Portland Timbers 0-0 Sporting Kansas City: "He's Had a Poor Night, John" Signed Stu Holden

The waiting is, and is not, the hardest part.

To start with the oft-repeated conventional wisdom from the broadcast – which I happen to agree with – neither the Portland Timbers nor Sporting Kansas City minds this result. To get all the prognostication(/bullshit) out of the way, the dynamics of the return leg play to Portland’s strengths, and for the same reason that this first leg played against them: Portland lived by transition all season, and the second game will put them back in their best shoes.

At the same time, yes, this result was not ideal (maybe; see closing arguments) and, as much as I think the Timbers have the game-plan/personnel to win any one game, 1) there are easier things than winning on the road against Sporting Kansas City, and 2) they could have won “any one game,” say, tonight, but they didn’t…and doesn’t that explode that particular fallacy? So, no, not the ideal outcome – give me what Atlanta did to the Red Bulls, only against SKC – but that’s where my thoughts on tonight’s pregnant, goal-less draw really start:

What specific thing would you have had otherwise? Or, from the other side, which Portland player made a defining mistake, or even generally failed to execute in today's goal-less home draw?

Blame Stu Holden for the title: that was close to his final assessment on Dairon Asprilla, and that wasn’t my thought for him. Sure, Dairon Asprilla killed a couple of attacks, but I’d still rate him at better than his regular season average on the night (if a couple steps below his prime-time playoff prime). More often, though, he and every player in Timbers green stayed composed on the ball, made good decisions/passes, made even better defensive reads, and generally took the game to Sporting KC. Asprilla’s better than average spread around the team to where I saw Zarek Valentin hold down right back as if he dropped anchor there; Jorge Villafana got into the attack wide, inside and judiciously; David Guzman defended better, smarter and more aggressively than he has all season, and Jeremy Ebobisse played bounces like ballet and, holy cow, do I have questions there (What, exactly, was the coaching staff waiting for from this kid?). On top of that, Diego Valeri looks 30 all over again, Sebastian Blanco’s influence continues to grow and Diego Chara needs a firehouse named in his honor right now as in no point in waiting and the people at the cutting ceremony better be damned important. If your primary definition of God is omnipresence, what is Chara but God?

The complicated truth of this moment is that the Portland Timbers are playing as well right now as they have all season. That’s great because it has carried them as far as it has – for those in need of a reminder, heading into the second leg of a playoff series, dead even in everything but (by all accounts, considerable) home-field advantage – but less great because they couldn’t put even one finger on the scale against Sporting KC, and at home.

While I’m on that, I wonder how Sporting Kansas City fans feel about this first leg? Are they confident, stressed, content, twisting language into comfortable little psychiatrist’s couches, or what? If I had to guess – and, if this guess is right, score one for Portland – I suspect this game left them frustrated, and more with the team than the result. This is the second time I’ve brought up the Red Bulls game (I get that), but, because I was pulling for them against Atlanta, I saw, then felt every stupid, forced, then just-plain confounding pass. Did SKC fans feel the same thing after seeing one Timber after another pick off the same kind of passes?

The biggest question going into tonight was whether the Timbers could actually push the game against a team at Sporting KC’s level. They answered with a firm affirmative: “yes, because we are saucy!” I can’t offer a finer, more polished case for Portland Timbers playing as their best selves than their 27^th minute counter that started in the Timbers defensive third with the back of Guzman’s heel. Portland couldn’t find the same kind of lightning much tonight, but they did have their chances (correct, but uptight call) and…just appreciate that the team has the talent and wherewithal to have a top gear that high. The most encouraging thing, though, was that they took over this game somewhere after the 25^th minute and never really let go (a position supported by both the eyes and the box score). SKC had some chances (again, Johnny Russell), but not many good ones, or, better still, not many without a dog pile of green bodies in the way.

Portland showed up to play today. They didn’t show killer instinct on their half chances, but the Timbers showed quality all over the field. This team might not make MLS Cup, but I’ll say this now, and maybe for the first time this season: it won’t be for lack of quality. If I’m guilty of anything this season, it’s underselling the Timbers talent pool, and that’s where I want to close this post on the first leg of the 2018 Western Conference Finals, i.e., with why my chosen team is awesome.

We Got Depth

As much as the Timbers have a clear first-choice central defensive pairing in Liam Ridgewell (incredible game, btw) and Larrys Mabiala (tough break), the team has two solid, thoroughly battle-tested replacements beneath them in Julio Cascante (who is great one-v-one, and…good everywhere else) and, tonight’s savior/sub, Bill Tuiloma. Between Mabiala and Ridgewell, I continue to struggle with naming Portland’s best central defender, but I have absolute faith that this team will never sink below serviceable in central defense. And if Guzman and Chara defend in front of them, and Blanco and Asprilla/Polo defend in front of them, and Valeri and Ebobisse dip in to pick off some of the early stuff, the Portland Timbers will go into every game with a fighting chance until all the above no longer applies or the team loses a maestro or two.

Portland’s (Dirty) Secret

Team defense. First, God bless the FS1 commenting crew (and Stu Holden, specifically) for pointing out how Valeri and Ebobisse took turns choking off the outlet passes to Elie Sanchez; having that system offline made it harder for them to build from the back and direct useful possession. At the same time, that’s a great entre to talking about team defense, aka, the secret to the Portland Timbers’ success all season. Whatever is causing it, it’s rare that I don’t see everyone on the team getting fully stuck-in – and that’s only deepened in the run to/through the playoffs. And yet….

…On a Deeper Level

This Portland team is competitive. After tonight, there remains no reason why the Timbers can’t lift its second MLS Cup. Well, apart from Sporting Kansas City, and one of the other two teams still alive in this thing.

2018 has been a strange experience for me, personally. The realization that I was watching a fairly decent team – if for as long as everyone stayed healthy (and they did) – settled in fairly (even surprisingly) early. And there’s a really weird, generally unspoken component to this in that Portland built a team based on the presence of certain attacking players, especially – e.g., Valeri, Blanco, Chara, Guzman – and the team is only now getting them on the field at the same time and in a time and place where it counts. You’ve got a handful of legacy players besides that – e.g., Ridgewell, who looks more DP-worthy by the week, Zarek and Villafana – who have provided stability on top of raising their games. Finally, you’ve got a real bench option for the first time in a while with Lucas Melano, who really does look good…then again, for how long, and on multiple levels (e.g., will he re-sign up here for a lower salary (or even the same one); can he really produce regularly, or will this be more infertile golden goose?).

If any of that sounds like I’m planning for next year, that’s only halfway true. I spend more time than I should wondering about the current team’s shelf-life (two years, people, two!!), but this playoff series, and in the Timbers’ current form, represents a real chance for glory.

And that’s where this post might really cut against the grain – i.e., tonight’s 0-0 draw might have been the best possible result for the Timbers. Even a 1-0 Timbers win would have required SKC to come out flying and fighting in search of a result; after they scored that hypothetical first goal, who’s to say where the momentum of that moment would have dried up for them? Having the scores still even forces SKC to treat the risk of going down 0-1, or even allowing an away goal at all, with a little more respect. Bottom line, SKC’s ideal first-leg result reads like a Cape Canaveral countdown, with each goal after 4-0 pushing the next game closer and closer to discomfort. And they have good reason to feel uncomfortable.

In order to win on Thursday, Sporting KC has to attack the Timbers, something that (generally) means leaving them open to the counter/transition. And, to bring this post full circle, I find myself deeply encouraged by how well and confidently played against type this afternoon – and all the way down to Dairon Asprilla. Again, every player on the field managed the ball well every time they had enough time to do it. If Portland can’t beat Sporting Kansas City playing like this, they can’t beat Sporting Kansas City.

For what it’s worth , I’m going to bed tonight proud and happy to follow and support this team. We’re in a good moment, people. Enjoy it!