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| Wears one down a bit... |
Personally, I can spin the Portland Timbers' 1-1 draw on the road to the loath’d Seattle Sounders several ways. A sampling:
The Optimist: The Timbers paced the first 60 minutes and could have scored several times over the next 20 minutes. The last 15 minutes never happened, there were no last 15 minutes.
The Pessimist: When your bend-don’t-break defense keeps breaking, you no longer have a bend-don’t-break defense. (Hold this thought, because it’s a biggie.)
The Fatalist: The Timbers can score on any team and pace large portions of any game; they also reliably give up goals: this is the unbendable nature of this timeline.
The Psychologist/Gambler: Everyone makes the playoffs and, with Portland and Seattle at No. 1 and No. 2 in the Western Conference and wholly manageable regular season schedules ahead of them* and only Sporting Kansas City as immediate competition (e.g., seven points separate both teams from Los Angeles FC (today)), there’s a decent chance that the Timbers and Sounders won’t meet until the Conference semis and Portland has a 2-1-1 edge in the series for 2020 - i.e., they grabbed four of those seven points in the series in Seattle - so they’re deep enough in Seattle’s head to hold the edge in that eventual match-up.
(* Portland’s remaining schedule: v. LA Galaxy, v. Vancouver, v. Colorado (maybe), @ LAFC;
Seattle’s remaining schedule: @ Vancouver, @ Colorado (maybe), @ LA Galaxy, v. San Jose)
All those arguments strike me as reasonable, for what it’s worth, because, per the fatalist take (aka, my jam), this is the team that Timbers fans have in front of them right now. What causes those late, fatal defensive mistakes? Beats the hell out of me. Also worth mentioning, the Timbers have only done the “draw-that-feels-like-a-loss” thing four times in 19 games this season. On the one hand, yes, that is just north of something happening 20% of the time. On the other hand, and prior to the recent shitty, 0-1-2 stretch, Portland won five straight games. Most of those happened at "home" (see the Vancouver Whitecaps), but the real blowouts - e.g., the 6-1 dismantling of San Jose and the 6-3 fun-fest against the Galaxy - happened on the road. Like tonight’s draw against a team that is, by common consent, the best in the Western Conference…except the Timbers for some damn reason, but, when the only real measure is who lifts the trophy in the end, who fucking cares about the chatter?
In the grand scheme, it goes without saying that this has been a weird year for everyone, and that there’s a lot going on, but at least one notable constant lurks in the above. After the New England Revolution - who have 20 (fucking) points during 2020 - the Timbers have MLS’s second highest total for road points earned in Freaky 2020. Moreover, and as I’ve argued in the past, the Timbers have played what…I think most people would agree is a tough schedule in 2020 league terms - e.g., not just the Sounders, but both LA teams (yeah, yeah, the Galaxy have sucked, but on paper), plus an eternally scrappy, if wildly uneven Real Salt Lake team that gives them a crab-infested towel’s worth of fits, but I digress…
To finally arrive at the larger argument, sure, the Timbers have dropped stupid points - around about eight points total, in fact - and yet, even for all those points dropped and every stupid result, they remain perched at the top of the Western Conference, only losing out on first place courtesy of a smaller goal differential and, tonight, the kind of late, maddening lapse that has Timbers fans doubting their future happiness and/or distraction from the world of shit that never seems to stop raining down on us, and may it end soon, no, sooner...
Right, after all that contextual preamble, let’s dig into the game itself. That’s where The Optimist has it right for my money: Portland looked great for 80 minutes, which leaves the distribution of when the breakdown happened as the only thing to damn. While the box score whispers a different story, the number to key on is shots on goal - e.g., it’s just the one Will “Hasn’t Scored in 2020” Bruin poked home within the first contemplation/inhale of the final whistle - so, for all their possession and duels won, the Sounders pissed away a ton of time and effort on, yet another number, crosses. All the same, Seattle created the most chaos with its crosses…and that’s even if most of those crosses ended in wild shanks from distance - e.g., the kind of crap dismissed when the MLS interns posted the stand-alone highlights for the game.
Because they’re among the main competition on the road between here (today) and there (MLS-COVID-Dairy-Bacon-Princess-2020 Cup), I want to linger on the Sounders for a bit. First things first, Nicolas Lodeiro will not always play such a flat game. Second, sure, Bruin scored the equalizer, but his high-water mark around that was an open-field check that, in the semi-pointless stages of the first half, somehow turned into a foul by Eryk Williamson. The more notable thing in the performance was the success the Timbers had in keeping Jordan Morris in check because, whatever you personally think of him, the man’s having a season. How Timbers did that - though, to posit a theory, they did it by being generally (if with one glaring exception) organized in defense - matters less than the fact that they did that.
Switching back to the Timbers, I was a little surprised to see how few shots they generated - just eight shots total, four of them on target - because they seemed to unbalance Seattle’s defense with comforting regularity. I dropped a single word in my notes on the game - “efficiency” was the word - on the belief I’d remember what it meant. And I was right: the one attribute that makes the Timbers so hard to manage is how relentlessly they look for and, by way of the right runs, offer up the forward pass in transition. Examples abound, but the ludicrously obvious one-touch pass that Diego Valeri played to Jorge Villafana (more later) for the Timbers’ only goal on the night serves up a perfect example of how the whole trust (they’ll make the run)/reward (you made the run! here’s the ball!) that makes the Timbers counter work - and I mean that generally.
With that, I’m back to the fatalist frame: Portland can put a team under pressure in the blink of an eye, but they can also give up a goal out of the blue. It’s working for now, but the real question is, how do you solve for that equation? Also, can you - before 2020’s up?
That’s the big picture for this one. Let’s wrap it up with some stray notes…
- I started a list but everyone looked amazing in the first half, winning every ball, making the sharper passes, etc. It was how well every Portland player stepped to the ball that really stood out. They didn’t sit back either, especially in the first half, but went toe-to-toe. When I tweeted something about a “soothing” half, that’s where I was going.
- Valeri was straight-up amazing out there. The speed in his legs might have slipped out of his legs, but he played with a kind of 360-awareness that’s still rare in MLS. There was this one “turn” late in the game, something subtle as taking a half-step from the wing to inside, but the defender misread it badly enough to open up the entire Seattle back-line. You can’t teach that, man…
- Jorge Villafana is having a career goddamn season! The tertiary assist he made to set up the Timbers' goal aside, he wrecked all kinds of havoc up Seattle’s right tonight, much as he has all season…amazing…
- Last note: I didn’t give enough weight to how the Timbers slowly ceded ground over the course of the game - erosion springs to mind (which is why I dropped it into the title) - and, if there’s anything I don’t know what to do about, that’s it. On the one hand, I know a team has to have one hell of an efficient press to make that work for a full 90 minutes - and, no, I don’t think the Timbers have that. And so, a team defending a 1-0 lead will drop deep to defend that lead, much as Portland did - whether by plan or pressure - for the final 35 minutes(?) of this game. It ended the way it did, and that raises questions for the long haul and/or playoff picture where the slips cost a team fatally.
Right. That’s it for this one. Sorry for any hanging thoughts, but that’s mostly what I’ve got right now.
The Optimist: The Timbers paced the first 60 minutes and could have scored several times over the next 20 minutes. The last 15 minutes never happened, there were no last 15 minutes.
The Pessimist: When your bend-don’t-break defense keeps breaking, you no longer have a bend-don’t-break defense. (Hold this thought, because it’s a biggie.)
The Fatalist: The Timbers can score on any team and pace large portions of any game; they also reliably give up goals: this is the unbendable nature of this timeline.
The Psychologist/Gambler: Everyone makes the playoffs and, with Portland and Seattle at No. 1 and No. 2 in the Western Conference and wholly manageable regular season schedules ahead of them* and only Sporting Kansas City as immediate competition (e.g., seven points separate both teams from Los Angeles FC (today)), there’s a decent chance that the Timbers and Sounders won’t meet until the Conference semis and Portland has a 2-1-1 edge in the series for 2020 - i.e., they grabbed four of those seven points in the series in Seattle - so they’re deep enough in Seattle’s head to hold the edge in that eventual match-up.
(* Portland’s remaining schedule: v. LA Galaxy, v. Vancouver, v. Colorado (maybe), @ LAFC;
Seattle’s remaining schedule: @ Vancouver, @ Colorado (maybe), @ LA Galaxy, v. San Jose)
All those arguments strike me as reasonable, for what it’s worth, because, per the fatalist take (aka, my jam), this is the team that Timbers fans have in front of them right now. What causes those late, fatal defensive mistakes? Beats the hell out of me. Also worth mentioning, the Timbers have only done the “draw-that-feels-like-a-loss” thing four times in 19 games this season. On the one hand, yes, that is just north of something happening 20% of the time. On the other hand, and prior to the recent shitty, 0-1-2 stretch, Portland won five straight games. Most of those happened at "home" (see the Vancouver Whitecaps), but the real blowouts - e.g., the 6-1 dismantling of San Jose and the 6-3 fun-fest against the Galaxy - happened on the road. Like tonight’s draw against a team that is, by common consent, the best in the Western Conference…except the Timbers for some damn reason, but, when the only real measure is who lifts the trophy in the end, who fucking cares about the chatter?
In the grand scheme, it goes without saying that this has been a weird year for everyone, and that there’s a lot going on, but at least one notable constant lurks in the above. After the New England Revolution - who have 20 (fucking) points during 2020 - the Timbers have MLS’s second highest total for road points earned in Freaky 2020. Moreover, and as I’ve argued in the past, the Timbers have played what…I think most people would agree is a tough schedule in 2020 league terms - e.g., not just the Sounders, but both LA teams (yeah, yeah, the Galaxy have sucked, but on paper), plus an eternally scrappy, if wildly uneven Real Salt Lake team that gives them a crab-infested towel’s worth of fits, but I digress…
To finally arrive at the larger argument, sure, the Timbers have dropped stupid points - around about eight points total, in fact - and yet, even for all those points dropped and every stupid result, they remain perched at the top of the Western Conference, only losing out on first place courtesy of a smaller goal differential and, tonight, the kind of late, maddening lapse that has Timbers fans doubting their future happiness and/or distraction from the world of shit that never seems to stop raining down on us, and may it end soon, no, sooner...
Right, after all that contextual preamble, let’s dig into the game itself. That’s where The Optimist has it right for my money: Portland looked great for 80 minutes, which leaves the distribution of when the breakdown happened as the only thing to damn. While the box score whispers a different story, the number to key on is shots on goal - e.g., it’s just the one Will “Hasn’t Scored in 2020” Bruin poked home within the first contemplation/inhale of the final whistle - so, for all their possession and duels won, the Sounders pissed away a ton of time and effort on, yet another number, crosses. All the same, Seattle created the most chaos with its crosses…and that’s even if most of those crosses ended in wild shanks from distance - e.g., the kind of crap dismissed when the MLS interns posted the stand-alone highlights for the game.
Because they’re among the main competition on the road between here (today) and there (MLS-COVID-Dairy-Bacon-Princess-2020 Cup), I want to linger on the Sounders for a bit. First things first, Nicolas Lodeiro will not always play such a flat game. Second, sure, Bruin scored the equalizer, but his high-water mark around that was an open-field check that, in the semi-pointless stages of the first half, somehow turned into a foul by Eryk Williamson. The more notable thing in the performance was the success the Timbers had in keeping Jordan Morris in check because, whatever you personally think of him, the man’s having a season. How Timbers did that - though, to posit a theory, they did it by being generally (if with one glaring exception) organized in defense - matters less than the fact that they did that.
Switching back to the Timbers, I was a little surprised to see how few shots they generated - just eight shots total, four of them on target - because they seemed to unbalance Seattle’s defense with comforting regularity. I dropped a single word in my notes on the game - “efficiency” was the word - on the belief I’d remember what it meant. And I was right: the one attribute that makes the Timbers so hard to manage is how relentlessly they look for and, by way of the right runs, offer up the forward pass in transition. Examples abound, but the ludicrously obvious one-touch pass that Diego Valeri played to Jorge Villafana (more later) for the Timbers’ only goal on the night serves up a perfect example of how the whole trust (they’ll make the run)/reward (you made the run! here’s the ball!) that makes the Timbers counter work - and I mean that generally.
With that, I’m back to the fatalist frame: Portland can put a team under pressure in the blink of an eye, but they can also give up a goal out of the blue. It’s working for now, but the real question is, how do you solve for that equation? Also, can you - before 2020’s up?
That’s the big picture for this one. Let’s wrap it up with some stray notes…
- I started a list but everyone looked amazing in the first half, winning every ball, making the sharper passes, etc. It was how well every Portland player stepped to the ball that really stood out. They didn’t sit back either, especially in the first half, but went toe-to-toe. When I tweeted something about a “soothing” half, that’s where I was going.
- Valeri was straight-up amazing out there. The speed in his legs might have slipped out of his legs, but he played with a kind of 360-awareness that’s still rare in MLS. There was this one “turn” late in the game, something subtle as taking a half-step from the wing to inside, but the defender misread it badly enough to open up the entire Seattle back-line. You can’t teach that, man…
- Jorge Villafana is having a career goddamn season! The tertiary assist he made to set up the Timbers' goal aside, he wrecked all kinds of havoc up Seattle’s right tonight, much as he has all season…amazing…
- Last note: I didn’t give enough weight to how the Timbers slowly ceded ground over the course of the game - erosion springs to mind (which is why I dropped it into the title) - and, if there’s anything I don’t know what to do about, that’s it. On the one hand, I know a team has to have one hell of an efficient press to make that work for a full 90 minutes - and, no, I don’t think the Timbers have that. And so, a team defending a 1-0 lead will drop deep to defend that lead, much as Portland did - whether by plan or pressure - for the final 35 minutes(?) of this game. It ended the way it did, and that raises questions for the long haul and/or playoff picture where the slips cost a team fatally.
Right. That’s it for this one. Sorry for any hanging thoughts, but that’s mostly what I’ve got right now.
I think you got the game state of our Timbers just right. It's full of both "blink of an eye" and "out of the blue" moments every match.
ReplyDeleteFlores' goal was fun to dissect in replay. Great cross by Villafana to Mora. Then we watched as Mora briefly held it up, looked around for help and saw Yimmi and some other guy named Flores on the right and passed off to Yimmi. Yimmi takes a nice quick shot as Flores stops, realizing that Mora has gone to the familiar compadre and he's extraneous to the action. Yimmi's shot is parried away and thankfully Flores didn't mope in disappointment. He sprints up and takes a shot that nutmegs a defender and juust gets past the keeper for the goal. Soccer's a funny old game.