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| The view from 2019-2021. Fucker looks massive. |
I decided to park on a review of FC Cincinnati’s 2022 season for a variety of reasons – the choice to check out in mid-July among them (it’s possible my middle name, “Anders,” is Norwegian for “erratic”) – but not really knowing how to read their season-ending 0-1 loss to the now-MLS-Cup-bound Philadelphia Union played its part as well. In so many words, I understood Cincy had defied virtually every observer’s expectations, but couldn’t really place them in a league-wide context.
Seeing both Philadelphia and Los Angeles FC kick great lumps out of the opposition in their respective semifinals – though, just to note it, LAFC played a more one-way game – went some distance to filling in that blank. FC Cincinnati didn’t just have their best-ever season, they had a very good one. To lift a line out of Matt Doyle’s year-end review:
“’Everything from June 18 to Decision Day is the highlight’ also has an argument, as over that 20-game stretch, Cincy lost just twice. That’s the best of anybody in MLS.”
The bitter little boy who lives inside my head compels me to point out that 10 of those games ended as draws, a point Doyle concedes sotto voce when he notes that “Cincy dropped more points from leading positions this year than anyone but the Revs” (and is it just me or did five teams drop the most points from leading positions? I’ve read that stat somewhere for at least three teams). That bitter little boy missed a deeper truth that I thought I’d written at some point this season, but, because I can’t find it, here it is again: those ten draws meant that Cincinnati went toe-to-toe against all kinds of teams, six of them future playoff teams (including New York City FC), and gave away very little. Call that a long of saying that all those dropped points didn’t matter after Decision Day: what mattered was that Cincy showed they stood just as high as (literally) half the teams in Major League Soccer. And, when you’ve got that, getting into the playoffs amounts to having a chance in every game going forward. As Red Bull New York learned in the hardest of ways.
All that’s better than laudable. It’s beautiful, especially given the dark slapstick that came before. From there, the question becomes how to get better in 2023.
The rest of this post will be an exercise in thinking out loud about that question. I’m not much of a metrics guy – the ongoing stats revolution has always struck me as saying things like “they’re creating chances but struggling to finish them off” and “the fucker always passes sideways” only with numbers – and there’s also that whole thing about me checking out in July. Bottom line, I know FC Cincinnati less then some, but better than most people who follow MLS. I have my blind-spots – e.g., “Matt Miazga (CB): Had a Nwobodo-esque effect on the defense, as their goals against dropped from 1.8/game without Miazga to 1.3/game with him”; did not know that and I missed most of the Miazga Experience - but, based on most of what I see from the Cincinnati content-creators I follow and what I read in Doyle’s thing and a Cincinnati.com year-ender, I rate most of the same players everyone else does...which puts pointed questions to whether this adds value (shhh, sshhhhh, sshhhhhhhhhhhhhhh). Moving on...
It's possible I’ve missed a decision or two, but the only named player departure so far was Allan Cruz – a loss for him, and best of luck to him, but he hadn’t played a big role in years by my count and felt like an easy cut. Things get hard from here: who else would you cut? Who are the weak links?
Asking the question from the other side ends with an obvious, unhelpful answer: of course there are better players out there in the wide, wide world. Even the follow-up isn’t terribly enlightening: if Chris Albright can find and sign any player better than the guy he’ll replace on the roster, of course he should sign him. Related, that Cincinnati.com article defined the core of the team like so:
“FC Cincinnati's core group of players is in place and under contract for years to come. It's a group that consists of goalkeeper Roman Celentano, Miazga, defensive midfielder Obinna Nwobodo, Acosta, and Vazquez.”
And, my tiny sampling of observing Miazga in the wild aside, I call that a decent core – and who else besides this guy forgot about Alec Kann? The same article addressed the reality that another team may make a bid for Brenner – and Doyle raised the possibility that the same could happen with Brandon Vazquez – but, assuming Cincy can hold onto those two guys plus Luciano Acosta, the team pretty much has “their guys,” at least as far as the pointy end of the attack comes. That’s one area resolved for the most part; they could use a reliable fourth option, sure, maybe even a good late-running midfielder, something like what Cruz used to do. Maybe they can swing an upgrade for Dominique Badji...but wasn’t that why Sergio Santos came in? Again, assuming Cincy can hold onto that front three, I think the solutions come from elsewhere.
That’s not a lonely opinion by any means. Doyle offered two thoughts: finding upgrades for Junior Moreno and Alvas Powell. FCC Analysis seconded both motions – they even put a spin on Doyle’s point that teams are always looking for good center backs (FCC Analysis wants one who can pass). I don’t disagree with either call, while also thinking that finding an available upgrade for either player won’t come easy. For his limitations in the attack, Alvas became the wrecking ball in defense he’d been during his Timbers years, something a team shouldn’t give up lightly.
Things get trickier around Moreno, and some of that turns out what you think of Nwobodo. Doyle flagged some statistics on the latter that feel like they have broader application than he noted:
“Obinna Nwobodo (DM): 9W-4L-10D with a +14 goal differential in his 23 starts… 3W-5L-3D, -6 goal differential in the other 11 games Cincy played. The numbers are telling the truth.”
It’s the draws that jump out of there for me, even with the thin split with wins (i.e., they won nine, drew 10). Based on what I’ve seen – again, see post-July hiatus – most of Nwobodo’s upside comes from work-rate, tackling and getting the ball off his foot and up-field quickly, the simpler the better. My general impression was that Nwobodo and Moreno operated as a double-pivot – i.e., neither excels at passing or adds a noticeable extra something to the attack – but the way I see Nwobodo’s game tells he could be the player to stay back, destroy and get the ball going the other way. A traditional No. 6, in other words, if with a little terrier in the tank. FCC Analysis took a similar view, but I lean harder toward thinking Cincy needs a No. 8 who can be that fourth piece to the attack – or the fifth; it’s not like Alvaro Barreal didn’t contribute, and in more ways than one.
Seeing both Philadelphia and Los Angeles FC kick great lumps out of the opposition in their respective semifinals – though, just to note it, LAFC played a more one-way game – went some distance to filling in that blank. FC Cincinnati didn’t just have their best-ever season, they had a very good one. To lift a line out of Matt Doyle’s year-end review:
“’Everything from June 18 to Decision Day is the highlight’ also has an argument, as over that 20-game stretch, Cincy lost just twice. That’s the best of anybody in MLS.”
The bitter little boy who lives inside my head compels me to point out that 10 of those games ended as draws, a point Doyle concedes sotto voce when he notes that “Cincy dropped more points from leading positions this year than anyone but the Revs” (and is it just me or did five teams drop the most points from leading positions? I’ve read that stat somewhere for at least three teams). That bitter little boy missed a deeper truth that I thought I’d written at some point this season, but, because I can’t find it, here it is again: those ten draws meant that Cincinnati went toe-to-toe against all kinds of teams, six of them future playoff teams (including New York City FC), and gave away very little. Call that a long of saying that all those dropped points didn’t matter after Decision Day: what mattered was that Cincy showed they stood just as high as (literally) half the teams in Major League Soccer. And, when you’ve got that, getting into the playoffs amounts to having a chance in every game going forward. As Red Bull New York learned in the hardest of ways.
All that’s better than laudable. It’s beautiful, especially given the dark slapstick that came before. From there, the question becomes how to get better in 2023.
The rest of this post will be an exercise in thinking out loud about that question. I’m not much of a metrics guy – the ongoing stats revolution has always struck me as saying things like “they’re creating chances but struggling to finish them off” and “the fucker always passes sideways” only with numbers – and there’s also that whole thing about me checking out in July. Bottom line, I know FC Cincinnati less then some, but better than most people who follow MLS. I have my blind-spots – e.g., “Matt Miazga (CB): Had a Nwobodo-esque effect on the defense, as their goals against dropped from 1.8/game without Miazga to 1.3/game with him”; did not know that and I missed most of the Miazga Experience - but, based on most of what I see from the Cincinnati content-creators I follow and what I read in Doyle’s thing and a Cincinnati.com year-ender, I rate most of the same players everyone else does...which puts pointed questions to whether this adds value (shhh, sshhhhh, sshhhhhhhhhhhhhhh). Moving on...
It's possible I’ve missed a decision or two, but the only named player departure so far was Allan Cruz – a loss for him, and best of luck to him, but he hadn’t played a big role in years by my count and felt like an easy cut. Things get hard from here: who else would you cut? Who are the weak links?
Asking the question from the other side ends with an obvious, unhelpful answer: of course there are better players out there in the wide, wide world. Even the follow-up isn’t terribly enlightening: if Chris Albright can find and sign any player better than the guy he’ll replace on the roster, of course he should sign him. Related, that Cincinnati.com article defined the core of the team like so:
“FC Cincinnati's core group of players is in place and under contract for years to come. It's a group that consists of goalkeeper Roman Celentano, Miazga, defensive midfielder Obinna Nwobodo, Acosta, and Vazquez.”
And, my tiny sampling of observing Miazga in the wild aside, I call that a decent core – and who else besides this guy forgot about Alec Kann? The same article addressed the reality that another team may make a bid for Brenner – and Doyle raised the possibility that the same could happen with Brandon Vazquez – but, assuming Cincy can hold onto those two guys plus Luciano Acosta, the team pretty much has “their guys,” at least as far as the pointy end of the attack comes. That’s one area resolved for the most part; they could use a reliable fourth option, sure, maybe even a good late-running midfielder, something like what Cruz used to do. Maybe they can swing an upgrade for Dominique Badji...but wasn’t that why Sergio Santos came in? Again, assuming Cincy can hold onto that front three, I think the solutions come from elsewhere.
That’s not a lonely opinion by any means. Doyle offered two thoughts: finding upgrades for Junior Moreno and Alvas Powell. FCC Analysis seconded both motions – they even put a spin on Doyle’s point that teams are always looking for good center backs (FCC Analysis wants one who can pass). I don’t disagree with either call, while also thinking that finding an available upgrade for either player won’t come easy. For his limitations in the attack, Alvas became the wrecking ball in defense he’d been during his Timbers years, something a team shouldn’t give up lightly.
Things get trickier around Moreno, and some of that turns out what you think of Nwobodo. Doyle flagged some statistics on the latter that feel like they have broader application than he noted:
“Obinna Nwobodo (DM): 9W-4L-10D with a +14 goal differential in his 23 starts… 3W-5L-3D, -6 goal differential in the other 11 games Cincy played. The numbers are telling the truth.”
It’s the draws that jump out of there for me, even with the thin split with wins (i.e., they won nine, drew 10). Based on what I’ve seen – again, see post-July hiatus – most of Nwobodo’s upside comes from work-rate, tackling and getting the ball off his foot and up-field quickly, the simpler the better. My general impression was that Nwobodo and Moreno operated as a double-pivot – i.e., neither excels at passing or adds a noticeable extra something to the attack – but the way I see Nwobodo’s game tells he could be the player to stay back, destroy and get the ball going the other way. A traditional No. 6, in other words, if with a little terrier in the tank. FCC Analysis took a similar view, but I lean harder toward thinking Cincy needs a No. 8 who can be that fourth piece to the attack – or the fifth; it’s not like Alvaro Barreal didn’t contribute, and in more ways than one.
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| Always, always up there. |
In far fewer words, I’d labor on with Powell if it meant splashing a little cash to get a midfielder who fits the above profile – i.e., Powell’s more limitation than problem. Moreover, my guess is the team could get some kind of value for Moreno (or Powell, for that matter), which is something I’m not sure I can say about a player who has always bedeviled me, no matter how much I respect him: Yuya Kubo. I see him listed as a designated player on FC Cincinnati’s current roster, and that speaks very directly to the devilment: I don’t think any team in MLS would take him on a DP contract; I don’t think many would take a real salary hit to pick him up (e.g., TAM, a concept I refuse to understand), an idea that makes up a big part of how I rate players. I know nothing about Kubo’s current contract status, but I’d also call him expensive for what he provides for the team. So, if I could find a way to cut him, keep Moreno, while still finding that midfield upgrade, that’s what I’d do.
All in all, there just isn’t much fat to cut and/or suction out in a pain-free out-patient procedure. Upgrading this team won’t come easy and for the low-key obvious reason that it’s a pretty good team. The only other player I’d waive or drop would be Geoff Cameron, but I also get antsy about older players in a way that flirts with ageism with closing-time intensity. If Albright gave me the keys to the rebuild and gave Pat Noonan (who has done a damn fine job, in my mind) a veto on any idiocies, I’d try to find my unicorn No. 8, and sign a promising replacement for Cameron and a back-up for Powell that projects to defend well and has the final-pass upside he doesn’t. After that, I’d hope Matarrita can get whole and roll with that until the good Lord and bad results made me pick up the dice again.
I don’t think I’m alone in admitting that FC Cincinnati’s turn-around surprised me like Christmas used to do when I was, like, ten and that little boy didn’t live in my head. And that little shit’s already in my ear about the feasibility of a repeat performance with most of the same players, but who knows? If I had to flag the biggest potential disaster – and I never thought I’d type this – it would be Brenner moving on. I never thought I’d see that guy come good while wearing Orange and Blue, but if he didn’t produce the way he did in 2022, literally none of all that good stuff would have happened.
As much as that's a scary thought, I think 2023 will be a good year for FC Cincinnati. A healthy body doesn’t break down just like that, at least not without injuries or, say, losing a limb upon which one relies. At the same time.........it’s gonna be more stressful. Because expectations.
All in all, there just isn’t much fat to cut and/or suction out in a pain-free out-patient procedure. Upgrading this team won’t come easy and for the low-key obvious reason that it’s a pretty good team. The only other player I’d waive or drop would be Geoff Cameron, but I also get antsy about older players in a way that flirts with ageism with closing-time intensity. If Albright gave me the keys to the rebuild and gave Pat Noonan (who has done a damn fine job, in my mind) a veto on any idiocies, I’d try to find my unicorn No. 8, and sign a promising replacement for Cameron and a back-up for Powell that projects to defend well and has the final-pass upside he doesn’t. After that, I’d hope Matarrita can get whole and roll with that until the good Lord and bad results made me pick up the dice again.
I don’t think I’m alone in admitting that FC Cincinnati’s turn-around surprised me like Christmas used to do when I was, like, ten and that little boy didn’t live in my head. And that little shit’s already in my ear about the feasibility of a repeat performance with most of the same players, but who knows? If I had to flag the biggest potential disaster – and I never thought I’d type this – it would be Brenner moving on. I never thought I’d see that guy come good while wearing Orange and Blue, but if he didn’t produce the way he did in 2022, literally none of all that good stuff would have happened.
As much as that's a scary thought, I think 2023 will be a good year for FC Cincinnati. A healthy body doesn’t break down just like that, at least not without injuries or, say, losing a limb upon which one relies. At the same time.........it’s gonna be more stressful. Because expectations.
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