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| Because where you start matters... |
With all the hot preseason action on the calendar for today, I almost held this post till tomorrow. More games = more data, even barebones results, but, then I remembered, 1) we’re currently in the “pre” phase of preseason, something that makes every result more suspect, plus 2) there’s U.S. Men’s Olympic Qualifying tomorrow - and at a time I can actually absorb it (e.g., it’s not during working hours). Speaking of, I caught about 30 disjointed minutes’ worth of the U.S. Yout’ win over Costa Rica, but, lacking anything approaching expert analysis, I’ll bury my loose thoughts on that at the bottom post. They're pissy, in case that entices anyone.
In fact, this entire post will be half-reversed in that, rather than start with news/commentary/bullshit on the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati, I’ll interpoloate that among the league-wide stuff. The thinking there is that whatever either team has (Cincinnati) or hasn’t (Portland) done recently happens in the context of what every other team in Major League Soccer does, especially within their respective conferences. (Related: anyone know when the full schedule comes out? Any word on whether the 2021 regular season will be “regular”?)
First things first, the preseason results continue to roll in [Ed. - I’ll update this section tomorrow in the event anything interesting happens today.], so I thought I’d flag any eye-catching results as I go. The pickins remain slim and some apparent points of interest - e.g., the Colorado Rapids’ so-far perfect start to the season - deserve ignoring - e.g., both of the Rapids’ wins came in two 45-minute scrimmages, so moving on. Yes, it’s all very contingent, but, newbies Austin FC logged an impressive result against OKC Energy - a USL 1 team, obviously, but the 4-1 score makes for a good debut by an expansion side. Atlanta United FC, meanwhile, keeps landing results that make their ominous-on-paper handicapping hold up.
[UPDATE: MLS had a busy March 20, with (at least) seven pre-game matches taking place. As always, keep the usual caveats about preseason in mind (e.g., did both teams start a full squad, and so on) as you consider the following: the Rapids remain perfect in preseason with a slim win over Sporting Kansas City; going the other way, the Philadephia Union remains completely imperfect after going down 0-1 against Chicago Fire FC - who also remain perfect for preseason. (NOTE: The Rapids wrap up gives you Colorado's line-up, at least, while you get jack and shit from Chicago's round-up.) Meanwhile, (clap, clap, clap) deep in the heart of Texas, FC Dallas becme the second MLS team to kick the crap out of OKC Energy, with Ricardo Pepi scoring two in their 4-0 win, while the Houston Dynamo played Austin Bold, only no one cared to post that score. The Los Angeles Galaxy couldn't get better than a 1-1 draw against San Diego Loyal and, finally, in a result that FC Cincinnati fans should mind, despite the pain of it, Nashville SC beat Louisville City all up and down (i.e., they rolled 4-0), which makes for a stinky smell-test against Cincy's earlier 0-3 loss the same team.
Finally, my Portland Timbers came out 3-1 winners against the USL's Phoenix Rising (ya ain't risin' yet, MFs!). It was good to see Tega Ikoba score one, even if I don't know who he is (ah, he's an academy kid, now on T2), while Diego Valeri kept rolling from a frankly inspiring 2020 with a goal and an assist. They've got (low-angle) highlights of all the goals (except Phoenix's) in the link above, so drink it on up. My only real thought on the result and Portland's preseason generally, they need all the positive energy they can get when they roll into CD Marathon's digs in the CCL, so keep the Ws coming...please.]
Only one more result caught my eye- New York City FC’s 3-2 win over Orlando City SC - and partially because it provides a great segue to kicking around where all the teams in MLS look to be at the moment and in the only way that really matters to me - vis-à-vis FC Cincy and Portland. I’m basing…oh, everything on Matt Doyle’s Eastern Conference and Western Conference roster-build updates. The point there is not to take everything he writes gospel (I mean, why would you?), but to take the offer of some information over no information. And I’m not going to fine-tooth the stuff in any case, and on the grounds that no one really knows anything until the results make them so. With that, let’s start with points of interest in MLS’s Eastern Conference and to FC Cincinnati.
Eastern Conference Cliff Notes Update
First, this is some quality writing on how Red Bull New York has done roster construction for the past few seasons:
“Homegrown signing? Check.
Taking two players on loan from RB Salzburg? Check.
Bringing in an unknown attacker from an obscure South American club? Check.
Finding a clever way to sign a fringe US youth national team player? Check.”
Again, the entire framing for this section follows from the extent to which what other teams have or haven’t done makes openings for Cincinnati to get the hell out of cellar. It’s not a totally external process, obviously, because Cincy has taken steps to improve (see below), but…bluntly, it takes more to improve out of the fifth ring of Hell than it does to build momentum from a good season - e.g., your New England Revolutions or your Philadelphia Unions (I love when people pluralize singular things), or even to start from the highest ring in Hell. Now, to continue from those notes on the Red Bulls, with no one of note coming in (and Tim Parker going out), the question of whether they improve likely turns on how well…Hans Gruber (no, that’s Die Hard), Gerhard Struber can get the Red Bull-brand system to work. Whatever failures they endure amounts to an opening for Cincinnati. And you go from there…to the best of your capacity to wrap your head around a shit-ton of information and an equal or greater number of unknowns.
Next, that NYCFC/Orlando result caught my eye for two reasons - one, because NYCFC isn’t a finished product and, two, because the addition of player to rest Nani (Silvester van der Water, a Dutch winger) means Orlando covered a weakness on a team that was pretty damn effective in 2020. Without taking too much out of a meaningless result - or even Orlando’s earlier win over Philly - one thought to file away is that NYCFC might have less work to do than their current roster suggests. At the same time, I’m more inclined to see them as someone Cincinnati might catch before they catch Orlando - something I base on existing issues (e.g., injury to Heber, Maxi Moralez’ age) and all the unknowns about the players’ they’ll inevitably bring in, as well as getting them adjusted.
As noted in previous (highly-similar) posts (c’mon, what’ve we got to work with?), it’ll take the stars aligning and making beautiful babies together for Cincinnati to catch some teams in the East - there, I’d include Philadelphia (despite some subtractions), the New England Revolution, and Columbus Crew SC (sorry). I’d also lump Atlanta into that group, especially now that I’ve got a clearer sense of how and how wisely they look to have upgraded; moreover, I don’t think that a disastrous season under Frank de Boer meaningfully eroded a solid foundation. That said, I think/hope that recent moves have put more teams in play than existed prior to this past week - which is how I get to wondering whether Cincinnati can’t catch a team in transition, e.g., NYCFC.
Finally, and assuming Cincinnati genuinely improves, some teams look ripe for picking. For instance, Chicago Fire FC’s decision to stand pat really makes me wonder how they improve on their late mediocrity, while the same applies to DC United to some extent, who still feel like a reasonable bet for a dreaded transition season. Inter Miami CF probably hasn’t done enough to build its defense and that makes them look like another opportunity. That leaves two more teams - e.g., CF Montreal and Nashville SC - both of whom strike me as just beyond reach, if for different reasons. Nashville added more options in the attack - e.g., even a guy like C. J. Sapong wears down a defense, even when he doesn’t score much - which should get them even more mileage out of that sturdy defense. As for Montreal, they might have lost a coach, but they should keep some measure of continuity (by way of recruiting Wilfried Nancy from within) and they’ve invested in almost as many players as Cincy. I know nothing about any of them, but why blindly trust one rebuild, but not another one?
Put all that speculation and daydreaming together and you’ve got a…plausible argument that FC Cincinnati can catch between 5-6 of the teams that finished above them (like everybody else) in 2020. And, for the record, I didn’t say anything about Toronto in the above because you shouldn’t trust one damn thought I have about that team. Now, let’s turn to what Cincinnati did to try to make that possible.
Lucho Has Landed & What He Can’t Fix
I want to state one thing clearly and bluntly: Luciano had only one great season in MLS - 2018, when he benefited from having Wayne Rooney as a foil (or vice versa). Moreover, while he joined Liga MX, he didn’t do much down there. Signing him doesn’t guarantee anything any more than last year’s signing of Jurgen Locadia, you prove it on the field, and so on.
With all that in mind, I’m hanging my hopes around Acosta on another of his MLS seasons, e.g., 2016 when he tallied 11 assists. Holy hairy Christ, what Cincinnati could do with an 11-assist player. Even if Acosta brings nothing more than coherence and a focal point to the Cincinnati attack, the team should improve considerably. Moreover, having watched Locadia play, I can see him saving Locadia from what I’d call his main weakness, the need to create his own shot. I don’t know how Brenner plays yet, but that’s another new target/foil - and even that’s on top of what, say, Yuya Kubo could do with more space and less attention, or even Alvaro Barreal (who had flashes, even in a fucking dire 2020). That said:
“Lots of work to do. Tons.”
That was Doyle’s final thought on FC Cincy and I wish I could disagree. The reality is, all the above could turn to irrelevant shit if the defense leaks goals and, based on the current roster, that reality looks like an injury or two from becoming painfully real. At time of writing, there is no back-up behind Ronald Matarrita at right back and, between the three of them, I’d call Tom Petterson, Mikael van der Werff and Nick Hagglund good at best, serviceable at worst; and, again, there’s only Saad Abdul-Salaam for cover. The situation in front of them is arguably worse in that, if Kamohelo Mokotjo goes down, all Cincy has for cover at that position is an older player who is....sub-great defensively (Haris Medunjanin) and a safe but achingly average player (Caleb Stanko). And there’s the small sample on Mokotjo to boot, which means fans don’t really know what they’ll get out of him. If he exceeds expectations, yippee! If he doesn’t…the argument in this paragraph gets a little sharper.
Cincinnati needs more and, hopefully, they’ll get it far enough ahead of the end of the season to make it count/make the playoffs. And, God willing with a head of steam. The fact the front office says it isn't done is cause for encouragement all on its own.
Portland Timbers/Western Conference Cliff Notes Update
Because the Timbers haven’t done anything much lately beyond playing a couple competitive scrimmages, just about all of what I have to say about them comes from notes on the teams around them.
To start with the big picture, and I think I’ve said this before, I anticipate a loud, snarling fucking dog-fight in the Western Conference this season. I already thought the Timbers had their hands full battling Los Angeles FC (who, for the record, scare me again), Minnesota United FC, Sporting Kansas City, FC Dallas and, yes, the Seattle Sounders to top the West. Given all the churn among their regulars, some might want to write out Seattle (if only out of spite), but I thought Doyle framed their comparatively quiet offseason perfectly with this:
“They're going to move at their own pace, and we know very well by now that ‘their own pace’ means big moves happen in the summer. Just the way it is, and given the level of success they've sustained with this approach, why change it?
I still think they could use a fourth center back, but what do I know.”
When I see people crap on Seattle as a team, I just shake my head. Love ‘em or hate ‘em (and please do the latter), the Sounders have never had a bad season and they always find a way. Look…just never write them off until their dead. Motherfuckers are like movie serial killers…
Now, I’d call all of those baseline assumptions, but there are various moving parts that could see some teams drop out of that mix and other ones come in; or, worst case, it could just see more teams enter the competitive frame. In terms of teams that could drop out, I’m keeping my eye on Sporting KC - and mostly because I didn’t realize how thin they are in defense and, as Doyle argues, in the attack; there’s also the question of how much more wear a player like Roger Espinoza has in him. They’ve been competitive for years - since the new stadium, in particular - but curses/injuries hit SKC like few teams in MLS, so that’s one thing to watch for.
As for teams who could rush into the fray, I have an eye on two - for now. When I’m handicapping teams, the main thing I look for is whether or not they address a known deficiency - or deficiencies, for that matter - and the San Jose Earthquakes did that (or tried to) by signing Eduardo “Chofis” Lopez and, more particularly, Eric Remedi. Even if they only squeaked into the 2020 playoffs, that arguably becomes the foundation they’ll climb from - and both acquisitions make sense as likely (potential) improvements. Next, and as much as I dismiss them, I keep seeing people describe the Vancouver Whitecaps as “one player away” from being credible. That “one player” is a No. 10 - e.g., the kind that doesn’t grow on trees - but, if the rumors of general quality/improvement are true, the right signing should translate as them firing a warning shot. Then again, there's also that culture of losing to address...
To wrap up the rest, Doyle’s high on the Houston Dynamo’s offseason, even if I’m not, so that’s something else to track. The Rapids feel like a known and somewhat limited quantity, and hence unlikely to truly compete, but they were good last year and took enough steps to improve for this one that I expect them to be a challenge. Doyle also takes the Los Angeles Galaxy more seriously than I can, even with effort, but that’s mostly down to the absence of a quality defensive midfielder. Even if they land one, they strike me as incomplete - not least with the unsavory, formal allegations surrounding last year’s one and only bright shining star, Cristian Pavon (as in he’s facing rape charges in Argentina, and soon) - but, as with Seattle, they have more capacity to flip the script than most teams in MLS. Last, and quite probably least, Real Salt Lake looks to have transition years ahead of them, so, even if they repeat as a thorn in Portland’s shoe, I don’t think anyone sees them competing…and yet, all the above sure sounds like plenty of competition.
As for Portland, Doyle goes as far as calling them “stacked” at 1-18, an enviable position by any count. All the same, everything I said about SKC could hit the Timbers - doubly so on the age side. Yes, I know betting against the Diegos (Valeri and Chara) has been starting-a-land-war-in-Asia dumb for some years now, but…the day will come, so let’s just hope it doesn’t come this season…
…and I still want another centerback, dammit, preferably a starter, assuming the team has enough spare change lying around. That’s everything I’ve got on MLS. I’ll close with a quick note on…
Olympic Qualifying and At Least One Discontent
As noted above, I only caught snippets of the U.S.’s by all accounts damned thin win over Costa Rica. I’ll also confess to have lost some amount of perspective on the U.S. Men’s set-up as a whole - e.g., the full universe of who’s available and how they’re doing (the perils of being league-monogamous) - and that amount might be considerable. That said, I saw literally nothing among all the snippets I caught to make me see a bright Olympics tournament; given that they’d have to win whatever semifinal they (better) end up in, I’m not even confident they’ll swing that. No one player really jumped out, the team looked more eager than able, etc. But I’ve got another gripe, and it’s contained in this quote from U.S. Olympic Coach, Jason Kreis:
“Without a doubt, I think that the system that we're playing is a very difficult one, it requires a lot of energy, it requires a lot of running, it requires the players to be calm on the ball. It's not easy to be a team that's looking to build out of the back or maintain possession of the game, this isn't the easy way to play. The easy way to play is to be reactive and counterattack.”
As much as I understand the concept of playing a system - and even appreciate it in the context of trying to build an identity for national teams that come together infrequently - I will always struggle with it on a game-to-game, or even tournament-to-tournament basis. Setting aside the question of personnel (also, don’t set aside the question of personnel, because it’s huge), I can’t wrap my head around playing a system that requires form and, more importantly, match fitness in a must-win situation and, more specifically, at fucking altitude. Basically, a system should never trump circumstances, not when you need the W (Jonesy).
Most of the snippets I caught came at the beginning of the game - when the U.S. players ran themselves ragged - and the end of it - when the U.S. players could barely run. All I could think when watching that was, play the game that’s in front of you. If a system is appropriate for it, groovy. If it’s not, do the fucking smart thing and maybe embrace “the easy way to play” when wisdom points to doing so.
Fin.
In fact, this entire post will be half-reversed in that, rather than start with news/commentary/bullshit on the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati, I’ll interpoloate that among the league-wide stuff. The thinking there is that whatever either team has (Cincinnati) or hasn’t (Portland) done recently happens in the context of what every other team in Major League Soccer does, especially within their respective conferences. (Related: anyone know when the full schedule comes out? Any word on whether the 2021 regular season will be “regular”?)
First things first, the preseason results continue to roll in [Ed. - I’ll update this section tomorrow in the event anything interesting happens today.], so I thought I’d flag any eye-catching results as I go. The pickins remain slim and some apparent points of interest - e.g., the Colorado Rapids’ so-far perfect start to the season - deserve ignoring - e.g., both of the Rapids’ wins came in two 45-minute scrimmages, so moving on. Yes, it’s all very contingent, but, newbies Austin FC logged an impressive result against OKC Energy - a USL 1 team, obviously, but the 4-1 score makes for a good debut by an expansion side. Atlanta United FC, meanwhile, keeps landing results that make their ominous-on-paper handicapping hold up.
[UPDATE: MLS had a busy March 20, with (at least) seven pre-game matches taking place. As always, keep the usual caveats about preseason in mind (e.g., did both teams start a full squad, and so on) as you consider the following: the Rapids remain perfect in preseason with a slim win over Sporting Kansas City; going the other way, the Philadephia Union remains completely imperfect after going down 0-1 against Chicago Fire FC - who also remain perfect for preseason. (NOTE: The Rapids wrap up gives you Colorado's line-up, at least, while you get jack and shit from Chicago's round-up.) Meanwhile, (clap, clap, clap) deep in the heart of Texas, FC Dallas becme the second MLS team to kick the crap out of OKC Energy, with Ricardo Pepi scoring two in their 4-0 win, while the Houston Dynamo played Austin Bold, only no one cared to post that score. The Los Angeles Galaxy couldn't get better than a 1-1 draw against San Diego Loyal and, finally, in a result that FC Cincinnati fans should mind, despite the pain of it, Nashville SC beat Louisville City all up and down (i.e., they rolled 4-0), which makes for a stinky smell-test against Cincy's earlier 0-3 loss the same team.
Finally, my Portland Timbers came out 3-1 winners against the USL's Phoenix Rising (ya ain't risin' yet, MFs!). It was good to see Tega Ikoba score one, even if I don't know who he is (ah, he's an academy kid, now on T2), while Diego Valeri kept rolling from a frankly inspiring 2020 with a goal and an assist. They've got (low-angle) highlights of all the goals (except Phoenix's) in the link above, so drink it on up. My only real thought on the result and Portland's preseason generally, they need all the positive energy they can get when they roll into CD Marathon's digs in the CCL, so keep the Ws coming...please.]
Only one more result caught my eye- New York City FC’s 3-2 win over Orlando City SC - and partially because it provides a great segue to kicking around where all the teams in MLS look to be at the moment and in the only way that really matters to me - vis-à-vis FC Cincy and Portland. I’m basing…oh, everything on Matt Doyle’s Eastern Conference and Western Conference roster-build updates. The point there is not to take everything he writes gospel (I mean, why would you?), but to take the offer of some information over no information. And I’m not going to fine-tooth the stuff in any case, and on the grounds that no one really knows anything until the results make them so. With that, let’s start with points of interest in MLS’s Eastern Conference and to FC Cincinnati.
Eastern Conference Cliff Notes Update
First, this is some quality writing on how Red Bull New York has done roster construction for the past few seasons:
“Homegrown signing? Check.
Taking two players on loan from RB Salzburg? Check.
Bringing in an unknown attacker from an obscure South American club? Check.
Finding a clever way to sign a fringe US youth national team player? Check.”
Again, the entire framing for this section follows from the extent to which what other teams have or haven’t done makes openings for Cincinnati to get the hell out of cellar. It’s not a totally external process, obviously, because Cincy has taken steps to improve (see below), but…bluntly, it takes more to improve out of the fifth ring of Hell than it does to build momentum from a good season - e.g., your New England Revolutions or your Philadelphia Unions (I love when people pluralize singular things), or even to start from the highest ring in Hell. Now, to continue from those notes on the Red Bulls, with no one of note coming in (and Tim Parker going out), the question of whether they improve likely turns on how well…Hans Gruber (no, that’s Die Hard), Gerhard Struber can get the Red Bull-brand system to work. Whatever failures they endure amounts to an opening for Cincinnati. And you go from there…to the best of your capacity to wrap your head around a shit-ton of information and an equal or greater number of unknowns.
Next, that NYCFC/Orlando result caught my eye for two reasons - one, because NYCFC isn’t a finished product and, two, because the addition of player to rest Nani (Silvester van der Water, a Dutch winger) means Orlando covered a weakness on a team that was pretty damn effective in 2020. Without taking too much out of a meaningless result - or even Orlando’s earlier win over Philly - one thought to file away is that NYCFC might have less work to do than their current roster suggests. At the same time, I’m more inclined to see them as someone Cincinnati might catch before they catch Orlando - something I base on existing issues (e.g., injury to Heber, Maxi Moralez’ age) and all the unknowns about the players’ they’ll inevitably bring in, as well as getting them adjusted.
As noted in previous (highly-similar) posts (c’mon, what’ve we got to work with?), it’ll take the stars aligning and making beautiful babies together for Cincinnati to catch some teams in the East - there, I’d include Philadelphia (despite some subtractions), the New England Revolution, and Columbus Crew SC (sorry). I’d also lump Atlanta into that group, especially now that I’ve got a clearer sense of how and how wisely they look to have upgraded; moreover, I don’t think that a disastrous season under Frank de Boer meaningfully eroded a solid foundation. That said, I think/hope that recent moves have put more teams in play than existed prior to this past week - which is how I get to wondering whether Cincinnati can’t catch a team in transition, e.g., NYCFC.
Finally, and assuming Cincinnati genuinely improves, some teams look ripe for picking. For instance, Chicago Fire FC’s decision to stand pat really makes me wonder how they improve on their late mediocrity, while the same applies to DC United to some extent, who still feel like a reasonable bet for a dreaded transition season. Inter Miami CF probably hasn’t done enough to build its defense and that makes them look like another opportunity. That leaves two more teams - e.g., CF Montreal and Nashville SC - both of whom strike me as just beyond reach, if for different reasons. Nashville added more options in the attack - e.g., even a guy like C. J. Sapong wears down a defense, even when he doesn’t score much - which should get them even more mileage out of that sturdy defense. As for Montreal, they might have lost a coach, but they should keep some measure of continuity (by way of recruiting Wilfried Nancy from within) and they’ve invested in almost as many players as Cincy. I know nothing about any of them, but why blindly trust one rebuild, but not another one?
Put all that speculation and daydreaming together and you’ve got a…plausible argument that FC Cincinnati can catch between 5-6 of the teams that finished above them (like everybody else) in 2020. And, for the record, I didn’t say anything about Toronto in the above because you shouldn’t trust one damn thought I have about that team. Now, let’s turn to what Cincinnati did to try to make that possible.
Lucho Has Landed & What He Can’t Fix
I want to state one thing clearly and bluntly: Luciano had only one great season in MLS - 2018, when he benefited from having Wayne Rooney as a foil (or vice versa). Moreover, while he joined Liga MX, he didn’t do much down there. Signing him doesn’t guarantee anything any more than last year’s signing of Jurgen Locadia, you prove it on the field, and so on.
With all that in mind, I’m hanging my hopes around Acosta on another of his MLS seasons, e.g., 2016 when he tallied 11 assists. Holy hairy Christ, what Cincinnati could do with an 11-assist player. Even if Acosta brings nothing more than coherence and a focal point to the Cincinnati attack, the team should improve considerably. Moreover, having watched Locadia play, I can see him saving Locadia from what I’d call his main weakness, the need to create his own shot. I don’t know how Brenner plays yet, but that’s another new target/foil - and even that’s on top of what, say, Yuya Kubo could do with more space and less attention, or even Alvaro Barreal (who had flashes, even in a fucking dire 2020). That said:
“Lots of work to do. Tons.”
That was Doyle’s final thought on FC Cincy and I wish I could disagree. The reality is, all the above could turn to irrelevant shit if the defense leaks goals and, based on the current roster, that reality looks like an injury or two from becoming painfully real. At time of writing, there is no back-up behind Ronald Matarrita at right back and, between the three of them, I’d call Tom Petterson, Mikael van der Werff and Nick Hagglund good at best, serviceable at worst; and, again, there’s only Saad Abdul-Salaam for cover. The situation in front of them is arguably worse in that, if Kamohelo Mokotjo goes down, all Cincy has for cover at that position is an older player who is....sub-great defensively (Haris Medunjanin) and a safe but achingly average player (Caleb Stanko). And there’s the small sample on Mokotjo to boot, which means fans don’t really know what they’ll get out of him. If he exceeds expectations, yippee! If he doesn’t…the argument in this paragraph gets a little sharper.
Cincinnati needs more and, hopefully, they’ll get it far enough ahead of the end of the season to make it count/make the playoffs. And, God willing with a head of steam. The fact the front office says it isn't done is cause for encouragement all on its own.
Portland Timbers/Western Conference Cliff Notes Update
Because the Timbers haven’t done anything much lately beyond playing a couple competitive scrimmages, just about all of what I have to say about them comes from notes on the teams around them.
To start with the big picture, and I think I’ve said this before, I anticipate a loud, snarling fucking dog-fight in the Western Conference this season. I already thought the Timbers had their hands full battling Los Angeles FC (who, for the record, scare me again), Minnesota United FC, Sporting Kansas City, FC Dallas and, yes, the Seattle Sounders to top the West. Given all the churn among their regulars, some might want to write out Seattle (if only out of spite), but I thought Doyle framed their comparatively quiet offseason perfectly with this:
“They're going to move at their own pace, and we know very well by now that ‘their own pace’ means big moves happen in the summer. Just the way it is, and given the level of success they've sustained with this approach, why change it?
I still think they could use a fourth center back, but what do I know.”
When I see people crap on Seattle as a team, I just shake my head. Love ‘em or hate ‘em (and please do the latter), the Sounders have never had a bad season and they always find a way. Look…just never write them off until their dead. Motherfuckers are like movie serial killers…
Now, I’d call all of those baseline assumptions, but there are various moving parts that could see some teams drop out of that mix and other ones come in; or, worst case, it could just see more teams enter the competitive frame. In terms of teams that could drop out, I’m keeping my eye on Sporting KC - and mostly because I didn’t realize how thin they are in defense and, as Doyle argues, in the attack; there’s also the question of how much more wear a player like Roger Espinoza has in him. They’ve been competitive for years - since the new stadium, in particular - but curses/injuries hit SKC like few teams in MLS, so that’s one thing to watch for.
As for teams who could rush into the fray, I have an eye on two - for now. When I’m handicapping teams, the main thing I look for is whether or not they address a known deficiency - or deficiencies, for that matter - and the San Jose Earthquakes did that (or tried to) by signing Eduardo “Chofis” Lopez and, more particularly, Eric Remedi. Even if they only squeaked into the 2020 playoffs, that arguably becomes the foundation they’ll climb from - and both acquisitions make sense as likely (potential) improvements. Next, and as much as I dismiss them, I keep seeing people describe the Vancouver Whitecaps as “one player away” from being credible. That “one player” is a No. 10 - e.g., the kind that doesn’t grow on trees - but, if the rumors of general quality/improvement are true, the right signing should translate as them firing a warning shot. Then again, there's also that culture of losing to address...
To wrap up the rest, Doyle’s high on the Houston Dynamo’s offseason, even if I’m not, so that’s something else to track. The Rapids feel like a known and somewhat limited quantity, and hence unlikely to truly compete, but they were good last year and took enough steps to improve for this one that I expect them to be a challenge. Doyle also takes the Los Angeles Galaxy more seriously than I can, even with effort, but that’s mostly down to the absence of a quality defensive midfielder. Even if they land one, they strike me as incomplete - not least with the unsavory, formal allegations surrounding last year’s one and only bright shining star, Cristian Pavon (as in he’s facing rape charges in Argentina, and soon) - but, as with Seattle, they have more capacity to flip the script than most teams in MLS. Last, and quite probably least, Real Salt Lake looks to have transition years ahead of them, so, even if they repeat as a thorn in Portland’s shoe, I don’t think anyone sees them competing…and yet, all the above sure sounds like plenty of competition.
As for Portland, Doyle goes as far as calling them “stacked” at 1-18, an enviable position by any count. All the same, everything I said about SKC could hit the Timbers - doubly so on the age side. Yes, I know betting against the Diegos (Valeri and Chara) has been starting-a-land-war-in-Asia dumb for some years now, but…the day will come, so let’s just hope it doesn’t come this season…
…and I still want another centerback, dammit, preferably a starter, assuming the team has enough spare change lying around. That’s everything I’ve got on MLS. I’ll close with a quick note on…
Olympic Qualifying and At Least One Discontent
As noted above, I only caught snippets of the U.S.’s by all accounts damned thin win over Costa Rica. I’ll also confess to have lost some amount of perspective on the U.S. Men’s set-up as a whole - e.g., the full universe of who’s available and how they’re doing (the perils of being league-monogamous) - and that amount might be considerable. That said, I saw literally nothing among all the snippets I caught to make me see a bright Olympics tournament; given that they’d have to win whatever semifinal they (better) end up in, I’m not even confident they’ll swing that. No one player really jumped out, the team looked more eager than able, etc. But I’ve got another gripe, and it’s contained in this quote from U.S. Olympic Coach, Jason Kreis:
“Without a doubt, I think that the system that we're playing is a very difficult one, it requires a lot of energy, it requires a lot of running, it requires the players to be calm on the ball. It's not easy to be a team that's looking to build out of the back or maintain possession of the game, this isn't the easy way to play. The easy way to play is to be reactive and counterattack.”
As much as I understand the concept of playing a system - and even appreciate it in the context of trying to build an identity for national teams that come together infrequently - I will always struggle with it on a game-to-game, or even tournament-to-tournament basis. Setting aside the question of personnel (also, don’t set aside the question of personnel, because it’s huge), I can’t wrap my head around playing a system that requires form and, more importantly, match fitness in a must-win situation and, more specifically, at fucking altitude. Basically, a system should never trump circumstances, not when you need the W (Jonesy).
Most of the snippets I caught came at the beginning of the game - when the U.S. players ran themselves ragged - and the end of it - when the U.S. players could barely run. All I could think when watching that was, play the game that’s in front of you. If a system is appropriate for it, groovy. If it’s not, do the fucking smart thing and maybe embrace “the easy way to play” when wisdom points to doing so.
Fin.
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