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| something's gotta give, something's gotta give, something's... |
Answer: Some combination of we’re about to find out and we’ll only know if the new hire makes the current team rise above lower middle-table class.
As I thought about what I wanted to write into the record during the moral injury timeout of Major League Soccer’s 2026 season, aka, the 2026 World Cup, I came up with a couple different approaches – e.g., reviewing every goal allowed this season to see if I could get a handle on whatever ails the Timbers defense (28 goals allowed so far, 2.0/game), or mining themes out of all the posts I’d written since First Kick 2026. On the theory that Neville’s departure renders all that at least partially irrelevant, all that’s going out the window.
Related, I’m not going to bother picking at the bones of the rotting camel carcass that ended Phil’s tenure, last Saturday’s 1-3 home loss versus the San Jose Earthquakes. On the most basic level, it was an(other?) example of game getting away from the Timbers; they gave up three goals with just over a quarter of the game played and Portland hasn’t scored more than two goals in any game outside the opener versus Columbus and versus a wretched, yet rising Sporting Kansas City team (now just three points below the Timbers). I doubt I would have put much time into one had Neville stuck around. Setting aside the question of whether he was up to it (he wasn’t), the two-month The World Cup break will give every team in MLS something like a fresh start. Sure, some teams would make that start with more baggage than others – think of Portland running eight points behind the pace for the “real” (as in non-play-in) playoffs as starting adulthood with student debt in a race against trust-fund kids – but the Timbers brain-trust had plenty of information for gauging what was and wasn't working and making the relevant adjustments.
Those adjustments can only go so far, of course, with the extent limited by the players currently under contract with Portland. And that’s what the rest of this post will be: one man’s examination of the cards the Timbers currently hold in their hand and that its next manager will have to play. I’ll take those one at a time in player-by-player, position-by-position blurbs below - most based on the eye test, with a glance at the numbers – starting with the regulars and then on through the bench. Before touching on the present realities, however, let us turn our attention to a couple other externals.
First and foremost, I don’t trust Ned Grabavoy to handle the rebuild. Merritt Paulson has all kinds of faults*, but he has also opened his wallet and given Ned money to spend – not as much as other teams, but real money. Grabavoy has been around long enough to compile a record (hired October 2022) and, on the theory of judging a general manager on his biggest swings – e.g., TAM-level at the low end, designated players on the high – I’d rate Ned’s ERA as a couple singles, a couple foul balls and as many wild swings. One could be forgiven for believing that he signs every relevant player an agent calls in (e.g., when the Timbers announce they “need a winger” or get hung up on fullbacks); I have no evidence he does that, but, again, one could be forgiven.
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| The actual subtext of this post. |
Second, and totally related, yes, the Timbers have a DP slot available. That’s swell and all, but I believe the above makes a pretty robust case for anxiety (with due perspective; we have bigger fish to fry, people). You may not feel how I feel, but that will be baked into the cake until a certain ingredient (Ned Grabavoy) comes out.
I’ll circle back to Phil Neville at the end of the post, but that’s it for appetizers. It’s entrée time!
in re the Timbers Roster
Goalkeepers
James Pantemis
Quite possibly the only clear, consistently good player on the entire roster. Before you start throwing shit, hear me out. Of all the positions in a starting eleven, ‘keeper comes closest to being a solo act (forward’s second). Backing a crap defense helps him stand out, but Pantemis has just four saves fewer than league leader, Brad Stuver (also on a crap team and Portland’s next-door neighbor at the bottom of the West), and put in multiple heroic shifts to hold the Timbers above the abyss, aka, Sporting Kansas City.
Hunter Suite/Trey Muse
Courtesy of having zero minutes played between them, effectively interchangeable and probably fine. Most goalkeepers are fine at the end of it all, which makes me doubly happy to have Pantenis.
Defenders
Finn Surman (1,215 minutes played (“MP”))
A rare triumph for Ned. Athletic, great reader of the game, brave and competent in the tackle, wise beyond his years. Surman is crazy good for his age…but there’s still something clearly wrong at or about the Timbers’ back four. Phil appointed him captain over the last few games – not a desperate call by any means – but does he have the chops to organize the last line of defense, with or without Pantemis’ help? (And do they even see that work as a collaborative enterprise? How does that partnership work? Is there even a partnership? Does he like vegemite?) Also, the fact that strong central defenses thrive on strong partnerships...does the defense miss Dario Zuparic?
Brandon Bye (1,186 MP)
I count him a global upgrade over Juan David Mosquera. You’ll see Bye make great plays during a game, both defensively and via dangerous and/or the odd cultivated cross . He also checks out, occupies the wrong space, and makes visible mistakes. Defenders’ mistakes count for more because they hurt more, an unfair state of play, no question, but Bye still balances positive for me.
Jimer Fory (1,070 MP, originally typed as “Jim Fory,” something I found hysterical when I typed it)
Love his energy, a personality on a team that needs one, but I can’t think of a player who has slipped further in my estimation. I see a couple of assists in his numbers (yay!), but I see him behind/out of position too often defensively to think the Timbers can’t do better (even if they can’t do better tomorrow, whether by contract or unfinished scouting). He may be able to play center back – don’t recall, honestly – which would be enough to raise his stock in the near-term, if true.
Alex Bonetig (650 MP)
Can’t say for sure, which says plenty. Credit to the youngster for never looking overwhelmed, never mind out of his depth, but he doesn't stand out either. That kind of anonymity lumps him into the half-anonymous category of “Portland’s Defensive Problems.”
Kamal Miller (560 MP)
Picking up more starts lately, if I’m not mistaken, hardly surprising given the 2.0 goals allowed/game state of things. Personally, I’ve liked him this season more than in past ones, but still can’t make an argument that ranks him higher than capable professional. (That’s “capable,” aka, a step higher than “competent.”)
Ian Smith (313 MP, originally typed as “Iam Smith,” which sounds like B-movie sci-fi gold)
Happy to give him a vote of confidence as a player who can grow with the team, but, today, I mostly wish he was better than Fory.
Juan David Mosquera (69 MP)
With the comparison to Bye above duly acknowledged, I’d be fine if the new guy gave Mosquera starts as soon as he was ready to make them (I mean that health-wise).
Eric Miller (a player who exists)
I mean, if he’s healthy, why is he not getting on the field? Even at center back. Even just to make the starters sweat.
Defense, Main Takeaway
It’s possible my frustration with the attack moved me to excuse the shortcomings in defense. Typing out what I thought about each defensive player slowed me down enough to see them.
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| Yeah.... |
David Da Costa (896 MP)
My mistrust of Grabavoy in a single signing. If I could get rid of one player on Portland’s roster, it’s DDC. He’s not a bad player – he’s even contributing (one goal, four assists) – but Da Costa has the most limiting “master of none” skillsets I’ve ever seen in a designated player. To put the case in starker terms, name an MLS team that you’d think would take Da Costa on the contract Portland pays him.
Cole Bassett (835 MP)
What he lacks in defensive bite, he makes up with an elevated understanding of how the move the ball through central midfield: in other words, a solid No. 8. Bassett is Grabavoy’s single – a good productive signing that helps the overall project even if it doesn’t change the world.
Diego Chara (543 MP)
Still love him for depth (elite depth, too!) and would put him in to defend any lead Portland manages to carry into a second half, but I want new starters in midfield from the first game after the World Cup break going forward. I'm a card-carrying member of Team Build-a-Statue, but it's past time for Portland to rip off the Band-Aid and embrace almost any future that moves them toward one.
Jose Caicedo (504 MP)
I was rippin’ high on Caicedo over his first couple games – played the ball like a next-tier No. 6 and with the confidence to assert himself – but some of that unraveled after the loss at Minnesota. His reputation hadn’t recovered by the time he picked up his injury, but I’m still happy to grant him time to settle.
Joao Ortiz (434 MP)
One thing I noticed in the loss versus San Jose – and it’s something I’ve spotted before: Ortiz is physically strong on the ball, almost impossible to dispossess if he gets his body right. That’s foundational No. 6 stuff. We’ll need more minutes to determine his positioning/reading of midfield space, as well as the reliability of his passing. I’ve seen enough to give him a real, it's-on-his-shoulders run, while acknowledging the coaching staff never got there and that most fans aren’t there yet (and may never get there).
Omir Fernandez (on the IR, right)
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| Both of their eyes have evil glows, so... |
An aging legend (Chara), a strong No. 8 (Bassett), a solution Tonya-Hardinged by fate (Caicedo), a potential replacement the coaches can’t bring themselves to test (Ortiz), a misfit (Da Costa) and some dude we probably won’t see till 2027: that was surprisingly easy to sum up.
“Forwards” (aka, literally everyone else)
Kristoffer Velde (1,227 MP)
Growing on me despite the fact I think he’ll need a real playmaker (or system of play) to reach his...maximal potential. As proved in the San Jose, plus a couple before, he’s not a great outlet coming back for the first ball out of defense, so his best games goes in one direction. Also, defenders should gamble on him taking a shot or trying to beat them on the dribble, because instinct follows action 80% of the time for Velde. To his very real credit, he tries shit and, against evidence that would discourage a man less high on his own supply, plays like he can score from everywhere. On the debit side, Velde was signed as a DP, aka, a solution, something that shows in his numbers and the team’s.
Antony (937 MP)
Great speed, middling touch, fragile confidence: Antony in 2026. I see glimpses of a better player bubbling to the surface more and more lately – something I chalk up to a growing chip on his shoulder – but the future needs to arrive for the kid – and soon.
Kevin Kelsy (738 MP)
Based on what I’ve seen, an easy vote for the Timbers most improved player from the beginning of 2026. Kelsy always works, even if his interest wanes sans support, but he’s finding the payoff more often lately and giving the Timbers some of their best openings when he doesn’t. He’s on a good path, which I embrace. Even if an upgrade at forward wouldn’t such a crazy option. There I said it.
Alexander Aravena (435 MP)
What? He played that many minutes when? I kid, I kid, but I also haven’t seen nearly enough of this player to sort out a couple of the variables – e.g., was Phil playing him in his best position? Did he fill an actual position of need, or did Ned just answer the phone that day? I think of him as a blank slate without a projector.
Felipe Mora (359 MP)
If there was a good way to give Mora another year or two, and in any league that pays enough, he could go with my blessing. To be clear, I still think he can contribute, but he's definitely better with a supporting cast. Who knows? Maybe a new coach could unlock something like that. (Dare we dream?)
Gage Guerra (278 MP)
If he can play wide at a professional level, get him out there, if only as a sub. Get this players minutes, basically. Maybe bring him on as a sub to play as an outlet for long diagonals? The point is, the Timbers have an attacking problem, so why not try shit?
Ariel Lassiter (178 MP)
See Aravena, but with the confusion running in the opposite direction (i.e., how does Lassiter have two goals and one assist (as many as Antony)) in so little time, and doesn’t that – and that banging free kick he took versus SKC – make you wonder what else he can do? I know Ari’s not the best player on the roster, but he does the things he does reliably and sometimes well. Barring a new acquisition in a very specific position, I’d like to see the next coach invite him to push for minutes.
Eric Iziota (90 MP)
Hardly knew him, but still expect he could use more time in the oven.
Forwards, Main Takeaway
Again, typing out your opinions on each Timbers player felt like a useful exercise, like taking an inventory of your failings, only it's theirs. Felt like therapy. The real stuff that leaves you crying into a pillow. Speaking of therapy, that sounds wrong when I type it and make it public. Scheduling an appointment...
If that’s not everybody on the roster, it’s close enough. And that takes me back to where this post started – i.e., with Phil Neville. Phil is not a good coach today, but I like him well enough to hope he becomes one in the future. If I had to charge him with anything, I'd go with vagueness of instruction. To the extent the the Timbers had a playing style under him beyond "Go out there, lads, and get after it," I couldn't identify it. That’s the roster he had to work with, all the same, and in the event I haven't made this clear, I think it'll be a challenge for any coach. Even so, the right-here, right-now question the organization faces today is whether a different coach can make the same players better. If that hypothetical coach can make them great by the end of 2026 with just one more signing (and perhaps some additional, internal horse-trading, so much the better), fantastic. Utterly fantastic even.
To make a statement that I think puts me in line with with most Timbers fans, I don’t see that in the cards. To lay my cards on the table (get. away. from. cards. man.), I can’t see Portland improving without some cycling through some pickups and discards (sorry!). For now, any new coach hired by the organization – from Soccer Messiah (both Faustian and “Other” accepted) down to the longest “He’s Ready for His Shot” assistant coach – has to play that hand to the best of his ability. But, seriously, he should shoot the moon too. Like really go for it, if just because this is a fan base that’s dying to fall in love again.
That’s it for this one. I’m not sure what I’ll post during the World Cup break. Some MLS-wide content will 1,000% go up, but I’m guessing this site hits sleep mode until league play picks up again…gods’ truth, I’m a little geeked up about the Leagues Cup. Till the next one…
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