Colorado Rapids 2-0 Portland Timbers: Kindly Stop Saying "Unbeaten in Three"

In a word, the strategy feels off...

A sum of the sum of things. As in one example of several things. I think that gets to the marrow of it.

Would it help if Timbers attackers did better with their rare chances? Of course. When the call came, neither Marvin Loria nor Santiago Moreno answered (shit…there was one more chance I’m forgetting, but…). Loria, at least, had a dynamite moment of half-consciousness proficiency at the end of the first half, and off the Portland Timbers’ best chance of the day (helluva shot, kid), but Timbers attackers mostly fired the ball over William Yarbrough’s goal like they thought that was the point of the game. To float a theory, when your team isn’t great at finishing chances, that only raises the importance of creating more of them - i.e., if you only score once in every 30 chances, getting to 30 chances as quickly as possible feels like the shortest distance to goal. This being the age of analytics, a necessary disclaimer: I don’t know the Timbers’ goal:chance ratio. I only know they don’t generate a lot of good chances (40 shots total over their last three games), and that makes every chance a little more sacred.

Speaking of creating chances, the Colorado Rapids’ xG spiked for the first time after Diego Rubio got sent off in the 63rd minute. And, sadly, that's what it looked like in real time. The Timbers, meanwhile, flat-lined for the next 10-15 minutes thereafter and generally pissed away a man-advantage for the last 30 minutes of the game. The Big Bad Wolf howling at the brick house. And that seems to be a theme for 2022.

That inspired the title, by the way. After three games unbeaten, the Timbers got beat tonight - 2-0 at the Colorado Rapids - but I can’t remember the last time Portland looked like beating any team. Playing at that level puts their ceiling at draws, most of them goal-less, and that’s not a great place to be for a variety of reasons, up to and including entertainment. Worse, they haven’t exactly played the cream of MLS during that time - i.e., at Houston, v Real Salt Lake, and, tonight, at Colorado, aka, as close to middling (and yet still higher than the Timbers) that it gets - and that adds up to 282 minutes, plus stoppage time and in reasonably playable conditions, since the Timbers have scored a goal. I never thought Colorado on the road would be easy, but the few chances Portland got seemed to surprise (and baffle) them as much as they did me and it’s been the same thing for a while now: they don’t make chances, they grasp at them. So long as a team plays like that, the defense needs to have a perfect evening, maybe even something Disney magical…and yet the 0-2 final score speaks for itself…

MLS Weakly, Week 8: Take a Grain of Salt and Pass It Around

Goals.

Tell me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m tinkering with the format on this weekly reviews. Also, sorry it’s late! Note that I did not say “these weekly reviews,” because I am an architect who forever designs buildings, but who has never stood one up, amen. With that, let’s unroll the next set of glorious plans…

First up, here are all the results for Major League Soccer’s eighth full week, with links to The Mothership’s game summaries embedded in each final score and all the games on which I spent some time in bold. Because they’re the most important ones. Mostly. Oh, and I hung an asterisk on all the games that didn't go as I'd (and I'm guessing most people) expected.

FC Dallas 2-1 Houston Dynamo (ESPN+ didn’t have this one; also, fuck those guys)
Philadelphia Union 1-1 Club du Foot Montreal
Minnesota United FC 3-0 Chicago Fire FC
DC United 3-2 New England Revolution*
Austin FC 3-0 Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City 0-0 Columbus Crew SC
Colorado Rapids 0-0 Charlotte FC
Portland Timbers 0-0 Real Salt Lake (I have extended, embittered notes on this one)
San Jose Earthquakes 4-3 Seattle Sounders*
Los Angeles Galaxy 1-0 Nashville SC
Inter Miami CF 2-1 Atlanta United FC
Orlando City SC 0-3 Red Bull New York
FC Cincinnati 1-2 Los Angeles FC (I have extended, oddly contented notes on this one)
New York City FC 5-4 Toronto FC*

Again, the fact I didn’t look closer at a given game can mean any number of things - e.g., I didn’t have access to the content (see above), I expected the result (see below), I ran out of time (a general statement), the teams involved bore the buggery bejesus outta me (ibid.), etc. To give some examples from the above: Dallas beating Houston continues to boost a signal that they may do more than step to the edge of the mix in 2022 (and that they punch pretty hard at home), or even that that step may include shoving a struggling Rapids team out of it (and can a rate/shit-on player like Gyasi Zardes avert that fate?). To dig just one hand shovel’s length deeper (and both thoughts come from Matt Doyle’s Week 8 review*), what does the fact (or the argument) that Dallas slept-walked through 70 minutes of that game do to that calculus? Or should fans/pundits/punters take it as a given that either or both Montreal or Nashville will fire up the standings now that both are poised to return home after long road-trips?

[* Ed. - To be clear, I really value Matt Doyle’s work and insights, but, golly, there are times it feels like he gets paid by the narrative.]

FC Cincinnati 1-2 Los Angeles FC: Trying on Rose-Colored Glasses

FC Cincinnati at home, artist's rendering.

Porltand Timbers 0-0 Real Salt Lake: A Stat That Screamed Volumes

Look, just hear me out...

For once, I can honestly say this won’t take long.

Second, the facts: the Portland Timbers drew Real Salt Lake 0-0 at Providence Park last night. Neither team deserved more than one point, though, all things considered, RSL had the two best looks at goal and therefore the better claim on all three points. (Also, it really says something when the video secton of the game summary includes no individual highlights.)That said, after enduring this game, I feel like I could make the beginning of a case that some draws should see both teams awarded zero points; maybe leave it to a panel of international judges to decide, as in Olympic ice skating, only screen them to make sure real-world political alliances don’t slip any mischief into the final analysis.

To linger in that alternate universe, if I had to argue the Timbers’ right to one point to those judges, the case I made would go something like this: they posted decent numbers and put enough shots on frame to meet some bare standard for competence; moreover, a (reportedly) dodgy hip forced them to play without their lucky rabbit’s foot, aka, Diego Chara. Finally, and this is a personal note, they did one thing I asked of them in my preview for this match [Ed. - that’ll be the last one I post this season; those are fucking up the writing schedule.]: multiple Timbers shot the ball from range, with Cristhian Paredes taking the two best cracks, with honorable mention to Bill Tuiloma.

Now…if I was the prosecutor…

To start, the fact that Paredes (a box-to-box midfielder) and Tuiloma (a central defender) fired Portland’s best shots means a whole bunch of dudes didn’t show up for their shift last night. Santiago Moreno cut inside and clipped a decent shot toward Zac MacMath’s goal, but that one, like nearly all the rest, looked something a teammate would fire at him in warm-ups. Too many players - to name names, Dairon Asprilla, Eryk Williamson, Yimmi Chara, and, yes, Sebastian Blanco - continue to look rusty, something that simply won't do one-quarter into the regular season. The defense did all right, collectively, but Claudio Bravo will miss next week’s game at the Colorado Rapids due to a stupid, yet very on-brand tackle in the (fucking) corner of the field (the dark side of eagerness), and…just…for why Josecarlos Van Rankin? The argument that the Timbers can’t do better in that position just depresses me at this point. I mean, have the Timbers tried walking through the stands to ask for volunteers, because random, solicited tryouts stopped feeling irrational at the beginning of April. Related, I going to need some rose-colored glasses and a couple cocktails laced with ecstasy to make me feel good about the fullback situation next week.

FC Cincinnati Preview: On Beards & Handling a Sharp Object

Yep. Scary.

So, you’ve got the current Supporters’ Shield leaders coming to your place for a visit. How do you prepare? What steps can your team take to make this visit as frustrating and generally unpleasant as possible?

The work of preparing an answer to those questions falls on FC Cincinnati. For what it’s worth, I’d call getting past the idea of Los Angeles FC as somehow invincible a first necessary step. It gets harder from there, unfortunately…

When LAFC beat Sporting Kansas City 3-1 last weekend, they played a certain way, one that looked familiar, but still different in their win over Sporting Kansas City in Week 7, something familiar, but still different, from what they played like when they first joined MLS (think of a man you've known for a long time showing up with (or without) a beard the next time you see him; just work with me). Back then, LAFC deployed what I recall as a “second-wave press” - i.e., they’d keep the forward players high-ish, but without chasing much, but would go after the first ball into midfield like fucking piranhas and then “Red Bull” teams to death - i.e., the two-to-four-pass-then-goal/miss/corner attack - after the turnover. It was a spin on Red Bull New York’s gegen-press and relentless described it well.

The “relentless” essence hasn’t changed, but where and how it happens has. For one, new coach Steve Cherundolo has dialed back the defensive posture from “hunt” to “step” - i.e., they pressure the ball, only more with emphasis on creating conditions for turnovers than actively forcing them (for what it’s worth, I’d argue this shift started under Bob Bradley). While this has changed where the attack starts (e.g., deeper), it hasn’t rewired its fundamental impulses. LAFC under Cherundolo still gets the ball forward quickly and keep pushing forward once they get it up there; these forays either succeed or fail in short order, but they also have the cumulative effect of steady, targeted probing. I even saw this in their loss to the Los Angeles Galaxy. To lift a phrase out of the MLS Weakly for Week 7:

“[LAFC] hardly played SKC off the pitch - and the numbers back that up - but they played with…I guess I’d call it persistence. LAFC gets hold of the ball and just keeps probing, Kwadwo Opoku from one side, Latif Blessing from another, like a series of small fires. Ismael Tajouri-Shradi’s wunder-goal drew most of the attention, but I see Jose Cifuentes’ insurance goal as the real payoff for all that work.”

Portland Timbers Preview: Versus RSL, Desperation & Despondency

The elephant calling bullshit on the image...

First, I’m going to my first Portland Timbers game since that God-forsaken game against Minnesota United FC at the height of last summer’s heatwave, which, taking everything together, it felt like watching a game on fucking Mars. At any rate…

…wait, one more thing. FC Cincinnati plays Los Angeles FC this week and, because LAFC is a Western Conference team, I came in and out of thinking Portland plays LAFC this weekend and Cincy played…shit, I don’t know? Cleveland? Memphis? By that I mean another team in the league, obviously(?), but that still kicked my brain brain from one thought process to another as I mapped out the what ifs. It got a little multi-versey, honestly…

Real Salt Lake. Portland hosts RSL tomorrow. And I’m going…fuck, how does the SeatGeek app work? Now, seriously, the game…

Between recent results - e.g., New York City FC handed them their heads, asses, and everything in between last weekend, then they tripped over the North Colorado Hailstorm in the U.S. Open Cup at midweek - and their late form (grimace along at home), I expect them to come into Providence Park in some place in between despondency and desperation. And I suspect that how they approach Saturday’s game will turn on where they fall on that spectrum.

Based on their approach to the first several games of 2022, particularly their early successes, I expect desperation will be the dominant mode and, therefore, expect RSL to play an aggressive game, if not a very aggressive game - e.g., they’ll hunt the ball, challenge everything that comes at them, 90 minutes on the front-foot, and so on; basically, I expect them to play according to the Gospel of Mastroeni. Their hot start cooled off - they haven’t won in four and have just two points from 12 - and that rhymes with the broad theory that they played over their heads and/or teams embroiled in CONCACAF Champions’ League campaigns early in the season and have since crashed back down to Earth. Moreover, the road game at Portland kicks off a tough stretch, or, rather, continues it, seeing as they played away to New York City FC last weekend. About which…

I tuned in just after the 20th minute, which amounted to two goals too late. New York piled on chances, then goals, and the final score looked like a teeter-totter with an elephant on one side and a mouse on the other…only/, unlike in the cartoons, the elephant didn’t remotely mind the mouse. It ended 6-0 and, in certain moments, 10-0 didn’t seem out of the question.

MLS Weakly, 04 19 2021: A Weekend at the Donut Shop & Other Anomalies

A commentary on the 0-0 draws.

I didn’t know how much I missed watching people get weird in the stands until I saw some good ones this past weekend - e.g., the 10-year-old kid straight-up shrieking at a Philadelphia Union player as he took a corner, the kid in Columbus giving a comic thumbs down to Orlando’s Ercan Kara as he walked off the field with his mortified younger sister slapping at his thumbs to stop him, the middle-aged guy who comforted his visibly, yet mysteriously, anxious wife up in New England: ah, vignettes of the human condition.

Where to begin? First, I watched as much uninterrupted soccer over the past weekend as I normally do in two, maybe even three. What did I learn from all that? I learned I should take more notes, if nothing else, because even if you’re watching mid-afternoon sober, it takes something spectacular or violent to keep that shit from running together…and that’s less advocating for more violence in soccer, than saying I had to rely on kits more than I usually do to keep track of who I was watching. The spectacular doesn’t come up nearly often enough, of course, but isn’t that what makes it so?

At any rate, starved as I am for even gently-extended video to review, I’ve started watching chunks of the archived replays. That means dipping in at random to some extent, which means seeing defenders having tea parties, players running and falling all over midfield, shitty passes, time-wasting, the barking flash-mobs that gather ‘round referee, and all, but it also gives a more honest look at how a team holds its shape and plays in real time. The sample isn’t pure - my general practice is to watch 5 or more minutes on either side of the goals in the game, also, hold that thought - and it gets my eyes on games with a little less of the bullshit. Some things go missing - e.g., sitting through the middle 25 minutes or so of Toronto FC’s (broadly impressive) 2-1 home win over Philly meant I didn’t see the end where Philly jacked-up their numbers and, presumably, the pressure. Anyway, enough about my methods and problems. Here are all the results from Major League Soccer Week 7, with The Mothership’s summaries embedded in the final score:

Club du Foot Montreal 2-1 Vancouver Whitecaps FC
San Jose Earthquakes 2-2 Nashville SC
Atlanta United FC 0-0 FC Cincinnati*
Houston Dynamo FC 0-0 Portland Timbers (my extended notes, about as exciting as the score)
Red Bull New York 0-0 FC Dallas
New England Revolution 2-1 Charlotte FC
Columbus Crew SC 0-2 Orlando City SC
Toronto FC 2-1 Philadelphia Union
DC United 2-3 Austin FC
Minnesota United FC 3-1 Colorado Rapids
Chicago Fire FC 0-0 Los Angeles Galaxy
Seattle Sounders 0-1 Inter Miami CF
New York City FC 6-0 Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles FC 3-1 Sporting Kansas City

[Ed. - * Yes, I see the final score, yes, I wish I still would have watched it. Assholes…]