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| Chaos can be fun. |
I’ve come to the realization that this year’s season previews for both the Portland Timbers and FC Cincinnati will boil down to exactly one question: how they stack up against the teams in their respective conferences. In other words, the real question isn’t how good either team is, but how they stack up against the teams around them. If nothing else, it’s easier to isolate and interrogate that question – especially once you weed out the teams at the top and bottom of expectations.
Not all the pieces to that puzzle have fallen into place, of course – and they won’t until...fuck me, how is it so goddamn hard to find hard dates for the 2023 transfer windows? At any rate, I won’t deliver my best guesses on that until the week before First Kick 2023, but that doesn’t mean you can’t start pulling together the data and working toward that answer.
For instance, does either team, as presently constituted, have a realistic shot at winning the Supporters’ Shield, aka, my personal Holy Grail for the team(s) I follow?
Answer: I like Cincinnati’s chances better than Portland’s right now – just typing that feels crazy, for what it’s worth – but, no, I don’t see either team putting together than kind of season. I’ll wade about knee-deep into specifics below (but not further; too soon), but neither seems within touching distance of such a high level of consistency. Even if one team or the other cleans up in the Summer/Secondary transfer window, I expect that to work as the that little boost of nitrous that gets or keeps them in the playoff picture, not something that keeps them floating over the peons. So, you step down one rung on the ladder.
Could either contend for the 2023 MLS Cup?
First, never say never. Any and all leagues structured around regular season/playoff format hands the participating teams the same fundamental challenge – i.e., can they stay above the bright, immovable line that separates us from them? Once a team clears that first, necessary hurdle, the question turns to how healthy, whole and pulling in the same good and wise direction a given team is when the playoffs arrive. I and dozens of other amateurs used to call this “peaking at the right time,” but I’m swapping that for “having the collective shit together on the key date.”
And, so long as you don’t see you’re team winning the Shield and getting into the 2023 playoffs as the only challenge left standing*, the conversation turns to who (e.g., other teams) or what (e.g., injuries) may keep them out. To narrow that thought a little, I’d like to direct readers’ attention to a pair of quotes from Sam Jones’ "Why Every Team Should Be Excited" article, one for each conference:
“There’s an easy argument to make that Wilfried Nancy has been the best manager in the league over the last two seasons. He got far more out of his CF Montréal roster than most would have. Which is great news for a Crew team that spent the last two seasons getting far less out of their roster than they should have.”
Setting aside the fact I never really “got” Club du Foot Montreal last season, not to mention the delicious subtextual schadenfreude the quote heaps on Caleb Porter (you have my standing permisssion to keep piling on, people), that amounts to an argument that Nancy will make 2023 Columbus Crew SC a better team than last year’s edition. Which matters because Cincinnati ended the 2022 regular season just three points about Columbus, not to mention the playoff line. Next:
“Very few teams were better than SKC down the stretch last season. Seriously, very few teams had more points or better underlying numbers from July onward. That’s largely thanks to how excellent William Agada and Erik Thommy were once they got plugged in. If Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda can get back to form after last year’s season-ending knee injuries, SKC could clear the playoff line. If new No. 6 Nemanja Radoja can make an immediate impact, they could clear it with ease.”
On the one hand, yes, Sporting Kansas City finished six whole points below Portland in 2022. On the other, they got that close after a disastrous running-through-mud-nightmare start to the season. The margins ain’t large, basically, particularly in the middle of each conference. All that’s to say, when I sit down to write final thoughts on Portland and Cincinnati going into the season, visitors to this site should expect something closer to a threat assessment than a preview.
With that, let’s continue walking the path toward, starting nearer and dearer to my heart.
Portland Timbers: Going All-in on the First Round?
“It's been a big offseason for Portland already...”
Has it? I suppose the answer depends on how deeply one believes Evander will cure all that ails them – and, just to note it, the Portland Vanity Soccer podcast’s convo with a Danish fan of FC Midtjylland (which, as it happens, is pronounced something like “Michelin”) made me feel more hopeful around all that (and yet also more depressed about the American healthcare system).
And, so long as you don’t see you’re team winning the Shield and getting into the 2023 playoffs as the only challenge left standing*, the conversation turns to who (e.g., other teams) or what (e.g., injuries) may keep them out. To narrow that thought a little, I’d like to direct readers’ attention to a pair of quotes from Sam Jones’ "Why Every Team Should Be Excited" article, one for each conference:
“There’s an easy argument to make that Wilfried Nancy has been the best manager in the league over the last two seasons. He got far more out of his CF Montréal roster than most would have. Which is great news for a Crew team that spent the last two seasons getting far less out of their roster than they should have.”
Setting aside the fact I never really “got” Club du Foot Montreal last season, not to mention the delicious subtextual schadenfreude the quote heaps on Caleb Porter (you have my standing permisssion to keep piling on, people), that amounts to an argument that Nancy will make 2023 Columbus Crew SC a better team than last year’s edition. Which matters because Cincinnati ended the 2022 regular season just three points about Columbus, not to mention the playoff line. Next:
“Very few teams were better than SKC down the stretch last season. Seriously, very few teams had more points or better underlying numbers from July onward. That’s largely thanks to how excellent William Agada and Erik Thommy were once they got plugged in. If Alan Pulido and Gadi Kinda can get back to form after last year’s season-ending knee injuries, SKC could clear the playoff line. If new No. 6 Nemanja Radoja can make an immediate impact, they could clear it with ease.”
On the one hand, yes, Sporting Kansas City finished six whole points below Portland in 2022. On the other, they got that close after a disastrous running-through-mud-nightmare start to the season. The margins ain’t large, basically, particularly in the middle of each conference. All that’s to say, when I sit down to write final thoughts on Portland and Cincinnati going into the season, visitors to this site should expect something closer to a threat assessment than a preview.
With that, let’s continue walking the path toward, starting nearer and dearer to my heart.
Portland Timbers: Going All-in on the First Round?
“It's been a big offseason for Portland already...”
Has it? I suppose the answer depends on how deeply one believes Evander will cure all that ails them – and, just to note it, the Portland Vanity Soccer podcast’s convo with a Danish fan of FC Midtjylland (which, as it happens, is pronounced something like “Michelin”) made me feel more hopeful around all that (and yet also more depressed about the American healthcare system).
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| The fine art of being prepared... |
Looking at the picture from the other side, one can read “hey, did you hear that Ned Grabavoy got promoted?” as an alternate spelling for “slow news week.” And as much as I love his amped-up puppy enthusiasm, I can’t see the freshly re-signed Nathan Fogaca provide Evander with the foil he needs to become his very best handsomest self. Related very much thereto, plenty of people flagged this quote from Ned Grabavoy’s debut presser as the Timbers’ new, now-less-tainted GM:
“And from there I think we are a bit limited right now just in terms of where we're at with the cap and roster slots.”
One translation of that same line reads, “the cavalry has already arrived and it’s just one dude.” Some chatter about signing a young-DP forward comes up in that same article, but press conferences, not unlike new signings, speak more to aspiration than reality. If you argue Portland has more than one area of concern, I don’t think you’ll get much for pushback. Moreover, the failure of last season – and missing the playoffs is failure in MLS – followed from the absence of any clear strength - i.e., the offense didn’t have the quality to bail out the defense and vice versa. As such, Evander feels like a singular, all-in gamble on hoping the offense can carry the team in 2023. In other words, hold on to your underwear, people, and maybe consider packing an extra pair.
FC Cincinnati: The Latest Tugs at the Jenga Tower
Reports of credible offers for Brenner (from Italy’s Udinese) surfaced the second half of last week, as did reports that Luciano Acosta didn’t show up to camp. Now, losing Brenner would leave a mark, but to lose both of those players on the very cusp of “go time”? That’s starting the season in urgent care, at a minimum, with a potential visit to the ER lurking in the background. Taking a combined 28 goals and 25 assists out of last season’s offense is a hell of a risk for any team, but it borders on madness for a team that only recently parted ways with a Wooden Spoon that seemed stuck to their hands.
Fortunately, the team has made (or will shortly/reportedly make) some smart signings – e.g., Marco Angulo and (wait for it) the experienced right back Santiago Arias (formerly of Atletico Madrid) – but it takes a religiously glass half-full state of mind to see those players replacing those kinds of numbers. And, sure, if Brenner departs he’ll leave behind an open slot and a fat bag of ready cash, but Cincy would still lose a chunk of the season finding a replacement – which, it bears noting, presumes they can find even 2/3 of that output – and getting him up to speed. And, obviously, the same problem/dynamic immediately multiplies should Acosta leave as well.
Long story short, my confidence that FC Cincinnati can stay afloat (i.e., over the playoff line), never mind take that long-lusted-after step forward, hinges on at least one of those players staying around. And that still leaves a wafer-thin back-line to address, especially with the 2023 campaign starting with an, at best, recovering Matt Miazga.
“And from there I think we are a bit limited right now just in terms of where we're at with the cap and roster slots.”
One translation of that same line reads, “the cavalry has already arrived and it’s just one dude.” Some chatter about signing a young-DP forward comes up in that same article, but press conferences, not unlike new signings, speak more to aspiration than reality. If you argue Portland has more than one area of concern, I don’t think you’ll get much for pushback. Moreover, the failure of last season – and missing the playoffs is failure in MLS – followed from the absence of any clear strength - i.e., the offense didn’t have the quality to bail out the defense and vice versa. As such, Evander feels like a singular, all-in gamble on hoping the offense can carry the team in 2023. In other words, hold on to your underwear, people, and maybe consider packing an extra pair.
FC Cincinnati: The Latest Tugs at the Jenga Tower
Reports of credible offers for Brenner (from Italy’s Udinese) surfaced the second half of last week, as did reports that Luciano Acosta didn’t show up to camp. Now, losing Brenner would leave a mark, but to lose both of those players on the very cusp of “go time”? That’s starting the season in urgent care, at a minimum, with a potential visit to the ER lurking in the background. Taking a combined 28 goals and 25 assists out of last season’s offense is a hell of a risk for any team, but it borders on madness for a team that only recently parted ways with a Wooden Spoon that seemed stuck to their hands.
Fortunately, the team has made (or will shortly/reportedly make) some smart signings – e.g., Marco Angulo and (wait for it) the experienced right back Santiago Arias (formerly of Atletico Madrid) – but it takes a religiously glass half-full state of mind to see those players replacing those kinds of numbers. And, sure, if Brenner departs he’ll leave behind an open slot and a fat bag of ready cash, but Cincy would still lose a chunk of the season finding a replacement – which, it bears noting, presumes they can find even 2/3 of that output – and getting him up to speed. And, obviously, the same problem/dynamic immediately multiplies should Acosta leave as well.
Long story short, my confidence that FC Cincinnati can stay afloat (i.e., over the playoff line), never mind take that long-lusted-after step forward, hinges on at least one of those players staying around. And that still leaves a wafer-thin back-line to address, especially with the 2023 campaign starting with an, at best, recovering Matt Miazga.
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| This is incorrect. |
Speaking solely for myself, I’d like to see Cincy try to keep the whole damn gang together. Unless Brenner regresses to the point of collapse, his value should hold; I’d go so far as to say another season in a familiar productive system could boost his value. As a thought exercise, think of what missing the 2023 playoffs would do to Cincinnati from a psychological/team culture point of view – particularly given the conversation around their potential for 2023. Bottom line, soberly size up the risks before you take them, Mssrs. Albright and Noonan.
That’s it for the chunky stuff. I’ll close with some loose commentary on points of interest around MLS.
I was happy to see that Kei Kamara asking for an exit out of Montreal didn’t last more than a day. Dude wants a new job. No biggie.
I’ll be damned if Houston Dynamo FC hasn’t lured me back to the Three-Card Monte table with a rebuild that builds on last season’s rebuild. They’re signing eye-catching young players (Ivan Franco and, potentially, Amine Bassi), which brightens their future (or could), on top of all the trading (e.g., Artur, from Columbus) and smart reclamation projects (e.g., Brad Smith). The weight of their recent history pulls at my ears like friends telling me to walk away, but...I’m pretty sure it’s the card on the left. Also, and related to the preamble, I should not want Houston to become competent, never mind good.
How many of you saw that combined statement by the Los Angeles Galaxy’s supporters’ groups? Something about not showing up until the front office clears out Chris Klein’s desk? I don’t know if that’s panic or disappointment I’m smelling, but the fragrance as sweet and welcome.
Speaking of rebuilds, Orlando City SC signed Argentinian winger Martin Ojeda. He hails from a club I’ve never heard of (not a wholly rare thing), but he’s also nearing the sweet spot of his career (he’s 24). They returned enough of their core to avoid regression, at least on paper, and an Orlando team that could score would be something.
I’ve come to think of Real Salt Lake as the racoon of MLS – i.e., something you don’t exactly fear, but also something wiser teams won’t want to mess with – an impression that the potential(?) new signing Andres Gomez didn’t change. He looks like he’s 12, for one, but good luck to him and them.
It looks like Charlotte FC went big at the forward position with the signing of Enzo “El Tanque” Copetti. I love/hate the ambition.
Sticking with strikers, the sad spectacle of Nashville SC loaning Ake Loba, aka, the Nashville Albatross to Mazatlan FC while still having to pony up for his salary? Comedy!
Finally, Sam Jones had a lot to say about DC United’s rebuild over the past week. This first quote comes from his “Why Every Team Should Be Worried as 2023 Preseason Begins”:
“D.C. United’s offseason strategy so far has been ‘How would America’s best Men’s Over 30 team do in MLS?’”
That allusion to “experience” conforms to the narrative that DC is operating on a “win-now” philosophy. I get that Jones is doing a funny (and I like his funnies), but how well does that line hold up against this later passage from his Kickoff newsletter:
“32-year-old Mateusz Klich is on his way as a Designated Player. He'll join 32-year-old Christian Benteke and 27-year-old Taxi Fountas as DPs. Klich is one of a handful of new players joining D.C. United this season, including 29-year-old Tyler Miller, 27-year-old Ruan, 34-year-old Pedro Santos, 29-year-old Derrick Williams, 31-year-old Victor Palsson, and the youthful and vibrant 25-year-old Mohanad Jeahze.”
“Look, none of this is to comment on the ability of these guys. But you do have to wonder how sustainable any of this is. And how well a team predicated on older players will handle an MLS summer of heat and travel.”
I freak out over aging players more than most (see: Chara, Diego), but I don’t see a massive downside in fielding a team clustered around 30 – especially under a “win-now” philosophy. They’ll have to replace all that before long, of course, at least if they want to continue as a competitive concern...
...though I also can’t argue that a struggling DC gives Cincy one less team to play through.
That’s it for this week. Till the next one...and please start kicking things.
That’s it for the chunky stuff. I’ll close with some loose commentary on points of interest around MLS.
I was happy to see that Kei Kamara asking for an exit out of Montreal didn’t last more than a day. Dude wants a new job. No biggie.
I’ll be damned if Houston Dynamo FC hasn’t lured me back to the Three-Card Monte table with a rebuild that builds on last season’s rebuild. They’re signing eye-catching young players (Ivan Franco and, potentially, Amine Bassi), which brightens their future (or could), on top of all the trading (e.g., Artur, from Columbus) and smart reclamation projects (e.g., Brad Smith). The weight of their recent history pulls at my ears like friends telling me to walk away, but...I’m pretty sure it’s the card on the left. Also, and related to the preamble, I should not want Houston to become competent, never mind good.
How many of you saw that combined statement by the Los Angeles Galaxy’s supporters’ groups? Something about not showing up until the front office clears out Chris Klein’s desk? I don’t know if that’s panic or disappointment I’m smelling, but the fragrance as sweet and welcome.
Speaking of rebuilds, Orlando City SC signed Argentinian winger Martin Ojeda. He hails from a club I’ve never heard of (not a wholly rare thing), but he’s also nearing the sweet spot of his career (he’s 24). They returned enough of their core to avoid regression, at least on paper, and an Orlando team that could score would be something.
I’ve come to think of Real Salt Lake as the racoon of MLS – i.e., something you don’t exactly fear, but also something wiser teams won’t want to mess with – an impression that the potential(?) new signing Andres Gomez didn’t change. He looks like he’s 12, for one, but good luck to him and them.
It looks like Charlotte FC went big at the forward position with the signing of Enzo “El Tanque” Copetti. I love/hate the ambition.
Sticking with strikers, the sad spectacle of Nashville SC loaning Ake Loba, aka, the Nashville Albatross to Mazatlan FC while still having to pony up for his salary? Comedy!
Finally, Sam Jones had a lot to say about DC United’s rebuild over the past week. This first quote comes from his “Why Every Team Should Be Worried as 2023 Preseason Begins”:
“D.C. United’s offseason strategy so far has been ‘How would America’s best Men’s Over 30 team do in MLS?’”
That allusion to “experience” conforms to the narrative that DC is operating on a “win-now” philosophy. I get that Jones is doing a funny (and I like his funnies), but how well does that line hold up against this later passage from his Kickoff newsletter:
“32-year-old Mateusz Klich is on his way as a Designated Player. He'll join 32-year-old Christian Benteke and 27-year-old Taxi Fountas as DPs. Klich is one of a handful of new players joining D.C. United this season, including 29-year-old Tyler Miller, 27-year-old Ruan, 34-year-old Pedro Santos, 29-year-old Derrick Williams, 31-year-old Victor Palsson, and the youthful and vibrant 25-year-old Mohanad Jeahze.”
“Look, none of this is to comment on the ability of these guys. But you do have to wonder how sustainable any of this is. And how well a team predicated on older players will handle an MLS summer of heat and travel.”
I freak out over aging players more than most (see: Chara, Diego), but I don’t see a massive downside in fielding a team clustered around 30 – especially under a “win-now” philosophy. They’ll have to replace all that before long, of course, at least if they want to continue as a competitive concern...
...though I also can’t argue that a struggling DC gives Cincy one less team to play through.
That’s it for this week. Till the next one...and please start kicking things.
* Yeah, yeah. The U.S. Open Cup. I'll start caring when MLS teams start caring. It takes seeing the finish line for any of them to get excited. Also, they need to stop playing the same damn teams every edition. Spice it up, U.S. Soccer, and help the minnows with travel expenses.
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