Monday, February 21, 2022

MLS Weakly/Portland Timbers Preview Addendum/and MLS Week 1 Preview

Portrait of the Author.
This preview post will be a rare content mash-up of the 2022 Major League Soccer season in that it will add to my preview of the Portland Timbers (posted here), preview MLS Week 1, and talk about expectations for the 2022 season as whole - and not in that order.

I already previewed FC Cincinnati, who haven’t done more than play a couple preseason games I couldn’t watch because stupid blackouts. Read all about it here, and do try to keep your chin up; they’ll sign that No. 6 soon. Hopefully. Related thereto, I don’t expect Cincy to figure prominently in the narratives about the 2022 season - at least not ones teams aspire to, not yet and maybe not till 2023 (or 2024...can I get a 2025?). With that, let’s look at the teams who either will or might, aka…

Teams That Interest Me in Various Ways
I plowed through the Matryoshka Doll that is The Mothership’s preview feature this morning as a way to (finally) limber up for Major League Soccer’s 2022 season, which will jump out of the bushes and scare the collective shit out of all of us next weekend. As mentioned in the last MLS Weakly, I made a resolution for 2022 that I’d only track the teams and games that interest me one way or the other. I’d hoped that would trim some fat off the Weakly posts, help with the focus, etc. Unfortunately, the head-count includes just over half the league, so the trimmings will have to come later. I list all my personal teams of interest below, along with the wherefores and whys for their inclusion, but because…I don’t know, fun(?), I’ll leave figuring out the omissions and the rationales for rejecting them to the reader. Think of it as Where’s Waldo, only Waldo is invisible and/or does not appear on the page (also, the creators of those books had to just leave him off once...right? Just for shits 'n' giggles?). To be clear, my position isn’t that those unnamed teams will never be good in 2022 (though a couple candidates do stand out), but that I didn’t see anything in their off-season that raises my expectations.

Now, I’ve dropped the teams of interest into two categories: 1) teams I expect to be good and competitive due to their 2021 baseline, and 2) teams that made enough compelling changes during the 2021-22 off-season to make me wonder whether they’ll do something in 2022. Starting with the first group:

The Good/Competitive, Mostly Unchanged Teams(listed alphabetically, fwiw)
Colorado Rapids
The Rapids neither lost (Kellyn Acosta stands out) nor added a lot (Bryan Acosta from FCD, and U22 No. 10, Max Alves), but they already stand on a solid foundation, and their midfield (Mark-Anthony Kaye, Jack Price and Acosta) is…just really good. And they've got room for some big signings to boot.

Columbus Crew SC
You can tell me they’re misplaced here all day, but I’m still trying to figure out how Columbus missed the 2021 playoffs with that roster. They added (another) winger with Yaw Yeboah, but it’s the signing of center back Milos Degenek that makes me believe/worry they’ll grind out the 1-0s.

Sporting Kansas City
Their biggest issue was ret-conning the offense with Alan Pulido out for the season - they drafted a Montenegrin striker Nikola Vujnovic for the job - but, even with the aesthetic murder by Peter Vermes in the mix, this is a whole and good team.

Nashville SC
They’ve always been strong defensively (and landed in a three-way tie for fewest goals against in 2021), but they finally upgraded the attack - which they needed in order to fight back in all those (18) ties last season. Nashville neither lost (Jhonder Cadiz) nor added (Teal Bunbury) a ton, but they do have a succession plan in place for Dax McCarty in Sean Davis.

New England Revolution
I’d rather have Tajon Buchanan than Sebastian Lletget (and I like Lletget), and losing Matt Turner to Arsenal mid-summer ain’t ideal. Still, a team that just won the Shield on a single-season points record can only fall so far - even if they only picked up a couple high-end rejects (Jozy Altidore and Omar Gonzalez(?)) from Toronto.

New York City FC
Ah, the team I can’t stop resenting. They won MLS Cup on the classic formula of being hell to score against and doing just enough in the attack. Even if they may lose Taty Castellanos (prick!) mid-season and I’ve got doubts about Maxi Moralez has another season in him, but they’re solid.

Red Bull New York
Yeah, yeah, they barely made the 2021 playoffs and checked out after the first round, but, they were in that 3-way tie for best goals-against record and Gerhard Struber got them back to their smothering, energy-drink best. It’ll be fun to see what Luquinhas (winger/No. 10) can do and Lewis Morgan should up the entertainment factor.

Philadelphia Union
They finished 2nd with Nashville panting down their necks, and covered what they lost - Jamiro Monteiro and Kacper Przybylko - if on paper, with Julian Carranza from Miami (who still seems like mystery meat) and a Danish striker named Mikael Uhre.

Seattle Sounders
As much as I don’t see giving away Shane O’Neill and Brad Smith as trifles, Seattle was the third team in that 3-way tie for fewest goals allowed, and poaching Albert Rusnak from RSL gives an already strong team/attack another dimension.

Teams That (Perhaps) Upgraded (again, listed alphabetically)
Chicago Fire FC
Sure, Chicago rebuilds annually, but they added some serious shit: Xherdan Shaqiri (Swiss National Team captain), Przybylko (a proven MLS talent), and two young promising players (Jairo Torres and Jhon Duran, aka, that kid they signed before he could even join them). I realize betting on Chicago is like going all-in on one number in Roulette, especially with a new head coach (Ezra Hendrickson) in the mix, but…c’mon, they’re due, right? (Put it all on 33!!)

FC Dallas
On the one hand, they didn’t upgrade the defense that plagued them in 2021 and shipped their old reliable, Ryan Hollingshead, to LAFC; on the other, I rate Marco Farfan and think a high-work-rate veteran like Paul Arriola will take some pressure of the backline by defending better in midfield.

DC United
Of all the signings I saw on those thumbnail previews, DC’s intrigued me most: both Michael Estrada and Taxiarchis Fountas have strong pedigrees and look like big deals. And covering the loss of Kevin Paredes with Brad Smith was good business (even if they’re different players). The only concern: their defense didn’t excel in 2021 and I don't see any moves to improve it.

Los Angeles Galaxy
They didn’t do much - especially with that soft defense - but they swung big enough by signing Douglas Costa to pique my interest. So much depends on Chicharito staying whole…

Los Angeles FC
Call it a combination of a new, largely untested coach (Steve Cherundolo) and a fascination with intra-league trades. Losing Eduardo Atuesta doesn’t help, but Kellyn Acosta should paper that over and they did really well to sign Hollingshead. Dude makes things happen…

Orlando City SC
As often happens, Orlando replaced just about everyone they lost - e.g., Nani, Daryl Dike and Chris Mueller - while I wasn’t looking, and with players half the age (well, in Nani's case). Facundo Torres (young, but strong pedigree), Ercan Kara and Cesar Araujo all present as younger (which they needed) high-upside players. And Orlando’s spine remains intact.

Toronto FC
I’d call Richie Laryea their only real loss (the others; Altidore (who never seemed happy), Jefferson Soteldo (who never fully settled) and Gonzalez (who looks past it)). They made a loud splash by signing Lorenzo Insigne, but that wouldn’t have been enough if they hadn’t upgraded at center-back with Carlos Salcedo and Shane O’Neill. Their defense really sucked in 2021…

That’s all of ‘em for me. If I didn’t list your team’s name, there’s always next season or just me getting a bad read out of the tea leaves. There’s one more team not listed above and who I believe will be competitive, but they’re also my local team, so I wanted to dig a little deeper on them.

Portland Timbers, Notes on the Dress Rehearsals
The Timbers wrapped the preseason beef jerky tournament with a 3-0 win over Real Salt Lake. They didn't fully wake up till the second half, but that still ended dress rehearsals on an up. Those started (at least where people could see the games) with eking out a chippy/nervy 1-0 win out against Minnesota United FC, followed by the 1-3 ass-whuppin’ Norway’s Viking FK put on the depth players. I opted against writing individual posts for each of those, due partly to all the missing players, but also because I’ve finally accepted that preseason doesn’t matter and that desperation to make it do so is a little sad. (Hell, half the regular season barely counts.) That said, I wanted to note some things that stood out.

First, I was struck by how deep Gio set up the line of engagement and how visibly he organized it into a 4-4-2. As much as Portland has a reputation for letting teams come at them, how rarely they pressed surprised me a little, especially for the way it gave opposing center-backs days on the ball. I suppose that takes a certain confidence and assume Gio will carry that same set-up into the regular season, at least until some starters return(? maybe?), and I guess it’s fine, even if something about it makes me antsy. Maybe it’s a nod to keeping Diego Chara’s legs fresh (though he seemed eager as ever to run) or giving Christhian Paredes more support, but it worked well enough against the two mid-table MLS teams Portland played. Going the other way, Minnesota was the lowest-scoring team in the West last season that didn’t outright suck (e.g., Austin FC and Houston Dynamo FC) and the Timbers just seem to have RSL’s number - i.e., I don’t want to read security into that set-up until it gets battle-tested.

From what I gather, it looks like the Timbers will start the season with several of last season’s starters missing, including: Sebastian Blanco, Felipe Mora, Larrys Mabiala and Dario Zuparic; Eryk Willamson belongs in that group to some extent, but he makes for a harder read due to the fact that he hasn’t had a ton of time-in on Portland regular set-up. I expect the Timbers to improve when Blanco’s drive, talent and magic gets back on the field and getting Mora’s sneaky-shit savvy back in the mix should complement that and press the ceiling a little higher. On the other end, I thought Bill Tuiloma and Zac McGraw looked capable enough over two games they played to get me comfortable with them as starters. I still expect Portland to drop a handful of points they wouldn’t at full strength, but I also don’t see the hole getting so deep that they can’t crawl out of it.

Because Gio started an experimental line-up against Viking, I didn’t see much to take out of that. They got run over, for one (and Viking threatened to back up the car a couple times), but some things stood out. I thought Sivert Haugli played a strong, confident game, especially with the Viking players a-pillaging; I don’t see Portland has signed him yet, but I hope to see the kid stick somewhere in the organization. Justin Rasmussen, who the Timbers did sign, scored a beauty of a goal, obviously, and he carried the pressure well enough. Based on his resume, I would have liked to see more of that Anor guy, but, just like every other academy kid and trialist that day, he got swallowed up by Viking's press. At this point, I accept talk that Portland got the ball into Viking’s half as unsubstantiated rumors - at least until Portland brought on Yimmi Chara, Dairon Asprilla and Santiago Moreno at the 73rd minute. As I tweeted during the game, seeing the overall level rise that much, and with just three subs, goosed my confidence about the Timbers' chances in the early part of the regular season.

It's just stray notes from there - e.g., I’ve arrived at acceptance that Paredes will do things so quickly and anonymously that I’ll barely see him outside spectacular triumphs/fuck-ups; Yimmi Chara does quiet, yet incredible work to help keep possession and/or the attack going, and, with Mora out, I’m still trying to figure out how Jaroslaw Niezgoda will work as what I assume will be a lone striker. After that, I’d call Claudio Bravo and Tuiloma the stand-out players of the beef jerky tourney and I’m still on the fence as to who I’d like to see start at right back between Josecarlos Van Rankin and Pablo Bonilla, if with a lean toward Bonilla. That’s despite him getting chucked for a two-footed tackle(?!) in preseason against Viking (seriously, who does that?).

Based on all the above, the scheduling gods blessed Portland with a…soft-ish start. It doesn’t start gently - see hosting New England, then traveling to LAFC for Week 2 - but, if you take Orlando’s visit in Week 5 and the Week 10 visit to Colorado out of the equation, the Timbers play mostly manageable schedule - e.g., v Austin in Week 3, at Dallas in Week 4, v the Galaxy Week 6, at Vancouver Week 7, away to Houston Week 8, and home against RSL in Week 9. Call it a couple steps trickier than a cake walk; I’ll be happy if they take half the points from that stretch.

MLS Week 1 Preview/Notes
That’s it for the two main features. I’ll wrap up with some quick notes on the games of interest for MLS Week 1. First up, here’s all of ‘em:

Philadelphia Union v Minnesota United FC
Columbus Crew SC v Vancouver Whitecaps FC
Los Angeles FC v Colorado Rapids
FC Dallas v Toronto FC
Austin FC v FC Cincinnati
DC United v Charlotte FC
Inter Miami CF v Chicago Fire FC
San Jose Earthquakes v Red Bull New York
Portland Timbers v New England Revolution
Orlando City SC v Club du Foot Montreal
Atlanta United FC v Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles Galaxy v New York City FC
Houston Dynamo FC v Real Salt Lake
Seattle Sounders v Nashville FC

I expect revelations will be in short supply, because Week 1 - i.e., there will be the work of finding feet and getting the legs above them into regular season shape, plus growing pains for the revamped/injury-plagued rosters. The goofy/half-pointless match-ups aside - e.g., Dallas v TFC, DC v Charlotte, San Jose v Red Bulls, Houston v RSL and, as much a it pains me to say it Austin v Cincy (I'll care, obviously, but…) - I’m mainly watching to see whether the home/better team can do Elvis proud (i.e., take care of business). To name names, I’d put Philly, Columbus, Orlando, and Seattle in that bucket. It won’t be the end of the world if they lose, or even draw, but those feel like safer bets than the rest.

That leaves LAFC v Colorado, Portland v New England, Atlanta v SKC, the Galaxy v NYCFC and Seattle v Nashville as my Week 1 marquee match-ups. With the exception of the Galaxy, Atlanta and…this stings a bit, Portland, the home teams look like the safer bets to win, but I also believe that each of those visiting teams has it in them to spoil the host’s opening day.

And…yeah, that’s everything for this Weakly/Week 1 preview. Future editions will be considerably shorter and of a different format. I’m still waffling between posting them on Mondays or Wednesdays, but suspect the latter will ultimately win out. Here’s to next weekend, amen.

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