Monday, October 5, 2020

Major League Soccer 2020: Acts of Penance on the Back 8

Once the Magical World of Major League Soccer ended and all the teams returned to the far Less Magical World of COVID, I pretty much checked out of everything related to MLS except the feats and failures of the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati. I even dialed back on FC Cincy a couple weeks ago, and with regrets, because what’s more compelling than an eternal mystery? (In this case, how a collection of professional athletes can so consistently fail to do anything well for that long.)

With just eight games left in Fucking 2020 for nearly every team in MLS (cue faint coughing from Colorado), the lack of context for the results I’m seeing - e.g., San Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Los Angeles Galaxy, a couple nights ago, in the conservatory, with gods know what for a murder weapon - prompts that twitch I get in my right eyebrow when I feel too disconnected from what’s going on…

…so I’ve decided to review the results and compile them in one place, perhaps as some kind of monastic-style penance, to get myself re-centered (breath). The grander, more deluded effort is to once again chase the damned white whale of my amateur pundit existence - e.g., a way that lets me keep current on comings and goings of this weird little league, but without it consuming every minute of my free time. I think I have one, but I’ve thought that literally every time I’ve attempted the same thing over the whole goddamn life of my homely, yet much-beloved little league. Little league…funny...

I’ll describe what I have in mind at the end of this post. For now, let's get caught up! And let’s do this best teams to worst, i.e., from the teams likely to do something interesting to those ones who rarely do anything you want to look at. TO BE CLEAR, the ONLY thing I’m looking at below are the top-liniest of top-line numbers: results, goal-differential, and a loose read on the relative strength of the opposition that each team has faced since the Magical World of Major League Soccer (MWoMLS) sprinkled the last of its pixie dust on this wretched motherfucker of a year. With that, here goes…and expect the odd factual error and I'll apologize for and/or retract dumb opinions as needed.

Columbus Crew SC: 9-2-4, 31 pts., +15 goal-differential (GD), goals for (GF), 25, post-MLS Is Back Record (“post-MIB”), 5-2-3
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v CHI, v PHI, v CIN, v NSH, v MIN
Losses: @ NYC, @ TFC
Draws: @CIN, @CHI, @FCD
Last 10: WLDWWDWWLD
Notes
What stands out here is the divide between home and road records; I’m not seeing the line drawn that cleanly anywhere else below, and maybe that’s the key tell with Columbus. They’re beating…loosely credible teams at home (Philly, mostly), but even patsies (and Dallas) can hold them when they travel. That said, the losses are reasonable and they do have the best records, so…

Toronto FC: 9-2-4, 31 pts., +10 GD, GF 26, post-MIB: 7-2-1
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v VAN, v VAN, @ MTL, @MTL, @NYC, v CLB, v PHI
Losses: v MTL, @ VAN
Draws: @ DC
Last 10: WWWLLWDWWW
Notes
They built their post-MIB record by beating up their struggling Canadian rivals, but those last three wins look pretty damn credible, coming as they did against top 5 Eastern Conference teams.

Orlando City SC: 8-2-5, 29 pts., +12 GD, GF 28, post-MIB: 6-1-3
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v NSH, @ ATL, v MIA, v CHI, @ SKC, v RBNY
Losses: @ MIA
Draws: @ NSH, v ATL, @ FCD
Last 10: LWWDDWWWDW
Notes
High as Orlando are flying, the way just about all the opposition leans somewhere between middling and suspect raises questions about how well Orlando will handle MLS’s stronger teams.

Philadelphia Union: 8-3-4, 28 pts, +12 GD, GF 25, post-MIB: 6-2-2
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v RBNY, v DC, @ RBNY, v NE, @ MTL, v MIA
Losses: @ CLB, @ TFC
Draws: @ NE, @ CIN
Last 10: DWWLWWWDWL
Notes
Another team with hints of traveling weakness, though that argument attaches more strongly to the draws (weak teams) than the two losses. The thing to watch for me, is how they play stronger teams at home. If Philly clears that bar, the conversation changes.

Seattle Sounders: 8-3-3, 27 pts., +19 GD, GF 32, post-MIB: 6-2-1
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ POR, v LAF, v SJ, v LAF, @ LAG, v VAN
Losses: v POR, @ POR
Draws: @ RSL
Last 10: WWWDLWWLWW
Notes
First of all, bastards, but it’s good to see that the Timbers can still punch them in the nose, even with one Blanco tied behind their backs. There’s not much else for weakness showing, not least because they’re playing and managing one of MLS’s tougher schedules (if on paper in a couple cases).

Portland Timbers: 7-4-3, 24 pts., +3 GD, 27 GF, post-MIB: 4-3-2
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ SEA, @ SJ, v SEA, @ VAN (sorta)
Losses: v SEA, v LAG, @LAF
Draws: v RSL, @ SJ
Last 10: DLDLWLDWWW
Notes
This site is lousy with my observations on Portland, so I’ll sum it up like so: they can beat just about anyone, and the road doesn’t look like an issue. Going the other way, they have the thinnest goal-differential of all the teams above and the next several below them. The defense needs to stay healthy and the attack just lively enough, and that doesn't come off every week.

Sporting Kansas City: 7-5-2, 23 pts., +5 GD, 26 GF, post-MIB: 3-4-2
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ MIN, v MIN, @ HOU
Losses: v HOU, @ HOU, v FCD, v ORL
Draws: @ COL, v FCD
Last 10: WWLDDLWLLW
Notes
This is one of the teams that inspired this little piece of madness: I remembered they started strong on MWoMLS, and then faded (heard rumors of Ike Opara going down), but one particular wrinkle in their competition makes a case for them: all the teams they play most often are below them in the standings. So, what happens when SKC plays Seattle or Portland? Or even LAFC or the Galaxy? How do these tiers sort in a one-off?

New York City FC, 7-6-2, 23 pts., +5 GD, 17 GF, post-MIB: 6-2-2
Results, post- MIB
Wins: v CLB, v CHI, @ NE, v CIN, v CIN, @ MIA
Draws: @ DC, @ NE
Losses: @ RBNY, v TFC
Last 10: LWWWDWDLWW
Notes
The Columbus win impresses, but only as much as loss to the Red Bulls baffles. The most impressive thing after that is holding serve against New England. Their biggest issue is that they’re not scoring enough; cast your eyes above, then cast your eyes below, and you’ll see a trend.

Minnesota United FC: 6-5-4, 22 pts., +5 GD, 26 GF, post-MIB: 3-5-2
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v RSL, v FCD, v CIN
Losses: v SKC, @ FCD, @ HOU, @SKC, @ CLB
Draws: @ HOU, v RSL
Last 10: LLLWWLDLDW
Notes
Their wins are necessary (and decent), their losses reasonably explicable (again, road bias), and both draws are fine: it’s the general bulge of losses in the middle of their recent record that casts a cloud over Minnesota’s future.

New England Revolution: 5-3-7, 22 pts., +3 GD, 15 GF, post-MIB: 4-4-2
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ DC, @ CHI, v MTL, @ DC
Losses: v NYC, @ PHI
Draws: v PHI, v RBNY, v NYC, v NSH
Last 10: DWDLWLDWWD
Notes
The Revs join a collection of Eastern Conference teams - with NYC and Nashville - who are grinding out points on defense, and disproportionately on defense. The encouraging thing is that they can pillage points on the road against, plus holding steady in a group with a lot of NYCFC and Philly in it. “Marginally competitive” kicked in somewhere above - maybe between Portland and SKC, or SKC and NYCFC - but the Revs are on the wrong side of it until they can goose their scoring.

Los Angeles FC: 6-6-3, 21 pts., +5 GD, 35 GF, post-MIB: 4-6-0
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v SJ, v POR, v VAN, @ RSL
Losses: v LAG, @ SEA, @ LAG, @RSL, @ SEA, v SJ
Draws: None
Last 10: LLWLLWLWLW
Notes
To stick with a theme, LAFC are on the wrong side of erratic. They can wake up and positively hammer opposing teams, but they sure as hell don't do it like they used to. Between Seattle and Portland and the Galaxy having their number, they’re also playing in one of MLS’s toughest regional competitions. I’d also keep an eye on that road form…

FC Dallas: 5-3-6, 21 pts., +6 GD, 21 GF, post-MIB: 4-3-5
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v MIN, v HOU, v COL, @ SKC
Losses: v NSH, @ MIN, @ ATL
Draws: v NSH, @ HOU, @ SKC, v ORL, v CLB
Last 10: DWDLWWWLDD
Notes
One of two teams in MLS with nearly all their regular season after MWoMLS (hello, Nashville!), and, in true Dallas form, that’s good enough for the playoffs, but not a whole lot more. In their defense, that’s a tough-ish schedule, and they’re in a plausible place for climbing higher in the Western table if anyone above them slips.

Red Bulls New York: 6-7-2, 20 pts., -1 GD, 18 GF, post-MIB: 4-5-1
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v NYC, @ DC, @ MIA, v MTL
Losses: @ PHI, v DC, v PHI, v CIN, @ ORL
Draws: @ NE
Last 10: WLDLLWLWWL
Notes
If you watch FC Cincy, as I do, you can be forgiven for thinking the Red Bulls are hot, incompetent garbage. And yet recent trends look all right - i.e., three of their four wins happened recently, and they beat two weak teams handily - but only four of these six games come against competitive teams.

Colorado Rapids: 5-4-4, 19 pts., +5 GD, 25 GF, post-MIB: 3-2-3
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ RSL, @ LAG, v SJ
Losses: v RSL, @ FCD
Draws: v SKC, @ SJ, v HOU
Last 10: LDLDDDWLWW
Notes
Those recent wins stand WAY the fuck out - two road wins, two blowouts (if without a perfect overlap) - because “what have you done for me lately” remains a thing. They’re still in the playoff mix - just three points behind Minnesota, after all - but it’s a shame they had to postpone the Portland game, because that could have been hella clarifying.

Real Salt Lake: 4-6-6, 18 pts., -6 GD, 20 GF, post-MIB: 3-4-3
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ COL, v LAF, v LAG
Losses: @ MIN, v COL, v VAN, v LAF
Draws: @ POR, v SEA, @ MIN
Last 10: LWDDLWLLWD
Notes
RSL remains the scrappiest team in MLS, for all the good it does them (e.g., the 8th and final playoff team in the Weird West), but they’re the rare team that can beat anyone, but also throw away points at home against Vancouver.

Atlanta United FC: 5-8-2, 17 pts., -2 GD, 17 GF, post-MIB: 3-5-2
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v NSH, v FCD, @ DC
Losses: v ORL, @ MIA, @ NSH, v MIA, @ CHI
Draws: v MIA, @ ORL
Last 10: WLDDLLWLW
Notes
The short version: they’ve given Miami seven of their eleven points for 2020. That’s bad, and they’re bad. For any Atlanta fans wanting to field better, beating Dallas at home and thrashing DC on the road at least gives hope they’ll turn things around.

Montreal Impact: 5-8-2, 17 pts., -7 GD, 22 GF, post-MIB: 3-6-1
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v VAN, @ TFC, @ VAN
Losses: v TFC, v TFC, @ VAN, v PHI, @ NE, @ RBNY
Draws: v CHI
Last 10: WLWLWLLLLD
Notes
Playing TFC three times almost certainly hurt them (if three points less than you’d think), but it’s those last five games that should really catch your eye, if only because they gave up 14 goals over just four of them. It’ll take a miracle for this to be even close to their year.

Nashville SC: 4-5-5, 17 pts., -3 GD, 11 GF, post-MIB: 4-3-5
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ FCD, v MIA, v ATL, v DC
Losses: @ ATL, @ ORL, @ CLB
Draws: @ FCD, v ORL, @ MIA, v HOU, @ NE
Last 10: LLWDDWLWDD
Notes
The fact that Nashville has held onto the low-end of steady, and against some several solid teams (Dallas twice, Orlando twice, Columbus), is the strongest rebuke I can come up with for Cincinnati’s ongoing roster struggles. There’s also no question their defense (11 goals for, cough, cough) is the only thing between them and the abyss.

San Jose Earthquakes: 4-6-5, 17 pts., -19 GD, 21 GF, post-MIB: 2-5-3
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ LAF, v LAG
Losses: @ LAG, @ LAF, @ SEA, v POR, @ COL
Draws: v COL, v LAG, v POR
Last 10: LLDLDDLLWW
Notes
While they have a positively horrific goal-differential, a lot of that happened over four very, very bad games against the West’s better teams - to the tune of 23 goals allowed between them. And that makes their two recent, consecutive wins - one of them against one of the teams that savaged them (LAFC) - look a little different. I don’t think anyone looks at San Jose as a contender, but they may reprise their semi-annual trick of becoming a total pain in the ass.

Houston Dynamo: 3-5-7, 16 pts., -4 GD, 22 GF, post-MIB: 3-3-4
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ SKC, v MIN, v SKC
Losses: @ FCD, @ CHI, v SKC
Draws: v FCD, @ COL, v MIN, @ NSH
Last 10: DWWWDLDLDL
Notes
First question, God in heaven, what does it take to be worse than San Jose? Houston was one of the first post-MIB sweethearts due to the three straights above, but it’s been a three-points-over-six-games shit-show since then. And against the same teams. There was always the whiff a rebuild about the Tab Ramos era…

Chicago Fire FC: 4-7-4, 16 pts, -4 GD, 20 GF, post-MIB: 3-4-3
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v CIN, v HOU, v ATL
Losses: @ CLB, @ NYC, v NE, @ ORL
Draws: @ CIN, v CLB, @ MTL
Last 10: LWLDLDLWWD
Notes
Their last three results bear noting - e.g., a big win over Houston, a good win over Atlanta and a draw away to Montreal - but their road will top out at somewhere in the playoffs. Assuming they get there, which is far from a safe assumption.

Vancouver Whitecaps: 5-10-0, 15 pts., -16 GD, 18 GF, post-MIB: 3-7-0
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v TFC, v MTL, @ RSL
Losses: @ TFC, @ TFC, @ MTL, v MTL, @ LAF, v POR, @ SEA
Draws: None
Last 10: LLLWLWWLLL
Notes
They pulsed to life briefly in the middle of their last 10 games, but Vancouver suffered even more than San Jose from playing against tough opposition - as in, take Montreal out of the picture and it’s a murderers’ row. Having looked at the rest of their schedule, I can say with very real confidence that the ‘Caps have no goddamn chance for 2020.

Los Angeles Galaxy: 4-7-3, 15 pts., -6 GD, 18 GF, post-MIB: 4-4-1
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ LAF, v SJ, @ POR, v LAF
Losses: v COL, @ RSL, v SEA, @ SJ
Draws: @ SJ
Last 10: DWWWWDLLLL
Notes
The other post-MIB darling has crashed down to earth rather violently aver their past five games and with startling symmetry when compared to the glory days that made them post-MIB darlings. They also have a tough road ahead…and why am I only looking at that now that I’m looking up from the bottom of the ladder?

FC Cincinnati: 3-8-4, 13 pts., 3-8-4, -15 GD, 8 GF, post-MIB: 1-5-4
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ RBNY
Losses: @ CHI, @ CLB, @ NYC, @ NYC, @ MIN
Draws: v DC, v CLB, v CHI, v PHI
Last 10: DLDDLLWDLL
Notes
To give FC Cincy fans the break they need, sure, maybe they can only beat the Red Bulls (and Atlanta), they got screwed harder than most by 2020: when your attack straight-up sucks and literally half of your last 10 games have come against league-best defenses, this is how things will play out. Also, it does not get better. This year will be bad, but the next has…some kind of shot (maybe?).

Inter Miami CF: 3-10-2, 11 pts., -11 GD, 14 GF, post-MIB: 3-5-2
Results, post-MIB
Wins: v ORL, v ATL, @ ATL
Losses: @ NSH, @ ORL, v RBNY, @ PHI, v NYC
Draws: @ ATL, v NSH
Last 10: WLDDWLWLLL
Notes
First, they had to find their feet. After that, they had to figure out how to play together. That process has gone better for them than it has for Cincy lately (also, sorry to keep using them as a point of reference for awful, Cincy fans!), but there’s no fucking way it’s going to be enough for 2020. Sadly, having looked at the rest of their schedule, I’m confident they’ll finish higher than FC Cincy when all’s said and done.

D.C. United: 2-8-5, 11 pts., -13 GD, 11 GF, post-MIB: 1-6-3
Results, post-MIB
Wins: @ RBNY
Losses: v NE, @ PHI, v RBNY, @ NSH, v NE, v ATL
Draws: @ CIN, v NYC, v TFC
Last 10: DLLWDLDLLL
Notes
Without regard or reference to anything else, how the bleeding hell does Ben Olsen still have a job? That’s it. I mean, this team has been bad for so fucking long.

Right, now that I’ve re-established a baseline for where all the teams in MLS are, here’s the plan: I’ll continue to watch both Portland and Cincinnati closely, but I’ll only actively write about the Timbers. As for the rest of the content, it’ll become a process of making sense of the anomalies - e.g., the results that seem to come out of the blue. While that will involve some amount of research and cross-referencing, and it’ll certainly involve giving 15 minutes of my time to reviewing video on each of those five weird results. It will emphatically not involve updating a results table, giving this monstrosity continued life, or any of the other varied forms of masochism I’ve put myself through with unsavory delight over the past couple decades.

The idea is to keep in touch with MLS, but not obsessive-compulsively. As I perhaps have. Until the next post. Which will probably come….next Monday. The working title is, "Yes, but Does It Track?"

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