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| The elephant calling bullshit on the image... |
First, I’m going to my first Portland Timbers game since that God-forsaken game against Minnesota United FC at the height of last summer’s heatwave, which, taking everything together, it felt like watching a game on fucking Mars. At any rate…
…wait, one more thing. FC Cincinnati plays Los Angeles FC this week and, because LAFC is a Western Conference team, I came in and out of thinking Portland plays LAFC this weekend and Cincy played…shit, I don’t know? Cleveland? Memphis? By that I mean another team in the league, obviously(?), but that still kicked my brain brain from one thought process to another as I mapped out the what ifs. It got a little multi-versey, honestly…
Real Salt Lake. Portland hosts RSL tomorrow. And I’m going…fuck, how does the SeatGeek app work? Now, seriously, the game…
Between recent results - e.g., New York City FC handed them their heads, asses, and everything in between last weekend, then they tripped over the North Colorado Hailstorm in the U.S. Open Cup at midweek - and their late form (grimace along at home), I expect them to come into Providence Park in some place in between despondency and desperation. And I suspect that how they approach Saturday’s game will turn on where they fall on that spectrum.
Based on their approach to the first several games of 2022, particularly their early successes, I expect desperation will be the dominant mode and, therefore, expect RSL to play an aggressive game, if not a very aggressive game - e.g., they’ll hunt the ball, challenge everything that comes at them, 90 minutes on the front-foot, and so on; basically, I expect them to play according to the Gospel of Mastroeni. Their hot start cooled off - they haven’t won in four and have just two points from 12 - and that rhymes with the broad theory that they played over their heads and/or teams embroiled in CONCACAF Champions’ League campaigns early in the season and have since crashed back down to Earth. Moreover, the road game at Portland kicks off a tough stretch, or, rather, continues it, seeing as they played away to New York City FC last weekend. About which…
I tuned in just after the 20th minute, which amounted to two goals too late. New York piled on chances, then goals, and the final score looked like a teeter-totter with an elephant on one side and a mouse on the other…only/, unlike in the cartoons, the elephant didn’t remotely mind the mouse. It ended 6-0 and, in certain moments, 10-0 didn’t seem out of the question.
The funny thing is, RSL never looked terrible, or at least not fully incompetent. As the box score implies, RSL had passages of coherent play, they moved the ball reasonably well, and they created some respectable-to-decent chances. It was when they didn't have the ball that they ran into trouble. Or, rather, a buzzsaw. NYCFC pulled them apart and ran over the spatchcocked carcass; RSL ran one step behind all afternoon - as demonstrated by the two penalty-kicks they surrendered. Then again, alert readers will recall that the Timbers gave up two penalty-kicks to the Vancouver Whitecaps a couple weekends ago, and all that comes in as well.
Now, on the hopeful side, the Timbers have run over RSL a couple times, just last year, in fact. (And I mean that literally; the Timbers struggled with them in 2020). Best case, just seeing cobalt and claret will loosen up some of the tightness that hobbled the Timbers attack all season. Barring that kind of randy bull energy, however, I don’t see them replicating NYCFC’s sparking afternoon - and that’s what makes tips me toward the theory that the Timbers will face an RSL team that is energetic. The overall logic of the situation points to it, for one: it's not just giving up those two PKs to Vancouver, but also the four goals on the road against FC Dallas and the three to the Los Angeles Galaxy at home. Putting the Timbers defense under sustained pressure makes sense, bascially, because they have a history of getting frazzled and/or checking out one or two members at a time. Besides, what informs the unity-through-battle vibe I get from RSL’s head/life-coach-in-the-making, Pablo Mastroeni louder than maximal effort?
The bigger question is whether they’ll have the legs to pull it off. Again, RSL played midweek and logged at lot of miles flying, while the Timbers flew once and spent the past week at home.
If RSL shows up and invites the Timbers to come at them - this is the despondent mode, btw - an approach that’ll pose its own, achingly familiar problems [Ed. - Honestly, I don’t think I need to elaborate on these] - but, even if that's somehow wise or, gods forbid, savvy, I think they’ll weigh their needs (getting desperate; see allusion to “tough stretch” above) against Portland’s just sort of global aura of shaken confidence and gamble on getting three points at the risk of getting zero. Moreover, the Timbers’ specific vulnerabilities seem fairly well-known by now and RSL has good pieces to pick at them - e.g., Aaron Herrera and whoever RSL starts on the right (Sergio Cordova has seen a lot of starts; he looked quick if I remember right) tempting Claudio Bravo into lunges and fouls, and Meram can merrily toy with the ever-panicked Josecarlos Van Rankin all game long from the left. Worse, Damir Kreilach has started the past two games, and Bobby Wood the last one, so they’ll have better foils and targets with which to work - both in open-play and on set pieces.
For what it’s worth, I think the Timbers will manage Plan A - i.e., RSL going for it - better than they’ll handle Plan B - i.e., RSL inviting the Timbers forward. That felt like the takeaway from 2021's 6-1 rout over RSL, if I remember right. From Portland’s point of view, I think RSL have transition opportunities built into either approach; they’ll either force turnovers and “Red Bull” Portland, or they’ll bunker and counter. I see problems from either, and I can't decide which gives me the hairier heebie-jeebies.
I expect this will be a tricky game for the Timbers, basically, even as I’d embrace being wrong like the son I never had. I elaborated on the issues I see in the attack quite a bit in the write-up on last weekend’s road draw in Houston (scroll down) and I generally feel the weight of anxiety spread between and among the players who start higher than and to the side of Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes. The defense will or won't fuck up, but they land the "won't" often enough to make me feel like I can rely on them now and again. If I’m looking for anything on Saturday, it’s some combination of faster and more confident movement, by both ball and players, in and around the attacking third, and less passing in search of an elusive slam-dunk look. In practice, that’ll manifest as players firing more readily from range and crossing sooner rather than later when the balls get wide. Related, I’d like to see them give up on dead-end attacks instead of trying to force either the issue or errors. Call it a combination of immediate urgency and strategic patience - i.e., if it’s not on, turn it off and fumble for another switch.
We’ll see how it goes on Saturday…
…wait, one more thing. FC Cincinnati plays Los Angeles FC this week and, because LAFC is a Western Conference team, I came in and out of thinking Portland plays LAFC this weekend and Cincy played…shit, I don’t know? Cleveland? Memphis? By that I mean another team in the league, obviously(?), but that still kicked my brain brain from one thought process to another as I mapped out the what ifs. It got a little multi-versey, honestly…
Real Salt Lake. Portland hosts RSL tomorrow. And I’m going…fuck, how does the SeatGeek app work? Now, seriously, the game…
Between recent results - e.g., New York City FC handed them their heads, asses, and everything in between last weekend, then they tripped over the North Colorado Hailstorm in the U.S. Open Cup at midweek - and their late form (grimace along at home), I expect them to come into Providence Park in some place in between despondency and desperation. And I suspect that how they approach Saturday’s game will turn on where they fall on that spectrum.
Based on their approach to the first several games of 2022, particularly their early successes, I expect desperation will be the dominant mode and, therefore, expect RSL to play an aggressive game, if not a very aggressive game - e.g., they’ll hunt the ball, challenge everything that comes at them, 90 minutes on the front-foot, and so on; basically, I expect them to play according to the Gospel of Mastroeni. Their hot start cooled off - they haven’t won in four and have just two points from 12 - and that rhymes with the broad theory that they played over their heads and/or teams embroiled in CONCACAF Champions’ League campaigns early in the season and have since crashed back down to Earth. Moreover, the road game at Portland kicks off a tough stretch, or, rather, continues it, seeing as they played away to New York City FC last weekend. About which…
I tuned in just after the 20th minute, which amounted to two goals too late. New York piled on chances, then goals, and the final score looked like a teeter-totter with an elephant on one side and a mouse on the other…only/, unlike in the cartoons, the elephant didn’t remotely mind the mouse. It ended 6-0 and, in certain moments, 10-0 didn’t seem out of the question.
The funny thing is, RSL never looked terrible, or at least not fully incompetent. As the box score implies, RSL had passages of coherent play, they moved the ball reasonably well, and they created some respectable-to-decent chances. It was when they didn't have the ball that they ran into trouble. Or, rather, a buzzsaw. NYCFC pulled them apart and ran over the spatchcocked carcass; RSL ran one step behind all afternoon - as demonstrated by the two penalty-kicks they surrendered. Then again, alert readers will recall that the Timbers gave up two penalty-kicks to the Vancouver Whitecaps a couple weekends ago, and all that comes in as well.
Now, on the hopeful side, the Timbers have run over RSL a couple times, just last year, in fact. (And I mean that literally; the Timbers struggled with them in 2020). Best case, just seeing cobalt and claret will loosen up some of the tightness that hobbled the Timbers attack all season. Barring that kind of randy bull energy, however, I don’t see them replicating NYCFC’s sparking afternoon - and that’s what makes tips me toward the theory that the Timbers will face an RSL team that is energetic. The overall logic of the situation points to it, for one: it's not just giving up those two PKs to Vancouver, but also the four goals on the road against FC Dallas and the three to the Los Angeles Galaxy at home. Putting the Timbers defense under sustained pressure makes sense, bascially, because they have a history of getting frazzled and/or checking out one or two members at a time. Besides, what informs the unity-through-battle vibe I get from RSL’s head/life-coach-in-the-making, Pablo Mastroeni louder than maximal effort?
The bigger question is whether they’ll have the legs to pull it off. Again, RSL played midweek and logged at lot of miles flying, while the Timbers flew once and spent the past week at home.
If RSL shows up and invites the Timbers to come at them - this is the despondent mode, btw - an approach that’ll pose its own, achingly familiar problems [Ed. - Honestly, I don’t think I need to elaborate on these] - but, even if that's somehow wise or, gods forbid, savvy, I think they’ll weigh their needs (getting desperate; see allusion to “tough stretch” above) against Portland’s just sort of global aura of shaken confidence and gamble on getting three points at the risk of getting zero. Moreover, the Timbers’ specific vulnerabilities seem fairly well-known by now and RSL has good pieces to pick at them - e.g., Aaron Herrera and whoever RSL starts on the right (Sergio Cordova has seen a lot of starts; he looked quick if I remember right) tempting Claudio Bravo into lunges and fouls, and Meram can merrily toy with the ever-panicked Josecarlos Van Rankin all game long from the left. Worse, Damir Kreilach has started the past two games, and Bobby Wood the last one, so they’ll have better foils and targets with which to work - both in open-play and on set pieces.
For what it’s worth, I think the Timbers will manage Plan A - i.e., RSL going for it - better than they’ll handle Plan B - i.e., RSL inviting the Timbers forward. That felt like the takeaway from 2021's 6-1 rout over RSL, if I remember right. From Portland’s point of view, I think RSL have transition opportunities built into either approach; they’ll either force turnovers and “Red Bull” Portland, or they’ll bunker and counter. I see problems from either, and I can't decide which gives me the hairier heebie-jeebies.
I expect this will be a tricky game for the Timbers, basically, even as I’d embrace being wrong like the son I never had. I elaborated on the issues I see in the attack quite a bit in the write-up on last weekend’s road draw in Houston (scroll down) and I generally feel the weight of anxiety spread between and among the players who start higher than and to the side of Diego Chara and Cristhian Paredes. The defense will or won't fuck up, but they land the "won't" often enough to make me feel like I can rely on them now and again. If I’m looking for anything on Saturday, it’s some combination of faster and more confident movement, by both ball and players, in and around the attacking third, and less passing in search of an elusive slam-dunk look. In practice, that’ll manifest as players firing more readily from range and crossing sooner rather than later when the balls get wide. Related, I’d like to see them give up on dead-end attacks instead of trying to force either the issue or errors. Call it a combination of immediate urgency and strategic patience - i.e., if it’s not on, turn it off and fumble for another switch.
We’ll see how it goes on Saturday…
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