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| Hangry for games/results. |
This week, the Weakly will truly live up to its name. Yessir…
The Major League Soccer preseason continues, but the league’s brain trust has made it…bafflingly hard to keep track of who’s doing what. While I’m confident that some kind of rich asshole logic informs decisions like, say, failing to update the preseason schedules/scores page - particularly when it comes to preseason games against teams from other leagues - or the regionally-restricted streaming that blacked-out FC Cincinnati’s preseason game (and win!) against (and over!) Chicago Fire FC, the upshot is the same: I’m stuck getting second-hand intel on the Portland Timbers’ and Cincinnati’s respective preseasons from the Happy Friends who live in my phone.
Fortunately, the news has been good for FC Cincy and…goodish for the Timbers. The former just wrapped up a 2-1 win over Chicago as I’m typing, while Portland dropped a hint they’ll continue last season’s formula of scoring more (or as many) goals than (the considerable number) they allow with a 3-3 draw against Sporting Kansas City earlier this week. I’d like to have more to say about both games - my Kingdom for even one puckish insight - but I can’t have much to say about what I don’t see…though the Happy Friends in My Phone, Ohio Chapter, seemed pretty happy with what they saw against Chicago. Luciano Acosta scored one and new-kid Calvin Harris added one more by following up a “dummy,” and there’s some enthusing about the depth (ht: @GeoffTebbetts) that feels encouraging.
I suppose I’m not totally paralyzed. For instance, you can glean things here and there - e.g., that Chicago had edged both New York City FC and the Philadelphia Union before tripping over li’l ol’ Cincinnati - and add other results - e.g., that NYCFC beat both Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew SC after dropping that scrimmage to Chicago, or that Philadelphia has lost to everyone they’ve played thus far - but nothing replaces direct observation and I’m…just annoyed with the powers that be and wish they’d stop choking off access to this stuff. Moreover, I refuse to check three different sites trying to figure out how, say, the Seattle Sounders fared against Tacoma Defiance on March 25th, or how Atlanta United FC played against Chattanooga FC the day before (or did that one get postponed due to COVID?).
[UPDATE: The Mothership finally stirred itself to update some scores (maybe they want a monopoly on product?), including games for Minnesota United FC, Real Salt Lake, FC Dallas and Red Bull New York. The results went...mostly as expected, with the two standouts being Minnesota kicking the holy shit out of the Charleston Battery (srsly, 9-0) and the Red Bulls losing 0-2 to Miami FC.]
Therefore and pursuant thereto, it is with great regret that I just give up and post notes on the random, speculative horseshit that The Mothership posts during every offseason - e.g., “each MLS team’s breakout player candidate” and “the Top 10 newcomers.” After that, I’ll look at the schedules for Portland and Cincinnati and try to wring some more bullshit out of that. If I survive the humiliation and psychic pain of those processes, I might close out with notes on the progress of the U.S. Men’s Olympic Team in their attempts to qualify for this summer’s Tokyo Olympics…
…or I might just give up and link to a couple points of interest. Moving on….to nowhere. Thanks, stingy assholes…
The Top 10 Newcomers article is…fine, I guess. If I had to flag something noteworthy, it’d be that both Cincinnati (Acosta and Brenner) and FC Dallas have two players on the list. That speaks to two clubs who have put in real work to improve - if, significantly, they start from different former places (e.g., the bottom of the cellar floor and well in the playoff mix (is that the kitchen? the dining room?), respectively). The Timbers have one player on the list - Claudio Bravo - thereby leaving scraps for the league’s 24 teams, but only when it comes to having shiny new toys. All in all, it’s sort of an odd collection of players - a mish-mash of defenders, fullbacks, wingers and Acosta - but the notes on a few (e.g., Gregore, Tomas Pochettino, Derrick Williams and Jose Antonio Martinez have been filed away).
The “breakout player” post felt like the more useful read, both for the global coverage and for the way it drops a couple names for (literally) every team in MLS. It’s also…just not the same as having actual, factual information like wins, losses and something to watch on a Saturday morning, and SON OF A BITCHING REGIONAL BLACKOUT!!
Ahem. Let’s just get this over with and before more unfortunate outbursts.
Portland Timbers, Its Season and Its Breakout Star(?)
When calling Portland’s breakout star, Matt Doyle (author of the breakout star article) did the wise thing and stated, “I have no idea,” but later defaulted to Jeremy Ebobisse, and in a position (center forward) where he doesn’t see him playing. Just…why?
Personally, I’m (still) hoping to see some younger player well and truly step up for the Timbers in 2021, and mostly because I want - no, I need - to see where this team goes after some inevitable, looming retirements. Even with Tomas Conechny gone, a gaggle of players remain - here, I’m mostly thinking Marvin Loria, Cristhian Paredes, and Renzo Zambrano, but maybe also Blake Bodily, or even Andy Polo - who have massive, legend-in-progress boots to fill when Diego Valeri, Diego Chara and Sebastian Blanco move on to Soccer Valhalla. Like Doyle says, Erik Williamson made the jump (or a jump) in 2020, so I’m hoping that any one of those three (or five) players joins him (at least) one level up. It’s entirely possible, of course, that none of them will ever make it, but it’d be really nice and genuinely soothing to see more of the depth bubble-up.
Now, as everyone knows, the full regular season schedule dropped earlier this week. Pursuant thereto, I’d like to quote something from that breakout player article:
“The 2021 schedule has been released and, while it's not as compressed as what we saw last year, it is nonetheless heavy on the back-end with a lot of three-game weeks for literally every team. That means we're once again going to see lots of squad rotation, and lots of players who otherwise wouldn't be getting many minutes actually earning tons of them, and hopefully thriving.”
And, yes, one does start to spot those three-game weeks looking at the Timbers’ 2021 schedule, starting after that weird break (for the Nations’ Cup?) in June (v SKC, @ HOU, v MIN), then repeating again for pretty damn tight stretch from late July to early August (v FCD, v LAFC, @ MIN, @ LAG, v SJ, v RSL, all between July 17 and August 7), followed by another spasm in late mid-August (v SEA, @ SKC, @ AUS), before things loosen up, if only a bit, before choke-points in late September (v RSL, @ LAFC, v MIA), and again in late October (@ LAG, v VAN, @ COL, v SJ, between October 16 and 27). The July and October stretches have me feeling nervous given Portland’s “let’s get the guys together for one last big score” approach to 2021; I mean, if San Jose or the Galaxy improve at all, that July-August could see some real carnage - especially if the Timbers’ young veterans can’t step up.
Look, given “normal” game conditions, I like Portland’s chances against just about any team in the league. And I know (or hope?) that it won’t be like the end of 2020 when injuries left the Timbers with an ever-shrinking player pool, at least for most of the season. All the same, the structure of regular season does not favor a team built around aging stars. I’m not saying it’s impossible - especially when seven of 13 teams in the Western Conference qualify for the MLS Playoffs - but managing minutes and recovering from some inevitably dropped points strikes me as Portland's main challenge of 2021. Unless, again, the Timbers can get quality minutes from some players who have, heretofore, not reliably delivered them.
Looking at it from the brighter side, I’d argue that the Timbers start (@ VAN, v HOU, @ FCD, v SEA, @ SJ, v LAG, @ PHI, v SKC) and end (v MIA, @ LAG, v VAN @ COL, v SJ, @ RSL, v AUS) fairly gently, something that should pad their account at the beginning, while leaving (some) room for error at the end. At any rate, I’m just spit-ballin’ over here…man, if only I had something I could look directly at, y’know? As for the other team…
FC Cincinnati, The Season and Its Breakout Star(?)
Frank Amaya? That’s your breakout player? No shit? Credit Doyle for making a solid case that they wanted to keep Amaya (“You don't say no to seven figures worth of allocation cash unless you're planning to play the kid”), but I stumble over the very next thought: “a lot, and in his best spot.” And Amaya’s best spot is…? I agree they’ll get a lot of minutes out of Amaya; I’m just having trouble visualizing what his “breakout” will look like. Which is not, by the way, the same as not wanting to see it.
As for their schedule, Cincinnati will need to rotate its squad just like everyone else, but I don’t expect the need to be as dire. They’ll have the added challenge of getting a first team that functions with some reliability - just seeing them get the W today (or rather just hearing about) puts a wee lift in my loafers - but that’ll come or it won’t. More to point, if it does come together, the order and timing of Cincinnati’s schedule will look different.
About that, I’m not seeing too many killer stretches - e.g., a tough start (@ NSH, @ NYC, @ ORL) gives way to something more reasonable (v MIA, @ MTL, v NE, v COL, @ CHI) - and, barring vast improvement from, say, DC United, Red Bull New York, or even Miami (see, Gregore), Cincinnati should have a reasonable chance to punch upwards. For once. To be clear, a loose theory of a weaker Eastern Conference definitely shapes that opinion, and we’ll have to see how that holds up, but it all presents as the potential for daylight. Now, if DC or the Red Bulls - or, gods forbid, both of them - have stronger seasons, the wheels could fly all the way off during, say, the months of July and August or from early-middle September to mid-October (v TFC, @ ATL, v NYC, @ DC, @ TFC, v RBNY, v ORL); there are just a lot of variables, plus a couple more thanks to the past couple shaky seasons in the Queen City.
Well, that’s all I’ve got for this week, or all I’ve been given, anyway. Happily, I’ll get to see a couple games tomorrow - the U.S. senior team against Northern Ireland bright ‘n’ fucking early followed by the U.S. Olympic Team versus Honduras tomorrow at 3 p.m. - and might crank out a “what does it all mean” brain-fart of a post when that’s all done. Speaking of international competitions, so…there’s the Gold Cup kicking off this July, and the...2020 Nations League before that, plus…World Cup qual….fuck it. I’ll sort it out when it comes. Just…when is the next Nations Cup tournament? Will there even be one? Speaking of international competitions…
The League Cup Returns
Now, I’d assumed that the League Cup was the CONCACAF club equivalent of the Europa League - i.e., a way for the rich assholes who run the various leagues to make money off the teams who couldn’t qualify for the CONCACAF Champions’ League (CCL). And, based on its current composition and qualifying teams - Orlando, Seattle, NYCFC, and SKC - that seems to hold up. But, when reading an ESPN piece on the potential, future merger between MLS and Liga MX, I read this little burble:
“…and the Leagues Cup, a multi-team competition that in 2023, will serve as a qualification tournament for the CONCACAF Champions League.”
So…is the plan to have the winner of the League Cup qualify for the following CCL? Also, why does this have to be so hard? And can we just merge the leagues now and stop thinking about it?
MLS Team Valuation
The Athletic ($ site) pulled together a little dive into why the value of MLS franchises keeps growing. I tweeted out a link to it earlier this week, but didn’t want to make another goddamn thread, so I saved the logic behind that semi-mysterious growth for this. See long paragraph:
“If you’re putting together a pitch for why someone should buy an MLS team, I think one of the things you’re including is that most other North American leagues are already at the pinnacle of their sport,” said A.J. Swoboda, managing director of the Americas for 21st Club, a sports intelligence firm that advises teams in Europe and North America and has experience helping individuals buy clubs on both sides of the Atlantic. “But assume you’re buying into a club that is in a league that is not at the pinnacle of its sport, for which there is so much money and attention in that sport globally. If there’s even a small chance that MLS could become a top league in the world at some point, the potential return associated with that would be enticing.”
The same article included this little, local detail worth sharing:
“In 2019, the outlet valued the Sounders at $405 million and the Timbers at $390 million — more than 10 times greater than either club’s expansion fee — with Seattle’s growth coming despite a lack of any major infrastructure investments.”
Seattle bought in for $30 million and Portland for $35 million. Explains a thing or two.
Right, that’s all I’ve got. Between not having much to write about and some life stuff to manage, it’s possible I’ll put the Weakly to bed until the regular season starts. I’d like to do one more piece where I try to fit together who looks how good (or bad) going into the regular season, but I don’t think I can pull that off absent better reporting/visuals on the preseason itself. I’ll have Portland’s run in the CCL eventually, but that could be it between here and there. Till whenever…
The Major League Soccer preseason continues, but the league’s brain trust has made it…bafflingly hard to keep track of who’s doing what. While I’m confident that some kind of rich asshole logic informs decisions like, say, failing to update the preseason schedules/scores page - particularly when it comes to preseason games against teams from other leagues - or the regionally-restricted streaming that blacked-out FC Cincinnati’s preseason game (and win!) against (and over!) Chicago Fire FC, the upshot is the same: I’m stuck getting second-hand intel on the Portland Timbers’ and Cincinnati’s respective preseasons from the Happy Friends who live in my phone.
Fortunately, the news has been good for FC Cincy and…goodish for the Timbers. The former just wrapped up a 2-1 win over Chicago as I’m typing, while Portland dropped a hint they’ll continue last season’s formula of scoring more (or as many) goals than (the considerable number) they allow with a 3-3 draw against Sporting Kansas City earlier this week. I’d like to have more to say about both games - my Kingdom for even one puckish insight - but I can’t have much to say about what I don’t see…though the Happy Friends in My Phone, Ohio Chapter, seemed pretty happy with what they saw against Chicago. Luciano Acosta scored one and new-kid Calvin Harris added one more by following up a “dummy,” and there’s some enthusing about the depth (ht: @GeoffTebbetts) that feels encouraging.
I suppose I’m not totally paralyzed. For instance, you can glean things here and there - e.g., that Chicago had edged both New York City FC and the Philadelphia Union before tripping over li’l ol’ Cincinnati - and add other results - e.g., that NYCFC beat both Orlando City SC and Columbus Crew SC after dropping that scrimmage to Chicago, or that Philadelphia has lost to everyone they’ve played thus far - but nothing replaces direct observation and I’m…just annoyed with the powers that be and wish they’d stop choking off access to this stuff. Moreover, I refuse to check three different sites trying to figure out how, say, the Seattle Sounders fared against Tacoma Defiance on March 25th, or how Atlanta United FC played against Chattanooga FC the day before (or did that one get postponed due to COVID?).
[UPDATE: The Mothership finally stirred itself to update some scores (maybe they want a monopoly on product?), including games for Minnesota United FC, Real Salt Lake, FC Dallas and Red Bull New York. The results went...mostly as expected, with the two standouts being Minnesota kicking the holy shit out of the Charleston Battery (srsly, 9-0) and the Red Bulls losing 0-2 to Miami FC.]
Therefore and pursuant thereto, it is with great regret that I just give up and post notes on the random, speculative horseshit that The Mothership posts during every offseason - e.g., “each MLS team’s breakout player candidate” and “the Top 10 newcomers.” After that, I’ll look at the schedules for Portland and Cincinnati and try to wring some more bullshit out of that. If I survive the humiliation and psychic pain of those processes, I might close out with notes on the progress of the U.S. Men’s Olympic Team in their attempts to qualify for this summer’s Tokyo Olympics…
…or I might just give up and link to a couple points of interest. Moving on….to nowhere. Thanks, stingy assholes…
The Top 10 Newcomers article is…fine, I guess. If I had to flag something noteworthy, it’d be that both Cincinnati (Acosta and Brenner) and FC Dallas have two players on the list. That speaks to two clubs who have put in real work to improve - if, significantly, they start from different former places (e.g., the bottom of the cellar floor and well in the playoff mix (is that the kitchen? the dining room?), respectively). The Timbers have one player on the list - Claudio Bravo - thereby leaving scraps for the league’s 24 teams, but only when it comes to having shiny new toys. All in all, it’s sort of an odd collection of players - a mish-mash of defenders, fullbacks, wingers and Acosta - but the notes on a few (e.g., Gregore, Tomas Pochettino, Derrick Williams and Jose Antonio Martinez have been filed away).
The “breakout player” post felt like the more useful read, both for the global coverage and for the way it drops a couple names for (literally) every team in MLS. It’s also…just not the same as having actual, factual information like wins, losses and something to watch on a Saturday morning, and SON OF A BITCHING REGIONAL BLACKOUT!!
Ahem. Let’s just get this over with and before more unfortunate outbursts.
Portland Timbers, Its Season and Its Breakout Star(?)
When calling Portland’s breakout star, Matt Doyle (author of the breakout star article) did the wise thing and stated, “I have no idea,” but later defaulted to Jeremy Ebobisse, and in a position (center forward) where he doesn’t see him playing. Just…why?
Personally, I’m (still) hoping to see some younger player well and truly step up for the Timbers in 2021, and mostly because I want - no, I need - to see where this team goes after some inevitable, looming retirements. Even with Tomas Conechny gone, a gaggle of players remain - here, I’m mostly thinking Marvin Loria, Cristhian Paredes, and Renzo Zambrano, but maybe also Blake Bodily, or even Andy Polo - who have massive, legend-in-progress boots to fill when Diego Valeri, Diego Chara and Sebastian Blanco move on to Soccer Valhalla. Like Doyle says, Erik Williamson made the jump (or a jump) in 2020, so I’m hoping that any one of those three (or five) players joins him (at least) one level up. It’s entirely possible, of course, that none of them will ever make it, but it’d be really nice and genuinely soothing to see more of the depth bubble-up.
Now, as everyone knows, the full regular season schedule dropped earlier this week. Pursuant thereto, I’d like to quote something from that breakout player article:
“The 2021 schedule has been released and, while it's not as compressed as what we saw last year, it is nonetheless heavy on the back-end with a lot of three-game weeks for literally every team. That means we're once again going to see lots of squad rotation, and lots of players who otherwise wouldn't be getting many minutes actually earning tons of them, and hopefully thriving.”
And, yes, one does start to spot those three-game weeks looking at the Timbers’ 2021 schedule, starting after that weird break (for the Nations’ Cup?) in June (v SKC, @ HOU, v MIN), then repeating again for pretty damn tight stretch from late July to early August (v FCD, v LAFC, @ MIN, @ LAG, v SJ, v RSL, all between July 17 and August 7), followed by another spasm in late mid-August (v SEA, @ SKC, @ AUS), before things loosen up, if only a bit, before choke-points in late September (v RSL, @ LAFC, v MIA), and again in late October (@ LAG, v VAN, @ COL, v SJ, between October 16 and 27). The July and October stretches have me feeling nervous given Portland’s “let’s get the guys together for one last big score” approach to 2021; I mean, if San Jose or the Galaxy improve at all, that July-August could see some real carnage - especially if the Timbers’ young veterans can’t step up.
Look, given “normal” game conditions, I like Portland’s chances against just about any team in the league. And I know (or hope?) that it won’t be like the end of 2020 when injuries left the Timbers with an ever-shrinking player pool, at least for most of the season. All the same, the structure of regular season does not favor a team built around aging stars. I’m not saying it’s impossible - especially when seven of 13 teams in the Western Conference qualify for the MLS Playoffs - but managing minutes and recovering from some inevitably dropped points strikes me as Portland's main challenge of 2021. Unless, again, the Timbers can get quality minutes from some players who have, heretofore, not reliably delivered them.
Looking at it from the brighter side, I’d argue that the Timbers start (@ VAN, v HOU, @ FCD, v SEA, @ SJ, v LAG, @ PHI, v SKC) and end (v MIA, @ LAG, v VAN @ COL, v SJ, @ RSL, v AUS) fairly gently, something that should pad their account at the beginning, while leaving (some) room for error at the end. At any rate, I’m just spit-ballin’ over here…man, if only I had something I could look directly at, y’know? As for the other team…
FC Cincinnati, The Season and Its Breakout Star(?)
Frank Amaya? That’s your breakout player? No shit? Credit Doyle for making a solid case that they wanted to keep Amaya (“You don't say no to seven figures worth of allocation cash unless you're planning to play the kid”), but I stumble over the very next thought: “a lot, and in his best spot.” And Amaya’s best spot is…? I agree they’ll get a lot of minutes out of Amaya; I’m just having trouble visualizing what his “breakout” will look like. Which is not, by the way, the same as not wanting to see it.
As for their schedule, Cincinnati will need to rotate its squad just like everyone else, but I don’t expect the need to be as dire. They’ll have the added challenge of getting a first team that functions with some reliability - just seeing them get the W today (or rather just hearing about) puts a wee lift in my loafers - but that’ll come or it won’t. More to point, if it does come together, the order and timing of Cincinnati’s schedule will look different.
About that, I’m not seeing too many killer stretches - e.g., a tough start (@ NSH, @ NYC, @ ORL) gives way to something more reasonable (v MIA, @ MTL, v NE, v COL, @ CHI) - and, barring vast improvement from, say, DC United, Red Bull New York, or even Miami (see, Gregore), Cincinnati should have a reasonable chance to punch upwards. For once. To be clear, a loose theory of a weaker Eastern Conference definitely shapes that opinion, and we’ll have to see how that holds up, but it all presents as the potential for daylight. Now, if DC or the Red Bulls - or, gods forbid, both of them - have stronger seasons, the wheels could fly all the way off during, say, the months of July and August or from early-middle September to mid-October (v TFC, @ ATL, v NYC, @ DC, @ TFC, v RBNY, v ORL); there are just a lot of variables, plus a couple more thanks to the past couple shaky seasons in the Queen City.
Well, that’s all I’ve got for this week, or all I’ve been given, anyway. Happily, I’ll get to see a couple games tomorrow - the U.S. senior team against Northern Ireland bright ‘n’ fucking early followed by the U.S. Olympic Team versus Honduras tomorrow at 3 p.m. - and might crank out a “what does it all mean” brain-fart of a post when that’s all done. Speaking of international competitions, so…there’s the Gold Cup kicking off this July, and the...2020 Nations League before that, plus…World Cup qual….fuck it. I’ll sort it out when it comes. Just…when is the next Nations Cup tournament? Will there even be one? Speaking of international competitions…
The League Cup Returns
Now, I’d assumed that the League Cup was the CONCACAF club equivalent of the Europa League - i.e., a way for the rich assholes who run the various leagues to make money off the teams who couldn’t qualify for the CONCACAF Champions’ League (CCL). And, based on its current composition and qualifying teams - Orlando, Seattle, NYCFC, and SKC - that seems to hold up. But, when reading an ESPN piece on the potential, future merger between MLS and Liga MX, I read this little burble:
“…and the Leagues Cup, a multi-team competition that in 2023, will serve as a qualification tournament for the CONCACAF Champions League.”
So…is the plan to have the winner of the League Cup qualify for the following CCL? Also, why does this have to be so hard? And can we just merge the leagues now and stop thinking about it?
MLS Team Valuation
The Athletic ($ site) pulled together a little dive into why the value of MLS franchises keeps growing. I tweeted out a link to it earlier this week, but didn’t want to make another goddamn thread, so I saved the logic behind that semi-mysterious growth for this. See long paragraph:
“If you’re putting together a pitch for why someone should buy an MLS team, I think one of the things you’re including is that most other North American leagues are already at the pinnacle of their sport,” said A.J. Swoboda, managing director of the Americas for 21st Club, a sports intelligence firm that advises teams in Europe and North America and has experience helping individuals buy clubs on both sides of the Atlantic. “But assume you’re buying into a club that is in a league that is not at the pinnacle of its sport, for which there is so much money and attention in that sport globally. If there’s even a small chance that MLS could become a top league in the world at some point, the potential return associated with that would be enticing.”
The same article included this little, local detail worth sharing:
“In 2019, the outlet valued the Sounders at $405 million and the Timbers at $390 million — more than 10 times greater than either club’s expansion fee — with Seattle’s growth coming despite a lack of any major infrastructure investments.”
Seattle bought in for $30 million and Portland for $35 million. Explains a thing or two.
Right, that’s all I’ve got. Between not having much to write about and some life stuff to manage, it’s possible I’ll put the Weakly to bed until the regular season starts. I’d like to do one more piece where I try to fit together who looks how good (or bad) going into the regular season, but I don’t think I can pull that off absent better reporting/visuals on the preseason itself. I’ll have Portland’s run in the CCL eventually, but that could be it between here and there. Till whenever…
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