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| Let the image go blurry...you'll see Raffi, I promise. |
Something else that’s in my head as I type this: because 2024 was my first full season on the Timbers subreddit, I have a lot more voices rattling around up there. That’s not all bad, of course – a broader perspective is good! – but digging through any accumulation of detail(/clutter) inevitably pushes you toward the trees side of the forest/trees equation and this just feels like a moment to focus on the forest, maybe figure out why all those fucking trees caught on fire all season long?
That absorption on detail expressed itself in a singular way this season, if just for me (and, obviously, nobody pushed me into all those subreddit rabbit-holes) – i.e., a loose perception that every player on the team was, in so many words, more or less fine. To be clear, yes, people on the Timbers sub-reddit (hereafter, “Over There”) did eventually start naming names – e.g., Zac McGraw ain’t doing so good, even if Kamal Miller’s making that a contest, and some dude Over There mounted what started as a lonely campaign calling for James Pantemis to start over Maxime Crepeau and, for all doubt, even ridicule that guy endured…Pantemis did, in fact, take over the starting job – but just about every player had their champion, and several of them more often than not. When faced with a team that finished 9th in the West, aka, hanging on by a rotted toe, that idea just doesn’t hold up. Call it a paradox, call an argument for firing the coach, or just some specific coaches, or for firing the general manager, but just the loose sentiment says more about how fandom works than anything about the Timbers’ 2024 season.
Think of the above as framing for everything that comes below. I’d like to add one more thought before digging in, and this realization comes from time spent Over There: there are scores of fans who know details I have any intention of learning and who, for lack of a better word, care more deeply about this team than I ever will – and that last line, in particular, applies to roster construction in spades, with bells on, backed by a chorus of chubby angels. That doesn’t always lead to the clearest insights (see above), but I almost certainly learned more than I want to admit from that beautiful mob of raving randos.
With the preamble done, let’s take a look at the body – or, more to the point, how it got to the graveyard. The rest of this post-mortem will stagger between identifying a problem and pointing to a player who, whether by talent or the demands from the coaching staff, may have contributed to said problem. With that, allons y!.
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| Scraping the bottom of the barrel, finding good things... |
To start with an under-discussed theory: the Portland Timbers 2024 season unfolded made sense – and in a way that was more or less acknowledged in real time. To recap (from the Form Guide), the schedule handed the Timbers had a run of brutal-on-paper games that, in fact, did leave them winless from March 17th (@ Houston) through May 4th (@ Charlotte), though one could arguably stretch the general bad vibes/run to May 19th, when Portland lost at Minnesota. There’s plenty to quibble with in there – e.g., did the Timbers burn a mini-miracle with that away win at NYCFC on March 9th? how many of those games (e.g., the 3-3 draw @ SKC) look like blown opportunities against the season as a whole? is Seattle at home a gimme (nope!) – but one strong argument comes out regardless of the details: all those early games looked tough as they proved to be Portland accumulated points accordingly.
When the Timbers revived their season – a (happy!) period that (again, arguably) started with home wins versus San Jose and SKC and carried maybe into the Leagues Cup, maybe to the late-mid September home win over the Galaxy* – the flipside of the above equation kicked in. Whether by quality – e.g., San Jose was reliably awful this season – or circumstance – e.g., playing key games at home against Minnesota, Nashville and RSL when those teams were at or near their worst – the Timbers played a stretch of easier games from the late-middle of May to the middle of July, and they accumulated points accordingly.
That run of results, regardless of where you end it(*), gave the Timbers/new coach Phil Neville a chance to prove they had built a team that was, for lack of a better word, good. I don’t think anyone expected Portland to beat RSL and Vancouver on the road toward the end of the season– and, honestly, forcing both teams to split a point felt like a positive at the time – but that still pushed the weight of proving that Portland had what it takes on the back-to-back home games versus Austin and Dallas. The home record was strong to that point, neither team travelled well and, if memory serves, both hung lower in the standings; Timbers fans had every reason to expect four points, believe in all six and dream of hitting the playoffs humming...which emphatically did not happen.
Who knew that the 4-2 win over OG LA would be Portland’s last win of the 2024 season? Very much related, who knew the league’s tied-for-fourth-best offense would dry up over the season’s past six games? At time of writing, I have just one answer to both questions: not me. It wasn’t all mysteries, of course - the defense never stopped being a mess – but even there I’m confident you could get at least six answers as to what was wrong.
All of the above brings me to the central question of the Portland Timbers’ 2024 season: did something go wrong down the stretch, or was a finger-nail’s grasp on the post-season the best-case scenario from First Kick 2024 for this Portland Timbers team?
Theory 1 (and I Feel Good About This): The Timbers Played to Their Level
You don’t even need to pull anomalies out of the equation before you arrive at a blunt reality about Portland’s 2024 season: they don’t have many eye-catching results and, once you throw form and circumstance of the opposition into the mix, they may not have had any on the right side of bonafide. Even if the how of it felt gratuitous, the Timbers’ season ended right around when it should have. They never threatened to shake up anything more consequential than the ass-end of the playoff picture. And winning a trophy? Not even close to on the cards.. And yet, it takes looking at the season in profile to see how far off they were. Moving on, now, to the paradox/problem/conundrum:
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| A little too on the nose? |
That asshole, Merritt Paulson, spent real money to improve the Timbers roster over the past couple seasons: Evander didn’t come cheap, and neither did Jonathan Rodriguez. No less to the point, both players produced DP-level numbers during their time with the Timbers: sixteen goals and seven assists for Rodriguez, and 24 goals and 24 assists for Evander since his arrival. I don’t need to tell any Timbers fan that Felipe Mora posted solid numbers (fourteen goals, six assists), so it’s not like the F.O. has done nothing but piss away cash on utterly ineffectual players. Even if you call him a cast-off, they brought in Mason Toye to bulk up the front-line (damn shame about his back) and, with the backline thinning out, they called Finn Surman in or up. Call of the sum of that anything you like – less than desired springs to mind - but you can’t deny it all counts as investment and resources poured into building a competitive team. So…what went wrong...and, yes, the whole thing about how this season ended makes Paulson's early season "dick-swinging" about "not fucking around" makes him the butt of a very funny joke. And not for the first time.
What Is Wrong with the Rest of the Roster?
Things get ugly from here, something that I believe can’t be avoided, but I have a couple pull-outs that I want to take from the above before I get into that.
While There Is No “I” in “Team,” There Is an “I” in “Timbers”
For all the goals they scored over the 2024 season, Portland always looked more opportunistic than connected. That went well, the fans had fun, etc., but having considered, collectively-constructed options generally works better than, say, giving the ball to this ringer (Evander) or that method (Mosquera to Rodriguez), and hoping that opposing teams won’t figure out a way to contain it or shut it down entirely. For what it’s worth, I don’t think fans put enough thought into accepting that some goal-scoring droughts happen not because this or that player failed, but because the opposition came up with a game-plan to make him do so.
This is a soft theory (as in, I doubt I could collect the data to prove it, and have less interest in trying to), but I believe that Portland’s inability to play with the ball hurt them, not just this season, but for the past several. I’ve seen people argue that the some number of players on the roster simply don’t have the touch and composure to play that game, but – and I’m confessing a clear bias here – I refuse to believe any player can make a modern professional roster without the capacity to play some possession soccer. I see that as a problem for the Timbers for one key reason (there may be more): it gives them only one mode in which to operate. I don’t mean to overstate the point – we’ve all seen Portland players pass the ball backwards, sideways, even out-of-bounds – but the Timbers play for maximal forward momentum to a fault. For all the results delivered over the season, it’s predictable in practice and I think that burned them down the stretch, i.e., the point in the season where the need to collect points takes a back seat to a focus on closing out results. That brings me to…
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| Yeah, yeah. It can still derail a show. |
The simple fact that he was so often the solution basically proves that he's not even a problem, but…hear me out, his approach to the game has some hand (or foot) in the above. To be clear, I don’t see Evander as a selfish player, but a lot of what he does and/or attempts to do leans toward forcing defenders to react and forcing the game generally. He brings other players into the game all the time, of course – one doesn’t get to 19 assists without that (or a poop-ton of set-pieces) – but Evander often operates as a soloist, working the ball against a defender hanging on his back, breaking through a double team, etc. All that counts as good work…but it still leaves his teammates waiting while he does his thing and holding runs until he gets free; it makes him the center of attacking movement that relies on one or two things coming together before the rest can even begin to fall into place. I don’t know how much of that follows from Evander’s instincts, and how much follows from what Neville asks him to do, but the sum of the season felt like flying from the seat of Evander’s pants and seeing how far the team could go with it. And that's limited.
Figuring out how to get the most out of Evander – not just in terms of him, the player, but for how the team works as a back-to-front whole, where and how to use him - strikes me as one of the biggest questions for next season. I don’t think Neville has it yet – and, to plug another outlets very good work, Morrisonic Podcast made a powerful case that Neville ain’t the man for that job in their 2024 season in review. One plausible part of the answer involves relieving him entirely of defensive duties, but I’m not entirely sure how that works, not least due to Evander’s fondness/sometime need to drop all the way back to the defensive third to get on the ball. Moreover, how does that work given the (current!) personnel behind him?
Theory 2 (Less Good About This): A Foundation Other Than Rock
If for no better reason than putting this on the record, I’m going to re-watch every single goal the Timbers gave up in 2024 to look for patterns in how they came about. Until such time as that review is concluded, I’m content to acknowledge that the Timbers defense hurt them for as long as the season lasted, even if it took the collapse of the attack to extinguish the season.
For what it’s worth, I saw – and still see – both structure and personnel as a real and defining problem. With due respect to the anecdote in the third paragraph of the post, no one will ever convince me that starting Pantemis over Crepeau would have salvaged the season (not least because I’m goalkeeper-ambivalent to an unusual extreme), so I’m more focused on everything between the ‘keepers and, I suppose, Evander, Rodriguez and Mora. To start with something carried down from up above:
Rhythm, and Getting Into It
A team can “defend” just by keeping its foot on the ball for a spell, or even just showing a capacity to do so. I’m not holding out a lot of hope on this, but I genuinely believe that the Timbers can take a little pressure off the defense just by getting more comfortable on the ball. To tie this into the above, if Evander can’t help with that, push him higher up the field to a place where he can just cook (and line up all of the freekicks he can put away) and find players who can get him the ball in better place, whether on the current roster (doubtful, but…) or by finding a player who can do it. Which explains why I obsess over…
David Ayala
To be clear, there is a lot of projection in this, a lot of seeing what I want to see, and even that is read against what the Timbers need. Makes me think he’s the answer. Portland needs a deep distributor, one who can play both the long passes that open up the game, and the short ones that keep possession, stay one step ahead of a pressing team, and, this time with feeling, help get the team in a good, connected rhythm on the ball. Even just having a player who can receive a ball in traffic would go several miles toward sparing the Timbers from having the starting ‘keeper hoof diagonals to Claudio Bravo or Juan David Mosquera…because other teams are on to that shit. I don’t know whether Ayala has MLS-elite skills in any of that, but he’s the closest the Timbers have so far. And, if you don’t need to replace him, that frees up money and resources to find players who fit the necessary profile. And here’s where things get really messy….
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| I'd take half that number of legs. Hey-oh! |
I’ve seen people Over There pine after a “world-destroying No. 6” and I’ve heard crazier ideas. And yet, when I run Ayala’s basic skill-set – e.g., decent tackler/terrier, better(?) distributor – the most obvious argument for making a play for an MLS-elite No. 6 boils down to signing a wrecking ball who can free Ayala to operate as something close to a No. 8.
Diego Chara filled that role as often as any Timber in 2024 and, yeah, the F. O. signed him to another season and while I don’t have any strong objections to that…eh. To point to the stronger side of that ambivalence, the fact Chara came in at fifth-highest on the roster for total minutes played says…something about the Timbers scouting network/powers of persuasion, very little of it good. I mean, if Columbus can convince really good players to come…
Chara is already in the books as a Timbers legend and I celebrate that. That doesn’t change the fact that the future was now at the start of the 2024 season. It’s past time this team looks forward, especially when they still have Chara for a mentor…even if you can’t teach 60% of what the man did. It’s also possible that the No. 6 isn’t the greatest position of need, if only in midfield.
The Situationally Expendable
Santiago Moreno came into his own this season – hereby begging his forgiveness for failing to mention his six goals and fourteen(!) assists above the proverbial fold – and that makes me think he’s not going anywhere unless he asks to go. And, once you keep Moreno, Evander and Ayala on the field, plus Rodriguez and Mora(?) up top (or even Antony), you don’t have many spaces left to fill in the starting XI. And that’s where you bump into Cristhian Paredes and Eryk Williamson.
If I could tell you to listen to one thing in Morrisonic’s season wrap-up podcast, I would steer you to their segments on Eryk Williamson and Cristhian Paredes. As they explained, and at more length than I’m going to, neither player has a starting role on the Timbers roster as currently constructed – which is something that we should all linger on given how poorly it produced in 2024. Again, and I can’t believe how long it took me to circle back to this: the product wasn’t good, so how the flaming Hell did trying literally anything else not come up more often? But I digress…
If there’s an intra-MLS swap the Timbers could make that would allow either Williamson or Paredes to go, but that brings back a player that combines their qualities, it either doesn’t exist or I haven’t thought of it yet. The likelier resolution points to either or both players moving to a team who needs their qualities in a starting line-up. If I had to keep one player, I’d gamble on turning Paredes into the partner/destroyer to pair with Ayala and let Williamson go wherever he can.
And now, to end where this was always headed…
The Cleanse? (Sorry, watching Umbrella Academy Season (Probably) 4 Right Now)
Again, I know fuck-all about roster mechanics, which players’ contracts are up, and how much the freedom any given MLS front office has to burn it all down and start all over again. That takes care of the disclosures, now some facts (or, more accurately, some strong opinions):
I would write one and only one defender’s name onto the starting roster in ink and that name is Dario Zuparic…but does he even want to stay in Portland next season (related, can he even leave)? As for the rest, Miguel Araujo was…fine, I’d keep kicking those tires, and Eric Miller 1) provides good, responsible cover and, 2) deserves a serious raise (to do it for the love, and for so long); Zac McGraw only works in a specific defensive set-up that stays compact and doesn’t ask him to cover a lot of ground and Kamal Miller…if I could explain what happened there, I would, I just know it didn’t go well. After that, you’ve got the genuinely untested Finn Surman. Then again, what did Portland’s 2024 defensive record do but make a powerful argument for giving him a shot? In the here and now, all of the above counts as more shambles than foundation, so there's PLENTY to do here, if within the limitations I don't care to explore. The question, as always, is what?
Both Mosquera and Bravo count as defenders, but I suspect most people agree that, between their talents and proclivities, both present more as wingbacks than fullbacks – moreover, what passes as Phil Neville’s “system” all but demands that Mosquera gets into the attack (though, both he and the system grew more disciplined down the stretch, even if to little avail). I bring up Neville’s “system” because I don’t see the essential ask for Mosquera's position, in particular changing, so the questions becomes how to adjust to that choice? And if that’s the case…doesn’t that point to a three-man backline as the direction to row, row, row toward in the mission of building a better backline?
Rather than bluff my way through an argument on how to rebuild the defense, I’m just going to throw up my hands and admit that I have no goddamn idea on what to do about Portland’s defense. To loop back to a previously-identified Timbers-subreddit-induced blind-spot, I have no clear idea how or why all of these reasonably talented defenders sucked so mightily and so often. When you arrive at that point, what else can you do but put pointed questions toward the coaching staff, both specifically (e.g., Liam Ridgewell) and generally (maybe they all suck?)…
…but what does that do but take you back to a place where you can believe that your local team has a competitive roster that only needs the right coach to get it humming right? It's complicated, people, even when it seems obvious.
Thanks to the early finish, the Timbers have more off-season than a lot of teams. Like most people (I think), I don’t see Portland making a lot of front office changes between today and First Kick 2025. The past is over and done with, so let’s see what they do to improve on the personnel side, whether by coaching or building a better roster.
That’s it for now. Until I wallow in the pain of every Timbers goal, take care of yourselves and hope for a smarter future.
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