Notes on the MLS Stretch-Run, with the Portland Timbers, FC Cincinnati & Spinal Tap

I've always wanted a girl who believes in Chicago.

We’ve reached that special time in the Major League Soccer calendar when pundits start stitching together posts that look like proofs – i.e., the ones that breakdown all the permutations that will see your local team either eliminated (aka, ded) or alive to fight for one more…let’s face it, almost certainly pointless weekend. A few teams have already been eliminated, of course – goodbye, DC, adieu, Montreal – but that still leaves plenty of teams counting long-dead chickens and hoping they can pawn them off on somebody.

With that in mind, you can add the following to the games I’ll be ignoring for this look ahead at this MLS Week, I dunno, 29? (Nope! It’s Week 33.)

Club du Foot Montreal v St. Louis CITY FC
New England Revolution v Toronto FC
Real Salt Lake v Sporting Kansas City

That doesn’t mean I’ll cover every other game at length, especially when the stakes fall short of existential – i.e., I don’t have much to say about Atlanta United FC v Columbus Crew beyond noting that Columbus needs to win this one and it’ll say something if they don’t, because it’s been a minute since that team saw a W (I count four games). One could argue the same applies to FC Dallas v Austin FC, but that one hits too close to home for me to ignore it.

At any rate, I pulled this together with an eye to get myself back in a sexy regular season mood after the international break. More whip-around than analysis – this will be the biggest possible picture, don’t expect anything on absences (unless I remember them; rare) and keep dreaming on a tactical breakdown - the facts and theories will come fast, but hopefully enough with enough meat on them to make it worth the time. Think the protein blast of riding down the highway on a motorcycle with your mouth open.

Right…starting with games of the most local interest (born in Cincinnati, live in Portland, OR):

FC Cincinnati v Nashville SC
Kinda terrifying from Cincy’s perspective, who have lost three straight at home, all of them against, per the standings, peer teams – e.g., Charlotte, Philadelphia and, if things keep going as they are, New York City FC. Love ‘em, hate ‘em, have a soft spot for ‘em (guilty; I’m so, so easy), Nashville poses a present and immediate danger to Cincy’s fortunes and future - think of the Orange and Blue going into playoffs with a headful of doubts about beating strong defensive teams at home. It takes literally half the calendar year before an MLS regular season games matters at all and this beauty has that rare, special something: (semi) massive implications.

Dream big as this young lady, Cincy fans.

To any Cincy fans looking for good omens, Nashville has dropped their past four road games – for the record, at Miami, at San Diego, at St. Louis, at NYCFC. If they can hand them a fifth straight road loss, a Matryoshka doll’s worth of positives for Cincy – a home win, a home win over a good team, chasing away doubts about where they stand against “real teams, etc. Against that, Nashville is a really balanced, both in the numbers (49 goals scored versus 33 allowed, against the league average of 41.4) and on the field: Sam Surridge is either in or on top of the Golden Boot race, Hany Mukhtar has thrived with a partner, Andy Najar still got it, the midfield has legs for days (not like that), and the defense remains solid. Here’s to hoping they packed the cursed witch’s hat in the team coach for the drive up to Cincy.

As for Cincinnati, it starts with getting back to scoring. I understand the dry spell coincided with the same run of 0-1 losses at home nodded at above– which, to be clear, is bad on its own – but Cincy gives a loose impression of a team that’s been figured out. Noonan’s gambled on Ender Echenique to change the mojo over the past couple games (or he was forced to), but the way the offense keeps getting stuffed before it gets far over the center-stripe strikes me as the bigger problem (and the World War I vibes? Not helpful.). I had this loose, unlikely theory about trying to start a faster CB (e.g., Hadebe or Flores) to see if that doesn’t free Pavel Bucha to push higher in a post a couple weeks back (see No. 2), but that’s just idle spit-balling. The breakdowns have happened, but Cincy’s defense carries its load; it’s time for Evander and Kevin Denkey to break their dry spells.

I still like Cincy’s chances all right, but they have gone from leading the Supporters’ Shield race a mere few weeks ago to looking at a serious risk of falling out of the Top 4 – and, if just two results break the wrong way, early as this weekend (Charlotte beating Miami in Charlotte is the other). Looking forward to this game, if through my fingers.

Portland Timbers v Red Bull New York
Given a fair likelihood that Colorado has another fuck up in ‘em and with San Jose too far down to pose an immediate threat, Portland has some room for failure. In the standings. After that…forgive me, but the faith’s taking a hit just now.

I haven’t seen much of the Red Bulls this season and I can’t say I regret it. Since those glory seasons over the 2010s, they have become a team that does a most of the same things, just with less interesting players. Eric Choupo-Moting has delivered well enough, but Emil Forsberg has never blown me away and it’s a lot of…mostly competent randos after that and the sum of that merely lifts the Red Bull attack to a rounding error above average. I don’t think they press with energy-drink drunkenness the way they used to, but the energy’s still high and they still believe firmly in going forward fast.

The feeling - the smell! - we all crave.

And that formula could very pose a problem for a Timbers team still folding new attacking players into the lineup (though not Felipe Carballo) and watching for the dough to rise. On the plus side, Kristoffer Velde has progressed steadily over his short time in the team and why not for Mauricio Rojas? It’s good Antony’s back, I like Ariel Lassiter more than most and Kevin Kelsy starting over Felipe Mora, just to say that all again…but the clock ticks louder every week that doesn’t come together. If the Timbers can’t get the attack past “try this” over the next six games, their trip to the playoffs will be short and either uneventful, or eventful in the all the wrong ways. The defense looks good – this could be the best Portland has had in while – and they do all right getting the ball out of the defense and into the attack. This issue comes with what comes after. A win on Saturday would do wonders for morale, but keeping or expanding the breathing room would mean a little more. Just…score some damn goals, guys.

That’s it for my personal main events. Time to kick around the rest of MLS Week…you guys sure about this?) 33. In the order they interest me…

FC Dallas v Austin FC
I doubt I’ll watch this one, neither team has much “pop” on the entertainment side, but Austin’s offense has ticked up in recent weeks (maybe Brandon Vazquez was the problem?). In fairness, they scored a lot of those goals against teams looking at early vacations – e.g., DC, San Jose, and, last weekend, Sporting KC (fwiw, they lost at Montreal) – and that spongey soft schedule might have goosed them over the Timbers in the table. Austin’s not a bad road team overall (6-7-2) and, one “sacre bleu” result in Montreal aside, they’ve been good at weak teams lately…a description that fits Dallas too snugly for their liking. A quick read on Dallas: they’ve lost half of their past 10 games, if against a tough-ish schedule, they have just two wins over that same stretch, and Petar Musa can only carry that flaccid attack so far. While not many teams threaten the Timbers from below, away to Dallas gives Austin a better-than-av-e-rage chance of three points this weekend.and with Portland looking at a likely draw…

Chicago Fire FC v New York City FC
It does the soul of a long-time MLS fan good to see Chicago in the playoff picture. Yeah, I’m in the tank for them too. Again, I’m a slut.

A 5-3-2 record over their past ten games lifted them there. They’ve punched some lunch money out of the small and scrambled – e.g., Montreal, St. Louis and New England – but isn’t that just taking care of business? Besides, the wins versus the Red Bulls and (further back) Charlotte did the real work. It’s possible that the Fire swings wildly against teams they can beat and buckles down against the stronger ones – though, it bears pointing out that Philly kicked the piss, teeth and stuffing out of them just a couple weeks ago – and I’m somewhere between guessing and hoping that they play it at least half-safe versus NYCFC. Les Pigeons like to press, they do it well and Alonso Martinez will straight fuck up a high defensive line if you let him. Chicago’s numbers (both high, at 53 goals for, 50 allowed) hints at a penchant for gambling, but we’ll see. Good as New York’s defense has been (quite), Hugo Cuypers finally came good for Chicago and Philip Zinckernagel would have a louder shout at MVP in a season with a cooler pace. This could be fun, or this could be NYC frustrating Chicago all afternoon and pinching a lone goal. It’s pretty much a two-horse race between Chicago and Red Bulls at the bottom of the Eastern playoff race, but, at time of writing, that race is existential.

Vancouver Whitecaps v Philadelphia Union
Mostly due to how much the ‘Caps could use a turnaround. They’ve slowed down since their flying start to 2025, maybe not to the point of serious risk of falling out of Top 4 in the West, but Seattle’s giving them a hell of a run for third – and that’s with a Leagues Cup trophy weighing them down. Won’t lie, Vancouver has slipped a ways off my radar in terms of actually watching them, but their results are all over the place – e.g., bad recent losses at the (pre-improvement) Galaxy, Colorado, and San Jose, against a road win at LAFC and a road draw at San Diego – and trending dangerously close to Timbers-esque. In other words, this is a bad time to host a Shield-leading Philadelphia side. Having recently watched Bradley Carnell’s Union team roll Cincy in Cincinnati gave me a fresh appreciation for what Vancouver has on their hands and…did they just lose Brian White or am I confusing his injury with someone else’s? As much as the Union would love to win this game, they don’t need it. The ‘Caps don’t quite NEED it either, at least not beyond staying ahead of Seattle, but…

San Jose Earthquakes v Los Angeles FC
Surprisingly hard to state clearly which team needs all three points more, but the result teeters closer to existential for San Jose. A pair of recent wins – 2-1 versus Vancouver and at Houston – rescued them from oblivion and have them one spot over the play-in line. Things look pretty damned bleak all around that, but the ‘Quakes share Chicago’s overall formula of swinging for results and (without investigation; does it matter?) I’m not sure they’ve had a clean sheet all season (because they haven’t had a clean sheet over the past ten games, five of which they’ve lost). It’s hard to know how much relief they’ll get out of decently-balanced LAFC team that just signed a(n alleged) killer in Son Heung-Min, but it will almost certainly give them more to manage than the Denis Bouanga Show. Against that, you have LAFC’s crap-ish road record (3-3-6; wow, lots of road games left for them) and just one win (at the Revs) in their past six games. It’s not over yet for San Jose and, if the Timbers don’t get their shit together, they’ll have the ‘Quakes to worry about too. Somewhat related…

Colorado Rapids v Houston Dynamo FC
Either, both, or neither of these teams may or may not flop into the playoffs (do I even understand what I mean there?), but all signs point to them going in to make up the numbers, as cannon fodder. At this point, I’m mostly fascinated by the Rapids’ late defensive woes (23 goals allowed over the past 10), and whether that’s enough to allow a predictable Houston attack (paging Griffin Dorsey high and on the right) to do anything of interest against them. I caught Paxten Aaronson’s debut and he looked a lot better than the result. The Rapids definitely do better at home Colorado than the road and they’ll need every advantage avoid the embarrassing fate of Houston catching their coattails.

This is going long, so I’m going to speed-round the rest – and, yes, that means stiffing a couple big games, starting with:

Charlotte’s the hottest team in MLS (8-1-1, over the past 10), but Miami, aka, the team voted most likely to be doing anything besides regular league play, wasn’t so far behind until the Leagues Cup (see/) and a short string of stumbles knocked them off track. My money’s on Miami losing and my bias is against them is strong, but the most interesting thing here is the three-way race for 2nd in the East. To name another among the stiffed: San Diego FC v Minnesota. That one could go either way, even if San Diego should have the edge, but they’re also both kind of doing their own thing on top of the West, Minnesota can’t catch San Diego (though they could get within two), Vancouver can’t catch Minnesota if the latter loses, but that would mean Vancouver has to win, etc.

Uh, what else? Orlando City should beat the crap of out DC, because who hasn’t (but, again, if they don’t) and I’m hoping Seattle Sounders v Los Angeles Galaxy is more fun than it has any right to be, but a result for either team won't do much beyond either making Seattle more secure (and Vancouver more anxious) and giving the Galaxy false hope that their 2025 season meant anything to anyone, The End.