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| Whoa, whoa, whoa. I thought the choice was about kids? |
FC Cincinnati have hired and fired three coaches in as many seasons, not counting the two interim coaches - Yoann Damet and, just last season, Tyrone Marshall - they sacrificed to appease the Soccer Gods who had clearly cursed them. Ron Jans struck me as the most competent, but he turned out to have the social skills of a man born 50 years earlier, and not one of the bright ones, and that became his legacy. With the others, I'd like to entertain the reverse of a thought experiment: I wonder what either Alan Koch or Jaap Stam could do with a better roster - i.e., one not built on a philosophy that parallels a Supermarket Sweep shopping spree of just grabbing shit in a half-conscious panic.
FC Cincy have also tried swinging big on designated players (DP), and at a clip of about two per season during their time in Major League Soccer. The 2020 crop - Jurgen Locadia and Yuya Kubo - was particularly disastrous, even if that only applies to the latter based on what he was hired to do (i.e., generate offense). Luciano Acosta and Brenner Souza da Silva made up Cincinnati’s latest DP class and, even if didn’t mean much to the team’s fortunes writ large, both Acosta and Brenner will almost certainly unseat the current all-time leading scorer, and 2019 DP, Allan Cruz, a couple weeks into 2022. That record, by the way? Nine goals. Nine. Still, trending up every so slightly beats flatlining.
Flatlining describes FC Cincinnati’s history in MLS as well as any word. The phrase “wooden spoon” got thrown at them at the end of every season they’ve spent in the top flight, but it takes surfacing some blunt numbers gets at how hard. Cincinnati has won just...14 games over 2 2/3 season (the 2/3 comes from 2020, when they played just 23 games). That's just north of 15% of the time...ouch, and that earned them a total of 60 points. For perspective, three teams either tied or topped that “haul” in 2021 alone (the Colorado Rapids, the Seattle Sounders and, of course, the record-setting New England Revolution). I’ve obsessed/marveled over their repeated runs at all the wrong single-season records enough that I won't do it again here, but the cold, hard reality is that you can’t dig into Cincinnati’s numbers without hitting a sewer line. While you're down there, here's another one: would you believe Cincinnati produced its worst points per game total (0.59, people) just last season? Hence the point about Brenner, Acosta and fortunes writ large.
They brought in players under the DP threshold, of course, several of them during the 2021 season - e.g., Tyler Blackett, Gustavo Vallecilla, and aging anchor, Geoff Cameron - and they joined others who came in before 2021. Acosta and Brenner headlined that class, but ownership brought in other players - e.g., Isaac Atanga, Alvaro Barreal, and Ronald Matarrita - in the hopes of turning things around somewhere between hell and purgatory. It didn't work, obviously - see the disastrous points per game total mentioned above - but, the older guys notwithstanding (old guys make me antsy, always will), I (at least) believe Cincinnati has improved its roster from Years 1 and 2…though there’s also the fact that they earned their highest points per game in Year 1 (0.76), so what does any of us know, really?
Cincy did call in a few new players for 2022 (not counting the SuperDraftees, who I never count), but the word “transformational” doesn’t apply to any of them. They called in what one could call under-valued assets from the Philadelphia Union - Alvas Powell and Raymon Gaddis - but the former has scrapped for minutes over the last three seasons (Cincy fans remember one of those bleak seasons), and I just found out the latter didn’t play at all in 2021 (injury? please?). They’re also both fullbacks, a position that can add value, but rarely transforms a team. Another signing was Dominique Badji, formerly of the Colorado Rapids, but his career arc tracks the same rough trajectory - e.g., shrinking playing time and lower returns. Cincinnati fans just dying to grasp at straws can celebrate the fact that Badji squeezed five goals into just 319 minutes last season; Cincinnati fans who want to keep drinking from the Slough of Despond can compare Badji’s goals and assists numbers per minute against Brandon Vazquez’s and see that they’re not so different after all (Badji has been good for a goal about once every 263 minutes, Vazquez once every 278; Badji’s assist numbers come in at one per every 587 minutes, while Vazquez hits once every 357). Yeah, yeah. I've pointed to that detail before. It just sticks with me...
I see people getting cranked up on the Alec Kann signing and that’s one of those “you do you” kinds of things for me. Gods know Cincy had nowhere to go but up from last year’s batch of goalkeepers, but, if you take Toronto FC out of the equation (who allowed 66 shameful goals), the defense allowed twenty (20!) more goals than every team but FC Dallas and Austin FC. Mistakes were made, etc., but I don’t see a ‘keeper covering that spread without the defense as a whole improving, like, more than a little.
All that’s to say, the FC Cincinnati has largely opted to stand pat on the roster it started building over the 2021 season. Confident as I am that someone can defend those decisions, that doesn’t change the reality that they put the balance of their chips on their new hires for the General Manager and Head Coaching positions, Chris Albright and Pat Noonan, respectively. So…how’s that going to go?
Barring new signings or fresh ideas from the new coach, they’ll continue to lean on two older players - Cameron and (so far) Haris Medunjanin - to compete in a league where, not to put to fine a point on it, they never have. Unless Noonan can find the formula that frees Cincy from its long-standing Sophie’s Choice of choosing between attacking and getting slaughtered on goals against (e.g., under Damet and Marshall) or defending and basically giving up on three points (under Jans and Stam), and still settling for zero to the point of, again, setting all the wrong kinds of records.
Most Cincy fans I interact with (and my own notes, honestly) see signing an MLS-ready defensive midfielder as the best bet for giving Sophie the win she deserves. Personally, I’ve only seen reports of rumors so far (or rumors of reports), but there’s consensus in my little corner of the world on where Cincy’s most damning limitation resides. In my mind, that’s the kind of signing I'd watch for were I a neutral. The person they call in may not be the moon-shot they need (see: Mokotjo, Kamohelo), but when any team fills a position of need, it's generally worth noting. Yes, even FC Cincy.
The part two of that thought follows from the whole idea of “MLS-ready.” For the first time since I’ve watched them (full disclosure: I’m Class of 2018), 2022 feels like the first season where Cincinnati’s front office has wrapped their heads all the way around the idea that they’re not going to surprise anyone, never mind take the league by storm. Hiring the Albright/Noonan brain-trust at least suggests a shift toward long-term thinking - especially with Dominic Kinnear whispering insights on the league from the shadows. Who knows? Maybe they organize the team to where Brenner’s attacking numbers don’t cancel out Acosta’s.
Did Cincy actually make that choice? Don’t know. What I can say is that choice asks a lot of a fan-base that has had to squint/drink hard in order to find something to celebrate. There’s also the question of how Noonan will do as a coach. If there’s a wild card for the near-term, he’s it. Cincinnati gave up surprisingly (depressingly?) little over the off-season - e.g., Caleb Stanko, Mokotjo, Florian Valot, even Edgar Castillo - which amounts to saying they’ve lost that and gained only a trio of journeymen. If Noonan reaches even 10 wins with the roster Cincy carried over from 2021 - or, dare I dream? a dozen, a total that snuck a couple teams into the 2021 playoffs (e.g., Nashville SC and the Vancouver Whitecaps) - I’m willing to buy into a bright shining future. When February 26 rolls around, there’s nothing left to do but walk toward it. And they could have had a lot taller first steps than Austin...
FC Cincy have also tried swinging big on designated players (DP), and at a clip of about two per season during their time in Major League Soccer. The 2020 crop - Jurgen Locadia and Yuya Kubo - was particularly disastrous, even if that only applies to the latter based on what he was hired to do (i.e., generate offense). Luciano Acosta and Brenner Souza da Silva made up Cincinnati’s latest DP class and, even if didn’t mean much to the team’s fortunes writ large, both Acosta and Brenner will almost certainly unseat the current all-time leading scorer, and 2019 DP, Allan Cruz, a couple weeks into 2022. That record, by the way? Nine goals. Nine. Still, trending up every so slightly beats flatlining.
Flatlining describes FC Cincinnati’s history in MLS as well as any word. The phrase “wooden spoon” got thrown at them at the end of every season they’ve spent in the top flight, but it takes surfacing some blunt numbers gets at how hard. Cincinnati has won just...14 games over 2 2/3 season (the 2/3 comes from 2020, when they played just 23 games). That's just north of 15% of the time...ouch, and that earned them a total of 60 points. For perspective, three teams either tied or topped that “haul” in 2021 alone (the Colorado Rapids, the Seattle Sounders and, of course, the record-setting New England Revolution). I’ve obsessed/marveled over their repeated runs at all the wrong single-season records enough that I won't do it again here, but the cold, hard reality is that you can’t dig into Cincinnati’s numbers without hitting a sewer line. While you're down there, here's another one: would you believe Cincinnati produced its worst points per game total (0.59, people) just last season? Hence the point about Brenner, Acosta and fortunes writ large.
They brought in players under the DP threshold, of course, several of them during the 2021 season - e.g., Tyler Blackett, Gustavo Vallecilla, and aging anchor, Geoff Cameron - and they joined others who came in before 2021. Acosta and Brenner headlined that class, but ownership brought in other players - e.g., Isaac Atanga, Alvaro Barreal, and Ronald Matarrita - in the hopes of turning things around somewhere between hell and purgatory. It didn't work, obviously - see the disastrous points per game total mentioned above - but, the older guys notwithstanding (old guys make me antsy, always will), I (at least) believe Cincinnati has improved its roster from Years 1 and 2…though there’s also the fact that they earned their highest points per game in Year 1 (0.76), so what does any of us know, really?
Cincy did call in a few new players for 2022 (not counting the SuperDraftees, who I never count), but the word “transformational” doesn’t apply to any of them. They called in what one could call under-valued assets from the Philadelphia Union - Alvas Powell and Raymon Gaddis - but the former has scrapped for minutes over the last three seasons (Cincy fans remember one of those bleak seasons), and I just found out the latter didn’t play at all in 2021 (injury? please?). They’re also both fullbacks, a position that can add value, but rarely transforms a team. Another signing was Dominique Badji, formerly of the Colorado Rapids, but his career arc tracks the same rough trajectory - e.g., shrinking playing time and lower returns. Cincinnati fans just dying to grasp at straws can celebrate the fact that Badji squeezed five goals into just 319 minutes last season; Cincinnati fans who want to keep drinking from the Slough of Despond can compare Badji’s goals and assists numbers per minute against Brandon Vazquez’s and see that they’re not so different after all (Badji has been good for a goal about once every 263 minutes, Vazquez once every 278; Badji’s assist numbers come in at one per every 587 minutes, while Vazquez hits once every 357). Yeah, yeah. I've pointed to that detail before. It just sticks with me...
I see people getting cranked up on the Alec Kann signing and that’s one of those “you do you” kinds of things for me. Gods know Cincy had nowhere to go but up from last year’s batch of goalkeepers, but, if you take Toronto FC out of the equation (who allowed 66 shameful goals), the defense allowed twenty (20!) more goals than every team but FC Dallas and Austin FC. Mistakes were made, etc., but I don’t see a ‘keeper covering that spread without the defense as a whole improving, like, more than a little.
All that’s to say, the FC Cincinnati has largely opted to stand pat on the roster it started building over the 2021 season. Confident as I am that someone can defend those decisions, that doesn’t change the reality that they put the balance of their chips on their new hires for the General Manager and Head Coaching positions, Chris Albright and Pat Noonan, respectively. So…how’s that going to go?
Barring new signings or fresh ideas from the new coach, they’ll continue to lean on two older players - Cameron and (so far) Haris Medunjanin - to compete in a league where, not to put to fine a point on it, they never have. Unless Noonan can find the formula that frees Cincy from its long-standing Sophie’s Choice of choosing between attacking and getting slaughtered on goals against (e.g., under Damet and Marshall) or defending and basically giving up on three points (under Jans and Stam), and still settling for zero to the point of, again, setting all the wrong kinds of records.
Most Cincy fans I interact with (and my own notes, honestly) see signing an MLS-ready defensive midfielder as the best bet for giving Sophie the win she deserves. Personally, I’ve only seen reports of rumors so far (or rumors of reports), but there’s consensus in my little corner of the world on where Cincy’s most damning limitation resides. In my mind, that’s the kind of signing I'd watch for were I a neutral. The person they call in may not be the moon-shot they need (see: Mokotjo, Kamohelo), but when any team fills a position of need, it's generally worth noting. Yes, even FC Cincy.
The part two of that thought follows from the whole idea of “MLS-ready.” For the first time since I’ve watched them (full disclosure: I’m Class of 2018), 2022 feels like the first season where Cincinnati’s front office has wrapped their heads all the way around the idea that they’re not going to surprise anyone, never mind take the league by storm. Hiring the Albright/Noonan brain-trust at least suggests a shift toward long-term thinking - especially with Dominic Kinnear whispering insights on the league from the shadows. Who knows? Maybe they organize the team to where Brenner’s attacking numbers don’t cancel out Acosta’s.
Did Cincy actually make that choice? Don’t know. What I can say is that choice asks a lot of a fan-base that has had to squint/drink hard in order to find something to celebrate. There’s also the question of how Noonan will do as a coach. If there’s a wild card for the near-term, he’s it. Cincinnati gave up surprisingly (depressingly?) little over the off-season - e.g., Caleb Stanko, Mokotjo, Florian Valot, even Edgar Castillo - which amounts to saying they’ve lost that and gained only a trio of journeymen. If Noonan reaches even 10 wins with the roster Cincy carried over from 2021 - or, dare I dream? a dozen, a total that snuck a couple teams into the 2021 playoffs (e.g., Nashville SC and the Vancouver Whitecaps) - I’m willing to buy into a bright shining future. When February 26 rolls around, there’s nothing left to do but walk toward it. And they could have had a lot taller first steps than Austin...
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