MLS Week 20-22 Level Set, the Timbers Place in It & a Wee Austin Scouter

MLS to literally all of its teams.

With the Leagues Cup now behind every MLS team (look at that, clean sweep) and the home stretch on the horizon, I felt like I needed another level set on where teams are around the league. The dive ain’t deep: it’s about 80% looking for patterns over the past 10 games for every team in MLS and 20% “other” – so the analysis doesn’t go much further than “things are okay” or “Jesus Christ, are they okay?” Just to note it, going back 10 games in regular season play takes all the teams below back to the middle of May; a pretty big sample, in other words. Hopefully, the blurbs provided on each team will either confirm an impression, maybe even tell you something you didn’t already know.

As for organization, I decided to go with something simple as the playoffs: each MLS team is grouped below as either Quick (i.e., either above the playoff line or with a fair chance of getting over it by Decision Day) or Dead (i.e., unlikely to make the playoffs, present place in the standings notwithstanding). I went with that looser measure deliberately: some teams look a lot more like “contenders,” others the middlest of mid-table, and most will trot to the end of their season at the exact same clip, but a good run at the right time can go all the way to MLS Cup for any team that makes MLS’s open-armed playoff system, so why get out the fine-tooth comb when I run a ratty old brush through it?

Quick aside: looking at the 2026 standings with the rumored new playoff format floated by Larry(? (Harry? What’s his fuck?) Berg is a fun exercise. I understand the 2027-28 season will feature more conferences and, full disclosure, both eyes and ears glazed over when it was explained to me, but as I understand Berg’s proposed system, the “if the playoffs started today” line for 2026 would be drawn between the determinedly mid-table Red Bull New York and the (frankly) plummeting Seattle Sounders. Everyone on 26 points and above gets in, basically, so that’s eight teams from the East and twelve in the West (e.g., the LA Galaxy and everyone above them, basically, and at time of posting). Have to admit that’s not as bad as I thought, or not much worse than the present system, at least in terms of the invite list.

So, time to get into it. I’ve decided to start with the Dead – i.e., the teams I don't see making the 2026 playoffs – and then run through the Quick. Going backwards feels little more suspenseful, for some reason. But, before getting into that, and because this is a Portland Timbers blog, I’m going to start by seeing how both they and Austin FC, the team they host this weekend, weigh in the balance…plus I also wanted to pad the entry on Austin with a little scouting report.

Portland Timbers, 9th in the West (28 points), among the Quick!
8-9-4, 28 pts., 21 GP; 38 gf, 37 ga (-1); home 6-2-2, away 2-7-2
Last 10 Results: DLLWDWWLWD (4-3-3)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ MTL (2-2 D); @ MIA (0-2 L); v SJ (1-3 L); @ SEA (5-1 W); v FCD (2-2 D); v RSL (2-1 W), v SEA (2-1 W); @ CHI (1-2 L); v SD (3-1 W); @ LAFC (1-1 D)

It's okay! I feel good!

Subjectively objectively, Portland’s form over its past five games would do any fanbase proud – 3-1-1, picking off points and climbing the ladder against direct opposition, etc. Two wins in the Leagues Cup amplifies the perception of success a little, but, speaking as a fan, the performances keep looking better, the structure more coherent, the on-field talent more complementary and actually talented. Of all points dropped recently – the home draw versus Dallas, the Leagues Cup loss versus Club America, the loss at Chicago and the draw at LAFC – the Dallas game was the only one that stirred up any real concerns (thought the Timbers got outplayed there) and Portland came within 10 minutes of taking all three points out of LA. Losing Kevin Kelsy to Rangers (still not over losing him to the Scottish Prem; aim higher, young man!) will take a little off the top, and that’s not great, but something legitimately did change for the Timbers with the arrival of Marti Cifuentes and in a way that justifies a little more faith in future success. You don’t always know where and how a team will break when it hits puberty (i.e., goes through real changes), but the early returns feel good. I don’t think rising to fourth will come easy, and it may not come at all, but a couple teams are falling out and that could open some space.

That only matters of the Timbers take the space opened for them, so let’s turn to the first game of the 13 upcoming that will decide it.

Austin FC, 14th in the West, among the Dead
5-10-6, 21 pts., 21 GP; 26 gf, 40 ga (-14); home 4-3-3, away 1-7-3
Last 10 Results: DLLLWLLLWL (2-7-1)
Strength/Location of Schedule
@ MIN (2-2 D); @ SD (0-5 L); v SKC (1-2 L); @ STL (0-3 L); v SEA (3-1 W); @ HOU (0-3 L); @ COL (0-1 L); v FCD (1-2 L); @ SEA (2-1 W); v PHI (1-1 D)

The most positive spin I can put on their past 10 results amounts to they have Seattle’s number, which doesn’t say much more than “can beat a Seattle team in the midst of an historic struggle.” Sweeping any season series 5 goals to 2 loses a lotta luster when those two wins sit snug and half-worthless into a 2-7-1 “streak.”

Putting together this post ate up the time I usually commit to reviewing the tape. As such, I don’t have much in the way of specifics to offer – small loss, honestly, because giving specifics = getting over my skis often as not – so, I’ll pull it back to the bigger picture. Beating Seattle in the Sounders “who hasn’t?” era provided Austin its only win on the road. Despite their struggles and some rebuilding – e.g., bringing in Jayden Nelson (Vancouver), Joseph Rosales (Minnesota), Facundo Torres (Palmeiras), and Christian Ramirez (Waiversville) before the 2026 season and Przemyslaw Placheta at the end of June – it looks like interim head coach Davy Arnaud has stuck with largely stuck with 8/11ths of the same lineup as the now-departed Nico Estevez. (Jim Curtin takes over next season, which I forgot). The lineup the Timbers see should look something like this (maybe with a dash of this). Based on raw numbers, Mytro Uzuni’s having his best season in Verde (6g, 5a) and Austin’s getting decent numbers out of Ramirez; Brandon Vazquez hasn’t had a great season (or played much) despite the Celsius ads, and I doubt Torres has wowed The Organization with his numbers (2g, 6a). You can see the topline numbers above – 26 goals scored (barely north of 1.0 goals/game) against 40 allowed (nearly 2.0 goals/game) – so things don’t look stellar on either side of the ball or on the road. It looks like they’re still getting Placheta up to speed, but I’m hoping he’s hiding a haul of assists, because his career numbers for goals scored don’t flag him as one to score a bunch.

Put it all together, Saturday looks like a game Portland needs to win, if only because most signs point to yes. It does, however, bear noting that Austin was one of four MLS teams to make the Leagues Cup quarterfinals. Good for them, while it lasted anyway.

That takes care of the local angle. Now to expand to the rest. The notes on the rest of the teams wont’ be nearly as long – the goal was to provide one salient note per team, went a ways over that on most entries – and the primary basis for those notes are the past 10 results for the relevant team. Again, the goal is to just put a pin in where each of these teams are now that they’ve played 20, 21 or 22 games in 2026.

And…away we go, starting with…

Elegant, yet deadly.

The Dead
Sporting Kansas City, 15th in the West (15 points)
On a five-game winless streak and with just one point taken, the worst record in the league by six points (already!), and at the beginning of a rebuild that probably has “another?” in front of it: SKC is cooked and has to be the early hands-down favorite for the 2026 Wooden Spoon. They sold Dejan Joveljic to the Sounders, but they’ve added some new guys in recent weeks – forward Andre Luiz (Olympiacos; I know nothing) and an under-used Owen Wolff from, hey, Austin. Maybe that makes them a pain in the ass down the stretch, but actual salvation seems like a big ask.

Columbus Crew, 15th in the East (20 points)
It’s hard to sell even a rabid fan a turnaround on a 5-8-5 record, but I nibbled on the Crew’s most recent mini-revival and sipped a little Kool-Aid (I blame the Leagues Cup, man; the Leagues Cup freaked me out!) only to see them lose their next three straight in league play (and they, like everyone else, are now out of the Leagues Cup). That dragged their overall record to 5-11-5 and my faith in their chances to that sewer where It eats children. They have done a fair amount of reloading since late June (Josef Martinez is fun, but also Gonzalo Tapia, Brais Mendez and,. thought not buried (just 3 points below the East’s deep playoff line, and a salvageable -6 goal differential), 2026 still looks like a lost season. Or I’m pissy about the lingering taste of Kool-Aid.

Club du Foot Montreal, 14th in the East (21 points)
I can’t remember the last time I looked at Montreal and thought, “hey, they may have a chance” or, “wow, that was a smart decision.” Sure, they have 21 points, insert the “You’re Never Dead in the Eastern Conference” Rule here, and so on: they have one win in their last ten games (thanks for visiting sunny Columbus, Ohio!) and they played seven of their past ten games in Montreal. Feels so much like a zombie organization that I’m not even bothering to check their transactions. Free Prince Owusu!

Now, to wade into some controversy…

DC United, 11th in the East (24 points)
DC stopped being worth noting, even as a novelty, when Toronto overtook them for the most draws in 2026 at nine games. They picked up six of those over their past 10 games – and some are genuinely impressive, e.g., 2-2 draws home and away against Nashville, plus a 1-1 draw versus St. Louis at the beginning of their crazy run – but DC’s also 1-3-6 over their past 10 games and draws don’t really take a team anywhere. And six of those 10 games were home games. They haven’t done much, or done enough I can wrap my head around, to convince me that can attain any form of momentum. So, yeah, I think they’re cooked.

Of course, swinger. C'mon in!

With that, we pass into the Land of the Living. One key note before moving on: between a handful and a half dozen teams below are, factually, below the play-in line; going the other way, only a sliver of points separates those same teams from an actual playoff spot. As such, I’m inclined to be more inclusive. Still, between those margins and a couple teams coming down fast, particularly in the West, inclusiveness feels like the safe ‘n’ sane choice. Because I no longer feel like I have to make an argument for a team’s demise, the entries actually get shorter from here…but the love is still there, if you listen for my heartbeat. Finally, and to be 100% clear, declaring any given team “Quick” doesn’t mean I see them rolling to MLS Cup. I don’t give the lion’s share of the teams below the beginnings of a chance to reach MLS Cup, or even go deep in the playoffs. And yet, as noted above, it doesn’t mean they can’t get to the playoffs and win a game or two.

The Quick
Philadelphia Union, 13th in the East (21 points)
After everyone wrote them off (including me), Philly put together a four-game winning streak that was at least 50% compelling (v RBNY, v SEA, v ATL, @ NYC) to get themselves off their asses and wrestling for a playoff spot – or, failing that, a play-in spot. The Union may be four places below the play-in line and six points from actual salvation, but, even with two (credible) draws over the past two match days (versus Miami, at Austin), they have more momentum than most of the teams above them. A big stretch, yes, but the bottom of the East looks soft enough.

Atlanta United FC, 12th in the East (21 points)
The Five Stripes managed the notable feat of putting together a solid three-game winning streak – v Red Bull, at Minnesota, v SKC, all 2-1 Ws – without changing their record over their past 10 games (3-5-2). Like Philly, they remain six points below interesting, but have enough momentum to where I can see them getting their toe into the playoff picture. And, against the promises made above, Atlanta’s recent moves (e.g., bringing in Junior Alonso and Paulo Diaz in July, then Mauricio Amaro and Breel Embolo in August) incline me toward giving them a better shot than DC, despite DC being three points above them and tying all comers.

Toronto FC, 10th in the East (24 points)
Among the teams running off the pace in the East - i.e., all the ones on 24 points (Orlando, DC and) Toronto showed enough signs of life in recent weeks (wins versus New England and at Miami, plus a wild draw versus Charlotte) to where I don’t feel safe writing them off. In a world where the East feels soft up to sixth place (Cincinnati) and you get the same squeeze out of the competition, Toronto has good a chance as any team from New York City FC to Columbus. Won’t be surprised to see Toronto stall, by any means, but the playoffs, and not much more, hearken fair queen.

Orlando City SC, 9th in the East (24 points)
Just when you thought back-to-back wins against San Jose (before their ongoing pratfall) and Nashville (still good!), plus a respectable Leagues Cup campaign that included two games against two teams that reached the quarterfinals (they beat Monterrey, btw, still going after beating Chicago Tuesday), Orlando falls flat against the kinds of teams they have to beat if they want to get back into the mix (@ RBNY, v CIN, v CHI). The only thing keeping them down here instead of with the Dead: winning at home versus (admittedly free-falling) RSL and Antoine Griezmann (among other moves, e.g., Daryl Dike). Probably still doomed even if they make the playoffs; something’s not clicking.

Seattle Sounders, 13th in the West (25 points)
I say this without spite (really), the Sounders lost eight straight games and I can’t think of an MLS team that needed to experience that more. Every angry letter to management had incredible “old man screams at cloud” vibes, even if most of those were written by men in their 30s and 40s, most of them well-adjusted to boot. At any rate, teams fall apart and go to shit all the time, to the point where it’s the normal state for most fans of any league. It’s new to Sounders fans. No need to lay off or anything. Just noting it. Still, Seattle hasn’t won a league game since mid-freakin’-May, so it’s largely their history that has them walking among the Quick, that and the speed with which so many Western Conference teams are chasing them down the standings.

A good time for all.

Los Angeles Galaxy, 12th in the West (26 points)
The Galaxy’s past 10 games have amounted to alternating between signs of life and hints of mediocrity. That’s enough to keep a team in touch in a Western Conference that looks pretty wide open from 7th (Colorado) down to, if only they can dream hard enough, LA in 12th place (sorry, Seattle). The rewards of a 2-4-4 record over their past 10 games, amirite, and I truly can’t think of anything that recommends this team for success. They have made some moves – e.g., they called in Chucky Lozano (maybe he can poison his second locker room?), plus forward Kyogo Furuhashi and midfielder Sergi Roberto – and maybe those guys combine to form Soccer Voltron, but I couldn’t write them off for one of the reasons I couldn’t write off Seattle (believe, I’ve gone back and forth at least three times): the West is a chaotic shit-show with sparklers tied to everything that will hold one.

Red Bull New York, 8th in the East (26 points)
I checked the regular season standings going back to 2018 – the last season Red Bull won the Supporters’ Shield, fwiw – and have confirmed that mid-table is their natural home. Sometimes they go a little higher, and they go higher more often than lower, but this team takes to 7th and 8th like middle-aged men take to loose clothing (#ClostestI’llGettoHeaven, #LowBar). I think the organization is weirdly content with this. The 2026 youth movement is very cool, it may even go somewhere, but I don’t see them replicating those Supporters’ Shield season, like, ever without a culture shift.

San Diego FC, 11th in the West (27 points)
They may hit the skids now and then, and 11th may feel like a long way from, say, 7th place, but the actual distance amounts to one slim point (a strapping lad could walk it in a day!) and San Diego wins enough real games (e.g., v FCD, @ LAFC, v COL…okay, maybe not that last one), and that’s enough to keep me compelling. Basically, this is a structurally-sound team and it has talent and that’s enough to make them a reasonable bet for the playoffs for me.

New York City FC, 7th in the East (27 points)
Mushy of late, without questions, and I’m honestly surprised by NYC’s soft home record (4-4-3), which just not like them. In order to hit their regular mark of 10-11 home wins per season (save one exception and the pandemic season), NYC has to win out (i.e., win their six remaining home games). Hanging in seventh keeps them “in it,” and, but they’ll need real upside from Benie Traore, Talles Magno and Luighi to climb to higher ground in the East; NYC doesn’t appear to be leaking goals, but scoring more seems like their plan for bailing out the proverbial boat. A four-game winless streak (two points from v TFC, v PHI, @ CIN, @ NE) speaks to how that project’s progressing.

Minnesota United FC, 10th in the West (28 points)
One of the bad surprises of 2026, Minnesota looked fine till they started stumbling and, as in the Life Alert ads, can’t seem to get back up. Prior to last week’s everyone’s-doing-it-so-why-can’t-we at San Jose, the Loons didn’t post a win over the nine games prior; they even lost to SKC (in Kansas City, but still). Their home record sucks (2-3-5), but Minnesota has one of the weirder track records in MLS when it comes to winning at home; they hit the ceiling around eight per season historically. They’d make a great case for getting overtaken by either Seattle or LA, but getting over Minnesota doesn’t get a team into the post-season. So, it’s just a matter of waiting to see which Western Conference teams stop failing first.

Real Salt Lake, 8th in the West (28 points)
Their 2-5-3 record over their past 10 games looks bad enough, but you see a little more smear across the view when you see RSL hasn’t won one game in the last seven. The fact their road record sucks (1-6-3) bears noting (both as fact and warning), they did play six of their last 10 games on the road, but that only raises the stakes (wait…did I just…type that?) for dropping five points of six in their last two home games (v MIN, v FCD). Then they lost to Orlando away. They currently hold the “seeded” play-in spot, but they’re falling, if not as fast as (again) Seattle, Minnesota and San Jose. Almost certainly related, Pablo Mastroeni teams have a tendency to burn hot, fast, and too early.

At long last, we get to teams with a little life in them….

Colorado Rapids, 7th in the West (still just 28 points)
It’s not so simple as asking, “where are they playing” – they beat Minnesota on the road (back in May, yes, but that still counts) – but the Rapids do rock a 7-3-0 record at home versus stinking up the host’s shitter with that 2-8-1 road record. Colorado generally keeps games close – 1-0 wins are their jam, 0-3 losses (at San Diego) their pratfalls – and they’re playing literal .500 ball (5-5-0 over the past 10). The enterprise writ large has a random, fragile vibe that I can’t unsee, but I still like the Rapids’ chances better than all the teams below them besides Portland and San Diego.

FC Cincinnati, 6th in the East (31 points)
Every day was “Western Days” on both sides of the World Cup break for the Orange and Blue (aka, they had shootouts), but the final scores have calmed down over the past three games. Cincy went 1-0-2 over the latter stretch versus 3-2-1 during their Wild West days. Maybe Cincy’s at their best with hair flowing in the wind? The attack is fine, great even, but they won’t go anywhere until they get at least a couple of the leaks in defense plugged.

Charlotte FC, 5th in the East (32 points)
Charlotte has somehow played seven of its past 10 regular season games at home. Even with the four dumb points dropped at home v Cincy and Atlanta, they have a good thing going – 5-3-2 over their past 10 games – they look good for 5th in the East, and that Cincy draw happened months ago (May 9). Charlotte also “boasts” a 2-5-2 road record and play eight of their final 13 games on the road. Slippage feels like a possibility, but they have plenty of cushion to get into the playoffs. It’ll take getting better to do anything with that, but the scoring has loosened up a little lately.

St. Louis CITY FC, 6th in the West (33 points)
To paraphrase the beloved (by some? right?) Brian Dunseth, St. Louis has risen like a salmon with all the momentum with which several Western teams (again, San Jose, Seattle and Minnesota) have fallen. The schedule has been padded (not quite soft), but they haven’t lost in ten and won seven of those. Whatever’s doing’s working, basically, and it was enough to lift St. Louis from a 2-6-3 start to sixth in the West and five points above the PLAY-IN line. One of the league’s hottest teams, etc.

FC Dallas, 5th in the West (33 points)
Among the trickiest reads in MLS, honestly. Dallas is right in the mix – in the middle of a pack of three on 33 points, 5th in the West, a mere two points behind LAFC with a game in hand (along with a rising St. Louis and a stalled-out San Jose) – and they have a 5-3-2 record of their past 10 games. They also played their past eight games on the road. For reference, their home record is 6-4-2, their home record 3-2-4. Given how much time has lapsed since Dallas played its last regular season game at home (May 13), one could argue a different iteration of the team built that home record…

San Jose Earthquakes, 4th in the West (33 points)
The Flight of Icarus comes to MLS. I haven’t seen a team’s fortunes crash like this since the 2026 Seattle Sounders (hey-oh!). The entrails are decidedly bloody and rancid (aka, bad). This team hasn’t won since killing Phil Neville’s job (a lifetime ago, trust me!), and they played four of those games at home. If there’s a faster way to lose your “Good Team” card than going 0-3-1 and getting outscored 3-13, I’m not sure I’ve seen it. San Jose banked enough points to keep their noses above the mire, but I can’t see that lasting at a 1-7-2 clip.

New England Revolution, 4th in the East (34 points)
One of the quieter stumblers in MLS, the Revs haven’t beat a team anyone believes in since edging (oh.) Minnesota back in mid-May. They’re bad on the road (2-5-2) and travelled for four of their past five games, a note that serves as both comment (excusable) and warning (can a bad road team thrive in post-season?). The home record should keep them near the top, but the road, capable teams, and Toronto (for some reason) seem to give them fits.

Los Angeles FC, 3rd in the West (35 points)
They have to be a contender in the West, right? Sturdy set up with a couple stars on top, promising goal differential? (Fwiw, 3rd best in MLS behind Nashville and Vancouver at +14.) All true (probably), but they just hit a four-game winless wobble (@ VAN, v SD, @ COL, v POR) and the four wins before came against some wobbly teams (v SEA, @ LAF, v RSL, v SKC). So, yeah, hard to read, but still probably not going away till the post-season.

Chicago Fire FC, 3rd in the East (36 points)
I mostly want to congratulate Chicago for their first strong season in years. They’re on a strong run – 6-3-1 over their past 10, most against decent teams and immediate threats/rivals (e.g., Red Bull), i.e., not a soft schedule. Red Bull took four points of six; the other losses came at Miami and NYC, aka, all pretty reasonable and it leaves getting Red Bull in the playoffs as the main immediate worry.

Houston Dynamo, 2nd in the West (38 points)
Not unlike another legacy MLS team (Chicago), Houston is flying by any measure. 7-2-1 over their past 10 games, getting strong wins (e.g., at New England and home and away wins against Vancouver), and generally checking the boxes that any fan wants to see her team check – i.e., showing they can beat any team on any given day. After several seasons disappearing into the scenery, Houston is officially interesting.

Inter Miami CF, 2nd in the East (39 points)
Similar story to LAFC, honestly: on a four-game winless streak, and even the loss at Nashville (1-4) doesn’t yell “favorites!” (Other three games: v CLB, @ PHI, v TFC; just two points out of that.) Probably some sad Argie vibes leading to those late results, but that shaky home form (3-2-4 versus the robust 8-2-2 road record) keeps catching my eye. Miami will make the playoffs. Between that and the fact they can beat any other team on any given day keeps ‘em relevant.

Vancouver Whitecaps, 1st in the West (40 points)
Kicking all sides of Dallas’ ass last weekend probably came as a real relief, because Vancouver’s picking up points at a slower clip than Houston (and, why not, St. Louis). Still dominant at home (8-2-1) and they only got back home after six straight road games, plus one more at Seattle (and with a new five-year lease in their back pockets! the ‘Caps are staying!). Vancouver will play two fewer home games before wrapping up the regular season, so the main thing I’m looking for is whether they can either improve that road record (4-2-3) or pick up enough home wins to hold onto 1st in the West.

Nashville SC, 1st in the East, 1st in MLS (49 points)
Tearing shit up, haven’t put foot wrong by acquisition or performance – i.e., who gives a shit about a stupid loss (e.g., 0-1 loss at Orlando) when it comes in an 8-1-1 run? – and the fastest to 49 points in MLS history: Nashville’s the best team in MLS right and they are, in fact, presently running away with it.

Fuck me, that was long. I plan on posting weekly roundups going forward, but none will be this long. Expect something topped with a little scouting report for Portland’s next opponent (and those should look more like what’s above than they have in the past) and a half dozen of the most interesting thing from the previous match day. And you should only expect those in weeks without mid-week games. Till Saturday night or Sunday morning!