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| So bright you gotta wear shades... |
The turning of the calendar feels like a good time to start to wrap the head around Major League Soccer’s 2023 season. Before I get started a warning: very little of what comes below will constitute “news” to your more devoted followers of the league. To put that another way, this is a post for people who follow the league like me – e.g., those who can say, “Oh, I’ve heard to that guy” when a good/rising player’s name comes up, but who can’t drop (literally) all the relevant stats.
For the people who drop in for notes on either FC Cincinnati or the Portland Timbers, you’ll find those at the end, and in that order. I wanted to start with the big picture. With that, let’s get those fingers framed and get things into focus.
Thanks to all the baggage and clutter around the 2022 season – there, I’m thinking of a luridly tainted (yet mostly satisfying) 2022 World Cup and the rolling scandals that clouded the Timbers season and cleaned out (most, but not all) of the front office - I want the 2023 MLS season to be both as good and as normal as possible. And, there, I’m optimistic: just having the playoffs feel less rushed and, without a looming World Cup as a distraction, less like an opening act begging a restless crowd to let them reach the end of their set. That should help the 2023 MLS Playoffs feel like the closing event of the domestic soccer calendar all on its own. Now...what else?
The new [Apple]+ TV deal will be in place, for one. I’ve seen some gripes about the cost – and, now that I no longer have SlingTV, I’m feeling the slings ‘n’ arrows of the exclusivity (e.g., my access to random soccer leagues has cratered) – and I fully sympathize with anyone who either can’t or won’t find a path to squeezing that into his/her/their personal budget. Speaking solely for myself, I calculate the real cost of things by breaking things down into individual units. What I mean by that is, even at the highest subscription rate - $99 for a full year – you’re looking at $3.30 per game to watch every game for any given team and, unless they’re blowing smoke up my ass or it’s getting lost in the other smoke, you get to watch it on your time, however and often you want. And if you’re like me and like to follow two teams, that cuts your per-game cost in half. Bottom line, the way you value MLS’s new TV deal tracks almost perfectly with the number of games you want to watch.
That’s to say, I like that and it makes me happy. Now, for some things I don’t like.
Before getting into that, how many of you have ever read the Mothership’s Competition Guidelines page in its entirety? My hand is not up, for the record, but also, holy micro-managing shit. Despite sitting down determined to make it through every word, I tapped out on Parameter 3 under the “MLS Disciplinary Committee” subheading. I mean, I get limiting the number of players a team can field and carry on the bench, but, gods, who could possibly give a shit about the number and proportion of staffers (please don’t answer that; you’ll find a hostile audience)? And the requirement – requirement! – that the home team replace the Ball Stand Equipment immediately in the event of damage? How do you not tap out?
At any rate, I just caught the conspicuous “2022” in front of “MLS Competition Guidelines” on that webpage, which, so far as I know means that the Mothership has yet to update it - which, in turns, means MLS fans may yet be treated to/tortured by a playoff format built around the “World Cup concept” of a round-robin playoff system. That, along with the number of teams that will make the 2023 playoffs strikes me as a pretty goddamn major detail, so I’m a little anxious to see that hasn’t yet been nailed to the ground. As such, that looks like commentary for a future Weakly...
Very much related to, I don’t like the size of the conferences. Fifteen teams comes perilously close to a whole goddamn league in my mind, and to run two parallel leagues side by side, only with some interaction...I just don’t like it. Last I heard, the league has pegged expansion to stop at 30 teams and, but so long as you’re going to adopt a “World Cup concept” playoff system, why push the total number of teams in the league to 32 teams, split into four conferences? That lets you run with a shorter regular season – say, 30 games, three games against each team in a team’s conference (21), plus, oh, nine random games outside (to whet the appetite of fans in the other conferences). That set up, as I see it, gives fans a set of teams to really know and focus on, but with a big enough taste of what's going on in the rest of the league to keep the future equal parts proximate and exotic. It just seems...cleaner to me. Anyhoo, we’ll have the number of teams we have in 2022, along with the attendant structure, so let's stuff those fantasies down with the rest of the happy thoughts and move on.
I finally looked at the calendar of games/events coming up and see preseason is just five days away from time of posting. Actual preseason – i.e., games against other teams inside and outside the league – doesn’t start until two weeks (or more) later, which brings me to another item on my wish-list for 2023: that teams won’t be so pointlessly fucking stingy about live streaming (or even archiving, for people with lives, wives, dogs, cats, and kids) all their preseason games. Speaking strictly to the Timbers situation, if I were Merritt Paulson and the rump of his brain trust, I would shamelessly curry favor with Timbers fans...and a dunking booth before every game followed by an apology would very much be on the table. Bottom line, I have not one damn idea why teams don’t give fans free access to preseason games, if just to get the speculative juices and chatter flowing.
For the people who drop in for notes on either FC Cincinnati or the Portland Timbers, you’ll find those at the end, and in that order. I wanted to start with the big picture. With that, let’s get those fingers framed and get things into focus.
Thanks to all the baggage and clutter around the 2022 season – there, I’m thinking of a luridly tainted (yet mostly satisfying) 2022 World Cup and the rolling scandals that clouded the Timbers season and cleaned out (most, but not all) of the front office - I want the 2023 MLS season to be both as good and as normal as possible. And, there, I’m optimistic: just having the playoffs feel less rushed and, without a looming World Cup as a distraction, less like an opening act begging a restless crowd to let them reach the end of their set. That should help the 2023 MLS Playoffs feel like the closing event of the domestic soccer calendar all on its own. Now...what else?
The new [Apple]+ TV deal will be in place, for one. I’ve seen some gripes about the cost – and, now that I no longer have SlingTV, I’m feeling the slings ‘n’ arrows of the exclusivity (e.g., my access to random soccer leagues has cratered) – and I fully sympathize with anyone who either can’t or won’t find a path to squeezing that into his/her/their personal budget. Speaking solely for myself, I calculate the real cost of things by breaking things down into individual units. What I mean by that is, even at the highest subscription rate - $99 for a full year – you’re looking at $3.30 per game to watch every game for any given team and, unless they’re blowing smoke up my ass or it’s getting lost in the other smoke, you get to watch it on your time, however and often you want. And if you’re like me and like to follow two teams, that cuts your per-game cost in half. Bottom line, the way you value MLS’s new TV deal tracks almost perfectly with the number of games you want to watch.
That’s to say, I like that and it makes me happy. Now, for some things I don’t like.
Before getting into that, how many of you have ever read the Mothership’s Competition Guidelines page in its entirety? My hand is not up, for the record, but also, holy micro-managing shit. Despite sitting down determined to make it through every word, I tapped out on Parameter 3 under the “MLS Disciplinary Committee” subheading. I mean, I get limiting the number of players a team can field and carry on the bench, but, gods, who could possibly give a shit about the number and proportion of staffers (please don’t answer that; you’ll find a hostile audience)? And the requirement – requirement! – that the home team replace the Ball Stand Equipment immediately in the event of damage? How do you not tap out?
At any rate, I just caught the conspicuous “2022” in front of “MLS Competition Guidelines” on that webpage, which, so far as I know means that the Mothership has yet to update it - which, in turns, means MLS fans may yet be treated to/tortured by a playoff format built around the “World Cup concept” of a round-robin playoff system. That, along with the number of teams that will make the 2023 playoffs strikes me as a pretty goddamn major detail, so I’m a little anxious to see that hasn’t yet been nailed to the ground. As such, that looks like commentary for a future Weakly...
Very much related to, I don’t like the size of the conferences. Fifteen teams comes perilously close to a whole goddamn league in my mind, and to run two parallel leagues side by side, only with some interaction...I just don’t like it. Last I heard, the league has pegged expansion to stop at 30 teams and, but so long as you’re going to adopt a “World Cup concept” playoff system, why push the total number of teams in the league to 32 teams, split into four conferences? That lets you run with a shorter regular season – say, 30 games, three games against each team in a team’s conference (21), plus, oh, nine random games outside (to whet the appetite of fans in the other conferences). That set up, as I see it, gives fans a set of teams to really know and focus on, but with a big enough taste of what's going on in the rest of the league to keep the future equal parts proximate and exotic. It just seems...cleaner to me. Anyhoo, we’ll have the number of teams we have in 2022, along with the attendant structure, so let's stuff those fantasies down with the rest of the happy thoughts and move on.
I finally looked at the calendar of games/events coming up and see preseason is just five days away from time of posting. Actual preseason – i.e., games against other teams inside and outside the league – doesn’t start until two weeks (or more) later, which brings me to another item on my wish-list for 2023: that teams won’t be so pointlessly fucking stingy about live streaming (or even archiving, for people with lives, wives, dogs, cats, and kids) all their preseason games. Speaking strictly to the Timbers situation, if I were Merritt Paulson and the rump of his brain trust, I would shamelessly curry favor with Timbers fans...and a dunking booth before every game followed by an apology would very much be on the table. Bottom line, I have not one damn idea why teams don’t give fans free access to preseason games, if just to get the speculative juices and chatter flowing.
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| Philly and LAFC last season |
Moving on (finally) to what I hope to see on the field in 2023, I hope to see a little more competition at or around the top of the table. Whatever you thought of last year’s playoffs, they underscored the reality that the season produced just two great teams – e.g., the Philadelphia Union and Los Angeles FC – who ultimately and rightly met in an MLS Cup for the ages. Sure, they both struggled in their respective conference semifinals, but the gap in real, persistent quality opened up all over again in the conference finals. So, first things first, I hope to see the 2023 season ends with more teams looking like actual contenders, if just to get past the whole, “Eric Burdon and the Animals” or “Harold Melvin & the Blue Notes, ft. Teddy Pendergrass” vibe. And that’s regardless of playoff format.
About that, some teams will have more to overcome than others to make that happen. In the last post to this site, I looked at where each team in the league finished in every season (in which they participated) since 2010. Fun historical shit aside (srsly, solid preamble), the point of the exercise was to seek out deeper trends in teams’ histories that keeps them from being one or two players away from actively competing for the title. To give a couple examples, a top-shelf signing for DC United feels like a safer bet to steer them to a brighter future than the same for, say, Houston Dynamo FC or the San Jose Earthquakes - even if by a narrow margin. Both the latter have been down long enough that it should take two good seasons at a very real minimum before anyone takes them as seriously as people should take Philly, LAFC, or even “lesser” reliable sides like, to give three late examples, Minnesota United FC, Nashville SC, or even Orlando City SC. There are other questions – e.g., how do genuinely consistent teams like FC Dallas and Red Bull New York take the next step, or whether Sporting Kansas City can get back to the fringes of league-elite? – and I feel it has finally become wise to let history, both old and new, provide some part of the answer. MLS is grown, y’all.
All that brings me to the conclusion of this post, i.e., what I hope to see from the two teams I follow and/or most love in all of Major League Soccer, FC Cincinnati and the Portland Timbers. It should go without saying that I’d like one of them to win either MLS Cup or the Supporters’ Shield (and would the coolest season ever end with each of them holding one of them?), obviously, but I want to keep all this in the realm of the likely, which I’m contractually compelled to note, has no real bearing on what’s possible. Starting with the original hometown...
FC Cincinnati
What I Want Most
An actual winning season, i.e., a game where the number of wins tops both the number of draws and losses.
How That Stacks Up Against...You Know, Everything
First up, The Organization answered a key part on my 2023 wish-list when they signed Marco Angulo. From the review/preview post that went up last November:
“If Albright gave me the keys to the rebuild and gave Pat Noonan (who has done a damn fine job, in my mind) a veto on any idiocies, I’d try to find my unicorn No. 8, and sign a promising replacement for Cameron and a back-up for Powell that projects to defend well and has the final-pass upside he doesn’t.”
I have no idea whether or how well Angulo will fit that idealized role; I’m mostly heartened to see that Cincy’s front office and I aligned on priorities. A glance at the current roster tells me a lot of the things brought up in that review/preview have not yet been addressed – e.g., whether the team returns Brandon Vazquez, Brenner, either or both – but, so long as both stay around, I expect another playoff-competitive season out of Cincinnati.
The answer to that turns on whether they can turn at least some of 2022’s thirteen draws – games I praised in the review/preview as evidence that Cincy could hang with most of the league, and I stand by that – into wins. I see soccer as a constant struggle between your team getting a good thing going and other teams figuring out how to stop or contain it. I think Cincy has players capable of keeping that from happening – e.g., the way Vazquez can both hold the ball and run in behind wrecks havoc, as does Brenner...somehow – but that’s where a player like Angulo comes in. If he adds even one more dimension to Cincy’s attack, and does it in a way that allows the team to keep its shape, Cincinnati could be really good next season...
...which I can’t say for the...
Portland Timbers
What I Want Most
For them to be interesting. Instead of maddening.
How That Stacks Up Against...You Know Everything
I wish with all my heart that I could stop talking about the front office, but the fuss will hang over the team until Merritt Paulson leaves or a sizeable and, as I see it, correct collective of fans stops declaiming his sins to the world and gives up. Among the dozen thoughts I have on thought, the likeliest path that sees Merritt selling the club ends with someone no less reprehensible buying him out. What else can I do besides draw a Venn diagram that encompasses members of the very wealthy and people who own sports teams and say that wealthy people tend to be psychopaths? That’s to say, I baked in hating the ownership and distrusting the management when I bought season tickets back when...
As for the day-to-day of following the Timbers, I’m pretty damn antsy about the 2023 season. Worst case, I expect a repeat of 2022 – i.e., a team biting after playoff scraps, and with a scavenger’s chance of getting them – but still-worse cases lurk beyond the light of the fire. In one scenario, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Timbers gamble another season on last year’s center backs, only with Diego Chara’s legs finally giving out. As noted in the second of two reviews after the 2022 season (here's the first, for the bored), Timbers fans got a glimpse of a future without Chara in last season’s playoff play‑in v RSL and I know I don’t want to look at that for long. I appreciate/respect that Portland either will or should (once Gio gets over from whatever’s up his ass) have Eryk Williamson in midfield next season, but because he’s not an heir apparent to Chara’s field/space-chewing defensive work, I’ll remain...let’s call it dubious, leaning pessimistic about the Timbers’ defense heading into 2023. Barring a new signing that isn’t Zac McGraw (thankfully) re-upping.
To lay my cards on the table, and with neither shame nor embarrassment, I’d give away the playoffs to watch an entertaining attacking team fall short in a succession of end-to-end, throw-yer-skivvies-to-the-wind games. More than anything else, I just want to enjoy watching this team again – something I can’t say I’ve felt since Diego Valeri’s better days.
Portland splashed the cash to sign Evander and that, if nothing else, that tells you they tried. Love ‘em, hate ‘em, they tried. Also, won’t lie: count me genuinely impressed by a couple passes I saw in the highlight/promo real, because those are the passes that break a defense (but also maybe tighten up that video by culling the celebrations?)...but that’s still downstream from the troubles at the sharpest end of the Timbers attack. Simply put, the Timbers don't have a reliably ruthless finisher, which they'll need if they hope to mingle with the elite. If Evander can provide that – and, here, that means even a 10 goal, 10 assist season or thereabouts – that should make Portland both good and interesting. If he can’t – moreover, if the defense sucks – the Timbers will still need that elite striker to keep up with the Joneses. Plus a starting quality center back. When one need fails, the other grows more urgent, etc.
Until further notice and finalized singings, I’m still seeing a transition season for the Timbers.
That’s it for this one. Till the next Weakly. Which I don’t anticipate putting out till mid-January.
About that, some teams will have more to overcome than others to make that happen. In the last post to this site, I looked at where each team in the league finished in every season (in which they participated) since 2010. Fun historical shit aside (srsly, solid preamble), the point of the exercise was to seek out deeper trends in teams’ histories that keeps them from being one or two players away from actively competing for the title. To give a couple examples, a top-shelf signing for DC United feels like a safer bet to steer them to a brighter future than the same for, say, Houston Dynamo FC or the San Jose Earthquakes - even if by a narrow margin. Both the latter have been down long enough that it should take two good seasons at a very real minimum before anyone takes them as seriously as people should take Philly, LAFC, or even “lesser” reliable sides like, to give three late examples, Minnesota United FC, Nashville SC, or even Orlando City SC. There are other questions – e.g., how do genuinely consistent teams like FC Dallas and Red Bull New York take the next step, or whether Sporting Kansas City can get back to the fringes of league-elite? – and I feel it has finally become wise to let history, both old and new, provide some part of the answer. MLS is grown, y’all.
All that brings me to the conclusion of this post, i.e., what I hope to see from the two teams I follow and/or most love in all of Major League Soccer, FC Cincinnati and the Portland Timbers. It should go without saying that I’d like one of them to win either MLS Cup or the Supporters’ Shield (and would the coolest season ever end with each of them holding one of them?), obviously, but I want to keep all this in the realm of the likely, which I’m contractually compelled to note, has no real bearing on what’s possible. Starting with the original hometown...
FC Cincinnati
What I Want Most
An actual winning season, i.e., a game where the number of wins tops both the number of draws and losses.
How That Stacks Up Against...You Know, Everything
First up, The Organization answered a key part on my 2023 wish-list when they signed Marco Angulo. From the review/preview post that went up last November:
“If Albright gave me the keys to the rebuild and gave Pat Noonan (who has done a damn fine job, in my mind) a veto on any idiocies, I’d try to find my unicorn No. 8, and sign a promising replacement for Cameron and a back-up for Powell that projects to defend well and has the final-pass upside he doesn’t.”
I have no idea whether or how well Angulo will fit that idealized role; I’m mostly heartened to see that Cincy’s front office and I aligned on priorities. A glance at the current roster tells me a lot of the things brought up in that review/preview have not yet been addressed – e.g., whether the team returns Brandon Vazquez, Brenner, either or both – but, so long as both stay around, I expect another playoff-competitive season out of Cincinnati.
The answer to that turns on whether they can turn at least some of 2022’s thirteen draws – games I praised in the review/preview as evidence that Cincy could hang with most of the league, and I stand by that – into wins. I see soccer as a constant struggle between your team getting a good thing going and other teams figuring out how to stop or contain it. I think Cincy has players capable of keeping that from happening – e.g., the way Vazquez can both hold the ball and run in behind wrecks havoc, as does Brenner...somehow – but that’s where a player like Angulo comes in. If he adds even one more dimension to Cincy’s attack, and does it in a way that allows the team to keep its shape, Cincinnati could be really good next season...
...which I can’t say for the...
Portland Timbers
What I Want Most
For them to be interesting. Instead of maddening.
How That Stacks Up Against...You Know Everything
I wish with all my heart that I could stop talking about the front office, but the fuss will hang over the team until Merritt Paulson leaves or a sizeable and, as I see it, correct collective of fans stops declaiming his sins to the world and gives up. Among the dozen thoughts I have on thought, the likeliest path that sees Merritt selling the club ends with someone no less reprehensible buying him out. What else can I do besides draw a Venn diagram that encompasses members of the very wealthy and people who own sports teams and say that wealthy people tend to be psychopaths? That’s to say, I baked in hating the ownership and distrusting the management when I bought season tickets back when...
As for the day-to-day of following the Timbers, I’m pretty damn antsy about the 2023 season. Worst case, I expect a repeat of 2022 – i.e., a team biting after playoff scraps, and with a scavenger’s chance of getting them – but still-worse cases lurk beyond the light of the fire. In one scenario, it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Timbers gamble another season on last year’s center backs, only with Diego Chara’s legs finally giving out. As noted in the second of two reviews after the 2022 season (here's the first, for the bored), Timbers fans got a glimpse of a future without Chara in last season’s playoff play‑in v RSL and I know I don’t want to look at that for long. I appreciate/respect that Portland either will or should (once Gio gets over from whatever’s up his ass) have Eryk Williamson in midfield next season, but because he’s not an heir apparent to Chara’s field/space-chewing defensive work, I’ll remain...let’s call it dubious, leaning pessimistic about the Timbers’ defense heading into 2023. Barring a new signing that isn’t Zac McGraw (thankfully) re-upping.
To lay my cards on the table, and with neither shame nor embarrassment, I’d give away the playoffs to watch an entertaining attacking team fall short in a succession of end-to-end, throw-yer-skivvies-to-the-wind games. More than anything else, I just want to enjoy watching this team again – something I can’t say I’ve felt since Diego Valeri’s better days.
Portland splashed the cash to sign Evander and that, if nothing else, that tells you they tried. Love ‘em, hate ‘em, they tried. Also, won’t lie: count me genuinely impressed by a couple passes I saw in the highlight/promo real, because those are the passes that break a defense (but also maybe tighten up that video by culling the celebrations?)...but that’s still downstream from the troubles at the sharpest end of the Timbers attack. Simply put, the Timbers don't have a reliably ruthless finisher, which they'll need if they hope to mingle with the elite. If Evander can provide that – and, here, that means even a 10 goal, 10 assist season or thereabouts – that should make Portland both good and interesting. If he can’t – moreover, if the defense sucks – the Timbers will still need that elite striker to keep up with the Joneses. Plus a starting quality center back. When one need fails, the other grows more urgent, etc.
Until further notice and finalized singings, I’m still seeing a transition season for the Timbers.
That’s it for this one. Till the next Weakly. Which I don’t anticipate putting out till mid-January.
Re. your comments on 2023 league size- I think the league will stop at the NFL standard - 32. CEO Garber comes from that world and may think that 32 is the calculated magic number when running a franchise league.
ReplyDeleteAnd I admit to being spoiled by the first decade of the Timber's MLS experience with scheduling. I don't want to know RSL, SJ and KC better by endless in-conference matches with them. I want to see those exotic east-of-the-Mississippi teams on a regular basis. The EPL model with home and aways with every team looks so attractive - and works because half the away matches in their 20-team league are only a motor coach ride away.
And what do you think that the Apple broadcast deal will do to league-wide attendance - if anything? As a STH with free Apple MLS, will I slump onto my couch more often instead heading for the third-world ambience of downtown Portland? It'll be interesting how traditional stadium attendees use their virtual access to all the matches. Will the new norm for a typical home game be 15k at the stadium and big living room couch numbers?
Ooh, good point on who would actually be in the conference with Portland. Odds are, it wouldn't be so different - e.g., Cascadia and RSL and SJ already figure pretty heavily on the schedule, so more of seems likely. I can see the familiarity creating sharper competition within the conferences, but it's painfully hard to argue that either SJ or RSL have shown much interest in taking truly big swings.
ReplyDeleteAs for the Apple TV v attendance thing, I have a loose, largely unjustified sense that there's a free-floating audience willing to show up on many random nights. Which is to say, I'm not sure about the extent of the overlap between the half-interested fan, whether a six-game a season person or a local who shows up to "sportz" because they like them, and someone willing to actually sign up for an MLS TV package (full disclosure, like me) just because he/she/they want(s) to watch one team's worth of games. Going the other way, whether I buy into the "third-world ambience" thing (and I work down there, so I see it often), plenty of people do. And you're not wrong about that pushing more people to TV - or, quite possibly, nothing. Will be interesting to see.
As always, thanks for reading! And those are worthwhile lines of thought.