caps and Toronto FC doing what it can to satisfy my doubts about both them and Chris Armas. To close out Vancouver, they present as a team that defends well enough and scores just enough - i.e., a formula that brings a middling, yet respectable level of success.

Nashville feels like a harder read for two reasons that point in opposite directions: 1) the way they’ve created chances signaled this result was coming; 2) their current (or present?) strike-force feature Dominic Badji and C. J. Sapong, neither of whom have a great history as high-return strikers. That doesn’t make their 2-0 win over a Revs team most people rate (and still rate, I imagine) any less impressive; it just keeps expectations reasonable.

To loop back to Toronto, they’ve looked shaky enough in this young season that it shouldn’t surprise anyone to see Red Bull New York shake them down for two goals in an 0-2 loss. The Red Bulls appear to have recovered their relentlessness - their first goal was a call-back to the mid-2010s classics for them - but the sharper question is whether they can regain their ruthlessness.

Toronto lost CONCACAF Champions’ League fatigue as an excuse thanks to both Columbus Crew SC and the Philadelphia Union tearing up that excuse with what looked like comfortable wins over DC United and…just a really, really bad Chicago Fire FC, respectively. That said, neither win looked all that elegant; it feels closer to see Columbus (by forcing own-goals) and Philly (by wrecking-ball set-pieces) bludgeoned them into submission. It also bears noting that both teams seemed to do just about every little thing better than either DC or Chicago.

I commented at length on the other “CCL Hangover” match-up - the Portland Timbers' convoluted 1-2 home loss to the Seattle Sounders - in a separate post, so I’ll mostly direct your attention to that. The short version: I do believe Portland will find their feet in the weeks ahead (there, I’m talking June, but hoping for earlier), while Seattle takes the formula described above for Vancouver and removes the qualifiers: they look strong defensively and definitely have the weapons to win games right now - and they haven’t even made mid-summer acquisitions yet.

That game was part of “rivalry week,” and Week 4 featured several different varieties of those. Whatever anyone thinks about either team and their prospects, Atlanta United FC’s visit to Inter Miami CF ended with what looked like (over the last 15 minutes) a fairly unremarkable 1-1 draw; the only thing I’d flag is that Miami has shown an ability to stay in games that should make FC Cincinnati nervous about their home opener. The main courses happened in Texas, where FC Dallas and Houston Dynamo FC knotted at 1-1, and in California, where an improve Los Angeles Galaxy (now with resiliency!) survived what I’d heard described as an onslaught by Los Angeles FC to take all three points in a 2-1 win. I had odd festering doubts about LAFC going into 2021, but those had less to do with anything recent than a general sense that they either couldn’t impose their formula as reliably as they used to, or that the rest of the league has figured out how to manage it. The Galaxy, meanwhile, has started 2021 like they intend to compete this season; I’d flag their first goal as the signal for that, while also crediting Chicharito for visibly shaking off a wasted 2020.

The Texas “derby” looked a little less interesting in that neither team stood on the other and gave the kind of “wow” performance they’d need to look like serious teams. That said, and based on the season so far, I’d rather be Houston for now…it’s the intangibles…

Sticking with Texas, I caught only bits and pieces of Austin’s 1-2 loss at Sporting Kansas City, but I did tune in in time to see the latter claw back all three points. A road game against any team of confidence and quality - e.g., SKC - strikes me as the kind of place where the 2021 debutantes will bump into their limitations…then again, Austin did ambush Colorado two weekends ago, and that opens up a second set of questions. In either case…noted.

Unless I counted wrong, that leaves the draw between Orlando City SC and New York City FC down in Florida. Between running out of time and seeing a version of the result I expected, I’ll just note the 1-1 final score and restate my expectation that both teams should stick in the top half of the Eastern Conference for the most part in the season ahead.

To wrap up all of the above in a clipped version of the stock-up, stock-down format, I’d say the following:

1) I think Toronto made an already fragile situation worse by hiring Chris Armas, and that Greg Vanney looks well positioned to prove wrong my doubts about him;

2) I wouldn’t worry about LAFC terrorizing the league in the near-term, but would worry about Seattle doing so;

3) Some perennial strugglers - e.g., Chicago, DC, and maybe Montreal - don’t look like they’ve left their struggles behind. Given that those are all Eastern Conference teams gives FC Cincinnati an opening…which they may or may not take; and

4) Nashville strikes me as a good bet to pull things back together, while Minnesota absolutely does not. I mean, I saw them 2-0 up…and to fall apart like that. Oh, the ignominy!

That’s all for this one.

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