Level Set 2026, the Portland Timbers: Where Things Stand as We Wait for the Whistle to Blow

Hello, 2012.

[Ed. - Factually, yes, I did post a “farewell post” for this blog late last year – and it wasn’t the first time. I very much meant it at the time, but please see the bottom of this post where I mumble some excuses for what will change going forward and why the farewell holds up, if in the most sorta kinda way possible.]

What follows is a brief history of the Portland Timbers, plus more brief notes on whatever long-term tendencies they have. Their 2025 season gets weighed in between those two sections and the whole thing ends with where I see things with them in this very specific moment in time - i.e., less than one week before First Kick 2026. I saw an Adam Sussman skeet telling me that Merritt Paulson told him to expect a couple more signings before then, so it's likely that not everything below is final…and yet, I’m not going to hold my breath for greatness or anything.

The post ends with a scale I came up with to measure the long-term success of every team in Major League Soccer. It does some things well (e.g., count trophies/achievements), other things less well (capture recent trends). It's called the Joint Points Scale and you can find a link that explains what it does. I was really stoned when I came up with the scale and wrote the post. Caveat lector. With that...

…for obvious reasons, this one’s going to go on a bit longer than the others in the series…

Thumbnail History
In my head, I knew the Portland Timbers had some lean seasons before they won MLS Cup 2015. That datapoint receded to where it felt like some other team’s history until I picked through Wikipedia posts about those early seasons, as if thumbing through a yearbook. I also remember the 2015 season through a very specific lens, but I’ll get to that. Starting at the beginning…

10 Thoughts I Had While Watching Portland Draw Minnesota

Minnesota, in human form, at home.

I decided to try something new for match reports and for a couple reasons, but I’ll only bore you with the substantive one: going deep on any given game isn’t so different from running an experiment once with a small and hyper-specific dataset. When you get right down to it, it takes string of results to make a dataset that’s worth a damn – and even those have ups and downs to go around. As my Portland Timbers have demonstrated over the past five (1-3-1) to ten (3-4-3) match days…

Portland Timbers 1-1 Minnesota United FC
About the Game, Still More Briefly
Nothing of note happened in the first half, thus endeth that portion of the post.

Overall, though, pretty goddamn dull, in part due to Minnesota’s soul-sucking approach to the game and in part due to the Timbers looking…familiar in all the wrong ways. Against that, I’m glad I re-watched the second half (I was entertaining through the first viewing, or was I merely hosting, because was I all that entertaining?) because, even as the result felt insufficient (in the biggest picture), Portland put on a better show than I remembered.

Both teams posted better final numbers than I would have guessed after sitting through it (1.5 times). Still, Minnesota put the Timbers in the uncomfortable position of using the ball and the discomfort showed. Nodding back to expectations, the Loons scored on a set piece – a reported specialty for them, despite all the headers over the crossbar (for both teams, really) – with Anthony Markanich adding to his unexpected haul for 2025. Between there and the final whistle, Minnesota either slipped up by allowing Juan David Mosquera time and space in the right channel – either that, or they got cocky and thought they could manage it – and they got within mere minutes of getting away with it. Mosquera snapped back with, 1) one of his best attacking performances of the season, 2) a shot off the crossbar that put-near broke it (certainly somewhere in here), and 3) an assist on Omir Fernandez’s tidy equalizer. Couldn’t feel happier Fernandez, that scrappy little scamp.

Out of context, I’d call this result respectable. Minnesota’s a brick shithouse of a team, they’re a ways higher in the Western Conference standings, if not as high as they would have been if they’d held on, and seeing Portland push to the end felt good. The fact the Timbers pulled it off with a gently rotated starting XI made it feel a little better. Add context back into the mix – i.e., the run of results over the past five, ten games, the reasonable argument that good, competitive teams beat good, competitive teams at home – and things feel a little worse.

Nashville SC 2-0 Portland Timbers: March, or Something Darker?

You get weird shit searching "lion eats lamb."

Nothing says your local team is killing it quite like the broadcast booth doofus saying they “need this half-time whistle." And Nashville SC still had one more goal in them…

About the Game
I noted the Portland Timbers’ first competent breach Nashville’s defensive at the 35th minute in last night’s game. Also of note, the Timbers gave up two penalty kicks in half that time. It’s a hell, goddamn, ass miracle they lost just 0-2 yesterday. No less miraculously, and gods bless James Pantemis, neither of those penalty kicks resulted in a goal. Somewhat maddingly, Nashville didn't need either penalty kick to win the game. Firing at least 21 shots (with 11 on goal) does that for a team. On the same Official Stats page, I see that the Timbers’ fired four shots on goal and, after reviewing the highlights, I also know that half of those came softly off Antony’s shoe, so small wonder, etc. Nashville ran away with just about every attacking statistic and, whatever you think of xG as a concept, seeing theirs at almost eight times Portland’s passes the smell test…

…here I thought the Timbers had a chance at Nashville. Now, I’m just wondering about...things.

Nashville unnerved Portland early by playing balls over the top that put (mostly) Sam Surridge and Hany Mukhtar into a foot race with the Timbers CBs. One super-early one, we're talking just four minutes into the game, saw Finn Surman haul down Mukhtar before he could reach the box, and Zac McGraw shove over Surridge inside it. That was the first penalty, taken by Mukhtar, saved by Pantemis. They got a fair amount of mileage out of that direct attack through the first half, but their second penalty came when Ahmed Qasem slipped into the top left corner of the Timbers’ 18-yard box and Joao Ortiz made that the time to announce his presence with a shove under Qasem’s shoulder. The second penalty, taken by Surridge, and to the same damn spot for some reason, was also saved by Pantemis. Saved penalty kicks often lift a team. Meanwhile, back in Nashville...

Thus began the search for signs of coherence in Portland’s movement on and off the ball and I’m sad to report that the party never came back. Things improved slightly in the second half, notably after Phil Neville pulled Ortiz for Diego Chara (more on that later), but Nashville was already up one goal by then and the rest of game boiled down to them poking and prodding the soft spots in the Timbers’ defense. The goals came, of course, and the only thing that made Nashville’s goals remarkable were the failures that allowed them – e.g., after saving two penalties, how does Pantemis let Andy Najar’s tight-angled shot slip under him? And how much ball-watching does it take for Qasem to run right to left across the seam between Portland’s defense and midfield, before God and everyone, and still get a free, near-post header? Between those and the PKs, that’s four chances, at a minimum, straight-up handed to Nashville. (They left Walker Zimmerman free on a corner! I'm such a snitch!). After the second goal, there was nothing left after that, but the final whistle.

Charlotte FC 2-0 Portland Timbers: About the Thing That Happened and the Thing to Happen

Evander II is dead, long live [Evander II.]

Over the opening six to eight minutes of today’s final preseason game, the Portland Timbers played some of the finest soccer I’ve seen from them since the salad days of mid-June to mid-July 2024. The defensive lines pressed high and disrupted 90% of what Charlotte FC tried to do and Diego Chara sat deep, playing balls long wide to Jimer Fory on the right and…Eric Miller on the left.

Treat the words after the ellipses as a short way of saying that the lineup that Portland started today – a 3-5-2 (probably?) with Felipe Mora and Kevin Kelsy up top, Fory and E. Miller on either side of a midfield block built around Chara, Joao Ortiz, and David Ayala, a back three of Dario Zuparic, Zac McGraw, and Kamal Miller, and Maxime Crepeau in goal – was not and, ideally, will not, could not, and cannot be Phil Neville’s Plan A for the 2025 campaign. I have no insight into how long regular starters like Santiago Moreno, Jonathan Rodriguez, Juan David Mosquera and [New Evander] will get back on the field. I can only hope that start trickling in soon enough to take advantage of one of the softer opening stretches the Timbers have seen for gods know how long. Between First Kick and mid-April, Portland has four home games, three of them winnable and one against a dismantled and limping Los Angeles Galaxy team, and even if Nashville SC has improved (rumors of a flawless preseason have reached this monitoring station), I’ve seen tougher road games. That’s 24 points up for grabs, the balance of them for the taking. Gods know a strong start would do this team good.

Getting back to today’s 0-2 loss to Charlotte, the remaining 72 to 74 didn’t go so good. Even when the game was somewhat even – aka, the first half – Charlotte managed to turn possession into chances before Portland could. Worse, the Timbers faded out of the game, both gradually and quickly (neat trick, btw), and to a point where forcing a draw looked like the best possible outcome for a generally impotent Timbers team. That possibility went “poof” when Charlotte opened the scoring at the 65th minute by working the ball up Portland’s left and finishing the play by findin Kerwin Vargas in a half-space, in the channel (with the butcher knife). From there, there was nothing left to do but let the clock run out…but then new guy, Joao Ortiz, squared the ball one step away from Tyger Smalls (great name, no notes) and he literally lumbered out the field and finished off one of the clumsiest goals I’ve ever seen scored by a professional (which you can relive through the link above, if you so choose). In a world where Portland looked like they’d ever score, that might have a hurt a little. On this one, it just felt like finishing a thought.

Mild Dread & the Preseason So Far

"Mild dread" is very literal on today's internet.

To get preliminaries out of the way, it’s the preseason, nothing matters, not just in the Portland Timbers extended universe, but generally, and I’m not taking much of anything, or even anything at all, from either today’s 0-0 draw against Chicago Fire FC or Wednesday’s 2-1 win over the San Jose Earthquakes. With that in mind…

Broadly
The Timbers looked sharper against San Jose than they did against Chicago, but I didn’t see much for fluid attacking movement in either game – Portland scored two goals against San Jose, one a set-piece, the other one half-trash – so opportunism looks to continue its long reign over well-oiled attacking machinery. Chicago provided stiffer competition – more on that shortly – but I don’t see the point of reading too much into any of that beyond filing away the possibility that the Fire may be further along in its rebuild than San Jose is in theirs. Based on what I saw, Portland’s 2025 Preseason First Team has some capacity to press – with the caveat that starting Felipe Mora disarms that a bit – and that gave them a good half against San Jose and a strong opening 10 minutes against Chicago. Related, I don’t expect much pressing to continue once Evander and Jonathan Rodriguez get back into the fold, but who knows?

Also, four points in two games would look a lot better if it hadn’t come against two of MLS’s most-plagued franchises (seriously, I’ve done the math, both teams are cursed). Still, Portland cleared the bar on the (meaningless) results side…woo-hooooooo.

I multi-tasked through the San Jose game (because working), so the notes below come more from what I saw against Chicago today…but I’m noting them because I believe they still (unfortunately) pertain generally.

The Lingering Issue
The Timbers continue to present as a combination of rushed and disconnected when they get on the ball. The symptoms get worse anytime they play teams that press, or even mark man-to-man, but this feels ominous against a scrolling backdrop of Portland struggling with passing and/or composure on the ball for some seasons now. A few overlapping pathologies either create or play into this problem. Because I just burned a half hour failing to wrestle this into bullet-points, and my bastard brain refused to tap-out, please consider this stream-of-consciousness up-chuck my first draft at examining the problem:

Getting Reacquainted with the Portland Timbers, My Burden, My Boo

Ah, memories.

For obvious reasons, this one’s going to go on a bit longer than the others in the series…

Thumbnail History
In my head, I knew the Portland Timbers had some lean seasons before they won MLS Cup 2015, but it receded to where it felt like some other team’s history until I picked through Wikipedia posts about those early seasons, as if thumbing through a yearbook. I also remember the 2015 season through a very specific lens, but I’ll get to that. Starting at the beginning…

Now that I’ve posted mini-histories for every other team in Major League Soccer (may not be better than a Wikipedia post, but definitely shorter), I was struck by how steadily the Timbers pieced together a competitive team, and how early it came in their MLS history. When Portland graduated from the USL to MLS in 2011, they came in with a roster typical of that time (MLS…2.5?): it started with a few players who came up from the USL team – e.g., Futty Danso, Steve Purdy, Bright Dike, and Kalif Alhassan – which was then beefed up with players typical of every Expansion Draft, i.e., fixer-uppers with a good season or two behind them – e.g., Eric Brunner, Eric Alexander, Kenny Cooper – and capped with the player who was born a cagey vet and who would captain through (most of?) their first several seasons, “Captain” Jack Jewsbury. The key additions from outside the domestic professional ranks included a hot college draft pick named Darlington Nagbe and a Colombian midfielder named Diego Chara, who was sold to expectant fans as an “attacking midfielder.” The front office hired a cliché, aka, a “fiery Scotsman,” aka, John Spencer to coach them, and off they went. The Timbers did reasonably well in that expansion season, missing the playoffs by an AI-generated handful, but they fell headlong into a sophomore slump in Year 2. Despite spotting the right weakness – the attack – and upgrading with a couple Colombians (Sebastian Rincon and Jose Adolfo Valencia, who I barely remember), another reclamation project (Danny Mwanga), and spending on a DP forward (Kris Boyd), all that tinkering didn’t lead to anything good and Boyd, in particular, didn't match the hype.  2012 might have been the Timbers’ worst all-time season (and big shout to Chivas USA and Toronto FC for sparing them the blushes!) - haven’t run the numbers, don’t see the point – but the building blocks started falling in place fairly quickly thereafter. First the front office plucked Caleb Porter from the college ranks (University of Akron) before the end of 2012. The players came next, starting with the Flying Johnsons, Will and Ryan (also, no one called them that), Pa Modou Kah (why not?) came over from the Dutch top-flight, by way of Saudi Arabia – Portland even got a little jiggy when they signed former Manchester United stand-out Mikael Silvestre (who broke quickly) – and, of course, the crown jewel of the 2013 renovation, Diego Valeri. He joined on loan, but made it official (I think) before the year was over and would become a fixture/face-of-the-franchise for the next nine seasons (right? because you count both 2013 and 2021?). The result was an about-face from 2012, and an appetizer for the peak seasons to come: 2013 was arguably the Timbers’ best-ever season, if only on paper: the team was balanced, going well over the average for goals scored, while keeping out well below the average; their post-season ended in the semifinals of the MLS Cup playoffs against what was probably the last, best season for Real Salt Lake’s golden-generation. Portland suffered a…senior slump(?) in the 2014 season, missing the playoffs…and this is where the way I remember 2015 comes up.

Real Salt Lake 3-3 Portland Timbers: A Tale of One and a Half

The boy who cried wolf as an angsty teenager.

Portland Timbers fans have been invited to a transcendentally ridiculous party this season. What can we do but accept the invitation?

Very much related, the Timbers’ wild 3-3 draw at Real Salt Lake defies rational explanation. It was what it was and is what it is. It was necessary to endure the first half, experientially, in order to understand the full import of the second, it is always darkest before the dawn, and on every bloody morning after, one tin soldier will ride away.

Game Notes
The Timbers were very bad in one half, and just good enough in the second to smuggle one point out of Utah. Call it a Tale of One and a Half. I’m sure RSL fans feel aggrieved at the result, for a variety of reasons, but I’d peg one key moment as a shorthand for how/when the game went off the rails for them.

You could see RSL’s ‘keeper, Gavin Beavers (great name, no notes), scrambling to get his defense organized ahead of the corner kick that led to the Timbers’ first and fairly shitty goal. It recalled the boy who cried wolf barking at the villagers when shit got real, at long last, and it went just as well. The cross came in, Eric Miller nicked it more than he met it, but chaos ensued, and the ball rolled to Antony and he, for lack of a better verb, bumbled the ball into the net. At that exact moment, “the most dangerous lead in soccer” went to high alert.

The punchline to the whole thing: RSL had every reason to ignore that boy crying wolf. Their defensive shape and movement had Portland flustered to where they couldn’t connect more than two passes that didn’t go backwards. The Timbers midfield, in particular, didn’t seem to trust one another on either side of the ball; support failed to arrive on the attacking side, leading to wingers getting isolated and Felipe Mora operating in a void, and no one had a clear grasp on how to pass off players and rotate into cover on the defensive side. Between a defense as disarrayed as the Democrats and an offense that barely got off the couch (the Timbers’ official xG in the first half: 0.09), Portland looked doomed to a blowout.

Portland Timbers 2-0 Vancouver Whitecaps: Is This Progress?

Glad to be back home.

Five wins in the last eight games, suddenly 6th in the West sure as Brooke Shields was Suddenly Susan in a sitcom I neither watched nor fully understood in terms of concept and timing. The Portland Timbers won walking away (also) 2-0 against the Vancouver Whitecaps tonight, thereby keeping their Cascadia Cup Dreams primed for the filling and suddenly looking like they’ve learned how to put one foot in front of the other (hold that thought). Better still, JPants picked up his/the Portland Timbers' 3rd clean sheet of 2024 – which makes one wonder (hold that thought, also) – and, better than all that, the entire game played out comfy as a well-worn pair of PJs.

Hold on…

Is it new format time? Yes, it’s new format time. Also, welcome back to the old gym. Hope it smells like memories! Right, back to the new format…

If I Had to Summarize This Game for Someone
Tonight’s game started as so many have: with the Timbers laboring to play the ball out of the back and ceding both possession and control. Vancouver’s Sebastian Berhalter teed up a few solid chances over the opening 20 minutes or so and that inject a little “what could have been” into this game if, say, Fafa Picault or Alessandro Schopf (probably?) could head the ball fer shit. The Timbers snatched after floor scrapings throughout that period, with the choicest pickings coming from Jonathan Rodriguez poking a couple (feeble) shots toward goal from the back-post.

Then suddenly, some light supernatural meddling met the yips for Vancouver and, three lucky bounces and one cool finish later, Portland went up on a cool-as-you-like finish by Rodriguez. And that goal changed the game, at least in my mind. Twenty-six-plus minutes would pass before Schopf got sent off for his second stupid yellow card (gotta be in here somewhere, surely), but Vancouver was, at most, marginally better before his red card than they were after it. Felipe Mora delivered an insurance goal that made me feel as good about the assist as I did about the goal (another thought to hold), but the ‘Caps had 52+ minutes to rack up some shots and they only managed seven, with just one on goal. Vancouver barely showed up tonight, carrying forward a run of form that has seen them slip down the standings like a water buffalo struggling in quicksand.

St. Louis CITY FC 0-0 Portland Timbers: Feeling Good (No, Really) Context-Free

A young Paul Giammati was the butt of the "wNbc" bit.

I don’t actually have a ton of blow-by-blow notes for the Portland Timbers' goal-less draw at St. Louis CITY FC (“wNbc!”), even though the game amounted to a series of isolated escapes from a general muddle. In all honesty, I’m mostly thrilled to see the Timbers keep their second clean sheet of 2024.

That’s not to say St. Louis didn’t come close here and there – e.g., Timbers understudy ‘keeper, James Pantemis, made a save on a Celio Pompeu shot through a thicket of bodies toward the end of the first half and Portland came within the width of Claudio Bravo’s lower leg of going down 0-1 in the 75th minute – and even that immediately followed Eduard Lowen hitting the right far post with a free kick. Tim Parker came close with a header at the 15th too (or thereabouts), Zac McGraw had to run down a through-ball (hat-tip to Joao Klauss for whiffing the shot!), but I doubt even the most rabid St. Louis fan would argue they stormed the castle. You’ll see nearly all of that in the highlights, but about 60% of the total run-time is devoted to dudes picking up yellow cards, with most going to St. Louis.

Portland had their chances – e.g., Jonathan Rodriguez’s shot to the far post around the 3rd minute (before he largely faded into anonymity) and another shot by Evander around the 17th – but their shooting statistics and lowly xG get the story mostly right.

And yet, even if this arguably counts as the Timbers least impressive attacking performance of 2024, it might count as something just as important: one of their more coherent playing performances. Unlike countless prior outings (well, not countless; they’ve played literally 18 games, so this can be quantified), Portland players looked generally connected and less like total strangers than they have across multiple halves of multiple games this season. Given how rare (more or less) wire-to-wire competence has been this season, I see that as something to celebrate.

The Loss v Charlotte FC, Wailing, Lamentations, and Acceptance

The cruelest serving.

You ever get to the end of a long-form math equation only to realize that you did something wrong somewhere and wound up with the wrong result? That’s what the past three match reports I’ve posted (here, here, and here) feel like after the Portland Timbers fucking bummer of a 0-2 loss at Charlotte FC. I’ll get return to the math problem, but let’s start by wrapping up what happened last Saturday with the brevity it deserves.

I don’t see the point of breaking this game down because the work of litigating what went wrong feels like writing the same thing for the…how many games has Portland played in 2024? Eleven? So, yeah, but for some time off early last month, I’d be flagging a lot of the same issues for the eleventh time.

Face-planting disasters in defense? Check! Hell, the Timbers got a two-fer-one out of Zac McGraw last Saturday (see all the way below for links). Struggles with ball progression? Covered! Not on the same page? They weren’t even reading the same goddamn book. It was so bad (how bad was it?), Charlotte’s Enzo Copetti scored a goal in open play. Timbers fans got a brimming plateful of more of the same, basically, only without the thrill of a late rally or the pain of watching an early lead slip away. Another week of dining in Hell’s cafeteria…

Over those past three match reports, I’ve pointed to a green shoot here (Felipe Mora’s back!), a bright spot there (the Timbers’ first complete game of 2024!), and maybe even sprinkled some fairy dust around both to brighten them up a little (Evander will know what to do!). Again, and I cannot possibly stress this enough, the set of problems outlined above has appeared in some form or another in every game this season and the sum of the green shoots + bright spots – (the same problems X 11) = 12th in Major League Soccer’s Western Conference and 24th overall.

Where is the line between looking past bad results and ignoring them? Is it still a green shoot if it doesn’t grow?

Columbus Crew SC 2-2 Portland Timbers: I'm Beginning to See the Light, Here it Comes, Woo-Oooh-Oooh

Here it fucking comes....

I don’t believe in moral victories, as a rule, and I’m not going to take that route for this review. To be clear, that doesn’t mean that the Portland Timbers didn’t play a damn good and wonderfully entertaining game tonight. In fact, the fact they punched even with, for all their present faults and fatigue, a consensus-best team in MLS raises Portland’s 2-2 draw at Columbus Crew SC into disappointment territory. Coulda, shoulda, woulda, etc.

Going the other way, consider how disappointed Columbus fans feel tonight and, to float a guess I may or may not confirm the The Massive subreddit tomorrow, how flaming pissed they are at everyone’s favorite ref, Ted “Drunk” Unkel. In a press conference after the Timbers’ frustrating home draw against Los Angeles FC last weekend (who's ready for the encore?), head coach Phil Neville voiced some hope that calls would break his team’s way over the run of the season. I’m not saying that process tilted toward justice tonight, I’m not saying I care, I only know Felipe Mora either had more time on the ball tonight or he got the call when he got knocked down (if by sleight of body, here and there). After that, Unkel called the usual game that only he sees through whatever contacts he’s wearing…like a goddamn random number generator with a pocket full of reds and yellows, I tell you…

Most and best of all the things about tonight’s game, yes, Roman gladiator guy, I was entertained. Both teams rewarded their fans with two top-shelf goals a piece – more on that later – the game had a lively one-team-giveth-the-other-taketh-away tension, and, typing strictly as a homer, the Timbers played their second solid game in a row. It’s not showing in the standings – hello(!), 11th in the West – and I hope to see the Timbers get all three points next week at LAFC with the desperate fervor of a 10-year-old battling against all the odds and even more doubts that the Tooth Fairy still pays a fiver-per-tooth, but I’m closer to believing the Timbers have a competitive team than I’ve been since that little flutter of hope the Timbers had during Miles Joseph’s short, interim reign. Hell, I’m willing to shout that all the way back to 2021.

To their credit, Portland exceeded the broadly conservative approach I laid out in my scouting report. Even better, they granted my wish for more robust defending over an opening 20-25 minutes that saw them go up 1-0 on top of frustrating the bejesus out of the Crew.

Columbus Crew SC Scouting Report: We Have Seen the Enemy and All I Can Say Is...Shit.

Yes, that is Wilfred Nancy.

Full disclosure, I haven’t spent much time on Columbus Crew SC this season. Didn’t see the point. They’ve been getting results…until recently (but they also got arguably the biggest result) and the roster remains…stacked. At any rate, I have done some scouting and here is my report.

Some Basics

Columbus currently sits at fourth in the Eastern Conference (7th overall, fwiw) on 13 points and a 3-1-4 record. They remain stoutly unbeaten at home (3-0-1) and stubborn on the road (0-1-3; also, the loss at Charlotte FC has been dismissed as, in a word, bullshit) and boast one of the deepest and, currently, healthiest top-to-bottom roster in MLS and, in Wilfred Nancy, they have a head coach that gets the neutrals drooling. One can’t really blame the local fans for being content to the point of cockiness…and yet there are some questions.

They’re winless over the past four league games and arguably dropping points when they shouldn’t e.g., at Charlotte (loss), at a badly-hurting Nashville SC (a draw), and, insofar as you buy them, v DC United (draw). If you dig in a little deeper, you see a fall-off from 2023’s killer attacking pace of 1.97 goals/game; with just 10 goals scored in league play all season, they’re puttering around at 1.25 goals/game and, if you hit the link about contentment above, you’ll see creeping concerns that things ain’t the same without Cucho Hernandez. Then again, most signs point to him returning to the lineup after a wee suspension for some kind of tomfoolery.

The Lineup(s)

Unless I’m mistaken, Nancy has yet to deviate from a 3-4-2-1 formation, even when he rotates the squad dizzy as he did last week at Real Salt Lake. Were I a betting man – which I’m not, on the grounds that me putting money on anything means the opposite will happen – I’d expect Columbus to play the same lineup they did for their March 10 game against Chicago.

Portland Timbers 2-3 Vancouver Whitecaps: We Have to Talk About Evander

A song for the situation...

On the one hand, the final 20 minutes of effort couldn’t rescue the prior 70 minutes of not-good-enough. On the other, it was good to see the Portland Timbers play with some level of professional pride. To float an idea I’ve never really formulated before, maybe every team plays 50% harder after the coach gets fired so they can prove it really was him and not them?

I can list all the not-good-enough from tonight’s game, but I’m leaning against doing it for two reasons: 1) it continued the same wretched trends from the season so far, and 2) change takes time. Hell, it’ll probably take a new coach. I mean, who’s thinking of the Miles Joseph era as anything but the bridge to the team’s real future? Hell, the man doesn’t even bark at the fourth official like a proper head coach. (Is that a 400-level course or more disposition, nurture v nature, and so?)

The game happened as it did – the Timbers defense dropped on the first swing, going down on a back-post goal by the Vancouver Whitecaps’ Ryan Gaul in the 13th minute; then went down one goal further when the ‘Caps broke through their ramshackle press; honestly, the game was probably over at that point – but every lecture starts with a thesis, so here’s mine: Evander lost this game for the Timbers. And not for the first time either.

Again, this is the man brought in to win games for the Timbers.

The crucial moment came when Evander stumbled through Richie Laryea – a player moving away from goal – inside the penalty area. Right before that happened, the Timbers had just pulled back one of the two goals mentioned above. I’ll get to Portland’s first goal down below, but the complete and utter dipshittery (sp?) of committing that foul on a retreating player inside the area and giving up a penalty kick? That is elite stupidity. Fuck it, maybe file this under a karmic punchline to everyone’s complaint about Evander not trying hard enough. At any rate, the Timbers probably ran out of road after the genuinely impressive Ryan Gauld (one man, two goals, one assist) buried the ensuing penalty kick (and for why a 0:47 highlight showing a penalty kick, but not one damn clip about the foul that caused it? Rummage, worms!) and once Vancouver went up 3-1. The game ended 3-2 in Vancouver’s favor and there it is: another game older and deeper in debt.

Portland Timbers 0-1 Monterrey: Why Do Birds Suddenly Appear?

Feelin' it. (With due and necessary innocence.)

The Portland Timbers started yesterday’s Leagues Cup Round of 32 game in a defensive posture so deep and passive that I worried Gio Savarese had them out with specific and deliberate orders to defend first, second, and third, so long as the situation demanded it. When Monterrey commenced to camp in Portland’s half over the first five minutes of the game...well, I’ll speak for myself here, but I was already writing the first couple sentences of this post, nearly all of which centered on how I made peace with an 0-3 loss.

When the final whistle blew, Portland had conceded just one goal – one that, to continue the record from the alternative universe of doom and sadness, followed from a cascade of errors, many from the unlikeliest of suspects (e.g., and in order, Zac McGraw, Diego Chara and Claudio Bravo) – and they came within one late, great chance by Dario Zuparic of sending the game to penalty kicks (see the official highlights, surely). That wasn’t to be, sadly and dammit, because the Portland Timbers lost the game 0-1 to (from what I gather) Mexican titans, Monterrey.

That’s not what the post is about. It’s about how the game we all actually watched started about 14 minutes in.

After surviving those opening five minutes, the Timbers played straight to Monterrey’s end the first time they got on the ball. Franck Boli, in particular, became a channel-running pest: on two occasions between the 10th and 15th minutes, he received the ball and, after flummoxing a defender or two with as many cuts and feints, he fired shots that sailed just wide of Monterrey’s goal. His second shot rolled close enough to the right post for them to decide they couldn’t risk him firing a third, so a couple Monterrey defenders chopped him down before he could fire it. The entire stadium wailed for a foul (rightly so), but none was given (Leagues Cup, man; different set of rules) and Monterrey, now on the ball, launched a counter up their right.

Monterrey’s man – was it Maximiliano Meza or Stefan Medina? – almost reached the halfway line before Diego Chara 1) reclaimed the ball and clattered him clean to Providence Park’s (possibly cancerous) turf, and 2) signaled with the volume of a siren and the brightness of 100 flares fired simultaneously that Portland came to play yesterday, and with a very real amount of belief.

Minnesota United FC 4-1 Portland Timbers: Bye-Bye Scarecrow, Bye-Bye Tin Man

And on and on until you (or the Timbers) die.

Like a car peeling off one tire after the other over 90 slow, aching minutes. As if a car could do a strip-tease before catching fire and careening into literally the nearest ditch.

The Portland Timbers utterly surrendered against Minnesota United FC tonight, and in the finest literary tradition: slowly, then all at once. The game ended 1-4 and, for all we know, started there in the right cosmological universe. All I know is that, once the game took a turn around the 35th minute, it kept driving in the same direction as if no barriers, be they natural or man-made, stood to stop it. Like every left turn in the Dakotas and every bit as God-forsaken.

To make one thing clear from the start, the Timbers never looked like winning this game. Tripping their aimless, collective way to a tie, maybe, but winning it? A team can’t score a goal until it can move the ball in some general direction thereto – a shared activity miles beyond the capacities of this forced experiment of a Timbers line-up. And I’ll pick that apart later...

It was possible to believe in that knees-knockin’ tie until sometime shortly after the 35th minute. After as many minutes of probing what they perceived as Portland’s weaknesses – a lot of it through Bongokuhle Hlongwane and toward Larrys Mabiala - Minnesota started pressing in earnest, throwing numbers forward and putting the Timbers defense under sustained pressure. To echo the popular cliche, Minnesota’s first goal was coming before well Portland’s Diego Chara clipped it into the net at the 43rd minute. Both my brain and heart checked out (so that’s...the Scarecrow and the Tin Man) after Emanuel Reynoso slipped what will go down as one of the more disputed olimpicos you will ever see at the (first half) 49th minute. And, to lay my cards on the table, I am Team Olimpico. The ball was curling in before Aljaz Ivacic punched it into the goal instead of away from it.

That was 0-2 to Portland going into the half and, whatever you were doing (you crazy ding-dong), I gave up by then.

To prove I’m no heartless bastard, yeah, the Timbers clawed back at least one goal. As much as anything else, Franck Boli proved he can score a goal if someone can tee him up right; this goal looked like Boli’s other best, cleanest shot of the season, one that came on the other side, and I don’t think that’s a mistake...and I’ll pick this apart later as well. At any rate, and whether you love it or dismiss it, Portland showed enough fight to bring the game to 1-2 and whispered “I’m not dead yet” loudly enough for the world to hear.

Real Salt Lake 0-0 Portland Timbers: Getting Satisfaction Out of a Snooze

Exaggerated? Absolutely. But...look!

I can’t count the number of times I’ve started a post with some spin on, “I’ll keep this brief,” but I think I have it this time. [NOTE: He does not.]

Real Salt Lake came out swinging strong and, yeah, that got me wondering about where things would go. Near as I can tell, it took literally one bop on the nose – i.e., a sequence where the Timbers methodically worked the ball through RSL’s press (more of a presence thing, than running players down) and capped the sequence with a quality shot on goal by the oft-(over?*) praised Evander – for RSL to gamble less and/or swing for the fences too early and more often.

This game didn’t have game-states so much as it had moments. One team or another would create an opportunity – say, RSL finding space for Andres Gomez on RSL’s right – some of those would lead to actual chances, but neither team ever really got all over the other one. Small wonder the announcers (kicking it old school with Max Bretos and Brian Dunseth) fixated on every time a player hit the post. It happened three times, though not all those chances weren’t created equal.

That wasn’t wholly unreasonable. This was a classic game where the team that scored first had a 75% or better chance of winning it...and here comes the reveal. Woo. The game ended 0-0.

In fairness, plenty of those openings yawned wide enough – e.g., that time in the opening minutes when Gomez opened enough space to for a strip mall with a cut on Claudio Bravo. There was also the header Aljaz Ivacic could do no better than swat away (have to imagine it's in here somewhere), the Jefferson Savarino free-kick that left Ivacic standing and praying at the same time, Dairon Asprilla hitting one of those shots off the post (the best one, for my money) just one minute later, or Justen Glad’s devilish knuckler that Ivacic slapped away like a hot potato dipped in roadkill. It’s less that nothing happened, than not a whole lot and very little of interest did.

It's possible I flagged the wrong weakness for RSL in my distended preview (scroll down). Bluntly, they seemed to give up once their best moments dried up – hitting highly hopeful shots from range, attempting passes that felt like real-time proofs of the perfect being the enemy of the good, slowing down when they should have sped up, etc. Bottom line, they ran out of ideas and vividly. I saw plenty of people slam the announcing team, but they clung to one telling detail, and rightly so: RSL hasn’t scored in 370(+) minutes. You could see why tonight.If I were an RSL fan, I’d be ripping my hair out....oh, wait, I watched the Timbers first fives games of 2023. RSL fans don’t know pain...

FC Cincinnati 2-1 Portland Timbers: That Hurt, but It's Over, Bring It In, Guys

Bad man, tenuous metaphor.

If you haven’t watched Peacemaker (which I'd call both specific and 2/3 recommended), and want to duck any spoilers, now is a great time to skip to the third (sorry!) fourth paragraph.

For those who have, you’ll recall that Peacemaker has this horrible, actual-Klan bigot of a father who raises his two sons on violence. They get along great, no clear sibling rivalry, etc. (stick with me through this stretch), but he still has them fight to, in the white supremacist tradition, “toughen them up” in service of the terrible idea that motivates such assholes. At any rate, one time he sends them into a pit he dug in his front yard (again, these are not deep thinkers) for another fight and he’s nakedly pulling for one brother over the other and, wouldn’t you know it, his favored child catches a punch wrong and dies...

...that’s less a perfect analogy than the latest pop culture reference I’ve read about obviously favoring one child over another and things going sideways.

First and foremost (and unlike the fight in Peacemaker), FC Cincinnati and the Portland Timbers put on a better-than-expected show tonight. They traded somewhere around the same number of blows, fought roughly as hard - though, to my surprise, Cincy out-muscled the Timbers – and deviate too wildly on the numbers. While the Timbers had their share, Cincinnati ultimately found the wider openings, held off something of a grabasstic (two “s’s” in that or...?) rally, and ultimately held on for what I’d call a by and large deserved 2-1 win. And, unlike that horrible bigot of a father, I still love and support both of my sons.

I went into the game more worried about the Timbers, naturally, but I’d argue tonight showed them still progressing. They managed to pace more than one portion of the game – the start of both halves, mainly, and then the end after Cincinnati fully committed to the counter to close out the game. Cincy, meanwhile, took over longer stretches – particularly the 20-minute spell of the first half, when they clawed control of the game back from Portland and pressed and pressed until they broke through (hold that thought), and again after stifling the Timbers’ attempted rally at the start of the second – and all that feels like a good shorthand for the state of both teams. Portland’s improving, but Cincinnati has a capacity to stomp its foot on the game in a way the Timbers do not...

...have a mentioned how hard it is to focus on both sides of the ball yet? Which, as implied, goes against the concept of focusing? So, doing my best on the rest, with an assist from the highlights.

Portland Timbers 1-2 St. Louis CITY FC: A Complicated Affair, with My Compliments to the Villains

Bro. Little help?

At this point in the season, nothing kicks you in the balls/punches you in the tits quite like the rare moments when the Portland Timbers look like a professional soccer team. By my math, that has happened exactly three times during the 2023 season – the last 25+ minutes against Los Angeles FC and, perhaps more tellingly, the first five minutes of the (seriously) home games against Sporting Kansas City – who, thank gods, suck as bad as they do – and, tonight, St. Louis CITY FC, aka, the team that yells at you!!!

Unlike that one, lonely win at SKC, St. Louis hammered on the Timbers’s fingers until they slipped off the cliff’s edge and that’s the how Portland fell to a 1-2 loss at Providence Park tonight. Gods’ honest truth, St. Louis' second goal slighted the Timbers’ honor slightly less than their first. Set pieces have been Portland’s Achilles heel for almost as long as Achilles sulked in his tent, but the fact not one single Timber tracked Jared Stroud’s late run on the equalizer...well, what is that but bad news? And when you suck at set pieces the way the Timbers do, the cost of allowing any other kind of mistake...well, what can that do but grow and grow until it chokes you like kudzu?

Details aside, the singularly most troublesome thing about the Timbers’ season so far is their collective and apparent inability to control a game in any way whatsoever. They can have moments, they can flash some magic here and there (don’t quote me on that), but I can’t remember the last time I felt like the Timbers had a real handle on any game they’ve played.

And yet, if you’re like me, you still hear the siren’s song, i.e., that soothing sense of calm that seeps into your senses when you see a promising 20 minutes last week, or a promising 20 minutes this week. It’s a seductive trance, of course...and I’m not saying that’s a bad thing, especially given the dreary reality of Timbers soccer right now, but, the real story of the 2023 season so far tracks closer to something I tweeted during in my game thread:

“It’s slipping away bit by bit but Portland’s doing all right so far, even if I miss and/or want to see more of the caffeinated [sic] beginning.”

Los Angeles FC 3-2 Portland Timbers: Taking the Good from the Present

The top rock on the left fell off around the 65th.

Just when you’d given up, amirite? Ah, what could have been had the Portland Timbers played the entire game the way they played the final 30 minutes...

One thing I know for sure: I didn’t see Evander’s goal coming until Cristian Paredes’ dummy got the words, “holy shit,” halfway out of my mouth. Everything Portland did to that point rattled around the bad bandwidth of anxious and useless – and to the point that any sane person would have taken inflated odds against them scoring a second. And yet they did, with a goal that mirrored the scramble that teed up Los Angeles FC’s opener. That gave the game a nice sort of symmetry, even if on a see-saw that had only begun to tilt toward balance.

Two big questions hang over the Timbers’ 2-3 loss away to LAFC.

First, did you expect anything but a loss? Just as a thought exercise, put away all the specific complaints from today, forget the...concerning first half: quiet your mind and ask yourself, would you have picked the Timbers team you saw down the stretch in 2022 to go into the tougher half of Los Angeles in the second game of the next season (aka, March) and win that game? Sub-question: what do you think your answer would be if I told you that Dairon Asprilla, Sebastian Blanco, Felipe Mora and (why not?) Yimmi Chara would not be available before the game?

Admit it. You would have thought for, at most, a second before muttering, “yeah, they’re fucked.”

That’s for anyone who needs a pick-me-up after The Half That Shall Not Be Named.

The second question seems bigger to me – and I pose it without having a clear answer.

How much did the triple substitution at the 59th minute change the game? To refresh your memory (and you’re not alone), the Timbers replaced Santiago Moreno, Marvin Loria and Justin Rasmussen with Larrys Mabiala, Cristhian Paredes, and Claudio Bravo, respectively. Some gnashing of teeth flared up in my wee corner of twitter – the grounds was Portland “going defensive,” which isn’t a crazy thought – but the changes made decent sense in context – i.e., Gio traded a a little more beef in defense (aka, Mabiala) for a player whose touch appeared afflicted by nerves (aka, Moreno), a solid shuttler (aka, Paredes) for a stymied soloist (aka, Loria), and he almost unquestionably upgraded the left back position and threw more attacking juice into the mix when he replaced Rasmussen with Bravo.

The First MLS Preview Post of 2023. Probably: Eyeing the Baseline

So bright you gotta wear shades...

The turning of the calendar feels like a good time to start to wrap the head around Major League Soccer’s 2023 season. Before I get started a warning: very little of what comes below will constitute “news” to your more devoted followers of the league. To put that another way, this is a post for people who follow the league like me – e.g., those who can say, “Oh, I’ve heard to that guy” when a good/rising player’s name comes up, but who can’t drop (literally) all the relevant stats.

For the people who drop in for notes on either FC Cincinnati or the Portland Timbers, you’ll find those at the end, and in that order. I wanted to start with the big picture. With that, let’s get those fingers framed and get things into focus.

Thanks to all the baggage and clutter around the 2022 season – there, I’m thinking of a luridly tainted (yet mostly satisfying) 2022 World Cup and the rolling scandals that clouded the Timbers season and cleaned out (most, but not all) of the front office - I want the 2023 MLS season to be both as good and as normal as possible. And, there, I’m optimistic: just having the playoffs feel less rushed and, without a looming World Cup as a distraction, less like an opening act begging a restless crowd to let them reach the end of their set. That should help the 2023 MLS Playoffs feel like the closing event of the domestic soccer calendar all on its own. Now...what else?

The new [Apple]+ TV deal will be in place, for one. I’ve seen some gripes about the cost – and, now that I no longer have SlingTV, I’m feeling the slings ‘n’ arrows of the exclusivity (e.g., my access to random soccer leagues has cratered) – and I fully sympathize with anyone who either can’t or won’t find a path to squeezing that into his/her/their personal budget. Speaking solely for myself, I calculate the real cost of things by breaking things down into individual units. What I mean by that is, even at the highest subscription rate - $99 for a full year – you’re looking at $3.30 per game to watch every game for any given team and, unless they’re blowing smoke up my ass or it’s getting lost in the other smoke, you get to watch it on your time, however and often you want. And if you’re like me and like to follow two teams, that cuts your per-game cost in half. Bottom line, the way you value MLS’s new TV deal tracks almost perfectly with the number of games you want to watch.

That’s to say, I like that and it makes me happy. Now, for some things I don’t like.